social trends in australia and implications for church life anglican apostolic assemblies of god...
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Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life
AnglicanApostolicAssemblies of GodBaptistBrethrenCatholicChristian Missionary AllianceChristian City ChurchCOC AustraliaCongregationalCRC Churches InternationalChurch of the NazareneChurches of ChristFour Square GospelLutheranPresbyterianChristian Reformed ChurchesSalvation ArmySeventh-day AdventistUniting ChurchVineyard FellowshipWorldwide Church of Godand Independentcongregations, House churches and otherChristian communites.
National Church Life Survey400 000 attenders7000 local churches10 000 leaders
More than 22 denominations and movements including:
NCLS Researchwww.ncls.org.au
Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life
NCLS Research
six categories
population structure
one key trend:
Australia’s population is ageing as it is growing
evidence?
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1921
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1931
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1941
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1951
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1961
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1971
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1981
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
1991
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
2001
Source: ABS 2008a
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
2011 (projected)
Source: ABS 2008b
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
Females
Males
2021 (projected)
Source: ABS 2008b
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
2031 (projected)
Source: ABS 2008b
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
2041 (projected)
Source: ABS 2008b
1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over
Ag
e
Number of Persons
2051 (projected)
Source: ABS 2008b
implications
• The elderly will make up an increasing proportion of the population
• BUT there will still be a numeric increase in the number of children and adults in their middle years
education
one key trend:
Australia’s population is increasingly well educated
evidence?
education by generation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% Yr 11 and below
Yr 12
Higher
1896-1926
“Oldest Generation”
1927-1946 1947-1966 1967-1986
“Lucky Generation” “Baby Boomers” “Generation X and Y”
Over 80 60-79 40-59 20-39
YOB
ABS label
2006 age
Source: ABS 2009
implications
• Increasingly well educated ministry staff will need to be alert to needs of less educated aged congregations
• Changing needs and expectations placed on teaching and learning situations from younger generations
employment and income
one key trend:
Australian women are working more
evidence?• 53% of all women 15+ employed in 2006
(up from 40% in 1976)
• Small rise in women working full-time (29% up from 26% in 1976) but big rise in part-time employment: 24% of all women work part-time (up from 14% in 1976)
Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007
time use by life cycle stage
Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007
time use by life cycle stage
Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007
time use by life cycle stage
Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007
time use by life cycle stage
Mums with kids under 5 work an AVERAGE of over 70 hours per
week
implications• Young mums are working really hard
• Do you target women as the volunteers with ‘available time’?
• Young dads spend lots of time at work
• Does church contribute to quality family time?
households and families
one key trend:
Families are forming and re-forming increasingly flexibly
evidence?
families with children
Only two thirds of all children live in
a ‘traditional’ family
Source: ABS 2006a
• Decline in marriage rates and rise in co-habitation rates
• 76% of all marriages in 2006 were preceded by co-habitation
• Nearly 40% of all co-habitations begun since 1990 end in separation within 5 years (compared to approx. 9% of marriages in the same period)
• Overall decline in the proportion of adults living with a partner
• Dramatic increase in ex-nuptial births: 33% of all children in 2006 (up from 3-4% in the 1960s)
• BUT proportion of birth certificates with father’s name increased from 58% in 1980 to 90% in 2006 (related to co-habitation)
Source: AIFS 2008
implications• Activities will need to be open to non-traditional family
structures
• Welcoming people with non-traditional families into church will be an increasingly significant social issue
• Stable Christian marriages and families can provide valuable support networks and role models
housing
one key trend:
New arrivals in your local area are most likely to be from other parts of
your state
evidence?
residential mobility after 5 years
51%
11%
20%
4%
8%
Not stated: 6%
At least three of every ten people in our communities has
arrived in the last five years from outside the
local area.
Source: ABS 2006a
implications• Opportunities to welcome
• Opportunities to provide support and local knowledge
culture and religion
two key trends:
There is an increasing diversity of source countries in migration to Australia
There has been a massive rise in the number of Australians selecting ‘no religion’
on their Census forms
evidence?
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West EuropeSouthern and Eastern
Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 1996
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West EuropeSouthern and Eastern
Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 1997
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West EuropeSouthern and Eastern
Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 1998
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 1999
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2000
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2001
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2002
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2003
Source: ABS 2008c
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2004
Source: ABS 2008c
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2005
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2006
Source: ABS 2008a
Other Oceania
United Kingdom
Other North-West Europe
Southern and Eastern Europe
North Africa and Middle East
South-East Asia
North-East Asia
Southern and Central Asia
Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa
country of birth 2007
Source: ABS 2008a
It’s not the same
everywhere!
religious affiliation
Source: ABS 2006b
religious affiliation
Source: ABS 2006b
implications• Diversity makes it increasingly problematic
to try to reach ethnic groups on-by-one
• Increasing numbers of unchurched white Australians who feel no religious affiliation
• There’s really only very small numbers of people following non-Christian religions in Australia
questions?
references• Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006a) Australian Basic Community Profile, Catalogue number
2001.0; www.abs.gov.au
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006b) Year Book Australia, Catalogue number 1301.0; www.abs.gov.au
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008a) Australian Historical Population Statistics, Catalogue number 3105.0.65.001; www.abs.gov.au
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008b) Population Projections, Australia, Catalogue number 3222.0 ; www.abs.gov.au
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) A Picture of the Nation, Catalogue number 2070.0; www.abs.gov.au
• Australian Institute of Family Studies (2007) A snapshot of how Australian families spend their time; www.aifs.gov.au
• Australian Institute of Family Studies (2008) Snapshots of family relationships; www.aifs.gov.au
Thank you
NCLS Research
Capital City Visits, Winter 2009
contact: [email protected] or (02) 8267 4394