Social Vulnerability Datasets through the OpenQuake Platform and Description of a Case-Scenario of Integrated Risk and Resilience using OpenQuake Tools.

Dr. Christopher G. Burton24-29 August, 2014 – 2ECEES, Istanbul

Integrated Risk Modelling in OpenQuake

Physical Seismic Risk Social Vulnerability Integrated Risk

Burton and Silva 2014

Carreño et al. 2012

How to represent concepts of social vulnerability and integrated risk?

Data

Khazai et al. 2014

Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Socio-Economic Database

Statistical Approach

Expert Opinion Approach

CorrelationsAnalysis

Completeness

Consultation

Pre-PCA data Processing

Principal Components Analysis

Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Power et al. 2014

Linking Users to the Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Data Analysis

Power et al. 2014

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

Construction

manufacturing n.e.c.

machinery and equipment

electrical and optical equipment

wood and wood products

leather and leather products

textiles and wearing apparel

food and tobacco

pulp, paper and paper products

rubber and plastic products

basic metals and metal products

non-metallic mineral products

chemical products

transport equipment

Electricity, gas and water supply

refined petroleum products

Capital dependency Labour Dependency Electricity Dependency Water Dependency

Transportation Dependency Supply Dependency Demand Dependency

0,529

0,528

0,424

0,408

0,357

0,331

0,310

0,310

0,298

0,295

0,190

0,264

0,291

0,289

0,290

0,255

Industrial Vulnerability Index IVIs

Illustration of Sector-specific Application: Vulnerability of industrial sectors to indirect losses in Baden Wuerttemberg, Germany. Adapted from Khazai et al.( 2011)

Power et al. 2014

8

CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University

How can we operationalize concepts of social vulnerability and integrated

risk?

Open-Source Tool Development

Workflow: Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit

Step 1. Theoretical framework: basis for definition indicator selection, weighting, and aggregation.

Step 2. Selection of indicators

Step 3. Data Standardization/Normalization

Step 4. Multivariate analysis (e.g. PCA or Reliability/Item Analysis)

Step 5. Weighting and aggregation (based on statistical models or participatory approaches)

Step 6. Robustness and sensitivity (uncertainty and sensitivity analysis)

Step 7. Links to other variables (e.g. physical risk estimates, external validation metrics)

Step 8. Presentation and dissemination

PopulationPopulation EconomyEconomy Infrastructure

Infrastructure

I1I1

I2I2

I3I3

I4I4

I4I4

I6I6

I7I7

I9I9

I8I8

IndexIndex

I1Educatio

n

I1Educatio

n

I4Gender

I4Gender

I2AgeI2Age

I6Income

I6Income

I5HealthI5

Health

I3Disabilit

y

I3Disabilit

y

IndexIndex

Putting it all Together: Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit

Data Inputs Weighting and Aggregation

Physical Risk Integration Visualization & MappingKhazai et al. 2014

14

CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University

How can we focus on using vulnerability and integrated risk assessment as a component for informing decision making?

Use Case on Disaster Resilience

Title of slide image can go here

Localize

Self-evaluation Tool for Earthquake Resilience

Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

Resilience Management Framework

Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

Title of slide image can go hereAnhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

Yes

Strong

Excellent

Good

Weak

NoAnhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

City Level

Sub-City Level

Awareness &

Advocacy

Social Capacity

Legal and Institutional

Planning and Regulation

Critical Infrastructure and Services

Emergency Preparedness &

Response

Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

Identifying the gaps: What areas can be Improved?

Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

The Road Ahead

‣ Improvements to GIS-based and web-mapping tools

‣ Ability to account for sensitivities and uncertainties in social vulnerability model development

‣ Improvement of qualitative tools for “bottom-up” analysis

‣ Development of individual use-cases and accompanying methodologies

Dr. Christopher G. Burtonchristopher.burton@globalquakemodel.org+39-0382-5169898

Dr. Bijan Khazaikhazai@kit.eduTel.: +49 -721-608 44442

Questions

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org