society of actuaries international experience study
DESCRIPTION
Society Of Actuaries International Experience Study. Bill Horbatt Chair, SOA IESWG. Background on International Experience Study. IES is a Joint Venture. SOA Research Department IAA Mortality Working Group Corporate sponsors SOA International Section Local Actuarial Associations. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Society Of ActuariesInternational Experience Study
Bill Horbatt
Chair, SOA IESWG
Background on
International Experience Study
IES is a Joint Venture
• SOA Research Department• IAA Mortality Working Group• Corporate sponsors• SOA International Section• Local Actuarial Associations
IES Outreach Effort
• No Cost to participating companies
• SOA confidentially compiles data
• Local actuaries supervision
• SOA / IAA expert advice
Finances
Contributions
Company EU ISC SOA
Finances
Expenses
Tool Travel
Finances
• MOST IMPORTANT
– Volunteer Time!– Over 50 companies have participated– Over 1,000 hours invested
Results
International Experience Study
Results
• Argentina**• Caribbean*• Estonia• Poland**• Philippines• Vietnam
* sample **small sample
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Argentina Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Caribbean Exposure
MaleFemale
Issue Age
Polic
y Ye
ars
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Estonia Exposure
MaleFemale
Issue Age
Polic
y Ye
ars
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Philippines Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Poland Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Vietnam Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
Results - Caution
• All results are tentative• Limited editing and quality analysis• Early experience
– Limited staff experience– New System controls will be prospective
Results
Policy Persistency
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Lapse Rates
ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam
Policy Duration
Laps
e Ra
te
Results
Actual to Tabular Mortality
10 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 670%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Actual vs. Expected Mortality
ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam
Issue Age
% o
f 197
7-80
SO
A Se
lect
& U
ltim
ate
Results
Additional Results
• Caribbean
0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Caribbean Exposure
Insurance
Annuity
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Caribbean Actual to Tabular Mortality
Insurance
Annuity
Issue Age
% C
IA 1
986-
92
Insurance A/T Annuity A/T 10 Year Persistency0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Caribbean Trend from 2002-4 to 2005-7
2002 to 2004
2005 to 2007
Status
• Experience Study Tool 2.0 released• Hong Kong Actuarial Society
– Using SOA Tool
• Other countries - incomplete– Brazil– Guatemala
• Ronora Stryker, Research Actuary, SOA– [email protected]
• Bill Horbatt, Chair SOA IESWG– [email protected]
• Martin Stevenson, Chair IAA MWG– [email protected]
Contact Details