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TRANSCRIPT
OECD FORESIGHT FORUM 2011
Socio-Economic Aspect of Mobile Application
in Japan
October 26, 2011
Dr. Makoto Yokozawa
Nomura Research Institute
Professor of Collaborative Research Unit,
MOIS Labo., Kyoto University
http://www.mois.asia/
.
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
AGENDA
• Ubiquity and Mobile Applications
• Mobile Applications as the Gateway to ICT Innovation
Current Status and Issues of Mobile Application
• Risk management and Resilience – APEC 2011 DSG Seminar Output
The “311” Quake-Tsunami-Nuclear Disaster
• Bandwidth Governance
• Frequency Management Policy to Enlarge Capacity for Mobile Communication
• NFC Applications and Electronic Money Systems in Japan
Numbers and Trends in Mobile Applications in Japan
• Open Government
• Participative Mobile Applications, Games and Social Medias
Cloud and Crowd, Left and Right … Ubiquity and Innovation
• Policy Scope in Japan
• Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications
Conclusion
1
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ubiquity and Mobile Applications, A DAY IN THE NETWORK LIFE
2
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2005 Networked Life Scenes
A Day in the Network
Life, from Morning to
Midnight, Clockwise
Human Centered
Network Connection
360 degree around,
24hours
Ubiquitous Network
Society and Structural
Reform in Business and
Industry
“Life and Business with
ICTs, everywhere,
everyone, 24hr
365days”
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mobile Applications are the Gateway to ICT Innovation
Safety and Reliability
Aging Society Disaster
Readiness and Recovery
Green and Sustainability
Healthcare and Medicare
Innovation and Growth
Employment Education
3
Ubiquitous Mobile Applications,
Everyone, Everywhere and Everytime
SOCIAL ISSUES
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Damaged by 311 TUSNAMI
www.iwate-np.co.jp
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
DISASTER READINESS
IN ICT
DISASTER READINESS
BY ICT
FORECASTING DISASTER
MONITORING NATURE
ANALYSING DATA
SECURING INFRA
QUICK RESPONSE
TRANSPARENCY
APEC TEL44 DSG OUTPUT FROM DISASTER MANAGEMENT
SEMINAR,
MODERATOR’S NOTE … 3 PHASES AND “IN ICT/BY ICT”
7
RISK MITIGATION
IN ICT
RISK MITIGATION
BY ICT
DESCISION MAKING
ALERT SYSYTEM
QUICK RESPONSE
KNOWLEDGE SHARING
VISUALIZATION IN
MANAGEMENT
DISTRIBUTED DATA CENTER
RESILIENCE
IN ICT
RESILIENCE
BY ICT
RESILIENCE BY DESIGN
COMMUNICATION
PLANNING
STANDARDIZATION
REDUNDANCY
COMMUNICATION
The 10m High Anti-Tsunami Wall was
not Sufficient.
EMERGENCY
ALERT!
PREPARE FOR
THE SHOCK
Facebook from
Refuge by
Mobile
READINESS RISK MITIGATION RESILIENCE
Google Crisis Response
Road Closure Map
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Damages in Mobile Communication at 311 Disaster
NTT DocoMo
au E-mobile Willcom
Softbank
6,720
3,680 3,786
704
13,760
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000 15000
~ ~
Stations
29,000 Base Stations of 4 Operators Lost Functionality
Peak Numbers of Lost Stations of Each Operator
Damages in Base Stations
NTT DoCoMo
Voice
NTT DoCoMo
Data
au
Voice
au
Data
Softbank
Voice
Softbank
Data
%
Congestion
70-95% of inbound/outbound Voice calls was suppressed
Maximum Suppression Rate (in Red) of Each Operator
90%
30%
95%
0%
70%
0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
NTT DoCoMo transmission
facilities in Iwate
(Source NTT DoCoMo)
Packet Data Communication
was not affected so much
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Traffic Shaping for Mobile Users
by Major Mobile Operators in Japan
Congestions are Not Only in the Disastrous Areas
Operator
Shaping Criteria
Shaping
Duration
Date
Started
KDDI(au)Smartphones
300Million Packets/Consecutive 3 Days =122MB/Day
24 hours Oct.1, 2011
KDDI(au)
Feature Phones
(non-smart)
300Million Packets/Month =12MB/Day
One Month
(21:00-25:00) Oct.1,2008
E mobile
300Million Packets/Day =366MB/Day
One Day
(21:00-26:00) Oct.24,2010
Softbank Mobile
Smartphones
1000Million Packets/Month =41MB/Day One Month
Dec. 1, 2009
Softbank Mobile
Feature Phones
(non-smart)
Feature (Non-Smart) Phones
300Million Packets/Month =12MB/Day One Month
Dec. 1, 2009
NTT DoCoMo 3G
300Million Packets/Consecutive 3 Days =122MB/Day
24 hours Oct. 1, 2009
NTT DoCoMo LTE
300Million Packets/Consecutive 3 Days =122MB/Day
(7GB/Month from Oct 2012)
24 hours
(One Month)
Dec.24,2010
(Oct.1,2012)
(planned)
0
50
100
150
200
250
JUN2011 SEP2011
16 19
166 184
Downlink Uplink
Average Monthly Traffic per User
MB/User/Month
Quarterly Traffic Growth 13.2%
(64% per Year)
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Growth in Smartphone Market in Japan
10
スマートフォンの普及状 況
【出典】 (株)MM総研 「国内携帯電話およびスマートフォンの市場規模予測」
スマートフォン販売台数は、 2015年度には2,030万台に達し、携帯電話販売台数に占める販売台数比率 は54.6%になると予測されている。
スマートフォンの契約数は、 2015年度には4,760万件に拡大し、携帯電話端末の契約数※に占めるスマートフォンの契約率 は40%に達すると予測されている。
※ 通信カード・通信モジュール契約数を除く
217万台
386万台
660万台
1,050万台
1,530万台
1,840万台
2,030万台
2009年度のスマートフォン販売台数は、iPhoneの好調等により217万台に。
2010年以降、Android搭載機が相次いで発売されてからは普及がさらに加速。
3
Forecasted Sales of Smartphone
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales (Million Sets)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Subscriptions
LTE/WiMax
Smartphones
Digital TV Tuner
NFC Payment by
Smartphones
Game Phones
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
NFC Mobile Applications in Japan
11
Urban Transportation
Airline Boarding
Mobile Payments
Loyalty Programs
Personalized Marketing
Wallets in Cellphone
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Frequency Re-organization Action Plan 2011
700/900MHz Bands to be Re-Organized for Mobile Communications
710 715 725 730 770 806 815 830 845 860 875 890
915 950 958
820 840 860 880 900 920 940 800 760 960 740 720
(MHz)
710
MCA MCA ITS DTV RFID
780
KDDI(au)
NTT DoCoMo
FPU / Radio Microphone
アナログ アナログ
Voice
STL/TTL
Radio Microphones
2
With use of GHz Bands,
300MHz bandwidth in 2015 and 1500MHz bandwidth in 2020 are Planned
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cloud and Crowd as Mobile Applications
13
Social Medias on the Clound Computing
Wisdom of the Crowd
Reliability Increase Rating
of Information Sources
At 311 Disaster
(Source:NR, 2011I)
Public TV News
Web Portal Sites
Social Medias
University and
Research Institute
Governments
Commercial
Broadcasting
Newspaper
Challenges :The use of SNS by public agencies
(Advantage)
The use of Twitter allows to…
provide information directly to large
number of people instantly.
•Breaking news
•Disaster information
Distribute information through PC
or mobile devices
•No need for special equipments
(Risk )
Spoofing eventually distorting the real information (It’s important to reach to the accurate primary
information. )
The government created a guideline(April 5,2011 ) & mechanism to verify the authenticity of the public agency’s Twitter account.
After the earthquake (3/11), greater number of governmental
agencies and public institutions actively use SNS to distribute
public information including breaking news and disaster
information.
94
101
106108
113
121
148
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
22年10月
11月
12月
23年1月
2月
3月(震災前)
4月4日現在
行政機関のツイッターアカウント数の推移
国・地方公共団体等のTwitterアカウント数の推移
(経済産業省調べ)
Transition of the number of public agency’s Twitter account
(2010) Oct. Nov. Dec. (2011)Jan. Feb. Mar.10th Apr
After 3.11
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Smartphone Application Prize 2011 for Energy Saving
Encourage Developers for Application
Foster Energy Saving Mindset of Consumers by Using Smartphone Application
Usability Prize Functionality
Prize and
Idea Prize
Design Prize
Electricity Saving Meter Electricity Usage Widget Blackout Finder
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
CONCLUSIONS
Basic Policy Scope in Japan
Mobile Communication and its application will be one of the new source for the growth
Focusing on Strategy to promote the readiness of infrastructure
Also Focusing on Strategy to foster innovative applications for new life and business styles
Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications
Safety, Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications is vital for business creation
Robustness as a Critical Infrastructure of the Society needs Long Term Frequency Management
Bandwidth and Capacity needs to be Improved by Next Generation Technology
Social and Economic Factor of Mobile Applications
Disaster Management and Quick Recovery of the Community by Mobile Application
New Innovation Tools for Business, such as Personalized Marketing by NFC, Contents Delivery Platforms and the Energy Saving Application
Open Government and Participative Business and Community
16
Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 17