V. Paccagnan and M. Turvani

University IUAV of Venice

September 2008

Socio- Economic Scenarios for Venice and its Lagoon:

Issues of Sustainability

Presentation objectives

Provide a macro-economic picture of the Veneto region and Venice province, to understand the socio-economic trends in the area

Describe scenarios elaborated for the city of Venice, taking into account recent studies and planning documents

Understand how these scenarios interact with recent socio-economic trends

Presentation outline

The economic analysis in the WFDVenice and the Veneto Region: an

overviewSocio- economics scenarios From vision to action: the planning

process and outcomesCurrent socio-economic trends vs

scenarioSustainability? Interplay between global

and local issues

The economic analysis in the WFDThe WFD introduces the economic analysis in water

resource management and planning, with three purposes:economic analysis of water useseconomic assessment of potential measures for reaching

good water statusassessment of the recovery of the costs of water

services In particular, the economic analysis of water uses

should address the following questions:What is the economic significance of water in the Venice

lagoon? What are the key economic drivers influencing pressures

and water uses? How will these economic drivers evolve over time, and

how will they influence pressures? How will water demand and supply evolve over time, and which problems it is likely to cause?

We now start to address these issues…

Venice and the Veneto Region: an overview

Veneto Region

One of the most lively areas from the economic point of you (“locomotiva d’Italia”)Growth rate above national average since late 1980s,

due to lira devaluation (export led economy) and very low unemployment rates

Mainly traditional manufacturing industriesFood, textile, wood, building and mechanicalDelocalisation in the last decade in Eastern Europe to face

competition from Eastern countries and Asia (price vs. quality) Services are less developed with respect to other

regionsLack of infrastructure

Since 2000, the regional economy has experienced a slow down, due to the changing international and domestic demandOnly building and tourism sectors show positive

performances

Some economic figuresEvolution of GDP in Veneto and Italy (milions euro at 1995 prices)

1980 1990 2000 2004

Absolut Value

Absolut Value

Average yearly growth rate

Absolut Value Average yearly growth rate

Absolut Value

Average yearly growth rate

Veneto 57,540 74,788 2.6 94,153 2,3 95,787 0,4

Italy 692,772 866,555 2.2 1,015,076 1,6 1,052,308 0,9

Veneto/Italy % 8.3 8.6 9.3 9.1

GDP division among productive sectors (at constant prices) in Veneto and Italy %

Veneto 1980 1990 2000 2004 Italy 1980 1990 2000 2004

Agriculture 4.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 4.2 3.1 3.1 3.0

Industry 30.2 29.9 30.2 28.3 27.5 24.7 23.9 22.7

Building sector 6.1 6.3 5.3 6.0 6.6 5.8 5.0 5.3

Commerce 24.4 23.7 25.7 25.9 23.4 23.7 25.1 25,3

Financial services

19.1 21.9 21.8 22.7 19.0 23.3 24.7 25.1

Other services 15.3 14.7 13.6 13.8 19.3 19.4 18.2 18.6

Source: Istat

Some economic figures / 2Employment breakdown among productive sectors in Veneto and Italy %

Veneto 1980 1990 2000 2004 Italy 1980 2004

Agriculture 12.2 8.1 5.1 4.5 13.3 5.2

Industry 35.4 32.7 30.9 29.7 28.8 21.3

Building sector 7.4 7.1 6.9 7.9 7.7 7.3

Commerce 23.1 25.1 26.8 26.6 24.0 26.7

Financial services 4.6 8.1 10.5 11.8 5.3 14.1

Other services 17.3 18.9 19.8 19.5 20.9 25.4

Source: Istat

GDP changes (%)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Industry - 2.3 - 1.6 - 1,8 2,8 - 1,0

Building sector 4.4 11.3 6,8 - 2,3 2,8

Commerce and Tourism 2.8 - 4.5 4.7 5.5 2.2

Business services 2.7 0.7 3.6 - 0.6 - 0.5

GDP 0.8 - 1.2 1.4 2.3 - 0.8

GDP per capita 0.6 - 1.6 0.1 0.9 - 1.8

Source: Banca d’Italia 2006

Venice province economy

44 municipalities, but the city of Venice accounts for 33.5% of the total population and 44.6% of the total number of employees

In the Venice province some sectors with high technological development are present:Chemical industryAereonautical industryNaval dockyard

Employment rates in the different sectors:Agriculture: >10% in some municipalities at the district

boundaries Industry: > 50% in the Brenta river areaTourism: 10-20% in the coastal area Public sector: > 15% in larger town (23% in Venice)

Employment trends from 1980sDecrease of jobs in industry (chemical and glass works) -30% textilePositive rates in mechanical, building and glass sector

Some economic figuresNumber of firms in the Venice province and break down in economic sectors

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Industry 7491 7512 7418 7402 7302 Building sector 8240 8569 8924 9006 9236 Commerce 17822 17674 17609 17417 17207 Tourism activities 5166 5211 5320 5289 5365 Transport 3233 3217 3197 3116 3104 Finance 975 1003 1018 972 940 Other business services 10759 11536 12671 13503 14035 School 147 171 185 196 213 Health Services 2177 2307 2346 2433 2454 Other services 3054 3098 3234 3223 3208 Firms 59064 60298 61922 62557 63064 Source: Istat

Employment per sector of activity (2006)

Sector Employees % Agricolture 13,000 3.7% Industry 102,287 29.0% Of which: building sector 31,783 9.0% Services 236,732 67.2% Total 352,148 100.0% Source: Istat

The districts in the Venice areaArtistic glass in Murano

Firms: 175 production; ~80 commercial; ~ 60 prod.+comm.

Export: 50% of the productionNaval dockyard

450 firms and 1,300 employeesTourism district of the Venice-Treviso-

Vicenza-Rovigo provincesCultural district

300 institutions and 200 firms Shoe and leather district (Brenta river)

~ 280 firms and ~ 6,000 employees

The economy of the city of Venice

Administrative city (region, province, municipality)Tourism city

20ml visitors in the last year, with an increasing trend 3.5ml stay overnight in the hystorical part (8ml presences)High proportion of one-day trippers

Economic figures180€ expense per presence for tourists who stay overnight –

75€ for day trippers1bn € year sales

Industrial cityMain activities: energy production; food; chemical; oil refinery;

mechanical; metallurgical; building materials. the Porto Marghera area is experiencing a deindustrialisation

process, as witnessed by the constant decrease of the number of employees

Tourism trend in downtown

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Some economic figures

Employment in the Venice municipality (2001)

Economic Sector N. of employees

Agriculture and Fishing 760 Public utilities 2214 Chemical and extraction industry 7176 Metallurgic 9203 Other Industry 4983 Building Sector 7144 Commerce 35629 Transport 17346 Finance 22262 Other services 37070 Total 143787 Source: Municipality of Venice

Demographic changesResidents and demographic dynamics in the Venice area between 1951 and 2006

1951 2006 2006 - 1951

Areas v.a. % v.a. % % change Average annual change (‰)

Hystorical town 174,808 55.4 61,611 21.9 -64.8 -18.8

Estuary 44,037 13.9 43,376 15.4 -1.5 -0.3

Main land 96,966 30.7 176,621 62.7 82.1 11.0

Venezia 315,811 100.0 281,608 100.0

Venice Population (1996-2006)

Source: Comune di Venezia

1996 2001 2006

Hystorical city 24.6 24.0 22.9

Isles 3.6 3.5 3.3

Lido-Pellestrina 8.3 8.3 8.1

Favaro 8.4 8.4 8.6

Mestre 32.0 32.4 32.7

Mestre west 12.7 13.2 13.8

Marghera 10.4 10.2 10.6

1996=100 100.0 96.3 94.5

Demographic changesResident population for age classes in Venice

Source: Comune di Venezia

1971 2001

< 14 15 - 64 > 64 Total < 14

15 - 64 > 64 Total

Venice 22,6 66,0 11,4 100,0 10,5 66,0 23,5 100,0

Hystorical centre 9,7 63,5 26,8 100,0

Estuary 10,6 65,2 24,2 100,0

Mainland 10,8 66,7 22,5 100,0

Active and Non active population in Venice (2001)

Source: Comune di Venezia

Active Non active Total Venice 46.7 53.3 100.0

Hystorical centre 44.3 55.7 100.0

Estuary 43.5 56.5 100.0 Mainland 48.0 52.0 100.0

Recent socio-economic scenario

The Rullani and Micelli (1997) study

Assumptions:Riproduction of the material base necessary

to pursue the economic development;Rethinking of urban identity

4 scenarios“intertial growth”“radical environmentalism”“metropolitan integration”“transition to postfordism”

Inertial growthTourism specialisation

Decrease of some services’ provision (esp. PA) Increase of commercial activities linked with

tourismIsolation of the hystorical city and

integration of the mainland with the provinces of Treviso and PadovaConcentration of Administrative functions in

the mainland Closure of the Porto Marghera industry and

setting up of small industries in the area

Radical environmentalismEnvironmental protection becomes a

priority in the agenda settingDevelopment of environmental service

industry (e.g. waste treatment and disposal)

Closing down of the refineryLimitations on waterborne transport in the

lagoonIncrease of number of eco-tourists in the

Venice lagoon

Metropolitan integration & post-fordist cityIntegration of the city of Venice with the

mainlandIncrease the accessibility of the city

MetroPort

Specialisation of the different area of the cityMarghera -> productive siteMestre -> bridge town, with the setting up of

commercial and directional centres Venice -> “immaterial” production

Focus on knowledge economyEnter in global network

The METIS project (Indovina, 2003)

Objectives: to built possible (feasible) scenarios for the Venice lagoonto increase the available information about the

prospective development of the Venice communityMethodology: analysis of recent trends and

scoping interviews.What kind of scenarios are we thinking of?

Likely scenarios: future development of the present conditions, imagined by considering the actual situations and trends (no innovation)Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”

Possible scenarios: future development of present conditions, provided that some element of innovation is introduced. Scenario 1: City of sustainable development; administrative,

university and culture centre Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a resourceScenario 3: Metropolitan city

Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”

Improvement of the accomodation capacity of the hystorical townChange of use for buildings Increase of real estate pricesLimited availability for local residents

Improvement of the accomodation capacity in the mainland (Mestre and Marghera)Actually 60% of tourist presences stay in the mainland

Increase of the public areas occupied by the restaurant30,000 seats current availablePrice increases

Modification of the commercial structure of the cityShops are thought for the tourists and not for the residents

Relocation of other economic activitiesLimited availability of space for commercial activities and

increasing rentPreferences for the Piazzale Roma area

Transfer of administrative activities in the mainland Maintenance of University Escape of the local residents

Scenario 1: City of sustainable development; administrative, university and culture centre

Tourism would continue to be an important part of the economic activities in the hystorical town but will be more compatible with alternative economic activities.

ActionsProgramming turistic arrivals and available

servicesImprove the quality of local handicraft to help it

becoming a substitute for low quality souvenirsImprove the quality in the research and teaching

activities in Venice Universities and boost international relationships

Improve cultural offerStop residential escape by improving service

provision and accessibility

Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a resource

Environmental problems should be considered as an opportunity to increase the knowledge and human capital of the area

ActionsIncrease city openess towards technological

development and new worksIncreasing the coordination of research

activities concerning the Venice lagoonStrenghten of existing research activitiesClean up of the Marghera site

Scenario 3: Metropolitan city

Institutional innovation: consider Venice problems in a wide area perspective, by emphasising the relationships of the hystorical city with the sorrounding environment

Actions:Institution of the metropolitan cityClean up of Marghera siteReusing of former industrial site locationAccessibility and transport

From vision to action: the planning process and outcomes

Planning processes around the Venice Lagoon

Venice municipality: a bunch of planning instrumentsStrategic Plan (2004-2014)Plan for the management of the territory

(under definition)Supra-municipal level: planning

instruments in search of coordinationPlans for Venice, Treviso and Padova districts

(under definition)Regional Territorial Plan (under definition)

Scenario definitionThe Strategic Plan (2004) identifies

several strategic lines, to be developed in parallel in further actionInternational cityCity of Culture City of watersCity of tourismCity of research and innovationCity of logisticsCity of production and services

No specific action is however foreseen in the plan

SP: City of waters

Water as the focal point for the development of the whole territory

Policy actions:Safeguard water systems Boost productive activities which use water as

an input;Use the intervention of the Venice lagoon

safeguard as a mean to incentivate the research and development on these issues;

Improve the mobility on water through the research in new technologies

Rebuilt the cultural identity linked to water

SP: City of tourism

Need to improve the quality of tourism offer and demand

Policy actions:Promote tourism itinerary on the mainland and

in VenicePromote new forms of tourism (sport tourism,

ecotourism) to develop the potentiality of the mainland

Improve knowledge of tourism patterns so as to manage tourist arrivals

Improve logistics

SP: City of production and services

Porto Marghera is interested by a phase of industrial restructuring, where the decline in hystorical industrial production has to be matched with environmental restoration of contaminated sites

Policy actions Revitalise the industrial production

Implement the actions foreseen in the Framework Agreement for Chemical Production (1999-2001- 2005- 2007)

Favour the setting of new industrial activitiesComplete the process of environmental restoration

through contaminated sites clean up (Porto Marghera, S. Giuliano Park, previously a industrial and city landfill)

Favour other kind economic activities different from the industrial ones, so as to favour the handicraft.

Current socio-economic trends vs Scenario

The controversy on fishing activities

Fishing activities in the Venice lagoon can be divided into two categories, the traditional fishing activities (extensive aquaculture and cultivation of soft crab) and the commercial ones (with the introduction of the clam).

Fishing licences:90 traditional fishermen 1,200 professional fishermen

In recent years a conflict emerged between these two categories, since the mechanical fishing of tapes is increasing and this influences negatively the catch of soft crab, because of the impact on ecosystem functioning.

Economic value of fishing activities is increasing

Fish catching in the Venice lagoon and its commercial value

Table 1 – Fish catching in the Venice lagoon in 2007 (quintals) and % variation with respect to 2006

Fish Mollusc Shellfish Venice 18,468 -13 21,417 24.7 5,794 -2.7 Chioggia 83,477 18 25,023 68.5 3,242 20.7 Total Venice 101,945 46,440 9,036 Total Veneto 167,094 11.9 199,735 16.7 13,034 4.2

Source: Bordin (2007)

Table 2 – Commercial value of fish catching in the Venice lagoon in 2007 (thousands of Euro) and % variation with respect to 2006

Fish Mollusc Shellfish Venice 9,286 -3.6 8,566 19.7 5,208 12.1 Chioggia 16,551 4.7 8,393 39.0 2,800 49.5 Total Venice 25,837 16,959 8,008 Total Veneto 33,751 0.6 56,028 17.1 10,292 23.3

Source: Bordin (2007)

Bordin (2007) in The state of Veneto Region, 2006, Unioncamere

Industrial activities

Restructuring of industrial production led by local and global factors

A parallel decrease in the pollution loads entailed by such activities due to slow down and regulation. However, the burden of past contamination has driven the setting up of policy interventions in the last ten years.

Remediation becomes an ‘industry’ of its own The economic structure in the area is

experiencing a transition phase where traditional industrial activities retreat in favour of service activities.

On the whole, the increase in the economic activities and employees has been registered only in the energy, oil and refinery sector, in the building materials and in “other sectors”.

The chemical sector is showing the highest uncertainty for the future.

Economic activities in the Marghera area

(2006) Economic

sector Number of activities

Increase with respect to 2000

Number of employees

Increase with respect to 2000

Energy production

7 +2 579 425

Food 4 -3 128 -594

Building Materials

13 +6 686 +97

Chemical 11 -5 1.954 -1385

Mechanical 45 -1 2.143 -239

Metallurgical 10 = 921 -336

Oil refinery 13 +1 559 +76

Other sectors 258 +72 6302 +2501

Total 361 +72 13272 +545

Source: Own elaborations on data provided by Ufficio di Piano

What future for economic activities?

aluminium, development of new alloys suitable to be employed in the aerospace industry;

shipyards, the acquisitions of the areas devoted to the cruise ship management;

port activities and logistics, with the enlargement of docks in the Marghera area and the

excavation of the canals to the current -10.50m depth to -12m. the port area will be enlarged.

hydrogen application to transport activities. In 2003, the Hydrogen Park has been set up to study and promote the development of the application of fuel cells. Its objectives are the development of an energy generation system (by using the hydrogen) and the application to this technology to a ferry (vaporetto).

energy production, through the storage of biodiesel in the area close to the Enel power plant.

research and technological innovation, through the creation of the VEGA scientific-technological park in 1996.

environmental monitoring and restoration, by cleaning up the contaminated area in Marghera and by managing the contaminated sludge obtained by the Vallone Moranzani dredging.

Policy documents in Marghera: the setting up of ‘remediation as an ‘industry’Framework of voluntary agreement for the Chemical

industry (“Accordo per la Chimica”) –1999 Participants: several Ministers, local authorities (Veneto Region,

Province and Municipality of Venice, Venice Port Authority), the main enterprises and trade unions operating in this area

Objective: to continue industrial production whilst reducing environmental pollution in the Porto Marghera area and adopting the best available technologies in the local polluting industries

Voluntary agreement Porto Marghera “Intesa per Porto Marghera” – 2005Objectives: to complete the cleanup of Porto Marghera site

whilst assuring at the same time the coherence with the planning instruments of the area

It boost the environmental restoration of the area whilst recognising the importance of cleaning current industrial activities (e.g. chemical sector) and promoting the settlement of new green industry

“Protocollo di intesa su Porto Marghera” – 2006 Concerns the Chemical Industry

Master Plan – 2004

It foresees a set of policy measures necessary to attain the objectives stated in the Voluntary Agreement:clean up of the contaminated sites in the Porto Marghera

area;increase of the knowledge base regarding the extent of

contamination;research activities regarding the application of available

technologies on the treatment of contaminated materialsimprovement of landscape.

For what concerns the clean up of contaminated sites, the Plan identifies priority interventions, to be completed by 2014 and other measures for which no sufficient knowledge is available, and that will be carried out afterwards

Port activities: a summary

The area is interested by Port related activities. In 2006, the Port of Venice has transported almost 17 million tonnes of goods: of these, more than 11 millions are related to commercial goods, being the remaining industrial intermediate goods.

The transportation of these goods has produced more than 7,000 transits in the Venice lagoon.

Port activities are highly constrained by the features of the lagoon, such as: the canal depth that limits the transit of big ships; the need to limit the waves (moto ondoso) in the lagoon; the maintenance and cleaning of the lagoon canals, and the consequent problem of the contaminated sediments; the lack of adequate logistic infrastructures.

Port of Venice Figures

Source: Venice Port Authority (2006)

Year Commercial Industrial Oil Total % commercial

1990 4.865 9.190 10.116 24.171 20,2 1992 4.751 8.504 11.252 24.507 19,4 1994 6.142 6.780 9.947 22.869 26,9 1996 7.363 6.445 10.458 24.266 29,7 1998 9.436 5.392 11.913 26.741 34,6 2000 10.305 7.290 10.581 28.176 36,6 2006 14.541 5.033 11.361 30.936 47

In the last 10 years:• +27% of the amount of traffic in the Port of Venice• of this, +65% of commercial traffic

Recent trends:• concentration of the commercial traffic in the Porto Marghera area;• use of Maritime station for the passenger traffic;• use of former industrial area for commercial docks

TourismGeneral patterns

Conflict between the actual tourism development and the desired level of environmental quality

Problem of the quality of tourism demand (one day travellers and excursionist accounts for 60% of the tourist presences)

Benefits for a wide areas but costs concentrated in the hystoric cityCongestionIncrease in prices in the hystorical city and closure of

activities not linked to the tourism activitiesImpact on the environment (waste production, water

pollution, increase of waterborne traffic)Problem of managing tourist demand and shift

towards a high quality provision of touristic attractions

Sustainability? : interplay between global and local issues

Global vs Local scenarios: what room for manouvre?

Price vs quality: what socio-economic consequences across all sectors?

Trend in regulatory action: tightening or loosing?

Trend in institutional developments: which level for which decision? (No Metropolitan)

Trends in demographic and labor markets expected behavioral responses?

Trends in consumer preferences for private and public goods?

Sustainability? Interplay between global and local issuesSectoral sustainability issues and

intersections: coherence or conflict?Tourism and the Lagoon carrying capacity ?Fishing ?Accessibility and the Port?The Chemical production?Culture industry?Science & technology?The University in Venice and in Veneto?The environmental sustainability : a glass

ceiling for the growth of the economy?