Socio-economic scenarios incorporated into the Integrated Assessment Platform and stakeholder integrated research

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and

vulnerability in Europe

Funded under the European CommissionSeventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

For further information contact Marc Gramberger (email: Marc.Gramberger@prospex.com) and kasper Kok (email: Kasper.Kok@wur.nl) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

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Scenarios

…help us to understand the different ways in which the future might develop.

…can be utilised to evaluate and change current thinking and improve decision-making.

… are developed in the CLIMSAVE project to integrate knowledge and enhance solutions-oriented ‘out of the box’ thinking across:

– expertise areas (stakeholders and researchers)– disciplines– a wider range of factors, sectors and actors

… have been developed in the CLIMSAVE project as socio-economic scenarios using the Story-And-Simulation (SAS) approach, separate from Climate Change projections.

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Story-And-Simulation approach

Qualitative stories developed by stakeholders are iteratively linked to quantitative models.

Socio-economic scenarios are developed during stakeholder workshops using expert-determined methods and guided by professional facilitators.

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Socio-economic scenarios

• Sketch a number of credible future outlooks of socio-economic developments, and their potential effects on climate change adaptation.

• Were developed together with stakeholders through a series of workshops:– 3 workshops on the European level with a carefully defined

cross-European selection of stakeholders;– 3 workshops on a regional level with Scotland as the case

study and with a carefully defined cross-selection of Scottish stakeholders;

– 1 shared learning and exchange session between the European and Scottish levels.

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CLIMSAVE stakeholder workshops

Workshop Date Participants (number)

Main aims

Europe – Workshop 1 10 - 12 May 2011 Bruges, Belgium

19 1. Qualitative scenario development 2. Quantification of key variables

Europe – Workshop 2 6 - 8 February 2012 Prague, Czech Republic

11 1. Finalisation of storylines 2. Review quantitative variables 3. Identify adaptation options

Europe – Workshop 3 3 - 4 December 2012 Edinburgh, UK

12

1. Interacting with the Integrated Assessment Platform 2. Developing and testing adaptation options and strategies 3. Assess and discuss multi-scale robustness of options (jointly done with participants from the Scottish case)

Scotland – Workshop 1 27 - 28 June 2011 Edinburgh, UK

24 1. Qualitative scenario development 2. Quantification of key variables

Scotland – Workshop 2 27 - 28 February 2012 Edinburgh, UK

19 1. Finalisation of storylines 2. Review quantitative variables 3. Identify adaptation options

Scotland – Workshop 3 3 - 4 December 2012 Edinburgh, UK

15

1. Interacting with the Integrated Assessment Platform 2. Developing and testing adaptation options and strategies 3. Assess and discuss multi-scale robustness of options (jointly done with participants from the European case)

Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation research. Climatic Change (under review).

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Stakeholder Integrated Research

Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation research. Climatic Change (under review).

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Stakeholder Integrated Research (2)

• Results in CLIMSAVE:

– Developing qualitative scenarios in the form of stories enables developing valuable results in a participatory process involving a broad range of stakeholders from different backgrounds, expertise and professions;

– The qualitative scenarios are an excellent basis to stimulate discussion, shared learning and ultimately identification of solutions to climate change adaptation challenges; and

– Stakeholders quantify the resulting stories, which serve as an important input for the modelling in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform, bringing together quantitative projections and qualitative storylines.

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European CLIMSAVE scenarios

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Scottish CLIMSAVE scenarios

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Results: Stories

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Results: Dynamics and graphs

Cognitive Map – We are the World scenario

Dynamics for GDP – Should I Stay or should I Go scenario

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Results: Model parameter estimates

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Results: Incorporation in the IA Platform

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Results: Robust adaptation options

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Stakeholder satisfaction

• Stakeholders generally agreed that the scenario-building process as a whole was useful for developing climate change adaptation strategies:

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Stakeholder satisfaction (2)

• Across all three workshops the professional facilitation was very positively evaluated by both European as well as Scottish stakeholders:

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Recommendations

• Stakeholder Integrated Research is able to tackle challenges for stakeholder involvement in scientific research:– Enables a very close link between stakeholder contribution and

research through participatory integration of stakeholders in the research process;

– Provides successful identification and selection of stakeholders;– Enables stakeholders to provide substantial insights and useful

knowledge and perspective relevant to the scientific endeavor through the design and professional facilitation of the engagement process; and

– Enables to maintain stakeholder interest during the entire engagement process.

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Recommendations (results)

• The Story-And-Simulation approach was largely successfully implemented.

• Stories remain a crucial product.

• Additional products were highly complementary and therefore useful.

• Most adaptation options were related to natural and manufactured capital.