April 30—May 4, 2012

Sunspot, New Mexico

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Solar Origins of Space Weather and Space Climate: 26th International

NSO/Sac Peak Workshop

Connec ng

the Interior to

the Corona

AGENDA AND ABSTRACTS WORKSHOP # 26

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26th International NSO/SP Workshop

Solar Origins of Space Weather and Space Climate: Connecting the Interior to the Corona

April 30 – May 4, 2012

Sunspot, New Mexico USA Scientific Organizing Committee

Doug Biesecker (NOAA, Boulder, CO)

Carl Henney (AFRL, Albuquerque, NM)

Dana Longcope (Montana State University, Bozeman, MT)

Janet Luhmann (Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, CA)

Sara Martin (Helio Research, La Crescenta, CA)

Sami Solanki (MPI for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany)

Organizers:

Irene González-Hernández (National Solar Observatory, Tucson - Co-Chair)

Rudi Komm (National Solar Observatory, Tucson - Co-Chair)

Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, Sunspot)

Frank Hill (National Solar Observatory, Tucson) Local Organizing Committee

Rex Hunter (National Solar Observatory) Geoff Roberts (National Solar Observatory) Lou Ann Gregory (National Solar Observatory) Jackie Diehl (National Solar Observatory)

Sponsors

National Solar Observatory NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences

Air Force Office of Space Research AAS Solar Physics Division

(Cover artwork courtesy of Han Uitenbroek, AURA/NSO)

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Agenda Synopsis

Monday 30th April: Sunspot Community Center 17:00‐19:30 Registration and Reception

Tuesday 1st May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30-9:00 Breakfast 9:00 – 9:10 Opening Remarks Session 1: Understanding the Solar Cycle: Predicting the long term behavior of the Sun 9:10-9:40 Solar‐Cycle Prediction from Dynamo and Surface Observations, (Invited) Andrés Muñoz‐Jaramillo

9:40-10:00 Implementation of Ensemble Kalman Filter into Dynamo Models for Prediction of Solar Cycles, Irina Kitiashvili

10:00-10:20 Use of Coronal Fe XIV Observations to Predict Solar‐Cycle Activity, Richard Altrock 10:20-10:50 Coffee Break 10:50‐11:20 Subsurface Observations of the Solar Cycle, (Invited) Rachel Howe 11:20‐11:40 Migration and extension of solar active longitudinal zones, András Ludmány, N. Gyenge, N., T. Baranyi

11:40‐12:00 An Early Prediction for the Amplitude of the Solar Cycle 25, Javaraiah Javaraiah 12:00‐13:30 Lunch 13:30‐13:50 Reconciling Group and International Sunspot Numbers, Edward Cliver, Leif Svalgaard

Session 2: Active Region Emergence: how, when, where? 13:50-14:20 Helioseismic Observation of Emerging Active Regions, (Invited) Junwei Zhao 14:20‐14:40 Numerical Simulation of a Full Active Region Live‐Cycle, Matthias Rempel, M. Cheung

14:40-15:00 A Search for Pre‐Emergence Helioseismic Signatures of Active Regions, Graham Barnes, A.C. Birch, K.D. Leka, D.C. Braun, B. Javornik, T. Dunn, and I. González Hernández

15:00-15:20 New Emerging Flux and Interconnecting Loops, Jie Chen

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Notes

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15:20-15:50 Coffee Break 15:50-16:10 Magnetically Buoyant Loops in a Convective Dynamo Simulation, Nicholas Nelson, Benjamin P. Brown, A. Sacha Brun, Mark. S. Miesch, Juri Toomre

16:10-16:30 Temporal Variation of Subsurface Flows in Active Regions, K. Jain, S. Tripathy, R.W. Komm, I. González-Hernández, F. Hill and D. Haber

16:30-1700 Far‐side Observations of Active Regions, (Invited) Doug Braun 18:00 Community BBQ (Sunspot Community Center)

Wednesday, 2nd May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30‐8:45 Breakfast 8:45 -9:20 (Keynote) How are Space Weather and Space Climate related to Solar Phenomena, Michael Hesse, Antti Pulkkinen, Yihua Zheng, Masha Kuznetsova

Session 3: The Role of Surface Magnetic Activity in Space Weather and Space Climate 9:20-9:50 The Flux Transport Model and its Relevance to Space Weather and Climate, (Invited) Anthony Yeates

9:50-10:10 The Sub‐Surface Structure of a Large Sample of Active Regions, Charles Baldner, Richard S. Bogart, Sarbani Basu

10:10‐10:20 Workshop Photo 10:20‐10:50 Coffee Break 10:50‐11:10 Detailed view of Sunspot Group Development, Judit Muraközy, Tunde Baranyi, András Ludmány

11:10-11:40 Magnetograms and their importance for Space Weather and Climate, (Invited) Gordon Petrie 11:40‐12:00 Active region Vector Magnetic Field: Azimuth Ambiguity Solution from Multiline Observations, Veronique Bommier

12:00‐13:00 Lunch 13:00‐14:00 Observatory tour (optional) Session 4: How do Filaments fit into Space Weather? 14:00‐14:30 Links between Filament Channels, Filaments, and CMEs, (Invited) Olga Panasenco

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Notes

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14:30‐14:50 Development of a Complex Active Region Observed at the Dutch Open Telescope, Sara F. Martin, Olga Panasenco, Jingxiu Wang 14:50‐15:10 High‐resolution Observations of a Filament showing Activated Barb, Anand D. Joshi, Nandita Srivastava, Shibu K. Mathew, Sara F. Martin 15:10-15:30 Oscillatory Power observed in Flares and Filaments, Jason Jackiewicz

16:30 Social Excursion White Sands National Monument (Optional , extra charge $10) Visit to White Sands National Park including Picnic (Subject to Weather conditions) Caravan departs from the Sunspot Community Center.

Thursday, 3rd May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30‐9:00 Breakfast Session 5: Space Weather Effects of Solar Flares 9:00‐9:30 Solar Flares and Their Effects on Space Weather, (Invited) Jiong Qiu, Qiang Hu 9:30-9:50 A Study of Connections between Solar Flares and Subsurface Flow Fields of Active Regions, Yu Gao, Junwei Zhao, Hongqi Zhang

9:50‐10:20 Flares and the Forecasting Potential of Subsurface Flows, (Invited) Alysha Reinard, Larisza Krista, Rudi Komm, Frank Hill

10:20‐10:40 Coffee Break 10:40‐11:00 Evolution of Current Helicity Density in NOAA 11158 during X‐Class Flare, Sanjay Gosain 11:00‐11:20 Sunquakes and Two Types of Solar Flares, Alexander Kosovichev 11:20‐11:40 Periodicities in the Occurrence of Solar Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection and Sunspot Area in Solar Cycle 23‐24, Debi Prasad Choudhary, Max Norris 11:40‐12:00 Reduction of total Field in M8 Flare, 13 Mar 2012, William Livingston 12:00‐13:30 Lunch Session 6: CME effects of Space Weather 13:30‐14:00 Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active‐Region Magnetograms, (Invited) David Falconer, Ronald L. Moore, Abdulnasser F. Barghouty, and Igor Khazanov 14:00‐14:30 What properties of CMEs are most important for space weather? (Invited), Nat Gopalswamy

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Notes

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14:30‐14:50 Energetic Relationship between Solar Flares and associated CMEs, and SEPs, Rajmal Jain, Nipa J. Bhatt, Arun K. Awasthi, Sharad C. Tripathi,, Parvaiz Khan

14:50‐15:10 Deflections of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections and the Properties of Associated Solar Energetic Particle Events, Stephen Kahler, S. Akiyama 15:10:15:40 The STEREO mission and its role in Space Weather, (Invited) Paulett Liewer 15:40‐16:10 Coffee Break

Session 7: Coronal Holes and their Role in Space Weather 16:10‐16:40 Coronal Holes and Fast Solar Wind in Space Weather, (Invited) Giuliana de Toma 16:40‐17:00 Temporal Evolution of Coronal Loop Structures, Alexander Pevtsov, R. T. J. McAteer, J. Jackiewicz, B. McNamara

17:00-17:20 Filament and Sigmoid Statistics Gathered by Newly Developed Automated Feature Finding Modules, Piet Martens, Rafal Angryk, Juan Banda, Karthik Ganesan Pillai, Michael Schuh

Friday, 4th May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30‐9:00 Breakfast Session 8: From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather 9:00‐9:30 From predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather, (Invited) Juan Fontenla 9:30‐10:00 Solar Models Used for Operational Space Weather, (Invited) Nick Arge 10:00‐10:20 Space Weather Forecasting with ADAPT and Helioseismic Far‐side Data, Carl J. Henney, C. Nick Arge, Irene González-Hernández, W. Alex Toussaint, Stephen White, Josef Koller, Humberto C. Godinez

10:20‐10:50 Coffee Break 10:50‐11:20 Transition from Model to Tool, (Invited) Victor Pizzo 11:20:11:40 The Role of Synoptic Observations in Space Weather Forecasting, Alexei Pevtsov 11:40‐12:00 Status of the SOLIS, Data Luca Bertello, A. Pevtsov, L. Callahan, B. Harker, J. Harvey, A. Marble, A. Pietarila, R. Toussaint

12:00‐12:10 Closing Remarks Rudi Komm

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Conference Scope

As the impact of space weather and climate on daily life is becoming more important, it is timely

to discuss the latest research on the solar origin of these phenomena. Recent advances in

helioseismology have demonstrated that subsurface dynamics are closely associated with

aspects of solar activity from the long-term timing of the solar cycle to the short-term eruption of

solar flares. The advent of synoptic vector magnetic field measurements is opening up a new

path for research on active regions, flares and CME's. Coronal magnetic field measurements

should become available in the next 5-10 years, supplying another physical constrain on space

weather events.

The conference will include theory, model and observation sessions on the origin of the solar

cycle, solar magnetic features, active region evolution, eruptive events, as well as a discussion

on how to incorporate the research into space weather forecasting tools.

The main goal of this workshop is to bring together experts in different areas of solar physics to

give us a full picture of the origin of solar phenomena that influence space weather and space

climate. We expect to incorporate themes like:

1. Emergence of magnetic field:

* Solar dynamo and prediction of solar cycle

* Active region emergence; how, where and when

2. Evolution of magnetic field:

* AR evolution and related solar activity

* Filaments and flare productivity

* Coronal holes and the fast solar wind

3. From predicting solar activity to forecasting space weather

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ABSTRACTS (Listed by sequence)

Monday 30th April: Sunspot Community Center 17:00‐19:30 Registration and Reception Tuesday 1st May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30-9:00 Breakfast 9:00-9:10 Opening Remarks Session 1: Understanding the Solar Cycle: Predicting the long term

behavior of the Sun 9:10-9:40 Solar‐Cycle Prediction from Dynamo and Surface

Observations (Invited) Andrés Muñoz‐Jaramillo

We will begin discussing the current view of how the solar-cycle operates, its associated timescales and memory, and how, in order to predict the solar cycle, it is not only necessary to understand the physical processes behind the dynamo, but also to be able to make an accurate assessment of magnetic past and present of the Sun. We will then review the different types of observations that can be used for this purpose and finalize with the outstanding issues that need to be resolved and what kind of developments we can expect to see in the coming decade.

9:40-10:00 Implementation of Ensemble Kalman Filter into Dynamo

Models for Prediction of Solar Cycles. Irina Kitiashvili Abstract: Chaotic behavior of the solar cycle is a result of a non-linear oscillatory dynamo process. Direct approaches based on statistical analysis of sunspot data and dynamo models still cannot give a reliable forecast of the solar cycles. The sunspot number data represent the longest series of solar observations, and are used for development and testing of prediction methodologies. However, because the data include unknown errors of measurements it is very important to take into account such uncertainties. In addition, for correct predictions of solar activity it is important to use a physics-based model that can reproduce the basic characteristics of the solar cycle variations. However, our current knowledge of the dynamo mechanisms is quite limited, and the modern MHD dynamo models, while qualitatively reproducing the butterfly diagram and polarity reversal, also include unknown errors. The data assimilation approach widely used in meteorology and other fields allow us to estimate deviations of the model state from observational data, and provide optimal estimates of the model state, make corrections to the model and estimate uncertainties. Sequential corrections of the model capture the uncertainties and allow us to make more precise prediction of

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the future states. For prediction of the solar cycles, we have implemented the Ensemble Kalman Filter, which is an effective method of data assimilation for non-linear systems, to assimilate the sunspot number data series into a mean-field dynamo model. We found that in order to reproduce the principal characteristic of the solar cycles, such as Waldmeyer's relations, it is necessary to include the evolution of magnetic helicity in the dynamo model. We have tested this approach for both recent and early cycles, for which data uncertainties were large. The forecast tests show good agreements for last 10 cycles. I will discuss the current limitations of the prediction method based on the data assimilation approach and future perspectives.

10:00-10:20 Use of Coronal Fe XIV Observations to Predict Solar‐Cycle

Activity Richard Altrock Abstract: The onset of the "Rush to the Poles" of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission is a harbinger of solar maximum. Altrock (2003, Solar Phys. 216, 343) showed that the "Rush" was well-observed in the the Fe XIV corona at the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory prior to the maxima of Cycles 21 to 23. He found that solar maximum in those cycles occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude. These latitudes were 76°, 74° and 78°, respectively, for an average of 76° ± 2°. Furthermore, in the previous three cycles solar maximum occurred when the number of Fe XIV emission regions per day > 0.19 (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 18°, 21° and 21°, for an average of 20° ± 1.7º (somewhat higher than the mean latitude of sunspot area at solar maximum, 14°). Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent "Rush" that is only definable in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6°/yr was found, compared to an average of 9.4 ± 1.7 °/yr in the previous cycles. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5°/yr (an increase did not occur in the previous three cycles). Extending that rate to 76° ± 2° indicates that the solar maximum smoothed sunspot number in the northern hemisphere ALREADY OCCURRED at 2011.6 ± 0.3. Unfortunately, the smoothed sunspot number uses 12-month running means, so the result may not be testable for several more months. Solar maximum may not be detectable in the southern hemisphere. In 1999, persistent Fe XIV coronal emission known as the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) appeared near 70° and began migrating towards the equator at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles until a sudden surge to lower latitudes began. Currently the greatest number of emission regions is at 24°. This indicates that solar maximum is imminent. However, due to the irregular progression of this cycle, making a precise prediction is difficult.

10:20-10:50 Coffee Break

10:50‐11:20 Subsurface Observations of the Solar Cycle (Invited) Rachel

Howe

Abstract: Helioseismic observations since 1995, with GONG and MDI and more recently with HMI, have shown that the solar cycle has manifestations far below the surface. Most notably, the pattern of migrating zonal flows known as the torsional oscillation, which involves much of the convection zone, can be used as

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an indicator of the solar cycle timing. The meridional flow also shows a modulation with the solar cycle. While changes in the frequency of helioseismic modes with activity are well established, these are dominated by the outer layers and changes in the deeper interior are harder to detect.

11:20‐11:40 Migration and extension of solar active longitudinal zones András Ludmány, N. Gyenge, T. Baranyi Abstract: The solar active longitudes show a characteristic migration pattern in the Carrington system. By following this migration the longitudinal activity distribution around the center of the band can be determined. The halfwidth of the distribution is found to be varying in cycles 21-23 and in some time intervals it was as narrow as 20-30 degrees. It was more extended around maximum but it was also narrow at the flip-flop event when the activity jumped to the opposite longitude. The path of the active longitude migration does not support the view that it might be associated with the solar cycle.

11:40‐12:00 An Early Prediction for the Amplitude of the Solar Cycle 25 Javaraiah Javaraiah Abstract: Many attempts have been made to predict the amplitude of a new sunspot cycle by using old cycles' data with a belief that solar magnetic field persists for a quite some time. The magnetic fields at different latitudes during different time-intervals of a cycle might contribute (/related) to the activity at the same or different latitudes during its following cycle(s). With this hypothesis, earlier (Javaraiah, MNRAS 377, L34 (2007); Solar Phys. 252, 419(2008)), we have analyzed the the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006 and found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 degree latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n, and also the corresponding north-south deference, correlate well with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 degree latitude interval of the southern hemisphere but in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlate very well with the amplitude of cycle n+1.Using `(1)' and `(2)' it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 13 and 9 years in advance, respectively. We have predicted the following values for the amplitude of the current solar cycle, 24: '103', '74', and '87', using '(1)', '(2)' and their combination, respectively. Now the spot group data are also vailable for the recent five years and the epoch of the preceding minimum of Cycle 24 is known. Hence, by using the relation `(1)' it enabled us to make a prediction for the amplitude of the next solar cycle, 25, well in advance. We find that Cycle 25 will be an another weak cycle (weakest after Cycle 16) with amplitude 84 plus or minus 10, which is by about 16% lower than the value that was predicted for the amplitude of Cycle 24 by using `(1)' and by about 45% lower than the observed amplitude of Cycle 23. This also indicates that the upcoming minimum of the current Gleissberg cycle will take place in Cycle 25. We also find that the strength of the approximate 44-year periodicity in the north-south asymmetry of sunspot activity is latitude dependent.

 

12:00‐13:30 Lunch (Corona Café)

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13:50‐14:10 Reconciling Group and International Sunspot Numbers Edward Cliver, Leif Svalgaard Abstract: The yearly group sunspot numbers (GSNs) and international sunspot numbers (ISNs) differ by 30-50% before ~1885, with the group number being systematically lower. In an effort to reconcile these numbers, we have identified two discontinuities in these time series: (1) an increase of ~20% in the ISN in ~1947, shortly after Waldmeier replaced Brunner at Zurich; and (2) an increase of ~30% in the group SSN in ~1885. The jump in the ISN in ~1947 is attributed primarily to a weighting scheme for individual spots instituted by Waldmeier. A reconstruction of the GSN based on group counts made by all major observers from 1825-1900 indicates that the discontinuity in ~1885 results from a flaw in the original GSN, a conclusion which is supported by an independent reconstruction of the SSN based on geomagnetic data. Two corrections can bring the annual GSN and ISN time series into reasonable agreement – increasing ISNs by 20% for years before 1947 (preferred to reducing ISNs after 1946) and then increasing the GSNs by ~50% for years before 1885.

Session 2: Active Region Emergence: how, when, where? 14:10‐14:20 Helioseismic Observation of Emerging Active Regions

(Invited) Junwei Zhao Abstract: Detecting emerging active regions in the solar interior by helioseismology techniques before these regions are visible in the photosphere has both scientific and practical importance. It helps us to understand how acoustic waves and magnetic field interact inside the Suns, and to constrain solar dynamo and emerging magnetic flux models. Successful detections can help predict upcoming large active regions and possibly large eruptive events, which are useful inputs to space weather forecast. While helioseismic detection of emerging regions is still an ongoing work, in this talk I would like to review most of the past efforts in detecting emerging regions, and discuss physical implications and possible applications of these results.

14:20‐14:40 Numerical Simulation of a Full Active Region Live‐Cycle

Matthias Rempel, M. Cheung Abstract: The flux emergence process transporting magnetic field from the solar interior into the photosphere and beyond is central to our understanding of solar magnetism. Only in recent years numerical simulation on the scale of active regions have become feasible. In this talk we present results from a numerical simulation covering the full life-cycle of a short-lived active region from the formation through flux emergence to the subsequent decay into a plage region. The numerical simulation covers a domain of 150X75x16Mm3 and has been evolved for a total of 6 solar days. The active region formation is triggered through the emergence of a 1.7X1022 Mx Omega loop through our bottom boundary in about 15.5 Mm depth beneath the photosphere. The Omega loop initially contains a field aligned flow, which is expected to arise from angular momentum conservation as a magnetic field rises through the convection zone of the sun. After about one day we see the formation of an active region with two 1022 Mx sunspots in the photosphere. We find that a strong asymmetry between both spots with a more coherent leader spot is caused primarily by the flow along the merging Omega loop we imposed initially. During the simulation the more coherent leader spot develops a large scale diverging moat flow of a few 100 m/s

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that is present in the upper most 8 Mm of the convection zone. The subsequent decay of the sunspots is mostly drive by flux separation events that can be linked to convective flow patterns in more than 10Mm depth beneath the photosphere. Similarly these flow patterns also lead to a large-scale organization of the plage field on scales comparable to supergranulation. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

14:40-15:00 A Search for Pre‐Emergence Helioseismic Signatures of Active

Regions Graham Barnes, A.C. Birch, K.D. Leka, D.C. Braun, B. Javornik, T. Dunn, and I. González-Hernández Abstract: Helioseismology can be an important tool for understanding the formation of active regions. As a first step towards this goal, we have carried out a search for statistically significant helioseismic precursors of active region emergence. We used an automatic method to determine the time of emergence based on the NOAA/NGDC active region catalog and MDI/SOHO 96 minute magnetograms. Using GONG data, we applied helioseismic holography to 107 pre-emergence active regions and a control sample of 107 regions where no active region was present. We found some significant and surprising differences between our samples in both quantities determined from helioseismology and from surface magnetic fields. However, we do not see a clear signature of emergence when considering individual active regions. The results of this investigation may shed some light on the mechanism responsible for flux emergence, and certainly illustrate the care which must be taken in conducting such an investigation.

This work was supported by NASA contract NNH07CD25C.

15:00-15:20 New Emerging Flux and Interconnecting Loops Jie Chen

Abstract: Fifty interconnecting loops (ILs) that are induced by new-born active regions are investigated. The formation period of four ILs including two same-hemisphere interconnecting loops (HILs) and two trans-equatorial loops (TLs) are analyzed. The magnetic flux related with these loops is studied. Considering the active region pairs related with the IL as a magnetic system, the total magnetic flux has a tendency of increasing for this system, the signs of net magnetic flux tend to be opposite for the active region pairs.

15:20-15:50 Coffee Break 15:50-16:10 Magnetically Buoyant Loops in a Convective Dynamo

Simulation Nicholas Nelson, Benjamin P. Brown, A. Sacha Brun, Mark. S. Miesch, Juri Toomre Abstract: We present the first 3-D global MHD simulation in which the interaction of turbulent convection, rotation, and stratification yields a dynamo that self-consistently generates buoyant magnetic loops. Using the Anelastic Spherical Harmonics (ASH) code we simulate convection and dynamo action in a Sun-like star rotating at three times the current rate. In this model, strong wreaths of toroidal magnetic field are created in the convection zone. Significantly lower levels of diffusion are obtained using a dynamic Smagorinsky model for subgrid-scale turbulence. This permits the regions of strongest magnetic field in these

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wreaths to rise toward the top of the convection zone via a combination of magnetic buoyancy and advection by convective giant cells.

16:10-16:30 Temporal Variation of Subsurface Flows in Active Regions

K. Jain, S. Tripathy, R.W. Komm, I. González-Hernández, F. Hill and D. Haber Abstract: We apply the ring-diagram technique to study the temporal variation of horizontal velocity in sub-photospheric layers beneath active regions as they move across the solar disk. We categorize these active regions on the basis of their dynamical characteristics and investigate how velocity components beneath rotating sunspots differ from that in non-rotating sunspots. Our study clearly shows that there is a significant temporal variation in depth profiles of both zonal and meridional components in active regions with rotating sunspots while this variations remains small for nonrotating sunspots.

16:30-1700 Far‐side Observations of Active Regions (Invited) Doug Braun Abstract: From SOHO to GONG to SDO and Stereo, the detection and monitoring of solar active regions on the far hemisphere has been possible now for approximately a full solar cycle. In addition to their utility in forecasting the rotation of new, large active regions over the limb of the Sun, farside images are finding use in such applications as solar irradiance forecasting and flux transport models. I will briefly review the history of far-side observations beginning with conceptual developments dating from 25 years ago. Emphasis will be placed on helioseismic methods, first made possible with the MDI instrument on the SOHO spacecraft in 2000, and which now provide the basis for routine farside images made with the ground-based NSO/GONG network and the HMI instrument onboard SDO. Recent work on improvements, calibration, and comparisons of helioseismic farside images with direct imaging from STEREO, will be highlighted. Farside imaging provides a useful context for the de velopment of applications of helioseismic and magnetic observations of the Sun made from spacecraft at multiple vantage points. NWRA support of the helioseismic farside programs at NSO and Stanford U. is provided through the NASA funded HMI project and through NASA contract NNH10CD50C (PI C. Lindsey). D. Braun is also supported through NSF (AGS-1127327) and the NASA SDO Science Center (NNH09CE41C). Contributions to this presentation from C. Lindsey and I. González-Hernández are greatly appreciated.

18:00 Community BBQ

Sunspot Community Center

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Wednesday, 2nd May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30-8:45 Breakfast 8:45-9:20 How are Space Weather and Space Climate related to solar

Phenomena (Keynote) Michael Hesse

Abstract: The sun is the driver of virtually all space weather activity. Solar activity is associated with phenomena as diverse as high speed streams in interplanetary space, radiation and energetic particle bursts, and the large eruptions referred to as Coronal Mass Ejections. These dynamical phenomena cause space weather effects either directly, or through the interaction with the magnetic field and upper atmosphere of the Earth. Variations in the overall activity level lead to synoptic changes in the frequency and average severity of space weather effects, i.e., they modify the overall space climate. This presentation will focus on an overview of solar phenomena, and their relation to the space weather effects we care about. It will furthermore present insight into the state of space weather modeling, and discuss ways modeling can be used to obtain further insight into the nature of the sun-earth coupled system.

Session 3: The Role of Surface Magnetic Activity in Space Weather and Space Climate 9:20-9:50 The Flux Transport Model and its Relevance to Space Weather

and Climate (Invited) Anthony Yeates Abstract: Since its introduction by Leighton in the 1960s, the flux transport model for magnetic fields on the surface of the Sun has been one of the most enduring and successful models in solar physics. I will review its basic features, focusing on the observational input and calibration required to simulate real solar activity cycles. The flux transport model has long been an invaluable tool for reconstructing the heliospheric magnetic field, particularly over climatic timescales. It can also provide shorter-term insights into space weather activity such as CMEs or solar wind streams. However, I will highlight how space weather and climate applications depend not only on the flux transport parameters, but additionally on how one extrapolates the magnetic field into the corona above.

9:50-10:10 The Sub‐Surface Structure of a Large Sample of Active

Regions Charles Baldner, Richard S. Bogart, Sarbani Basu

Abstract: We employ ring diagram analysis to study the sub-surface thermal structure of active regions. We present results using a large number of active regions over the course of solar cycle 23. We present both traditional inversions of ring diagram frequency differences, with a total sample size of 264, and a statistical study using principal component analysis. We confirm earlier results on smaller samples that sound speed and adiabatic index are changed below regions of strong magnetic field. We find that sound speed is decreased in the region between approximately r=0.99Rsun and r=0.995Rsun (depths of 3Mm to 7Mm), and increased in the region between r=0.97Rsun and r=0.985Rsun (depths of 11Mm to 21Mm). The adiabatic index is enhanced in the same deeper

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layers that sound speed enhancement is seen. A weak decrease in adiabatic index is seen in the shallower layers in many active regions. We find that the magnitudes of these perturbations depend on the strength of the surface magnetic field, but we find a great deal of scatter in this relation, implying other factors may be relevant.

10:10-10:20 Workshop Photo 10:20-10:50 Coffee Break 10:50-11:10 Detailed view of Sunspot Group Development Judit Muraközy,

Tunde Baranyi, András Ludmány

Abstract: The most detailed Debrecen sunspot catalogues, the DPD and the SDD give an opportunity to study the morphology of sunspot groups on a large statistical sample. The SDD data allows us to make a difference between the leading and following parts of sunspot groups thus we can study them separately in a time resolution of 1.5 hours. We analyze the equilibrium distance and the asymmetry of compactness of the two parts as well as the area development/decay and the variation of tilt angle during the group's life.

11:10-11:40 Magnetograms and their importance for Space Weather and

Climate (Invited) Gordon Petrie  

Abstract: We will illustrate the importance of longitudinal and vector magnetograms for the study of space weather and climate by examining signatures of solar magnetic activity over short and long timescales. We will examine series of SDO/HMI 12-minute, 0.5 arcsec/pixel vector magnetograms covering several major flares and describe the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the photospheric magnetic changes associated with each flare. We will describe the abrupt changes in the field vector, the vertical electric current and the Lorentz force vector near the time of each flare. By comparing and contrasting the changes occurring near major magnetic neutral lines and in sunspots, we will deduce important details of the magnetic behavior of the flaring fields. We will relate the observed magnetic changes to well-known models of flares. To examine magnetic activity over longer timescales, we will analyze daily, full-disk, ~1 arcsec/pixel magnetograms from 3 NSO Kitt Peak magnetographs>(512-channel, SPMG and SOLIS/VSM) going back to 1974. These observations allow us to study the inter-relationship of the active and polar fields over several solar cycles. Correlations between a proxy for the active region poloidal field, the field strength of the high-latitude poleward surges, and the time derivative of the polar field strength support the Babcock-Leighton model for the solar activity cycle and help to explain the weakness of the polar fields since the Cycle 23 maximum. Implications for space weather will be discussed.

11:40-12:00 Active region Vector Magnetic Field: Azimuth Ambiguity Solution from Multiline Observations Veronique Bommier Abstract: A new method for solving the field ambiguity in vector measurements has been developed, that makes use of simultaneous observations in two different lines formed at two different depths in the atmosphere. The resolution method is entirely based on observations. Once a unique field vector is obtained for each pixel, the electric current density curlB and the Lorentz force JXB may

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be derived. A series of vector maps can be seen at http://lesia.obspm.fr/perso/veronique-bommier/, from the THEMIS November 2010 campaign and also from HINODE/SOT/SP data. The role of the neutral lines appear important as the places where electric currents and Lorentz forces may be larger. This work has also shown where electric currents and Lorentz forces may be larger. This work has also shown that in sunspots the vertical gradient of the magnetic field is about ten times larger than the horizontal one. This leads to a difficulty to ensure the nullity of divB, which is given by the different between these two numbers. We have found that this inexplicable feature is widely present in the literature, in all other recent measurements and methods (see for instance the histograms of divB plotted by Puschmann, 2010, ApJ, 720, 1417, Figs 6-8). We can only open the question, but our field of competence prevents us from bring also possible answers.

12:00‐13:00 Lunch (Corona Café) 13:00‐14:00 Observatory tour (optional) Session 4: How do Filaments fit into Space Weather? 14:00‐14:30 Links between Filament Channels, Filaments, and CMEs

(Invited) Olga Panasenco Abstract: Eruptive solar events are commonly understood to consist of a flare and a coronal mass ejection enclosing a filament cavity and erupting filament. These components of eruptive events do not arbitrarily occur anywhere on the Sun; they have a common denominator; all develop exclusively within or around volumes of space on and above the solar disk known as filament channels. Therefore the channel should be considered a part of a still larger dynamical system that spawns eruptive solar events. It is the recognition of these large-scale dynamical systems that gives us real hope of predicting components of space weather in the future: they give us clues where to look on the Sun.

It is entirely logical that filament channels originate eruptive solar events because, as is well known, filament channels are sites of build-up of non-potential magnetic fields. However, there are at least two very different views on the magnetic field configuration of filament channels. The most common hypothesis is to assume that the magnetic configurations of filament channels are gigantic flux ropes. The other view is that in filament channels the dominant magnetic field component is along the filament’s long axis, so that filament channels must be regions where there is strong magnetic shear (i.e. fast changes in magnetic field direction over a relatively small region of space) and therefore strong currents (the magnetic fields are not potential). In this review we compare these two basic magnetic field configurations and how filaments would fit into each configuration. To test the validity of these proposed configurations, we compare them to many different observations of filaments and their dynamical forms both before and during erupting solar events. During erupting filaments, these include various degrees of the rolling or relative absence of rolling under CME envelopes that can be radial or non-radial. The non-radial motion of the filament is often greater than that of the CME. The erupting prominence moves freely inside the CME envelope. This apparent absence of rigid connection between the erupting prominence and the surrounding CME sheds light on the origin and formation of the CME itself. 

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14:30‐14:50 Development of a Complex Active Region Observed at the

Dutch Open Telescope Sara F. Martin, Olga Panasenco, Jingxiu Wang Abstract: We analyze the early development of a new and complex active region observed in high spatial resolution (0.e arc sec.) at the Dutch Open Telescope (DOT) on 2010 November 07. In H alpha, and at the outset of the DOT observations on the third day of its existence, the active region consists of a cluster of at least four active regions with three that are recognized by their arch filament systems. However rather than all of the active regions being adjacent to each other, the second, third and fourth with arch filament systems form within the first. The second and third and fourth regions are still in their first day of development and are forming sunspots. At least the second and third regions in the middle of the first are in the early stage of flux increase with the appearance of numerous, elementary bipoles which make the interior of the region appear to be exceedingly complex magnetically. Using SDO/HMI magnetograms, we will present measures of the magnetic flux in the four main bipolar regions, the rate of change of their total magnetic flux, and the rates of change of magnetic flux at sites where filament channels and flares might be anticipated. We also use SDO/AIA data at several wavelengths to follow the growth of this complex region in the corona.

14:50‐15:10 High‐resolution Observations of a Filament showing Activated Barb Anand D. Joshi, Nandita Srivastava, Shibu K. Mathew, Sara F. Martin Abstract: Analysis of a filament in an activated state using observations from the high-resolution Dutch Open Telescope (DOT) taken on 2010 August 20 is presented. The DOT takes Doppler images in H-alpha, among other wavelengths, in a region 110X110 arcsec2 in area, at a cadence of 30 seconds. During the course of observations, the filament showed formation and disappearance of several barbs. Barbs have been studied for a long time, but the precise role played by them in stability or eruption of filaments is not yet well understood. We have analyzed in detail such a barb that formed in 10 minutes, and disappeared in the next 35 minutes. The offline image restoration technique of speckle reconstruction was applied to obtain diffraction limited images. Line-of-sight velocity maps were constructed from the H-alpha Doppler images of the filament. We observe flows in the filament spine towards the barb location prior to its formation, and flows in the barb towards the spine during its disappearance. Photospheric magnetograms from Heliospheric Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, at a cadence of 45 seconds, were used to determine the changes in magnetic flux in the region surrounding the barb location. The variation of magnetic flux in this duration supports the view that barbs are rooted in minor magnetic polarity. Our analysis shows that barbs can be short-lived and formation and disappearance of the barb was associated with cancellation of magnetic flux.

15:10-15:30 Oscillatory Power observed in Flares and Filaments Jason Jackiewicz

Abstract: We present a study of several flaring active regions that show oscillatory power in H-alpha velocity maps which is highly frequency dependent. Most of the power is concentrated in very low-frequency waves after the flaring event, suggesting it is not due to the acoustic 5-minute oscillations. While these

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types of dynamics may have been observed in several instances in the past, we show a unique representation of their behavior and possible usefulness.

16:30 Social Excursion (Optional extra charge $10)

Visit to White Sands National Park including Picnic (Subject to Weather conditions) (Meet at Sunspot Community Center for Caravan.)

Thursday, 3rd May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30‐9:00 Breakfast Session 5: Space Weather Effects of Solar Flares 9:00‐9:30 Solar Flares and Their Effects on Space Weather (Invited)

Jiong Qiu, Qiang Hu Abstract: Solar flares are impulsive energy release by magnetic reconnection. Flare radiation is an immediate response to magnetic free energy release during reconstruction of the magnetic field, and is therefore the pre-cursor of many space weather events. Occurrence and evolution of flares are governed by magnetic properties of the active region, so studying flare signatures will allow us to infer properties of magnetic reconnection, such as the rate and energetics of magnetic reconnection. Many flares are associated with large-scale phenomena including coronal mass ejections and coronal dimming. These are indicative of eruptive opening of overlying magnetic structures, along which energetic particles, large amounts of plasmas, and magnetic flux and twist such as carried by flux-rope CMEs are ejected into interplanetary space. This talk will review the progress in understanding the physical association between solar flares and the space weather.

9:30-9:50 A Study of Connections between Solar Flares and Subsurface

Flow Fields of Active Regions Yu Gao, Junwei Zhao, Hongqi Zhang Abstract: We investigate connections between solar flares and subsurface flows of the active regions. The flare parameter used in this study is the x-ray peak flux observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) , and the subsurface flows are obtained from time-distance data-analysis pipeline for the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The high temporal resolution of the observation allows us to

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study the hour-level evolution of the physical parameters of subsurface flows as well as their relations with solar flares. A few active regions having flare(s) above speed, often show bumps near the flare peaks of the x-ray flux, implying there are some connections between subsurface kinetic helicity and solar flares. Additionally, the amplitudes of the velocity multiplying magnetic field in the active region rapidly varies with the time, especially around the peak time of the x-ray flux for some cases. These results imply that the kinetic helicity may be a good indicator for solar flares in subsurface flows and worth monitoring closely with more events. The relationship between the subsurface flow field, kinetic helicity, magnetic field and solar flares is rather complicated and needs more detailed investigations.

9:50‐10:20 Flares and the Forecasting Potential of Subsurface Flows (Invited) Alysha Reinard, Larisza Krista, Rudi Komm, Frank Hill Abstract: Forecasting solar flares is the holy grail of space weather research. Many flare prediction schemes exist, using techniques that range from observations of sunspot morphology to measurements of magnetic field configuration and strength to pure gut instincts. Each of these techniques has added insight and a potential for improved predictions, but so far no method has significantly improved on the instincts of the SWPC forecasters. We present a newcomer to this effort, based on measurements of subsurface flows using the ring-diagram helioseismology method. We describe our process and our results so far and then discuss the efforts underway to improve the technique and understand the underlying physics.

10:20‐10:40 Coffee Break 10:40‐11:00 Evolution of Current Helicity Density in NOAA 11158 during X‐

Class Flare Sanjay Gosain

Abstract: In this presentation I will talk about the indicators of magnetic non-potentiality in flare productive solar active regions as derived using vector magnetograms. The indicators used are the dip shear, twist shear, spatially averaged shear angle, vertical current density and current helicity density. The short term flare-related changes i.e., during flare interval as well as the long term evolution of these parameters during the disk passage in some flare productive active regions will be discussed.

11:00‐11:20 Sunquakes and Two Types of Solar Flares Alexander Kosovichev

Abstract: Uninterrupted observations of the Sun from SDO have provided unique opportunity for investigation of "sunquakes", helioseismic waves caused by strong localized impacts in the low atmosphere. These events are relatively rare. They are observed during solar flares of X-class or high M-class. However, not all X-class flares produce sunquakes. Using data from the HMI and AIA instruments I investigate properties of sunquakes by detecting and analyzing the seismic wave fronts and the sources of the flare impact, and discuss physical mechanisms of the impact. By comparing energetic and morphological characteristics of the flares with and without sunquakes, I present arguments that this phenomenon reflects a division between two classes of solar flares: confined and eruptive, which may be fundamentally different in terms of the energy release mechanism.

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11:20‐11:40 Periodicities in the Occurrence of Solar Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection and Sunspot Area in Solar Cycle 23‐24 Debi Prasad Choudhary, Max Norris Abstract: In order to investigate the relationship of magnetic flux emergence, solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area and photospheric magnetic flux has a dominant periodicity of about 155 days. But the time-period relationship obtained using Morlet wavelet show that the periodicity is confined to a part of solar cycle and non-repeating. We present the time series analysis of sunspot area, Flare and CME occurrence during the cycle 23 and rising phase of cycle 24 in 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence has multiple periodicities. The flare and the CME, however do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. We discuss the possible activity producing emerging flux using the results of this study.

11:40‐12:00 Reduction of total Field in M8 Flare, 13 Mar 2012 William Livingston

Abstract: Using Fe 15648A we tracked the max total magnetic field from 10 -15 March in 11429 and observed a sharp decline from 3029 to 2750 Gauss with the onset of the M8 flare. The field afterward never recovered.

12:00‐13:30 Lunch (Corona Café) Session 6: CME effects of Space Weather 13:30‐14:00 Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from

Active‐Region Magnetograms (Invited) David Falconer, Ronald L. Moore, Abdulnasser F. Barghouty, and Igor Khazanov Abstract: Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region’s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region’s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region’s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region’s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region’s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

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(GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

This work has been funded by NASA’s Heliophysics Division, NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, and AFOSR’s MURI Program. Development of this forecasting tool for JSC/Space Radiation Analysis Group was supported by NASA’s Office of Chief Engineer Technical Excellence Initiative and is supported by NASA’s AES (Advance Exploration Systems) Program.

14:00‐14:30 What properties of CMEs are most important for space

weather? (Invited) Nat Gopalswamy

Abstract: Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfvénic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth’s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites I geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

14:30‐14:50 Energetic Relationship between Solar Flares and associated

CMEs, and SEPs Rajmal Jain, Nipa J. Bhatt, Arun K. Awasthi, Sharad C. Tripathi, Parvaiz Khan Abstract: It is widely known that solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strongly influence the near-Earth environment, and both are powered by the magnetic energy stored in the corona. Solar flares and CMEs produce streams of highly energetic particles viz. solar energetic particles (SEPs). The magnetized plasma emitted by these phenomena is the main driver of the space weather. Thus it is of extreme importance to understand the relationship between the flares and the associated CMEs, and SEPs, as well as to explore their solar origin. In this investigation we study in detail the energetic characteristics of 50 major solar flares observed in X-ray domain by SOXS and RHESSI and found associated with CMEs/ SEPs. The CMEs were observed by LASCO onboard SOHO mission, while the associated SEP events were observed by GOES mission.

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We report the power-law relationship between the non-thermal X-ray spectral index of the solar flares and the linear speed of the associated CMEs. The observed relationship is a power-law fit with a correlation coefficient of ~0.80. Further, we found that out of 50 flare-CME events only 19 events, which occurred between near central meridian and western limb of the Sun, were followed up by SEP enhancement at Earth. We report the evidence of dependence of spectral hardness of solar energetic particles (SEPs) on the spectral hardness of non-thermal X-rays of the associated solar flares. Though statistically this result is limited to only 12 events but we observed a good linear correlationship of about 0.80 between the hardest flare spectrum and hardest proton spectrum. We propose that the configuration of the reconnection site and the magnitude of reconnection govern the flare strength and CME speed as well as the energetic processes in the SEPs, however, along with the interaction of the IP shocks during its passage on the way to earth. Based on observations and analysis we propose a qualitative model, and we conclude that the flare, CME and SEP are connected with one another and should be regarded within the framework of a solar eruption. Further this investigation enables to predict the hardness of a proton event based on the real-time observations of the hardness of flare spectra.

14:50‐15:10 Deflections of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections and the Properties

of Associated Solar Energetic Particle Events Stephen Kahler, S. Akiyama Abstract: The onset times and peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth have long been thought to be influenced by the open magnetic fields of coronal holes (CHs). The original idea was that a CH lying between the solar SEP source region and the magnetic footpoint of the 1 AU observer would result in a delay in onset and/or a decrease in the peak intensity of that SEP event. Recently, Gopalswamy et al. (2009, 2010) showed that nearby Chs can deflect fast CMEs from their expected trajectories in space, explaining the appearance of driverless shocks at 1 AU from CMEs ejected near solar central meridian. This suggests that SEP events originating in CME-driven shocks may show variations attributable to CH deflections of CME trajectories. Here we use a CH magnetic force parameter to examine possible effects of CHs on the timing and intensities of 41 observed gradual ~20 MeV SEP events with CME source regions within 20 20 degrees f central meridian. We find no systematic CH effects on SEP event intensity profiles. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the CME leading-edge measured position angles (MPAs) and SEP event properties, suggesting that the widths of CME-driven shock sources of the SEPs are much larger than the MEs. Independently of the SEP event properties, we do find evidence for significant CME deflections by CH fields in these events.

15:10:15:40 The STEREO mission and its role in Space Weather (Invited) Paulett Liewer Abstract: The STEREO mission has greatly increased our knowledge of processes on the Sun and in the inner heliosphere that are directly relevant to understanding how solar variability causes Space Weather. STEREO has enabled us to trace many CMEs in white light from the Sun to 1 AU and beyond where they can then be sampled by in situ instruments at Earth, on STEREO or on other spacecraft. This had enhanced dramatically our ability to characterize the propagation of CMEs from the Sun to Earth. The additional view points provided by STEREO has enabled us to see both the CME and its initiation site

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and has led to a better understanding of the origins of CMEs. The multiple viewpoints have also improved our knowledge on the ambient solar wind and energetic particle propagation. In addition, STEREO’s beacon data has been providing information in real time that can be used to monitor the current space weather (including solar activity on the far-side) and predict arrival times of CMEs. In this talk I will give an overview of STEREO’s many contributions to understanding Space Weather.

15:40‐16:10 Coffee Break Session 7: Coronal Holes and their Role in Space Weather 16:10‐16:40 Coronal Holes and Fast Solar Wind in Space Weather (Invited)

Giuliana de Toma

Abstract: The two main sources of space weather are coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed solar wind streams, both of which vary with the solar activity cycle. Fast CMEs with strong southward fields are responsible for the most intense geomagnetic storms and are prevalent during times of high solar activity. High speed solar wind streams, emanating from low –latitude coronal holes at the Sun, can drive moderate but long-duration geomagnetic storms. High speed streams are present during the entire solar cycle but become more prevalent during the declining phase, when coronal holes at low latitudes tend to be large in size and long lived. In this presentation, we focus on coronal holes and their space weather influence the distribution of coronal holes and how this turns affects the solar wind speeds seen at the Earth.

16:40‐17:00 Temporal Evolution of Coronal Loop Structures Alexander

Pevtsov, R. T. J. McAteer, J. Jackiewicz, B. McNamara Abstract: We study the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of coronal

loops using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We apply an automated graphic processing unit accelerated coronal loop detection algorithm that is maximized for accuracy and completeness, and reconnects orphaned segments of coronal oops, to extreme ultraviolet images of the solar corona. We quantify the loop size distribution with a scaling index in each of the SDO AIA passbands, and show how this changes with time. This provides new insights into the physical mechanism that create coronal structure.

17:00-17:20 Filament and Sigmoid Statistics Gathered by Newly Developed

Automated Feature Finding Modules Piet Martens, Rafal Angryk, Juan Banda, Karthik Ganesan Pillai, Michael Schuh

Abstract: We have used two automated feature finding modules developed by the SDO Feature Finding Team (FFT), namely the "Sigmoid Sniffer" and the "Advanced Automated Solar Filament Detection and Characterization Code", to study the statistics and correlations of these two phenomena from AIA and ground-based H-alpha observations. We find some familiar, some new, and some startling results. New, as far as we know, but expected, is the strong correlation between filament chirality and sigmoid handedness. Startling is that we have, so far, found no confirmation of the chirality hemispheric rule, and

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surprising is a double-humped distribution of the angle that filaments make with respect to the equator.

This is ongoing research, and I will present the latest results in my talk.

Friday, 4th May: Sunspot Visitor Center 8:30‐9:00 Breakfast Session 8: From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather 9:00‐9:30 From predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather

(Invited) Juan Fontenla Abstract: Prediction of solar activity has been a holly grail for a long time. Such prediction involves all aspects of how solar magnetic fields of various configurations appear on the solar surface and produce basically four effects: 1) Sunspots and active regions that affect the solar irradiance (especially in

XUV/EUV range) and are well known to directly affect the upper Earth atmosphere and the Low Earth Orbit environment. It is not so clear whether the near-UV, visible and IR solar spectral irradiance changes may or may not have an effect on the tropospheric climate.

2) Flares are very bright, sudden, and short-lived enhancements on the radiative output at XUV/EUV wavelengths, but more importantly produce very energetic particles. The highest energy particles can penetrate deep into the Earth magnetic field, but even the not so energetic particles bombard the space environment outside the Earth protective magnetic shield.

3) CMEs are often associated to large flares, but not always. These affect the Earth radiation belts through their interaction with the magnetosphere, and one of their effects is the well know “aurora”.

4) A less known effect of lower magnitude but more pervasive are small but numerous magnetic structures that affect the solar irradiance and solar wind in less dramatic but still effective ways because of their accumulated effects.

Several methods are currently producing great advances on the understanding of magnetic fields evolution and effects. These include helioseismology, imaging, and spectroscopy observations, and modeling and simulation interpretation tools. The next step involves targeted modeling of these data for producing sufficiently good estimates in order to quantitatively forecast the effects of those solar magnetic field structures on the space weather that includes the Earth and the interplanetary atmospheres and environments as well as those of other planets and moons. The operational challenges are putting strong demands on our ability to perform quantitative prediction.

9:30‐10:00 Solar Models Used for Operational Space Weather (Invited)

Nick Arge Abstract: Only a handful of solar models are currently being used for operational space weather forecasting purposes. One of the first to do so is the Hakamada-

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Akasofu-Fry (HAF) model, which was made operational by AFWA in 2006. HAF is a kinematic solar wind model driven by a coronal Potential Field Source Surface (PFFS) model such as that used in the WSA-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. HAF predicts solar wind parameters and CME shock arrival time. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is a combined empirical and physics based representation of the corona and quasi-steady global solar wind flow. It is used to predict the ambient solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity at Earth. The WSA coronal and solar model has been running in near operational mode at the NOAA/SWPC since the late 1990s. The Enlil model is an advanced, state-of-the art 3D MHD model of the solar wind. Like HAF, Enlil requires a coronal model to drive it, and for operational purposes, this is done using the coronal component of WSA. In fact, a coupled version of the WSA+Enlil model was just recently made operational at the NOAA/NCEP in September 2011. This coupled model is the first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model to be transitioned from research into operations. WSA+Enlil predicts the 3D solar wind, and when used in combination with a CME cone tool, greatly improves the accuracy of CME arrival time predictions. All the models mentioned above are driven by global synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field distribution. Traditionally they are assembled using magnetograms taken over approximately a solar rotation and thus do not represent the instantaneous state of the photospheric magnetic field. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model is a new approach for providing realistic instantaneous snapshots of the global magnetic field distribution. It achieves this by combing a photospheric flux transport model with rigorous data assimilation methods. ADAPT is currently being automated to run in real-time for the purpose of supporting operational models such as WSA+Enlil. In this review talk, I provide a brief overview of each of these models and describe what they do and how they are currently being (or will be) used operationally.

10:00‐10:20 Space Weather Forecasting with ADAPT and Helioseismic Far‐side Data Carl J. Henney, C. Nick Arge, Irene González-Hernández, W. Alex Toussaint, Stephen White, Josef Koller, Humberto C. Godinez Abstract: Without STEREO-like observations of the solar magnetic field on the solar far-side, only the Earth-side of the solar surface is measured without large temporal gaps. The lack of far-side magnetic field data results in global maps that include data more than 13 days old, since the solar rotational period relative to Earth is approximately 27 days. Large discontinuities at the boundary between old and new data can result in global monopole signals. To minimize these discontinuities we have developed the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model. The methodology for incorporating helioseismically inferred far-side magnetic field strength estimates within the distribution, characteristics and morphologies of flux emergence within the ADAPT ensemble framework. Preliminary results will be presented for forecasting of the solar wind and solar 10.7 cm radio flux between ADAPT maps with and without helioseismic far-side data.

10:20‐10:50 Coffee Break 10:50‐11:20 Transition from Model to Tool (Invited) Victor Pizzo

Abstract: I will be reporting on the recent transition of the WSA-Enlil model into operations at NOAA/SWPC. We will begin with a very brief overview of the operational system elements and architecture, followed by a discussion of the

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major features that distinguish a truly operational environment. The latter includes 24/7 staffing, multiple layers of system redundancy, and strategies for coping with the lack of a fully operational input data stream. Most of the talk will be devoted to issues concerning ambient and CME inputs, such as fast flows from open regions that are not associated with coronal holes and difficulties in characterizing the ejecta in energetic disturbances that activate the entire corona. Finally, we will illustrate how glancing-blow events - which can nonetheless spark significant geomagnetic storms - are the most troublesome to forecast.

11:20:11:40 The Role of Synoptic Observations in Space Weather

Forecasting Alexei Pevtsov Abstract: Modern-day space weather forecast requires variety of data taken in different spectral ranges and at a different spatial resolution. As a recent tendency, the increasing number of data products, traditionally taken from the ground based observatories is replaced by data from space-borne instruments. As this tendency is likely to continue, one could wonder about a long-term future of ground based synoptic instruments as data providers for space weather forecasting. What are the advantages of ground based observations and what may need to be changed to allow them successfully compete with space-borne instruments? This talk will provide a critical review of current state of ground based synoptic programs and assess their current and future roles as data providers for space weather forecast.

11:40‐12:00 Status of the SOLIS Data Luca Bertello, A. Pevtsov, L. Callahan, B.

Harker, J. Harvey, A. Marble, A. Pietarila, R. Toussaint

Abstract: The Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (SOLIS) is a synoptic facility designed to study various aspects of solar activity over a long time frame. Operating since 2003, SOLIS is composed of a single equatorial mount carrying three telescopes: the 50 cm Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM), the 14 cm Full-Disk Patrol (FDP), and the 8 mm Integrated Sunlight Spectrometer (ISS). Over the past year, a significant effort has been made to improve the quality of the data products derived from SOLIS observations. We will present some of the major changes made to the VSM and ISS data reduction procedures that have resulted in higher quality data and new products available to the community. One of SOLIS primary goals is to enhance the database that supports the analysis of conditions in the Sun's corona and heliosphere, and these recent improvements will certainly facilitate this task.

12:00‐12:10 Closing Remarks Rudi Komm

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Posters (Tuesday - Friday, Community Center) 9.1 Calibration of a century of polar field measurements and what this tells us

about the long‐term variability of the solar and heliospheric magnetic field Andrés Muñoz‐Jaramillo, Neil R. Sheeley, Jr., Jie Zhang, Edward E. DeLuca

Abstract: In addition to the well-known 11-year periodicity, the solar cycle also presents long-term modulations of its amplitude and period which play a determinant role in the evolution of space weather and climate. To this date, the efforts at understanding long-term solar variability have focused on the active parts of the cycle using sunspot properties as their main source of data. However, the recent extend minimum of sunspot cycle 23 has shown us that the quiet parts of the cycle are equally important and thus long-term databases complementary to sunspot properties are necessary.

Here we show how to consolidate Mount Wilson observatory polar faculae data from four observational campaigns (1906-1964), Sheeley 1966; 1960–1975, Sheeley 1976; 1975-1990, Sheeley 1991; 1985–2007, Sheeley 2008), validate it through a comparison with facular data counted automatically from MDI intensitygrams, and calibrate it against polar field measurements taken by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (1977-2011) and average polar field and total polar flux calculated using MID line-of-sight magnetograms (1996-2011).

We also show that the consolidated polar facular measurements are in excellent agreement with both polar field and polar flux estimates, making them an ideal proxy of the polar magnetic field since 1906 and use this proxy to study the role of polar flux in the evolution of the solar cycle and the Heliospheric Magnetic Field (HMF).

9.2 Debrecen sunspot catalogue programs

András Ludmány, Gyori, L., T. Baranyi

Abstract: The primary task of the Debrecen Observatory is the most detailed, reliable and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity. This long-term effort started with the continuation of the Greenwich photoheliograph program, this is the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) sunspot catalogue based on ground based observations. The work has later been extended to space-born observations (SOHO/MDI and SDO), to magnetic fields and faculae as well as to higher temporal resolution (one hour) and nearly real time data supply. In the future the extension will also include historical observations. If later supports allow, the ultimate aim will be the detailed sunspot data supply for each day when full disc images were recorded at all. The web-presentation of the material is easy to search and browse.

9.3 Possible connection between toroidal magnetic field and torsional motion

field Judit Muraközy, András Ludmány

Abstract: The aim of the present work is to examine the spatial and temporal coincidences of the torsional waves and the emergence of sunspot magnetic fields. The locations of the shearing latitudes have been compared with the distributions of certain sunspot parameters by using sunspot data of the time interval 1975-2009. The overwhelming majority of sunspots tends to be located within the prograde belts close to their poleward shearing borders. A possible scenario of the magnetic and velocity field interaction is proposed.

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9.4 Wave excitation in the Magnetic Network driven through footpoint motions in the Photosphere: 3‐D MHD Simulations S. S. Hasan, G. Vigeesh

Abstract: We present calculations of wave propagation in a magnetic flux tube of the solar network, carried out with direct observational input of motions at the footpoints. From high resolution observations of the quiet Sun, we determine the velocity profile of an isolated photospheric magnetic bright point (MBP). Using 3-D MHD simulations, we investigate the response of an individual flux tube driven by footpoint motions. An equilibrium magnetic flux tube model is first constructed and the observed velocity information is used as a boundary condition to excite waves in the flux tube. We examine the response of the tube to these driving motions at the base of the tube that generate upward propagating MHD waves. We estimate the energy flux in these waves and access their role in contributions to heating the chromosphere.

9.5 3‐D MHD Simulations of Wave Propagation in the Magnetic Network

S. S. Hasan, G. Vigeesh

Abstract: We present the result of a 3D numerical simulation of wave propagation in a magnetic flux tube carried out with direct inputs from observations. Using high resolution observations of the quiet Sun, we determine the velocity pattern of an isolated photospheric magnetic bright point (MBP. We investigate the response of such a perturbation on a model of magnetic flux tube with the help of 3D numerical simulations. A magnetic flux tube model is constructed and the observed velocity information is used as a boundary condition to excite waves in the model. We study the result of this "realistic" driving motion at the base of the magnetic flux tube in the generation and propagation of MHD waves. The response of the upper atmosphere to the underlying photospheric motion and the role of magnetic flux tube in channeling the motion is investigated.

9.6 Dynamics of NOAA 11339 During the Declining Phase of an X‐class Solar

Flare Brian Harker

Abstract: NOAA 11339 was the source of a GOES X1.9 flare, observed on 03 November 2011. During the declining phase of this flaring event, the Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) instrument, part of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (SOLIS) facility, was performing fast-scans of the full Stokes vector (2.4 pm/pix wavelength sampling in a 3 Angstrom window, centered around the Fe I multiplet at 630.25 nm) in this region, with an average cadence of approximately 3.8 minutes. Using this prototypical case, we find detectable changes in both the field strength and direction, as well as in various other properties of the spectral lines, including but not limited to Stokes V asymmetries, percent polarization, and equivalent width. Most coherent changes in all analyzed parameters are found in and around polarity inversion line (PIL) regions, where the temporal evolution of the field inclination indicates that the field becomes more horizontal during the declining phase (relaxation phase) of the flare, in agreement with Hudson, Fisher, and Welsch (2008) in which they argue that the collapse of coronal magnetic loops propagates downward into the photosphere, forcing them into a more horizontal configuration. Finally, we present estimates of the change in vertical Lorentz force (and its net value) associated with these field changes, and explore changes in (e.g.) free magnetic energy, vertical current density, and vertical helicity density.

9.7 Comparison of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods KD Leka, Graham Barnes and the

Participants in "Forecasting the Operational All‐Clear"

Abstract: Solar flares produce X-rays which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The energy available for flares is believed to be stored in the magnetic fields of active regions, and released by magnetic reconnection in the corona. The number of published approaches to

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flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates typical of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting when event rates are low have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During an interagency workshop on ``All Clear'' forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on a common data set, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We summarize the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what actually constitutes a good prediction scheme. This work was funded by NASA LWS TRT contract NNH09CE72C.

9.8 SOLIS/VSM Photospheric LOS Magnetic Flux Measurements: Comparison

with HMI, MDI and Mt Wilson Data Anna Pietarila, L. Bertello, J. Harvey, A. Pevtsov

Abstract: Full-disk line-of-sight (LOS) photospheric (Fe I 630.15 nm) magnetograms are one of the daily data products of the Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM), part of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) project. During the last year significant changes were implemented to the data reduction pipeline leading to improved data product quality. We present a comparison of and provide scaling factors for VSM, Mt Wilson and MDI mean solar magnetic flux measurements. Pixel- by-pixel comparisons of VSM magnetograms with HMI and MDI magnetograms show a good agreement between the instruments, but also demonstrate the difficulty of assigning a single scaling factor for magnetograms.

9.9 Chromospheric H-Alpha; filter commissioning and imaging at the UND

Observatory Rakesh Nath, Paul S. Hardersen

Abstract: The University of North Dakota (UND) Observatory will commence solar observations with the commissioning of a DayStar 0.4-Angstrom H-Alpha; filter attached to a Meade LX200 Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope. Imaging will occur using a Finger Lakes Instrumentation PL16803 front illuminated, monochrome CCD/filter wheel with a neutral density filter. An interference eliminator is also present in the optical train. This effort is part of a larger effort to develop an independent, externally-funded solar physics group at UND. This work is the first effort at gaining direct experience with solar instrumentation, observations, calibrations, and post-image processing. The primary goals of this Master’s thesis project at the UND Department of Space Studies is to: a) identify chromospheric features and detect filament/prominence motions through analysis of time-series images, b) qualitatively evaluate site seeing and identify the subset of images with the best resolution and to compare those images with H-Alpha; images from other solar observatories (i.e., ISOON), c) and apply a variety of image processing algorithms to attempt to better define the dimensions of chromospheric features. A critical aspect of this effort will be to evaluate the scientific usefulness of the resulting datasets. This program will lay the foundation for an ISOON-like system at the UND Observatory that will provide continuous and automated solar monitoring. Images will be acquired, calibrated on-the-fly, and posted to the UND Observatory web site. An image archive will be created and an image portal developed that will provide public access to the acquired images.

9.10 Solar Limb AO Greg Taylor, T. Rimmele, J. Marino, R. T. J. McAteer

Abstract: In order to understand Solar Prominences, we need to observe them at sub-arcsecond resolution, with a sub-second cadence. Present image reconstruction techniques, such as Speckle Interferometry, are capable of delivering high resolution images, but at a low cadence. We propose the design for a Solar Limb Adaptive Optics (AO) system that would allow images to be captured at sub-second cadence with sub-arcsecond resolution.

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9.11 Sunspot Variations Over Two Solar Cycles G. de Toma, G. Chapman, D. Preminger,

and A. Cookson

Abstract: We examine the changes in area and contrast of sunspots during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from San Fernando Observatory. We find a significant lack of very large spots in cycle 23 that is mainly responsible for the decrease in sunspot area during cycle 23, but do not find a significant difference in the frequencies of small to medium spots between the two cycles. We also find that the relationship between sunspot area and contrast is the same for the two cycles. Our findings do not support that sunspots are getting less dark.

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Participant List

Altrock, Dick, Air Force Research Laboratory

Arge, C. Nick, Air Force Research Laboratory

Baldner, Charles, Stanford Solar Center

Barnes, Graham, Northwest Research

Associates

Bertello, Luca, NSO/Tucson

Bommier, Veronique, LESIA, Observatoire de

Paris

Braun, Doug, Northwest Research Associates

Chen, Jie, National Astronomical Observatories

of China

Choudhary, Debi Prasad, California State

University/Northridge

Cliver, Edward, Air Force Research Laboratory

Criscuoli, Serena, NSO/Sunspot

de Toma, Giuliana, HAO.NCAR

Falconer, David, UA/Huntsville

Fontenla, Juan, LASP University of Colorado

Fox, James Lewis, NSO/Sunspot

Gao, Yu, NAO, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Gopalswamy, Nat, NASA Goddard Space Flight

Center

Gosain, Sanjay, NSO/Tucson

Harker, Brian, NSO/Tucson

Hasan, S. S., Indian Institute of Astrophysics

Henney, Carl J., Air Force Research Laboratory

Hesse, Michael, NASA Goddard Space Flight

Center

Howe, Rachel, University of Birmingham

Jackiewicz, Jason, New Mexico State

University

Jain, Kiran, NSO/Tucson

Javaraiah, Javaraiah, Indian Institute of

Astrophysics

Jin, Chunlen, NAO, Chinese Academy of

Sciences

Joshi, Anand, Udaipur Solar Observatory

Kahler, Stephen, Air Force Research

Laboratory

Keil, Stephen, NSO/Sunspot

Kitiashvili, Irina, Stanford Solar Center

Kosovichev, Alexander, Stanford Solar Center

Komm, Rudolf, NSO/Tucson

Leibacher, John, NSO/Tucson

Leka, KD, Northwest Research Associates

Liewer, Paulett, NASA/JPL

Livingston, William, NSO/Tucson

Ludmány, András, Heliosphysical Observatory

Martens, Petrus, Montana State University

Martin, Sara F., Helio Research

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés, CFA Harvard

Muraközy, Judit, Heliophysical Observatory

Nath, Rakesh, University of North Dakota

Nelson, Nicholas, University of Colorado

Panasenco, Olga, Helio Research

Petrie, Gordon, NSO/Tucson

Pevtsov, Alexander, New Mexico State

University

Pevtsov, Alexei, NSO/Sunspot

Pietarila, Anna, NSO/Tucson

Pizzo, Victor, NOAA/Space Weather Prediction

Center

Qiu, Jiong, Montana State University

Reinard, Alysha, University of Colorado/Boulder

Rempel, Matthias, HAO/NCAR

Simon, George, NSO/Sunspot

Taylor, Greg, New Mexico State University

Tritschler, Alexandra, NSO Sunspot

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Uitenbroek, Han, NSO/Sunspot

Yeates, Anthony, Durham University

Zhao, Junwei, Stanford Solar Center

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Sunspot, New Mexico

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