solar power plant cash flow model
TRANSCRIPT
Steps of Site Identification &
Project Pre-Feasibility
Identification of site Solar insolation and shadow
assessment Geological due diligence Social audit of the site Power Evacuation Feasibility and
accessibility Technology and supplier selection Financial Pre Feasibility
Land shall be plain and Red soil with proper rain water drainage provision .
Near to 33KV SS Motor able road Following land is not suitable : Black Cotton Soil Site located near mountain ,Larger
Water Bodies & Shadow over land .
• No of sunny days / sunny hours • No of Cloudy days & Rainy days • Relative Humidity & Temperature @
Site • Direction of Sun Rays falling on the
Panel • Following land is not suitable :• More dusty Area • Site located near mountain ,Larger
Water Bodies & Shadow over land .
• As land orientation should preferably be flat, considerations while identifying site must include;
• Degree of levelization,• A drainage system,• Dust percentage in air• Land/soil capacity to hold structures.• Soil Testing Experts/ Geotechnical
Engineers having understanding of soil and land mechanics.
Review issues related to:-
Security of the project and the systems, Possible threats in terms of security of
employees, Availability of labor & local support for the
project.
Review issues related to:-
• Availability of substation for power evacuation (Nearest- 11/33 KV )
• Availability / provision for Additional Bay @ SS • Evacuation capacity of the sub-station- to be
checked with distribution utility. • Feasibility study of Power Evacuation line of
33 KV from site to SS ( Pole compensation cost)
• Grid to be constructed as per IEGC .
Selection of Solar PV Technology based on -
• Past performance record, Available global radiation(GHI), Climatic conditions- Specially temperature and Wind velocity, Cost of technology (capital and O&M), Projected conversion efficiency/’s and Consequent projected CUF’s, Risks associated with the technologies
• Solar Panels – Type • Mono crystalline , Poly crystalline or Thin film
technology .• Battery Banks , inverters , PV – DC Cable
connectors , etc .• Use of specific PV DC cables
• Land & Development Cost• Construction Cost• Engineering Cost• Equipment Cost• Operational Cost• Revenue• Benefits/Incentives• Funds Availability• Cash Flow• Returns
Radiation at Site Losses in PV System
(Invertors ,Cabling, Soiling (Dust), Module Mismatch , MPPT losses & Transformer)
Temperature and Climatic condition Design Parameters of the Solar Plant Inverter efficiency Module degradation due to ageing . Grid Availability
Direct Method –
Pyrheliometer & Pyronometer instruments used @ site to estimate the Solar Radiation
InDirect method –Satelite data , NASA , Indian Metrological Department ,
World Radition Data Centre ( WRDC) & RET Screen Canadian software - Free of
cost
Reflection losses due to Sun Path, - Solar rays should fall perpendicular to panel for higher efficiency – But actually it may have wider incidence angle due to sun path – 1 % loss expected .
Soiling losses due to dust , SNOW etc – 1 % loss Mis Match effect losses- due to interconnection of
Solar Panels in series & parallel – Good quality panel to be procured .
MPPT ( Max Power Point Tracking) Losses - due to Changes in direction of sun , changes in solar insolations level with varying Temp
Inverter Efficiency depends upon Conversion of DC to AC – 96 to 98.5% .
Cabling losses due to improper joints etc . Transformer losses.
Proper selection of Modules Optimum angle of tilt Minimisation of Ohmic losess with proper
selection of conductors . Selection of Efficient Transformers & Inverters Energy output depends upon
- Temperature of the module decrease the output - Intensity of lights - Sun lights reflection on the surface but not on the modules - Defuse light - Changes in Sun spectrum in the day/ year , due to clouds, smoky, fogs etc - Materials used in Modules – Amorphous Silicon performance changes with aging
Mounting position of modules & Air circluation Inclination Angle - Tilting position of modules –
Fixed type- Non Tracking system Performance changes with aging . Temp Co Efficient –Changes in power out put with
Different Temp Typical value of Temp co efficient
Y( P mpp) Crystaline Modules -0.4 to 0.45 % K Y( P mpp) Amorphous Modules -0.2 to 0.23 % K Y( P mpp) CdTe Modules -0.24 to 0.25 % K
Thin film modules can give higher performance @ Elevated Temp compare to Crystaline silicon.
Module degradation occurs to Sun light - Slow Breakdown of Module encapsulant
( Ethelene Vinyl Acetate EVA & Back sheet Polyvinyl Flouride Films )
Moisture ingress leads to corrosion formation on Cable connectors and decreased voltage outputs
UV rays breaks down the EVA layer between Module Front Glass and silicon cells – Silicon cells outputs gets affected .
Discoloration of Panels . Degradation of silicon cells – Metastable
Dangling bonds – 15 to 20 % reduction in efficiency .
Sl No Description Life in Years
Remarks
1 Module 30
2 Inverter 15 Small plant
30 10% Parts replacement 2 Every 10 years
3 Structure 30 Roof Top
30 to 60 Ground mounted fixed in metal
4 Cabling 30
After 10 years – 90 % & After 20 Years -80 % efficiency noticed in modules
First 03 years of Operations No reduction in designed power output and then Yearly reduction of power output is 0.5 %
Software available – RETScreen (Free of cost), PVSyst23, Homer
Following analysis can be done :- -Energy Analysis-Emission Analysis-Cost Analysis-Financial Analysis-Sensitivity / risk Analysis
Performance of CUF depends upon :- Solar Radiation Temperature Air velocity Module type and materials used Quality of Module & cable joints etc Efficiency of Inverter &Transformer Thin Film Modules most suitable higher
ambient temp area . ( CUF around 19 to 20%) To compensate degradation loss after 3 years
add 5 KW module / MW in every year.
Sl No
Description Cost In Crore
% of Cost
1 Solar PV Modules 4.51 58.26873392 Solar Invertors 1.166 15.06459953 Transformers 0.294 3.798449614 Protective devices 0.12 1.55038765 Wire/cables 0.1 1.291989666 SCADA/RMS 0.1 1.291989667 Project Execution & Comm 0.2 2.583979338 Construction cost 0.4 5.16795866
9 Grid Evacuation @ 15 L /Km x 5 KM 0.75 9.68992248
10 Other official works 0.1 1.29198966 7.74 100
Loan amount @ 70 % of project cost 5.418 crore
Annual EMI (Including Principle + Interest @12PA= Rs 8,76,105 Lakhs / Month)
1,05,13,320 Crore
Annual OMS Charge & Staff Pay + Admin cost 20,00,000 Lakhs
Total Expense / year 1,25,00,000 Crore Revenue Details
Net Energy Produced in MWH 1655 MWH
PLF ( 1x24x365= 8760 MWH) / Year 18.8926%
PPA @ 7.50 KWH Cost 1,24,12,500 crore
Revenune due to sale of REC @12000 /MWH 1,97,59,180 crore
Net Cash Flow ( NCF) = ( PPA + REC cost ) 3,22,72,500 Crore
Net Balance Amount = ( NCF- Net Expense / Year) 1,97,59,180 Crore
Break even
7.74 / 1.97 crore( Total Project cost /Net Balance amount/ year)
3.92 years
Net Amount at the end of the 7 th year 13,83,14,260 crore
Net Amount at the end of the 10th year 19,75,91,800 Crore