Solid waste projections

The Future of Ireland‘s Environment3 December 2008

Seán LyonsEconomic and Social Research

Institute

Sean.Lyons@esri.ie

Outline

• Introduction• The ISus model• Behavioural parameters• Waste projections by type/sector

– Municipal– Construction & demolition– Hazardous– Industrial– Other

• Conclusions

Introduction

• ESRI developing a sustainable development research model, funded by the EPA’s STRIVE programme.

• Ireland‘s Sustainable Development Model

• Emissions and resource use up to 2025; alternative socio-economic & policy assump.

• Currently predicts emissions of 45 substances from 19 sectors

• Solid waste emissions divided by type (Hazardous, Biodegradable Municipal Waste, Other) and disposition (Recycled, Incinerated, Landfilled, Unknown)

The ISus Model

Baseline Emissions

Economic & DemographicForecasts

Behavioural Sub-Models

Policy Assumptions

Predicted Emissions by

Sector

IO Table

Predicted Emissions by Final Demand

Behavioural Parameters

Estimating behavioural parameters

• Projecting future emissions: how will economic conditions and policy choices affect behaviour?

• Some parameters based on Irish household or firm level data; others from international research

• Key influences on waste emissions: – Demographics, Income / Output– Accessibility/prices of disposal and

recycling options, other facilities

Behavioural parameters - 2

• Examples of waste parameters:– Elasticity of waste per household w.r.t.

disposable income = +1.08 (forthcoming)

– Avg change in waste per household due to weight-based charging: -45% (Scott & Watson, 2006)

– Price elasticity of household mixed waste disposal, weight-based = -0.27 (Scott & Watson, 2006)

– Elasticity of household recycling with respect to mixed waste price = +0.22 (Fullerton & Kinnaman, 2000)

Municipal Solid Waste

• Historical baseline: EPA National Waste Reports

• Demand drivers: # households, household size, disposable income, service sector output

• Prevalence of pay-by-weight and pay-by-volume charging; per unit charge where used

• In progress: effects of collection arrangements, e.g. kerbside collection of recyclables, use of three-bin system, etc.

Projections for Biodegradable Municipal Waste

Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; figures through 2006 are actuals

Recycling

Allowed landfill

Incineration

Excess landfill

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025

mil

lion

tonn

es

Construction and demolition waste

• EPA National Waste Reports give aggregate C&D waste figures

• Projections for future construction activity from HERMES

• Parameters are available for waste arisings per area of new building, by type of construction (e.g. residential)

• Model shows expected effects on construction waste of ongoing NDP spending and fall in housing construction

Projections for construction and demolition waste

Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; 2006 figure is actual

Productive infrastructure

Social infrastructure

Private non-residential

Residential - repair & maintenance

Residential - new

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

thou

sand

tonn

es

Projections for hazardous waste

Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; 2006 figure is actual

Chemicals

Construction

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

thou

san

d t

onn

es

Residential

Transport

Services

Construction

Fuel, power, water

Other manufacturing

Tranport equipment

Electrical goods

Office equipment

Machinery

Metal production

Mineral production

Rubber & plastic

Chemicals

Pulp & paper

Wood

Textiles

Food

Mining

Agriculture

Other waste categories

• Organic agricultural waste contributes most of the non-BMW, non-haz. category– Estimated at 60 million tonnes in 2004– No longer tracked by EPA, because not

defined as ‘waste’ in EU regulation– Mostly used to produce exports

• Disposition of much waste remains unknown– Especially C&D & household waste– Over 3 million tonnes in 2006, excl.

agriculture• Industrial waste is tracked in detail via

IPPC licensing system– However, microdata only available for

2001/4/6 in electronic form

Conclusions

• Big fall in C&D waste due to economic shift away from residential construction

• Hazardous waste to follow similar pattern, but likely to recover mid next decade

• Recession should slow or even halt growth in BMW for next couple of years, but EU targets from 2010 still hard to meet

• Huge organic agricultural waste stream no longer reported officially

• Other data gaps: MSW quantities, prices and services offered by collector/year; digitisation of historical AERs