Solution

MGMT E-5070

1st Quarter Forecastfor the

Fourth Year

Naïve ApproachTracking Signals

Tracking Signal ChartTracking Signal ChartNaïve ApproachNaïve Approach

Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

+ 3

+ 2

+ 1

0

- 1

- 2

- 3

UPPER CONTROL LIMIT

LOWER CONTROL LIMIT

NONE

TRACKING SIGNAL

TrackingSignal

TrippedUCL

1st Quarter4th Year

Forecast

2-QuarterMovingAverageTrackingSignals

Tracking Signal ChartTracking Signal ChartTwo - Quarter Moving Average ApproachTwo - Quarter Moving Average Approach

Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

+ 3

+ 2

+ 1

0

- 1

- 2

- 3

UPPER CONTROL LIMIT

LOWER CONTROL LIMIT

NONE

TRACKING SIGNAL

Tracking Signal

Tripped UCL

TrendLine

TrackingSignals

Tracking Signal ChartTracking Signal ChartTrend Line RegressionTrend Line Regression

Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

+ 3

+ 2

+ 1

0

- 1

- 2

- 3

UPPER CONTROL LIMIT

LOWER CONTROL LIMIT

TRACKING SIGNAL

Nar

row

CL

Wid

e C

L

Tracking Signal ChartTracking Signal ChartTrend Line RegressionTrend Line Regression

Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

+ 3

+ 2

+ 1

0

- 1

- 2

- 3

UPPER CONTROL LIMIT

LOWER CONTROL LIMIT

TRACKING SIGNAL

Solution

MGMT E-5070