some current challenges in setting up and operating … · 1 some current challenges in setting up...
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SOME CURRENT CHALLENGES IN SETTING UP AND OPERATING SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
OF LOW FLOWS IN SWITZERLAND
M. ZAPPA, S. MONHART, K. BOGNER et al.
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL.- [email protected]
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2 Jörg-Hess et al., The Cryosphere, 2015
REMEMBERING VIKTORSBERG: DATA DRIVEN APPROACHES USING MID-APRIL SWE FOR THE RHINE BASIN UP TO NEUHAUSEN
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SUMMARY VIKTORSBERG
• Challenging conditions in high mountains and small basins
• Low-flow predictions initialized with numerical weather predictions provide skilful forecasts
• The import of SWE observations at initialisation
– improves the predicted runoff volume
– improves SWE prediction for lead times up to ~ 20 days
• Good initial conditions help a lot (for low-flows)
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Current challenges (not specific to low-flow)
• Operational deployment of monthly forecasts
• Dealing with systematic errors of meteorological and hydrological forecasts
• Dealing with hydrological predictions adopting pre-processing and post-processing tools
• Extension of forecasts beyond day 32
• Identification of strategies for warnings
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PREVAH
USING HEPS FOR MONTHLY ENSEMBLE LOW-FLOW PREDICTIONS SINCE 2015
• Quasi operational since April 2015
• Assessment of deviation from climatology
• FOEN Basins (Aggregation to 1000 km2 set)
• Verification against reference run with observed meteorology
• Can be run 5 weeks after day 1
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VarEPS 5 members Q, SSM, SLZ
32 days forecast
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Forecast on July 16th 2015 Runoff anomalies Soil moisture anomalies
Drought & Flood Drought & Flood
6
LT 1 10 15 20 30
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Monthly reforecasts 2012-2016
Precipitation Discharge Low-flow Soil moisture
LT7 LT14 LT21
Bogner et al., WARM, submitted
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• ECMWF IFS cycle 40r1 (November 13 – May 2015):
– No updates during analysis period (May 2014 –March 2015)
– 20 years of re-forecasts with 5 members (hindcasts, 1994-2014)
1www.ecad.eu, Klein Tank, et al., 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature,. International Journal of Climatology, 1453, pp.1441–1453.
2https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/global-surface-summary-of-the-day-gsod
3 http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home/mess-und-prognosesysteme/bodenstationen/automatisches-messnetz.html
• Observational data (1637 sites):
• European Climate Assessment and Dataset project (ECA&D) 1
• Global Summary of Day (GSOD)2
• Swiss national observing system (SwissMetNet)3
Dealing with uncertain meteorological forecasts Bias correction
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Dealing with uncertain meteorological forecasts Bias of the direct model output
DJF mean temperature, lead day 12-18
DJF mean precipitation, lead day 12-18
Monhart et al., JGR-atm, to be submitted
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• Bias correction methods for daily corrections:
– Mean debiasing (MD)
– Quantile mapping (QM)
1
0
Temperature
15 12
Quantile mapping
Dealing with uncertain meteorological forecasts Bias correction
Raw
Mean debiasing (MD)
Quantile Mapping (QM)
Da
y 5
-11
Da
y 1
2-1
8
Da
y 1
9-2
5
Da
y 2
6-3
2
better than
Climatology
(CRPSS>0)
worse than
Climatology
(CRPSS<0)
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Comparison all stations vs. alpine only
All stations Alpine only
Tem
per
atu
re
Pre
cip
itat
ion
Monhart et al., JGR-atm, to be submitted
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PREVAH forced with post-processed meteorological forecasts
• Post-processing based on MCH 2km gridded observations
Verzasca catchment
Monhart et al., in preparation
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2-alternative forced choice Score (2AFC)
PREVAH forced with post-processed meteorological forecasts
Monhart et al., in preparation
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Methods
• Quantile Regression models combined with neuronal Network (QRNN)
– Direct quantile averaging (QRNN-q-avg)
– Averaging probabilities derived from approximated pdfs (QRNN-p-avg)
• Wavelet VectorAutoRegressive model (waveVARX)
Hydrological Post-processing
Data
• Streamflow forecasts based on the raw and pre-processed meteorological input
• Historical discharge (observed and simulated)
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Pre- and Post-processing
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Pre- and Post-processing
Monhart et al., in preparation
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Pre- and Post-processing
Monhart et al., in preparation
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Beyond day 32, MeteoSwiss monthly outlook
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It is an hard way ahead!
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“ … even a perfect tercile forecast
of seasonal total rainfall would
provide little to no indication of
the seasonal likelihood of
flooding.”
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Beyond day 32, the ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) based on climatology Operational for www.drought.ch since April 2017
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State of the art!
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Identification of strategies for warnings NZZ: 2. January 2017 Tricky: (seamless) combination of past information and extended range forecasts Flood: Event is ahead Drought/Low-Flow: event is ongoing
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SUMMARY RELOADED
• Challenging conditions in high mountains and small basins -> Pre- and Post-processing HEPS helps
• Low-flow predictions initialized with numerical weather predictions provide skilful forecasts - > confirmed
• Going beyond day 32 is close to gambling. “What if …? scenarios might be more useful for early awareness”
• Operational deployment of low-flow & drought monitoring system ongoing. Some new thinking needed to define levels of alert.
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SOME CURRENT CHALLENGES IN SETTING UP AND OPERATING SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
OF LOW FLOWS IN SWITZERLAND
M. ZAPPA, S. MONHART, K. BOGNER et al.
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL.- [email protected]
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TOWARDS MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS OF WATER RESOURCES IN SWITZERLAND
M. ZAPPA, S. JÖRG-HESS, K. BOGNER et al.
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL.- [email protected]