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Svetlana Yu. GlebovaSvetlana Yu. Glebova
Some features of reconstructions in atmospheric circulation over the Asian-Pacific region
in 2000-2006
Pacific Fisheries Research Centre (TINRO-centre), Vladivostok, Russia, 2006
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The winter monsoon The summer monsoon
Aleution Low
Siberian High Far East Low
Hawaiian High
General direction of the wind circulation over the Far East region in the different seasons
Сharts of sea level atmospheric pressure, averaged for the “cold” and “warm” seasons, have been used.
Condition of the main Atmospheric Action Centers as well as direction and intensity of wind transfer over the each far East Seas were defined.
“Cold” season (October-March)
“Warm” season (April-September)
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To estimate the intensity and direction of monsoon transfer over the Far East Seas, meridional Katz index of atmospheric circulation Im was calculated as a number of isobars crossing latitudes inside and onboundaries of the three areas (including the Bering, Okhotsk and Japan Seas), taken into account their orientation. The formula was used:Im = Is-In/N
Where:Is – a number of the isobars orientated from thesouth to the north; In – their number orientated from the north to the south.N – a number of the crossed latitudes
Actually, Im> 0 characterizes southern wind (summer monsoon), Im <0 characterizes northern wind (winter monsoon).
“Cold” seasons (October-March)
“Warm” seasons (April-September)
The meridional Katz indices werecalculated for three marked areasincluding each of the Far East Seas
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Synoptic conditions over theFar East Seas in the cold seasons (October-March)
2000-2006
Direction of moving of the Aleution Low in 2000-2006100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
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2000/2001
2001/2002
2003/2004
2004/2005
1030
1030
1025
1025 1025
1025
1020
1020
1015
1015
1010
1010
1005
1005
1000
1000
995
995
1030
1030
1025
1025
1020
10201015
1015
1010
1010
1005
1005
1000
2002/2003 2005/2006
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1030
1025
1025
1020
1020
1020
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1010
1010
1005
1005
1002,5
1020
1020
1020
1020
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1025
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1030
1015
1015
10101007,5
1035
1035
1030
1030
1025
1025
1020
1020
1015
1015
1010
1010
1005
1005
1000
1030
1030
1025
1025
1020
1020
1015
1015
1010
1010
1005
1005
HH
H H
HH
L
L
L
L
LL
L1007
1020
1015
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2003/04
2005/06
2000/01
2002/03
Year-to-year variability of a meridional Katz index (Im) (as indicator of a winter monsoon) in the Far East Seas in the cold seasons 2000-2006
Direction of moving of the Aleution Low in 2000-2006
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1030
1025
1025
1020
1020
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1015
1010
1010
1005
1005
H
LL
1007
Synoptic situation over theFar East Seas in the cold season 2005/2006
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2000/01
2001/022002/03
2003/042004/05
2005/06
Synoptic conditions over the Far East SeasSynoptic conditions over the Far East Seasin the warm in the warm (April-September) seasons 2000seasons 2000--20062006 Direction of moving of
the Far East Low in 2000-2006
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1010
1010
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1010 1015
10151009
1010
1010
1010
1012.5
1012.5
1012.5
1012.5
1015
1015
1020
1010
1010
1010
1012.5
1012.5 1015
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1010
1012.5
1012.5
1010
1010
1010
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1015
1012.5
1012.5
1010
1007.5
1010
1010 1015
1015
1017.5
1010
1010
10091010
1015
1015
1017.5
1017.5
H H
HH
H
H
H
HH
LL
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L
L
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L
L
L
L
L
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1020
1015
1015
1010
1010
1008
LH
2006
Direction of moving of the Far East Low in 2000-2006
Year-to-year variability of a meridional Katz’s index (Im) (as indicator of a
summer monsoon) in the Far East Seas in the warm seasons 2000-2006
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2003
2005
2002
20042001
2006
Direction of moving of the summer and winter Atmosphere
Action Centers in 2000-2006
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Far-Eastern Low(summer)
Aleutian Low(winter)
20032003/04
Year-to-year variability of ice cover (%) (from Ustinova et al.,2004) in the
Far East Seas in 2000-2006
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
S (%
)
Bering SeaSea of OkhotskJapan Sea
Intensity of the “northern wind transfer”
Bering Sea
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,52000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Sea of Okhotsk
-3,6
-3
-2,4
-1,8
-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Japan Sea
-3,6
-3
-2,4
-1,8
-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Intensity of the “northern wind transfer”
Bering Sea
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,52000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Sea of Okhotsk
-3,6
-3
-2,4
-1,8
-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Japan Sea
-3,6
-3
-2,4
-1,8
-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005
Im
Sea of Okhotsk
0,5
1
1,5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Im
Bering Sea
0
0,4
0,8
1,2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Im
Japan Sea
0,8
1,3
1,8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Im
Intensity of the “summerwind transfer”
What will be a climatic regime in the Far East Seas the nearest years?
Generalized synoptic situations appropriate to certain types of atmospheric processes over the Japan, Okhotsk and Bering
Seas (after Glebova,1999;2001)
The charts of surface pressure, averaged for 10-days, were used for classification of the atmospheric processes
Synoptic situations, at which over the Far East Seas “warm” and “cold”
winter types of atmospheric processes are formed
Repeatability of the "monsoon" summer types
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1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
The
quan
tity
of th
e 10
-day
s pe
riod
s
Japan SeaOkhotsk SeaBering Sea
Repeatability of the "cold" types
02468
101214
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
The
quan
tity
of th
e 10
-day
s pe
riods
Bering SeaOhkotsk SeaJapan Sea
Repeatability of the "warm" types
02468
1012
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
The
quan
tity
of th
e 10
-day
s pe
riods
Bering SeaOhkotsk SeaJapan Sea
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1000
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1005
1005
1010
1010
1015
10151020
1020
L HIIj
IIоIIb
The winter “cold” types
The winter “warm” types
Repeatability of the "monsoon" summer types
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1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
The
quan
tity
of th
e 10
-day
s pe
riod
s
Japan SeaOkhotsk SeaBering Sea
The summer “monsoon” types
Synoptic situations leading to formation of the different types of atmospheric processes over the Far East Seas
Year-to-year variability of the repeatability of the atmospheric types (quantity of the 10-days periods for year)
Total repeatability (per year) of the winter atmospheric processes causing strengthening (“cold” types) and easing (“warm” types) of
northern monsoon over the Far East Seas
The “cold” atmospheric types The “warm” atmospheric types
Japan Sea
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1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006Th
e qu
antit
y of
the
10-d
ays
perio
dsSea of Okhotsk
01234567
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006Th
e qu
antit
y of
the
10-d
ays
perio
ds
Bering Sea
01234567
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006Th
e qu
antit
y of
the
10-d
ays
perio
ds
The summer “monsoon” types
RealReal and and expected repeatability of the winter (expected repeatability of the winter (AA) and spring) and spring--summer summer ““monsoonmonsoon”” ((BB) atmospheric types over the Far East Seas in 2000) atmospheric types over the Far East Seas in 2000--2009 2009
AA BB
Japan Sea
1
5
920
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sea of Okhotsk
3
5
7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Bering Sea
1
4
7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
ConclusionConclusion
Wind transfer dependence on conditions of seasonal Atmospheric Action Centers is determined for Far East region.
When the Aleutian Low moves toward the West, intensity of winter monsoon decreases. Displacement of the Far East Low toward the East usually causes strengthening of southern wind transfer over the Far East Seas.
When these processes occur, a climate becomes warmer in the Far East region.
The latest this situation was in 2003-2005.
Since 2005, the both Atmospheric Action Centers began an opposite movement. Possibly, these changes in atmospheric regime are harbingers of cooling in the Far East region in the nearest future.
Thank for attention