THE CHALLENGE

Planetary Stability

for Eugene City Club

May 2, 2014

Tom Bowerman PolicyInteractive Research

www.policyinteractive.org

1

Some findings draw from Oregon Values & Beliefs Project-198 Questions using three surveys spaced 2 weeks apart

-Diverse range of topics: Economy, Education, Healthcare, Environment, Public Safety, Transportation, etc.

This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations.

2

IS GLOBAL WARMING A HOAX?

3

7%

10%

41%

53%

20%

30%

24%

9%

9%

7%

13%

9%

8%

63%

42%

8%

5%

9% 6% 15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Climate change fromhuman causes is a hoax

and not occurring.

Climate change is veryunsettled in scientific

evidence.

Climate change isoccurring and in the long

term the impacts willprobably becatastrophic.

Climate change isoccurring from human

causes like burning fossilfuels.

Strongly Agree Lean toward Agree Undecided Lean toward Disagree Strongly Disagree Don’t knowEugene Random Sample N=300 Source: DHM Research, PI Research, November 2011

HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT.

75% 15%

16% 78%

71%

4

World-view ItemsUsing A/B Forced-choice Style:

Which statement do you agree with more even if neither

represents your view exactly?(Ordering randomized & A/B item rotates)

5

7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Statement A Statement B Don’t know

72%

21%

Statement A:

Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply

Statement B:

If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later

Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q32 n=29716

Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern0%

20%

40%

60%

80%72%

76%72%

64% 62%

72%

21% 18% 20%28% 30%

21%

7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7%

Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem, we can deal with it later.

Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply.

Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)

S1-Q3277

S1-Q28 n=2971

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Statement A Statement B Don’t know

38%

53%

Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars

Statement B: We should invest more in public transit

Which statement comes closest to your view?

Tone Key:Light: Lean towardsDark: Feel strongly

8

38% 37% 39%45% 46%

38%

53% 55% 53%48%

45%

53%

8% 8% 9%7% 9% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern

Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars

Statement B: We should invest more in public transit

Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)

S1-Q279

10

Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change

Probability

5%

9%

13%

14%

33%

26%

0% 20% 40%

Don’tknow

Veryunlikely

Somewhatunlikely

Neutral

Somewhatlikely

Very likely

Desirability

5%

22%

18%

17%

17%

20%

0% 20% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S2-17

59% 37%

19%40%

11

3%

12%

10%

19%

28%

29%

0% 20% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

(How desirable or undesirable?)

There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

S3-Q46

57%

22%

12

3%

16%

10%

20%

29%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable $

Strongly desirable $$

(How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications)A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas

emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies

S3-Q48

50%

26%

13

(How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life

4%

6%

13%

16%

25%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Neutral

Somewhat Disgree

Strongly Disgree

S3-47

61%

19%

14

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

IPAT

15

16 Our country would be a better place if we all consumed less.

PI – Oregon Random Dial March 2008 n=400 moe 4.7%

36

51

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Strong Agree Agree Disagree Strong Disagree

Political Party Ideology ComparisonCompare - Global Warming : Consume less

PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector)

Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'

0102030405060708090

34

64

76 80

Republican n=128 Democrat n=228

17

18 Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & EnvironmentalistCompare Global Warming / Consume less

PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector)

Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'

0102030405060708090

45

6777 81

Ch. Conservative n=126 Environmental n=236

19

With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical

consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative?

- Dana O’Rourke, book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle

20

ATTITUDE A

BEHAVIOR B

X

21

ATTITUDE A

BEHAVIOR B

X

22

ATTITUDE A

BEHAVIOR B

X

23

ATTITUDE ADISSONANCE• Anxiety• Grief• Avoidance• Denial

BEHAVIOR B

XCONSTRAINTS• Habits• Norms (conformity)• Self identity• Ideology (social)• Desires• Physical constraints

24

24

“It is naive to ask consumers to voluntarily downscale, and give up their desires without offering

them alternative dreams.”Tim Jackson, Sustainable Development Commission, U.K.

One Measure of “hopes and dreams”: Life Satisfaction

All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays, with 1 being not satisfied at all and 10 being

completely satisfied?

(annual Gallup World Survey and many others, normally on 1-10 scale)

24

Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Nation (normalized) & Oregon Compared

USA Oregon

$47580$42360

17.5(t)

9.7(t)

7.4 7.5

Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction Index

Income: Per Capita/Yr. World Bank 2013 estimate (Atlas Method) Emissions: Tons CO2/capita EPA 2013 estimateLife Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation) PI 2008

2526

Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared

USA China Est. Sustainable Range

0

5

10

15

20

25

17.5 M Tons/

capita

7.7 M Tons/capita

2 – 5M Tons/capita

Met

ric T

ons

CO2

/ Cap

ita

Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

26

Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based

USA China Est. Sustainable Range

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 – 5M Tons/capita

Met

ric T

ons

CO2

/ Cap

ita

Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

19.7 t with

imports

5.2 t w.o

exports

28

29 Income/Emissions/Life SatisfactionFour Nations & Oregon Compared

USA Oregon Costa Rica New Zealand Sweden

$52,610

$44447

$8,820

$36900

$5612017.5(t)

9.7 (t)

1.6(t)

7.2(t)5.5(t)

7.4 7.5

8.5

7.8 7.9

Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction IndexIncome: Per Capita World Bank 2013estimate (Atlas Method), Oregon: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisEmissions: Tons CO2/capita 2012 World Bank & EPA for OregonLife Satisfaction:: Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation); Oregon PI Dec 09

COSTA RICA NOW

USA NOW

29

31

Thinking it through: • Push for Policy

• Live simply by being thoughtful, using lessLess money (correlation money = emissions)Less houseLess travel (air travel emits carbon)

• Know your emissions: “Oregon Carbon Calculator”• Think Globally, act locally

World citizenshipCommunity self reliance (&sharing economy)

29

32

33

Appendices:

1.Message Frame Testing2.OVB Public Policy Issues

34

Appendix 1: Message Frame Testing

City of Eugene Sustainability Goals 2012

35 (City of Eugene Sustainability Message Study N=790 Internet Survey, PI 2012)

Q4 Role of Consumption in Society

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Reduce consumption makelife less enjoyable

Consump. Necessary foreconomy, not bad thing

Reduce consump bad for longterm economy

Difficult to consume less,comparison to others

Lower emphasis onproduction & consumption

To much economic activitydepends on waste

Leads to consumer debt

Threatens Ecosystem

Disagree Agree

*

*

36

If thoughtful consumption means:• Share items with others• Purchase second hand if possible• Purchase locally when possible• Carefully consider environmental impacts• Purchase only what you need

Will lead to the following? (Disagree-Agree 5 pt.)

37Q6. “Thoughtful Consumption” could mean:

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Less excitement

Hurt economy

Work less

More time/learn new things

More time w/family & frends

Happier life

More financial security

Simpler life

Keep Oregon beautiful

Good example for others

Better life/future generations

Less waste

Str.Disagree LeanDisagree Neither LeanAgree Str.Agree

38

Eugene Message Frame StudyResults shown in order: Aggregated EWEB + City Employee (in bold font); EWEB

Residential Customer; City Employee. 5 Votes

summarized

Future Generations: We all have a responsibility to pass this place on to the next generation in at least as good a condition as we inherited it ourselves. Both our leaders and we our selves must do more to protect this planet for future generations.

872527345

Live by Example: Each and every one of us is a teacher by how we act. We need to set a good example for each other and our children by considerate and thoughtful behavior as it applies to care of the earth and equitable sharing of resources.

630401229

Oregon Pride: Oregon is a special place which has attracted people who care for the land and natural resources. We have long been a leader in green practices and we can leverage this reputation to set an example for other states. We need to continue to build on our leadership through smart environmental behavior.

412265147

Waste Not: Waste is a bad thing, and it is a by-product of thoughtless consumption. It is important to reduce the amount of waste we create by shifting behaviors to a more sustainable lifestyle and living more simply.

735480255

Do the Right Thing: I feel better about myself when I know I’m doing the right thing. Recycling, being careful to reuse things, and making purchases with thoughtfulness about consequences gives a sense of self-satisfaction.

616352264

39 Synthesized Message Frame CompetitionPI Feb 2012 N=692 - 5 votes per person, distribute any way, not required to use all votes

412

616

630

735

872

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Oregon Pride - environmentalleadership

Do the Right Thing - recyle, reuse,reduce

Live by Example - thoughtfulbehavior

Waste Not - sustainable lifestyle

Care for Future Generations -protect the planet

Appendix 2PUBLIC POLICY VIEWS

40

Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good

4%

3%

7%

40%

46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don’t know

Disagree Strongly

Disagree Somewhat

Agree Somewhat

Agree Strongly

S2-1041

There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following

statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5)

22%

44%

22%

28%

31%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

We don’t spend enough on publicservices and we should increase

some taxes

We spend about the right amounton public services and taxes should

remain the same

We spend too much on publicservices and taxes should be

reduced

2002 2013

42

Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time?

10%

25%

66%

16%

21%

64%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

No

Yes

2002 2013

S2-543

(How desirable or undesirable?)

Reduce government regulations

4%

11%

17%

25%

23%

19%

0% 20% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S3-Q23

42%

28%

44

(How desirable or undesirable?)

Reduce business taxes

4%

14%

21%

25%

21%

14%

0% 20% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhatundesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S3-Q27

35%

35%

45

Probability

43%

28%

38%

42%

43%

42%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Southern

Eastern

Central

W. Valley

Metro

Total

Desirability

84%

80%

83%

84%

85%

84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Southern

Eastern

Central

W. Valley

Metro

Total

Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the

critical issues we face as a stateCombined Very/Somewhat Responses

S3-Q2146