Sometimes Coastal Sciences is useful- cases from practice

Hans von Storch and colleagues

Institute of Coastal ResearchHelmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht

Gemany

27. Februar -2015 - Festkolloquium Kay Emeis, Hamburg

Based upon:von Storch, H., K. Emeis, I. Meinke, A. Kannen, V. Matthias, B. W. Ratter, E. Stanev, R. Weisse and K. Wirtz, 2015: Making coastal research useful - cases from practice. Oceanologica 57, 3-16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2014.09.001

Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested and subject to societal decision making processes.

While some coastal research can help informing and constraining such decisions, many legitimate scientific efforts have little bearing on society.

All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the dominant driver in such processes. Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform into real utility. These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.

Issues in Coastal Research with the potential of societal utility:

1. Making Sense 2. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)3. Monitoring4. Hazards, Risks and Opportunities 5. Scenarios6. More …

Making sense refers to the scientific understanding of complex phenomena, and its use for supporting societal framing and decision making.

Examples are consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation of natural system variations vis-a-vis anthropogenic climate change.

Novel or recurrent but threatening events in complex coastal environments can attract considerable attention in stakeholder groups and the public. Meaning-providing frames, which allow for causal interpretation and understanding, satisfy not only curiosity, but allow for engineering preparedness and options for specific stakeholders. A significant constraint is that science is not the sole supplier of such understanding, but other knowledge brokers are active as well.

Storm surges as recorded at the tide gauge St Pauli in Hamburg. The green horizontal bars indicate stipulated dike heights. Dike failures are marked by red stars. The color codes mark surge heights. Data provided by Gabriele Gönnert.

Making sense

What is the process behind the marked increase of storm surge heights in Hamburg since the 1970s?

Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg

Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level.

Consistency of recent local change:Storm surges in Hamburg

von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) describes the “public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been specified through a political process”.

MSP is an approach for deciding about competitive concepts of usage of coastal space. This process needs mostly quantitative information from natural sciences for project-specific technical planning exercises, but in addition social science needs to provide mainly qualitative information concerning societal and political context and structures to inform decision makers in strategic planning.

Coastal science is not doing MSP as such, but in research in conditions of how to implement MSP.

Monitoring aims at the assessment of the current status of the coastal environment and short term trends, and their (deterministic) short-term forecasts.

Such assessments are based on observations and related (model-guided) data analysis. The process of making data, assessments and forecasts available for users is also a challenge.

Coastal science is not doing the routine of monitoring as such, but in research on how to implement the process of monitoring.

Enabling MonitoringHow can we mix dynamical and empirical knowledge about surface currents in the German Bight?

Comparison of HF radar determined surface currents with an analysis using STOI, and a simulation with the same dynamical model, which is used in STOI, but without constraint with HF data.A snapshot in time of the 2-current field.A time series of radial velocities at a grid-point. (Stanev et al., 2014)

Assessments of hazards, risks and opportunities are needed for almost any kind of onshore and offshore operation.

An important component of this activity is the determination of ongoing long-term changes. For the assessment of negative outlooks and positive perspectives comprehensive and homogeneous data are needed.

The situation is particularly challenging, when too short, too fragmented or only inhomogeneous observed data are available. Then, sometimes, model-derived estimates can be used.

Hazards, risks and opportunities

How much of the lead, which was added to gasoline has ended up in the Baltic Sea?

Estimated annual depositions of lead into the Baltic Sea (black curve) plus estimated depositions derived from a number of limited observations. (von Storch et al., 2003)

Model results show that ships contribute 30—40% to the NO2 concentration in the Southern North Sea. At land, the contribution from ships decreases rapidly with distance from the coast; however, in Denmark for example, ships contribute 10—30% to the NO2 concentrations in the entire country.

Average NOx concentration in the North Sea area

Contribution of shipping emissions to the total concentrations

Volker Matthias, pers. contr.

GKSS in GeesthachtThe CoastDat data set:• Model generated data sets• Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and

coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe

• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions.

• extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea

Clients:• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and

coastal traffic• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations)

and opportunities (wind energy)• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and

options of change

Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change

Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]

Currents Power [W/m2]

Some applications of

- Ship design- Navigational safety- Offshore wind- Interpretation of measurements- Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution- Ocean energy- Scenarios of storm surge conditions- Scenarios of future wave conditions

Scenarios, differently to forecasts, address questions of the type “What may happen, if … and nothing else”.

Such projections provide a useful outlook for assessing consequences of possible future developments and uncertainties. Therefore scenarios have become increasingly popular in various scientific and decision making contexts.

ScenariosHow may ocean wave statistics change at the end of the century (2071-2100), compared to “today” (1961-2990)?

- general pattern: increase of HS from W / NW to E / SE; often decrease of HS in the N and W parts

- differences in both magnitude and details of spatial patterns

A1B_1C A1B_2C

B1_2CB1_1C

A2_E A2_H

B2_E B2_H

climate change signals (CCS) of significant wave height (m, long-term 99 percentiles)

isolines: long-term 99 percentiles of reference period

Grabemann, pers. Comm.

Nordsee

Watt

Marsch

Insel

Hauptdeich Brack- und SüßwasserÜberflutbarer Deich KompaktsiedlungEingedeichte Marsch Wohnhügel (Warft/Wurt)Überflutbare Marsch Hausboot

Marsch

1 km

Karsten Reise, pers. comm.

Science-Stakeholder exchange

Science-stakeholder interaction …

… entails not only information provision and contextualization of research findings, but also a self-reflection of the scientific actors. Science-stakeholder interaction becomes multifaceted and complicated.

Social and cultural science knowledge is urgently needed for a successful participation of science in the process of advising decision making.

Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation?

Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.

Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change

- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change- consensus of what is scientifically documented- documentation of contested issues.for+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 in print; public presentation in May 2015+ Hamburg region (#1 published November 2010; #2 just initiated)+ North Sea (in final phase)Full reports and condensed reports for general public.

Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports

Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162

Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested and subject to societal decision making processes.

While some coastal research can help informing and constraining such decisions, many legitimate scientific efforts have little bearing on society.

All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the dominant driver in such processes. Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform into real utility. These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.