sorry or safe

8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe

1/41


2/41

Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles


3/41

Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050


Lifestyles


4/41

What is UKERC? The centrepiece of the Research Councils Energy

Programme A world class centre for interdisciplinary whole

systems energy research (70+ researchers at 18Universities)

A bridge between the UK energy researchcommunity and the wider world of business, policyand international energy research Research Atlas (landscape, roadmaps, research register)

Energy Data Centre National Energy Research Network (587 members)

Meeting Place (15-20 events per annum)

Technology and policy assessment


5/41

UKERC II


6/41

May 1st

UKERC II

SupervisoryBoard

DirectorateAdvisoryBoard

Research

Committee

Research, coordinationand integration

CapacityBuilding

KnowledgeExchange

Networking

Communications

Research

Resources Atlas

NERNMeeting

Place

International

engagement

SPARKS

Jim Halliday, RALJen OtoadeseECI, Oxford

Jeff HardyUKERC HQ

UKERC HQ UKERCstudents

Publicoutreach

Website

Lex Young, UKERC HQ

Studentships SummerSchool

Administered by UKERC HQ

Energydemand

Energy andEnvironment

Energysupply

Energysystems

TPA

Nick Eyre(ECI, Oxford)

Nick Jenkins(Cardiff)

Carol Turley(PML)

Paul Ekins(KCL)

Rob Gross(Imperial)


7/41

Outline

Introducing UKERC Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050


Lifestyles


8/41

Capacity building UKERC Interdisciplinary PhD

studentships Annual competition for 5-7

PhDs

Must be interdisciplinaryresearch

Alumni of 30 students

UKERC Annual Energy

Summer School 100 UK and international

students

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/AboutUs/UKERCSummerSchool2009.

aspx


9/41


10/41

National Energy

Research Network


11/41

National Energy Research

Network aims to: be the first point of contact for anyone seeking UK energy

research information. develop a searchable database of members and an accurate

depiction of the UK research landscape in terms of research(Research Atlas), funders and policy.

where appropriate organise representation of UK research inspecific areas nationally and internationally, whether throughUKERC or others

organise events to bring members of the energy research

community together with an aim to facilitating a coordinating(e.g., FCH JU) or community building outcome (e.g. CarbonCrucible).


12/41

Meeting Place Facilitates UKERC events and

networking activities detailed planning of events,

including process design,facilitation, logistics provision andevent follow-up

A resource for all (UK)researchers

Organises between 15-20meetings per year

Expanding internationaldimension


13/41

an authoritative and comprehensive account of capabilities andunsolved research problems across the energy domain

Researchregisteran on-linesearchabledatabase ofenergy-relatedawards andprojects

Researchlandscapecharacterisingenergy-relatedresearch activitiesand capabilities inthe UK(programmelevel)

Researchroadmapsidentifying thesequence ofresearch (and other)

problems to beovercome beforenew technologiescan be commerciallyviable

National Energy Research Atlas


14/41

Outline


UKERC research

Energy 2050


Lifestyles


15/41

Research Challenges:

Driving systemic change in the

energy sector

Managing environmental

impacts

Energy security and resilience

A focus on how we

implement our aspirations

a focus on the mid-term

(2030)


16/41


17/41

Outline


UKERC research

Energy 2050


Lifestyles


18/41


19/41

UKERC Energy 2050 Project

Aims to show how the UK can move towards a

low-carbon energy system over the next forty

years .... the project focuses on the two primary

goals of UK energy policy achieving an 80 per

cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 and

ensuring that energy is delivered reliably


20/41

The Broad Approach No forecasts of the future

No best or preferred futures

Acknowledging uncertainty

Exploration of choices & trade-offs we face ifthe primary energy policy goals CO2reduction and security - are to be met

Combining underpinning scientific insightswith integrating, modelling tools andapproaches


21/41

Energy systems and whole

systems...

The UK energy system......

the set of technologies, physical infrastructure,institutions, policies and practices located in andassociated with the UK which enable energy services to

be delivered to UK consumers.

also...

... the UK energy systems interconnections with theglobal energy system, the natural environment andwider society.


22/41

Core Scenarios

REFReference

(firm and fundedpolicies as of EWP

2007)

RResilient

LC

Low carbon

LCR

Low carbon resilient

Resilience

LowC

arbon

ENERGY SYSTEM ATTRIBUTES


23/41

Workstreams

A whole systems approach.... Pathways to a low carbon energy system

Lifestyle change

The natural environment: values, impacts and tradeoffs

Technology acceleration and innovation

De-centralised energy Energy security and resilience


24/41


25/41

The Energy Mix Oil virtually disappears from the energy mix by 2050 in any 80% CO2reduction scenario

In most scenarios, electricity demand is much higher in 2050 than it is

now. There are exceptions: lifestyle change leads to lower energy demand

demand is constrained on the grounds of energy security

Environmental concerns rule out certain electricity generation options, pushing up thecost of supply side action

Nuclear power, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) canall play a role in the electricity generation mix

In our scenarios, renewables deployment takes place, but more slowlythan envisaged in the EU renewable energy framework

The use of electricity and perhaps hydrogen, as opposed to bio-energy,in transport and other sectors depends on taking a long-term view ofinvestment


26/41

Carbon Targets and Scenarios

Scenario ScenarioName

Annualtargets

(reduction)

Cumulativetargets

Cum.emissions

GTCO2 (2000-2050)

2050emissions

MTCO2

REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5

CFH Faint-heart15% by 202040% by 2050 - 25.67 355.4

CLC(=LC-RCEP)

Low-carbon26% by 202060% by 2050

- 22.46 236.9

CAM(= LC)

Ambition(Low-Carbon

Core)

26% by 202080% by 2050

- 20.39 118.5

CSAM Superambition

32% by 202090% by 2050

- 17.98 59.2

CEA Early action32% by 202080% by 2050

- 19.24 118.5

CCP Least costpath

80% post2050

Budget(2010-2050)similar to CEA

19.24 67.1

CCSPSocially

optimal leastcost path

80% post2050


19.24 178.6


27/41

Reference Case CO2 Emissions

Note: 1 tCO2 = 44/12 tC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

M

t-CO2

Sectoral Emissions

Hydrogen

Electricity

Transport

Services

Residential

Industry

Agriculture

Upstream


28/41


29/41


30/41

Target Cases: Power Sector

Note: 1 PJ = 0.278 TWhr = 0.024 MTOE

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

200

0

35-

B

35-CF

H

35-CL

C

35-CA

M

35-CSAM

50-

B

50-CF

H

50-CL

C

50-CA

M

50-CSAM

PJ

Electricity generation mix Storage

Solar PV

Marine

Imports

Biowaste & others

Wind

Hydro

Oil

Nuclear

Gas CCS

Gas

Coal CCS

Coal


31/41

Cumulative Cases: Transport Fuels

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000

35-CAM

35-CEA

35-CCP

35-CCSP

50-CAM

50-CEA

50-CCP

50-CCSP

PJ

Transport fuel demand

Ethanol/

methanolBio-diesel

Jet fuel

Hydrogen

Electricity

Diesel


32/41

Key Messages Carbon pathway scenarios offer insights on technology,

resource and demand pathways

Without major new policy intervention, climate goals will notbe met

Power sector decarbonisation is critical Higher target levels produce a deeper array of mitigation

options, albeit probably with more uncertainty

Early action produces greater mitigation in different sectors

(e.g. transport) and technology chains (e.g. wind, H2) Very wide range of economic impacts

CO2 marginal costs in 2050: 20 - 360/tCO2 Welfare costs in 2050: from B5.0 - B52.0

Convexity in costs as targets tighten

A longer-term view of a low-carbon energy systemrequires infrastructure and capital intensive solutions

Early action is unlikely to be achieved solely via a CO2 priceincentive, hence requiring additional policy measures

h l l


33/41

Technology Acceleration Technology acceleration has a major impact on preferred

decarbonisation pathways, esp. after 2030: much biggercontributions from accelerated low carbon technologies

Overall, provides cheaper low-carbon power, transport and heating.This means less long-term pressure on other ways to decarbonise

e.g. demand reduction

The overall costof achieving 80% decarbonisation is significantlyreduced by technology acceleration, especially after 2030.

Or, a way to decarbonise more deeply, after 2030, for the sameoverall cost

Average benefits over next 40 years are just under 1bn p.a.

Limited short term effect so emphasis is on more maturetechnologies and demand-side responses in shorter term, but withmuch expanded RD&D investments in the meantime

Also, non-economic drivers for accelerated deployment notfactored-in here

These will increase deployment in the shorter term, andpromote learning


34/41

Lifestyle conclusions

Lifestyle change in households andtransport can produce a combination ofenergy service demand change andefficiency improvements that:

reduce energy demand in these sectors by more

than 50% below baseline levels by 2050 reduce national energy use and carbon emissions

by ~30% below baseline

increase the share of electricity in final demand,

but reduce the need for massive electrification tomeet tough carbon targets

reduce the cost of delivering a low carbon energysystem by up to 70 billion


35/41

UK Energy Research [email protected]

+44 (0)20 7594 1572www.ukerc.ac.uk


36/41

Additional slides


37/41

Modelling Tools System level models

MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED): a technology rich linearoptimisation model of the integrated UK energy system,

including a wide range of supply and demand side responses E3MG: econometric model, which can be used to forecast

changes in economic structure, the energy system andassociated environmental impacts

Network Industry Models

WASP: Wien Autonomous System Planning Model electricity generation planning (mixed integer programming)

CGEN: Combined gas and electricity network non-linear

Energy Demand Sectoral Models

UKDCM: Domestic buildings carbon model

UKNDCM: Non-Domestic buildings carbon model

UKTCM: Transport and carbon model

UK MED M d l


38/41

UK MED Model A least cost optimization model based on life-cycle costs of

competing technology pathways (to meet energy demandservices)

Technology rich bottom-up model

An integrated energy systems model Physical, economic and policy constraints

Emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

MED Endogenous energy

service demands

Own price elasticity:(D/D0) = (P/P0)

-E

Maximises total societalwelfare (producer plusconsumer surplus)

38


39/41

Core Scenarios:


40/41

Core Scenarios:

Common Assumptions Underlying economic growth and demand for energy

services

2% GDP growth in the long-term

Global energy prices

oil at $65-70/barrel

The availability of energy sources

Technology costs and learning rates

Investment decision criteria

a 10% real rate of return, higher in sectors where there are

barriers to take-up

Policy measures embedded in the Reference scenario weuse the firm and funded policies in the 2007 Energy WhitePaper as a baseline

C b T t d S i


41/41

Carbon Targets and Scenarios

Scenario ScenarioName

Annualtargets

(reduction)

Cumulativetargets

Cum.emissionsGTCO2 (2000-

2050)

2050emissions

MTCO2

REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5

CFH Faint-heart

15% by 2020

40% by 2050 - 25.67 355.4CLC(=LC-RCEP)

Low-carbon26% by 202060% by 2050

- 22.46 236.9

CAM(= LC)

Ambition(Low-Carbon

Core)

26% by 202080% by 2050

- 20.39 118.5

CSAM Superambition

32% by 202090% by 2050

- 17.98 59.2

CEA Early action32% by 202080% by 2050

- 19.24 118.5

CCP Least costpath

80% post2050


19.24 67.1

CCSPSocially

optimal leastcost path

80% post2050


19.24 178.6

sorry or safe

Documents