soutenance stratégie du marketing viral sur facebook-v4_en

Viral Marketing Strategies on Facebook

Analysis, experimentations and case studies on initial seeding populations

Ph.D. dissertation defended by Nasri Messarra, on Dec. 08, 2015 before the following jury:Anne Mione Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier

Directeur de thèse

Christine Balagué Maître de Conférences HDR, Telecom Ecole de Management, Paris

Rapporteur

Gilles Paché Professeur à l'Université d'Aix Marseille

Rapporteur

Frédéric Le Roy Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier

Examinateur

Gilles N'Goala Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier

Examinateur

Laurence Saglietto Maître de conférences HDR à l'Université de Nice

Examinateur

UPDAT

ED Aug

ust 24

,

2016

http://www.umontpellier.fr/

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Context

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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

• 1 400 000 000 users on Facebook (Social Bakers, 2015)• 936 000 000 daily active users (Social Bakers, 2015)

• Positive mobilisation: the “ice-bucket challenge”, 2 400 000 user generated videos on Facebook (Phing & Yazdanifard, 2014), $98 200 000 in donations against $2 700 000 usually (BBC News, 2014)

• Negative mobilisation: Pampers, Nestlé, Caribou, Bershka… (Fournier & Avery, 2011) – Procter & Gamble’s shares drop by 27% (Bloomberg, 2010)

• Brands have to consider the positive and the negative impact of virality on online social networks and identify the means to control marketing strategies in this new promising but dangerous environment.


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LiteratureContexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Graph theory (Euler, 1786; Harary, 1969) and its applications in sociology (Granovetter, 1973)

The value of a social network (Reed, 2001)

The diffusion of information (Hinz & al., 2011; Smith & al., 2014)

Virality (Hinz & al, 2001; Booth & Matic, 2001; Bampo & al., 2008)

Initial seeding populations (Hinz & al., 2011; Watts & Dodds, 2007; Liu-Thompkins, 2012)


Research Problem

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How to create initial seeding populations to optimize viral marketing strategies on Facebook?

Viral MarketingStrategy

The Messenger (Valente, 2010)

Message / Content

(Rowley, 2008)

Network Structure

(Bampo, 2008)

Initial seeding populations (Liu-

Thompkins, 2012)

Behavior of the recipients

(Arndt, 1967)


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Met

hod,

Exp

erim

ents

and

Wor

k in

pro

gres

s

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats DiscussionViral Marketing Strategies on FacebookInitial Seeding PopulationsNasri Messarra, Work in Progress, 2016

Opti

mizi

ng In

itial

See

ding

Po

pula

tions

Soci

al N

etw

orks

and

M

arke

ting

Usin

g In

itial

See

ding

Po

pula

tions

for D

iffus

ion

Synthesis: Facebook channels and marketing strategies

- to be published in Proche-Orient Etudes en management, Nov. 2016 -

Spartacus Experiment: is a network of hubs a good seeding population?----- EURAS Proceedings, 2012 -----

--- Article to be written ----

Experience 3: Easily Influenced People to diffuse NWoM

---- INSNA, 2014 ---- ---- Dauphine, 2014 ----

---- JAR – Rejected third review ------- to be resubmitted to another

journal ----

Experience 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook-- Marketing Science Conf., 2015 --

- rejected by JEM: The paper presents a case comprising very interesting insights into online social networks from a political perspective and a self-developed social media

analytic tool. You have done your research quite well. However, I am very sorry to inform you that your paper due to its political subject and, in particular, the problem it addresses

(identifying political bridging nodes) does not fit in the scope of the Journal Electronic Markets -

Experience 5: SWT and Personal Branding on

Facebook---- ICTO, 2016 ----

---- Best paper Award ------ Submitted to MKSC (8/

16) -

Experience 1: Can we recreate Facebook users social graph?

---- Article on fake Profiles as a diffusion vector --

---- Article on ethics in research on OSN (Chapter 2 of the thesis) –

paper in progress

Friend or Brand? The choice of Facebook channel for viral marketing- The article was rejected by JIM: The paper contains some interesting ideas,

but does not far enough [ ] Some proof of concept is needed. -

A two years experiment has been conducted and the article will be

resubmitted in 2 months


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Experiment 1: Rebuilding the hidden network of friends of Facebook users


Prob

lem

Can we rebuild the network structure of the hidden friends of a Facebook user?

Met

hod

4 real and 4 fake profiles using the “mutual friends” function

Resu

lts

Between 4% and 28% of the social graph of each user is rebuilt


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The “Spartacus” experiment – Is a network of hubs a good seeding population?


Prob

lem

Can we create a network of hubs around a fake profile?Will this network be a good seeding population (Hinz & al.)?

Met

hod

Creation of a fake profile that sends requests to “somebodies” (Booth & Matic) only.2 steps experiments (2 years and 4 years).

Resu

lts

264 friends attracted after the critical mass of 200 friends.A fake profile is not a good vector for information diffusion.


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Experiment 3: The determinant role of the initial seeding population in the diffusion of NWOM


Prob

lem

Can a population of « easily influenced people » (Watts & Dodds) diffuse NWOM efficiently?

Met

hod

Attraction of 300 engaged consumers to a network of friends.Diffusing negative posts to this newly created population

Resu

lts

Virality increase of 400%

Messages Négatifs Sur la page de l’entreprise

Sur les faux profils Différence

Fans engagés 11 37 +236%Engagement (likes, commentaires)

15 77 +413%

Reciprocation (communication d’utilisateur à utilisateur)

0% 14.8% +14.8%


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Experiment 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook


Prob

lem

Can we find political bridging nodes on Facebook to use as an initial seeding population to diffuse new ideas (Burt)?

Met

hod

A triangulation system between the networks of 3 politicians of different orientations

A network of more than 15,000 users with 300,000 connections between them

Resu

lts

3,839 bridging nodes found between the two main political groups in Lebanon


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Synthesis: Rethinking marketing on FacebookPr

oble

mResearch and pratice are focused on viral marketing on Facebook without consideration for the channel used (pages, groups, Profiles) M

etho

ds

We create pivot tables and consider several marketing techniques on different Facebook channels Re

sults

Marketing method

Facebook Profiles

Facebook Groups

Facebook Pages

Mass X

Niche X

Viral X

Relational X X

Viral Marketing Criteria Timelines (Personal) Groups PagesContent1 Yes Yes YesNetwork Structure2 Yes Limited LimitedBehavior of the recipients3 Can be anticipated Can be anticipated Can be anticipatedSeeding Strategy4 Yes Limited to No Limited to BroadMessenger5 Yes Yes UntrustedScore 5/5 3/5 2/5


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A case of personal branding: Modifying the initial seeding population over time

Prob

lem

Can we optimize the seeding population of a Facebook brand over time?

Met

hod

We modify the network structure and the initial seeding population with every new post by introducing weak ties to the network (Granovetter, Burt) and rejecting friend requests from strong links.

Resu

lts

A significant increase of engagements (likes, comments, shares) over two years.Statuses are shared and republished in news papers.Statuses published in a book

N Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation

Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic

Likes 103 5225 20.65 18.819

Comments 31 1160 4.58 5.143

Shares 32 323 1.28 3.606

Valid N (listwise) 253


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Cont

ribut

ions • Initial seeding populations on Facebook

• Negative WoM on Facebook• Viral marketing• The creation and use of fake profiles on Facebook

Theoretical

• Different methods to extract and use social graphs on Facebook

Methodological

• Viral marketing strategies on Facebook with optimization of the channel and initial seeding populations

• A personal branding strategy on Facebook• Suggestion of new marketing strategies to use on Facebook

on different channelsManagerial



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Limits• Experiments on a Lebanese population: cultural differences?• Some experiments limited to a few hundred people. The need to

push the experiments further on larger populations, different situations, etc.

• The need to better understand the reactions of Facebook users in each experiment.

• The need to convert the experiments to mathematical models.• Our experiments bring answers to some problems but opens the

door to many questions. The need to push forward…



soutenance stratégie du marketing viral sur facebook-v4_en

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