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PEDRO H DEJNEKA
MD COMMODITIES
SOUTH AMERICAN AGRICULTURE
AMBITIONS AND PROSPECTS
BLACK SEA GRAIN 2019 KYIV, UKRAINE
APRIL 2019
AGRICULTURE IN SOUTH AMERICA
• Vast availability of land • Implementation of new technologies • Highly competitive exports due to weaker local currencies and
improvements in logistics • Political changes (Argentina + Brazil) • Highly capitalized farmer after years of high margins All combine to make South America an ever-growing power in world agriculture. There will be trials and tribulations along the way, but the continent’s agricultural prowess is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. Large production and competitive exports, mainly of soy and corn, will place the “burden” of high carryover stocks on current/former leading suppliers such as the U.S. This could keep a lid on international prices for longer than expected, barring weather surprises along the way…
32,8 41,6 38,5
54,8 70,0
55,0 40,0
25,0
12,2
12,5 12,9
13,6
13,6
13,0
28,0 45,0
72,9%
76,8% 74,9%
80,1%
83,7%
80,9%
58,8%
35,7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2019 (2) 2020
Dest
ino
[%]
TOTA
L EX
PORT
S (M
Ts)
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS CHINA vs OTHERS
CHINA OTHERS
4,10 5,50
2,00
5,00
3,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (1)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: BRAZIL
80,41 95,82 98,56
107,17
110,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (1)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: WORLD
5,35 8,23
11,93
26,00
32,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (1)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: U.S.
5,35 8,23
11,93
26,00
14,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (2)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: U.S.
4,10 5,50
2,00
5,00
18,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (2)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: BRAZIL
80,41 95,82 98,56
107,17
110,00
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 (2)
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS: WORLD
CAN BRAZIL FILL CHINA SOYBEAN DEMAND?
BRAZIL:
THE COUNTRY WHERE THINGS WORK EVEN WHEN THEY ARE
NOT SUPPOSED TO.
“O JEITINHO BRASILEIRO” AKA
“THE BRAZILIAN WAY”
BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN EXPORT VOLUME (MMT’s) Yearly Growth: Northern Arc x Other Ports
102%*
472%*
13,2% 15,3%
12,6% 16,7%
22,2% 23,2%
27,9% 30,1%
36,3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN EXPORTS Northern Arc Share
OTHER PORTS
NORTHERN ARC *T
otal p
erce
nt gr
owth
from
2011
to 20
18
4 5 5 8 12 12
19 25
29 28
37 37 42 39
49 58
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*2019 – Jan to Feb
1 1 2 2 6 5
12 11
8
20 23
19 25
13 18
12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
46%*
1.243%*
BRAZILIAN CORN EXPORT VOLUME (MMT’s) Yearly Growth: Northern Arc x Other Ports
OTHER PORTS
NORTHERN ARC
8,8% 6,7% 9,0% 11,5%
19,8%
27,2%
39,7%
47,2% 53,2%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
BRAZILIAN CORN EXPORTS Northern Arc Share
*Tota
l per
cent
grow
th fro
m 20
11 to
2018
*2019 – Jan to Feb
AVERAGE FREIGHT FROM CENTRAL MATO GROSSO
TO SANTOS PORT $ 88
AVERAGE FREIGHT FROM CENTRAL MATO GROSSO TO ITAQUI PORT
$ 40
THE AVERAGE DISTANCE FROM CENTRAL MATO GROSSO TO THE NORTHERN ARC IS ALMOST 50% LESS THAN TO THE SANTOS PORT
THE AVERAGE DELIVERY TIME TO EUROPE FROM THE NORTHERN ARC IS 5 TO 7 DAYS LESS THAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTS.
THE AVERAGE DELIVERY TIME TO CHINA (TROUGHT PANAMÁ) FROM THE NORTHERN ARC PORTS SAVES THE SAME 5-7 DAYS OF TRAVEL, COMPARED TO THE SOURTHERN PORTS
LAND DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL
BRA – PLANTED ÁREA EVOLUTION [MI/HA]
43,649
67,936
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
2025
/26
2026
/27
2027
/28
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
AREA GROWTH PROJECTION – BRAZIL
75 300
115,000 140 000
29 951
70 000
91 200
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
BRAZIL SOYBEANS POTENTIAL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS INTO 2024
PRODUCTION EXPORTS
46 200
13 839 13 088
9 206 10 575
7 026
2 112
11 000
13 500 14 500
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
ARGENTINA SOYBEANS PRODUCTION & EXPORTS INTO 2024
PRODUCTION EXPORTS
HOW ABOUT ARGENTINA?
135 814
174,000
218 000
46 106
85 774
110 500
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
220 000
SOUTH AMERICA - SOYBEANS POTENTIAL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS INTO 2024
PRODUCTION EXPORTS
STATISTICS SAY THAT ONLY 1 IN EVERY 4 MEN IS TRULY HAPPY
STATISTICS DO NOT LIE! … …
Дякую THANK YOU! OBRIGADO!
PEDRO H DEJNEKA MD COMMODITIES
CELL / WHATSAPP: +1 540 841 1078
SKYPE: PHDBRASIL