south bristol link 7udqvsruw (frqrplf report · 5103087/5103087 sbl economic case report...

South Bristol Link Transport Economic Report May 2013

5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx

South Bristol Link

Economic Report

May 2013

Notice

This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for North Somerset Council’s information and use in relation to the South Bristol Link.

Atkins Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents.

Document History

JOB NUMBER: 5103087 DOCUMENT REF: SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx

Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date

1 Draft LW GB TM GB 23/05/13


Contents

Section Page

1. Introduction 3

Background 3

The Scheme 3

Purpose of this Report 3

Structure of this Report 3

2. Scheme and Cost 4

Scheme Specification 4

Zone 1: A370 Long Ashton Bypass to A38 Bridgewater Road 4

Zone 2: A38 to Queens Road 5

Zone 3: Queens Road to Hengrove Park 6

Investment Costs 7

Operating Costs and Commercial Viability 8

Maintenance and Construction Delay 8

3. Economic Appraisal Results 9

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) 9

Appendices

Appendix A – TEE TABLE 10


1. Introduction

Background 1.1 Bristol City Council and North Somerset Council in partnership are delivering the South Bristol

Link (SBL), a major transport scheme to address current and future transport problems in the

south Bristol area.

The Scheme 1.2 The proposed development comprises the construction of a section of highway 4.5 kilometres in

length from the A370 Long Ashton bypass within North Somerset to the Hartcliffe (Cater Road)

Roundabout within the Bishopsworth area of South Bristol. This incorporates the minor

realignment of sections of existing highway at Highridge Green, King George’s Road and

Whitchurch Lane. The entire route is to be classed as an Urban All-Purpose Road (UAP) in

accordance with TA 79/99.

1.3 The route includes the construction of new junctions with the A370, Brookgate Road, A38,

Highridge Road, Queens Road and Hareclive Road. New bridges will be constructed to cross

Ashton Brook, Colliter’s Brook and to pass under the Bristol to Taunton Railway Line. The route

corridor will incorporate a bus-only link to connect with the Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (AVTM)

spur into the Long Ashton Park and Ride site, and dedicated bus lanes between the railway and

the new A38 roundabout junction. New bus stops and shelters, and a continuous shared

cycleway and footway will be provided along the route corridor. Associated proposals include

drainage facilities, landscaping and planting.

1.4 The route will form part of the West of England rapid transit network (Metro Bus) and will be used

by buses and other motorised vehicles. The route will link with the AVTM at the Long Ashton Park

and Ride site, and within the South Bristol section, once buses have reached the Hartcliffe

Roundabout, services will follow existing roads via Hengrove Way to Imperial Park and onwards to

Whitchurch Lane and Hengrove Park.

Purpose of this Report 1.5 The purpose of this report is to set out the economic case for the South Bristol Link, providing a

clear description and summary of the value for money of the scheme.

Structure of this Report 1.6 The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 summarises the scheme and includes a breakdown of the revised estimated

cost of the scheme;

Chapter 3 sets out the scheme benefits and costs, focusing on the economic appraisal.


2. Scheme and Cost 2.1 This chapter summarises the SBL scheme and provides a breakdown of the revised estimated

cost. Investment costs are presented in outturn prices, with annual operating and maintenance

costs shown in 2012 prices.

Scheme Specification 2.2 The proposed development comprises the construction of a section of highway 4.5 kilometres in

length from the A370 Long Ashton bypass within North Somerset to the Hartcliffe (Cater Road)

Roundabout within the Bishopsworth area of South Bristol. This incorporates the minor

realignment of sections of existing highway at Highridge Green, King Georges Road and

Whitchurch Lane. The entire route is to be classed as an Urban All-Purpose Road (UAP) in

accordance with TA 79/99. Figure 2.1 shows the proposed route alignment.

Figure 2–1 Proposed SBL Route

Zone 1: A370 Long Ashton Bypass to A38 Bridgewater Road

2.3 Zone 1 is a 2km section of the route which links Long Ashton to the A38 at Castle Farm via

Brookgate in Ashton Vale. As part of this route, the road will have to pass underneath the Bristol

to Exeter railway line and this will require the provision of a new underpass. Details are provided

below:

A new roundabout junction will be constructed on the A370 near Long Ashton. A dedicated

left turn lane will be provided in a southbound direction on the A370, allowing traffic to access

the SBL route without passing through the new roundabout junction.

From this roundabout, a single-carriageway, two-way, 40 mph, highway will run south-

eastwards for approximately 1.5km to meet the A38 (Bridgewater Road) at a new signalised


roundabout junction. This alignment will follow a route defined in the North Somerset

Replacement Local Plan.

Between the A370 and the A38, a signal controlled junction at Brookgate will give access to

Ashton Vale.

A ‘bus only’ link will be provided between the Long Ashton P&R site (linking with the AVTM

Rapid Transit spur) and the new signalised junction at Brookgate. From the Brookgate

junction to the A38, nearside bus lanes will provide dedicated provision which is segregated

from general traffic in either direction. Both the new A38 Bridgewater Road and Brookgate

signalised junctions will include bus priority measures.

A new cycleway/footway will be provided on the eastern side of the carriageway between the

A370 (connecting to Festival Way cycle track) and Brookgate. This links to further provision

from Long Ashton Park and Ride to the A38. Controlled pedestrian / cycle crossing points are

integrated into the Brookgate traffic signals to link these two sections of shared cycleway /

footway. Signalised crossing points are also integrated into the proposed signalised junction

formed by the A38 and SBL.

Zone 2: A38 to Queens Road

2.4 Zone 2 is a 1.5km section of the route which links the A38 at Castle Farm to Queens Road in the

residential areas of Bishopsworth. Details are provided below:

From the new signalised roundabout junction formed with the A38, a new single carriageway,

two-way, 40mph carriageway will extend eastwards. In proximity to Highridge Farm, the

design speed will reduce to 30mph, as the carriageway enters the residential area to the

east. It will cross the northern extent of Highridge Common before connecting to King

Georges Road via a new four arm signalised junction formed with Highridge Road.

The existing alignment of Highridge Green, which currently connects to Highridge Road and

King George’s Avenue at its eastern extent, will be stopped up. The road will be realigned to

connect to the SBL via a new priority junction in proximity to Sandburrows Road. It will

include a dedicated right turn ghost island on SBL to stop blocking back on the carriageway.

The existing access to Highridge Cottage to the south of Highridge Green will be closed up

and a new access will be provided from the new SBL carriageway via a new three arm

priority junction.

King Georges Road will comprise a single carriageway with a 1.5m wide flush median with

contrasting surfacing colour. All existing trees are to be removed but will be replaced with

native small leaved lime cullivar. The existing residential accesses over the grass verge on

either side of the carriageway will be retained with verge parking formalised, however on-

street parking will be removed.

The SBL route connects with Queens Road / Grange Road to the east at a new signalised

four arm junction.

Bus priority will however be provided at the A38, Highridge Road and Queens Road traffic

signals.

A new shared footway / cycleway will be provided on the northern edge of the new

carriageway linking the A38 to King Georges Road. This will be connected to signalised

pedestrian / cyclist crossing points integrated into the new traffic signals at either end of this

section of the route;

Signalised crossing points will be provided on the northern arm of the A38 and western arm

of the SBL link at the Bridgewater Road junction.


Signalised crossing points will be provided on all arms within the residential area at the

junction formed between the SBL and Highridge Road.

Existing footways on King Georges Road, set back from the carriageway behind the grass

verge will be retained. The footway on the northern side of the carriageway will be converted

to a 3m wide shared cycleway / footway. Five pedestrian refuge islands will be provided at

regular intervals on King Georges Road. These kerbed crossing points will be 2m wide.

Signalised crossing points will be provided for pedestrians and cyclists on all arms of the

SBL, Queens Road and Grange Road junction.

Zone 3: Queens Road to Hengrove Park

2.5 Zone 3 is a 3km section of the route which connects Queens Road in Bishopsworth to Hengrove

Park via Imperial Park. It will use both new and existing carriageway provision. Details are

provided below:

From the new four arm signalised junction formed with Queens Road / Grange Road, the

SBL will extend eastwards on a new single carriageway, two-way road subject to a 30mph

speed limit. This section of carriageway will utilise a reserved transport corridor (defined in

both the North Somerset Replacement Local Plan and the Bristol City Local Plan) to connect

to Hareclive Road via a new four arm signalised junction.

The new signalised junction will connect the new SBL link (western arm), the realigned

Whitchurch Lane (eastern arm); and Hareclive Road (northern and southern arm).

Whitchurch Lane currently runs west-to-east linking Bishopsworth Road/Church Road to

Hengrove Way. Hareclive Road connects from the south via a three arm priority junction. The

proposals will involve the provision of a new SBL link running east from the new signalised

SBL junction. This link then forms a further signalised junction with the existing Whitchurch

Lane alignment (adjacent to the Cater Business Park).

At the new four arm signalised junction formed with the SBL, turning movements will be

restricted as follows;

SBL Link (western arm): Ahead Only to Cater Road Roundabout,

Hareclive Road (northern arm): Ahead Only to Hareclive Road south,

Whitchurch Lane Link (eastern arm): Ahead Only to SBL Link; and,

Hareclive Road (southern arm): Ahead and Left Only to Hareclive Road north and

SBL.

At the new three arm signalised junction formed between Whitchurch Lane and the SBL new

link road, turning movements will also be restricted as follows;

SBL (western arm): Ahead only to Cater Road Roundabout,

Whitchurch Lane (northern arm): Left only towards Cater Road Roundabout,

SBL (eastern arm): Ahead and Right to SBL Link and Whitchurch Lane.

At the existing priority junction formed between Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane all

movements will continue to be permitted.

SBL provision for general traffic will terminate at the Cater Road roundabout, with vehicles

able to connect to existing highway provision.

From the new Queens Road signalised junction, buses will continue to share the single-

carriageway provision with general traffic. Services will follow the new highway connection to

the Cater Road roundabout junction.


Existing footpaths cross the reserved transport corridor between Queens Road and Hareclive

Road linking the residential areas to the north and south. It is proposed to create a linear park

on either side of the SBL route in the residential area and to provide for pedestrians and

cyclists through the provision of;

A shared use cycleway / footway through the park on the northern side of the SBL route

between Goulston Road and Gatehouse Avenue, and a footway on the southern side,

A toucan crossing connecting Goulston Road and Gatehouse Avenue via Comleaze and

Gatehouse Way,

Uncontrolled crossings linking Heggard Close with Innox Gardens, Selley Walk with

Gatehouse Close and Acresbush Close with Gatehouse Court.

The 3m shared cycleway / footway will be provided along the entire length of the northern

side of the SBL route between Queens Road and Cater Road roundabout.

An existing signal controlled pedestrian crossing located near to the food superstore on

Whitchurch Lane will be retained. Pedestrian phases will also be integrated into the new

signalised junctions at Queens Road, Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane. Existing

footways will be re-provided adjacent to Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane in accordance

with the new alignment.

Investment Costs 2.6 Table 2.1 shows the estimated investment costs for the SBL. Key points to note for the economic

appraisal are:

The Local Authorities are contributing £15.445m (in outturn prices) to the project.

For this appraisal, £3.191m (in outturn prices) of Third Party Contributions has been

identified;

The scheme cost is £45,241,235, excluding inflation, which is thought to be 1,736,416, but is

considered directly within TUBA.

Table 2.1 – Summary of SBL BAFB Risk-Adjusted Investment Costs

Cost Item Scheme Cost Spend Period (Financial Yr)

Engineering works £27,229,238 2014-2016

Land and environment costs £2,594,000 2014-2016

Preliminaries £2,594,992 2014

Part 1 Claims £2,310,000 2014-2016

Preparatory £7,544,904 2011-2014

Risk Budget £2,968,100 2014-2016

Total £45,241,235

2.7 The investment costs presented in Table 2.1 have been profiled by financial year based on the

following assumptions:

Engineering works spend profiled in line with the proposed construction programme prepared

for the BAFB;

Land purchase will take place during 2014 and 2016;


Site supervision and risk profiled in line with the engineering works spend profile; and

Preparatory costs incurred between 2011 and 2014, assuming statutory process costs are

incurred mainly during 2013.

Operating Costs and Commercial Viability 2.8 The following items were added to capital costs to calculate the total Present Value of Costs

(PVC) of the scheme.

Ongoing maintenance costs associated with the new infrastructure;

Ongoing additional bus operating costs covering bus purchase, vehicle running costs, driver

wages and other related costs; and

Periodic renewals associated with the scheme required throughout the 60 year appraisal

period

Operating Costs

2.9 Operating costs take into account factors such as driver and other staff costs, fuel, other vehicle

operating costs, insurance and licensing. This has been assumed at £415,745 per year.

2.10 Bus operating costs were assumed to grow at 4.5% p.a. between 2015 and 2020 (after which

growth was assumed to revert to general inflation, due to the difficulties and uncertainties of long

term economic forecasting).

2.11 The private operators would be liable for these costs. As the forecast levels of revenue generated

by the scheme for the RT operators was greater than the costs of running the services, no subsidy

payments have been assumed.

Fleet Costs

2.12 The additional Ashton Vale to Hengrove service increased the required fleet size by 2 vehicles.

Increases in frequencies of other existing services meant there was a further requirement for one

further bus.

2.13 The cost of ownership of these extra vehicles were applied as an incremental purchase cost,

occurring in the opening year and then every 15th year, as the vehicles need replacing. No real

cost increases were applied. The cost over sixty years was assumed to be £2,555,961.

2.14 As for other operating costs, these payments were assumed to be made by the bus operators with

no subsidy provided, since the revenue generated will more than cover the costs.

Maintenance and Construction Delay 2.15 Construction delay costs have not been calculated as the construction of the SBL would be

undertaken either completely off-line or in such a way/time as not to delay existing road users.

2.16 No maintenance delays have been calculated.


3. Economic Appraisal Results

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) 3.1 The BCR for SBL is 5.89 and offers very high value for money, with details of its derivation

shown in Table 3.1. The latest benefit cost ratio includes data from the latest SBL model, which

has a base year of 2012 and includes scheme costs from May 2013.

3.2 Details of the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) Table are shown in Appendix A and this

excludes reliability and wider impact benefits.

Table 3.1 – Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (Planning Application)

Item £m, 2002 prices discounted

Greenhouse Gases 1.056

Accidents -4.587

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting and Other)

85.193

Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers

89.301

Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues)

-1.744

Reliability Impact: Business Users 14.051

Reliability Impact: Commuting and Other Users

16.189

Wider Impacts 24.950

Net Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 224.410

Local Government Funding 15.211

Central Government Funding 22.913

Net Present Value of Costs (PVC) 38.124

Net Present Value (NPV= PVB-PVC) 186.286

Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR=PVB/PVC)

5.89


Appendix A – TEE TABLE


Economy:Economic Efficiency of the Transport System(TEE)

Consumer - Commuting user benefits All Modes

Travel Time 89,098

Vehicle operating costs 2,352

User charges -834

During Construction & Maintenance 0

NET CONSUMER - COMMUTING BENEFITS 90,615

Consumer - Other user benefits All Modes

Travel Time -5,630

Vehicle operating costs 0

User charges 207

During Construction & Maintenance 0

NET CONSUMER - OTHER BENEFITS -5,423

Business All Modes Personal Freight Personal Freight Personal Freight

Travel Time 94,854 45,794 53,009 -462 0 -3,487 0

Vehicle operating costs 6,419 1,464 4,955 0 0 0 0

User charges -443 -195 -72 0 0 -176 0

During Construction & Maintenance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Subtotal 100,831 47,064 57,892 -462 0 -3,663 0

Private Sector Provider Impacts

Revenue -2,036

Operating costs -7,631

Investment costs 0

Grant/subsidy 0

Subtotal -9,667

Other business Impacts

Developer contributions -1,862

NET BUSINESS IMPACT 89,301

TOTAL

Present Value of Transport Economic

Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 174,494

Note: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers.

Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2002, in 2002 prices

Public Accounts

Local Government Funding ALL MODES

Revenue -649

Operating Costs 2,845

Investment Costs 14,877

Developer Contributions -1,862

Grant/Subsidy Payments 0

NET IMPACT 15,211

Central Government Funding: Transport ALL MODES

Revenue 0

Operating costs 0

Investment costs 22,913

Developer Contributions 0

Grant/Subsidy Payments 0

NET IMPACT 22,913

Central Government Funding: Non-Transport

Indirect Tax Revenues 1,744

TOTALS

Broad Transport Budget 38,124

Wider Public Finances 1,744

Note: Costs appear as positive numbers, while revenues and developer contributions appear as negative numbers.

Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2002, in 2002 prices

Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits

Greenhouse Gases 1,056

Accidents -4586.526321

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) 90,615

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) -5,423

Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers 89,301

Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -1,744

Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 169,220

Broad Transport Budget 38,124

Present Value of Costs (PVC) 38,124

OVERALL IMPACTS

Net Present Value (NPV) 131,096

Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 4.44

Note: This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in

transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant

costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis

presented above does NOT provide a good measure of value for money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions.

94,379 -2,284 -2,997

2,352 0 0

-469 0 -365

Road Bus Rail

Road Bus Rail

0 -3,537 -2,092

0 0 0

96,262 -2,284 -3,363

0 0 0

0 -3,537 -1,885

0 0 0

0 0 207

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 -2,593 557

0 -7,631 0

Road Bus Rail

-649 0 0

0 -10,223 557

-1,862 0 0

-1,862 0 0

0 0 0

2,845 0 0

14,877 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

15,211 0 0

Road Bus Rail

0 0 0

22,913 0 0

22,913 0 0

0 0 0

2,039 -442 147

2,039 -442 147

38,124 0 0

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