south east european virtual climate change centre - roles...
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South East European Virtual Climate Change
Centre - Roles and activities in support Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster
Reduction in SEE
37th EWGLAM and 22th SRNWP Meeting, Belgrade, Serbia, October 2015
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Political agreement
UNECE “Environment for Europe”
2007
WMO
RA VI RCC-Network
WCRP (CORDEX, …)
SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional
SEE cooperation in climate related issues
2007UNFCCC
Programme for Adaptation
WCRP (CORDEX, …)
Under considerationPartners
SEEVCCC + SEE CCFAP (Action Plan)
Adaptation
MoE-Serbia REC
Geo-Modelling RGGM
University of Belgrade Oxford
BiH FYROMMNE SRB
NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs
CIMA
ALB…
initiative of several interested countries for MoU
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WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC
Mandatory operational functions:
● Climate Data Node
Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)
●●●● Climate Monitoring Node
Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)
• collecting data from the stations (monthly, 400-500 stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC)• mean temperature and accumulated precipitation,• temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal,• all available monthly/three-monthly
South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)
●●●● Long Range Forecast Node
• all available monthly/three-monthly
Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC
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RCC Highly recommended functions:
SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System Development
NCEP NMMB atmospheric model● global/regional/local● global/regional/local
● hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic
Aerosol ↔ radiation
Aerosol ↔ cloud
HYPROM Hydrology
model
DREAM Dust• Sea salt• Carbon
• Pollution
model
Ocean model
Fe and P nutrients
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SEEVCCC Emerging Technologies (Seamless Climate-Weather Prediction: Weather and Climate Time Scales)
Short- to Medium -Range Seasonal Forecasts Long -Term
SEEVCCC available technologies:
Medium -Range Weather
Seasonal ForecastsShort-Term Climate
Long -TermClimate
0-14 days months to seasons decades to century
SEEVCCC available technologies: ● NCEP NMM-B: Unified Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (Zavisa Janjic, NCEP)● POM (Vladimir Djurdjevic, Borivoj Rajkovic, Belgrade University)● DREAM: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (Slobodan Nickovic,RHMSS)● HYPROM: Hydrology prediction model (Nickovic, RHMSS)
………………….
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Enhanced capacity of the SEEVCCC to support DRR and Climate Change Adaptation in SEE– SEEVCCC/RHMSS Weather and Climate Prediction and Warning Framewor k
Forecast Uncertainty
Scenarios Climate Change. Centuries
Fore
cast
Le
ad
Tim
e
Weather
Forecasts
Assessments
Outlook
Prediction
y
Initial
Conditions
Boundary
Conditions
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Weather
Climate Variability
Anthropogenic
Forcing
CWA
Warnings & Alert
Weather
Applications
Tra
nsp
ort
ati
on
Pro
tect
ion
of
Life
& P
rope
rty
Ae
ron
au
tica
l
Ap
pli
cati
on
s
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Sta
te/L
oca
l
Pla
nn
ing
Env
ironm
ent
Pu
bli
c
We
ath
er
Se
rvic
es
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Wat
er
Res
ourc
e P
lann
ing
Ene
rgy
Fore
stry
Hyd
ropo
wer
Wa
ter
Ma
na
g.
He
alt
h
Minutes
Hours
Adapted from: NOAA
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SEEVCCC Future Plans
�Implementation of mandatory functions within WMO RA VI RCC-Network;
�Implementation of RCC highly recommended functions trough Implementation of Long Term Research and Developm ent Plan adopted by Expert SEE – Meeting and Ministerial conference “Climate Researc h by Expert SEE – Meeting and Ministerial conference “Climate Researc h Aimed at Environmental Protection, Climate Change A daptation and Disaster Reduction”, held on 13th April 2011 in Bel grade;
�Use of other existing RCMs in climate change resear ch and climate impact studies;
�Collaboration in further application and improvemen t of Climate Watch Advisory System; Advisory System;
�Setting up of SEECOP and CB activities;
�Enhancing of sub-regional cooperation and partnersh ips;
� Contribution to GFCS, WCRP, IPCC, UNFCCC, WMO/RCOF- SEECOF, WMO/DRR, WMO/WIS …
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