south east london sub-region strategic housing market assessment jonathan lee chris broughton...
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South East London sub-regionStrategic Housing Market Assessment
Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton
Opinion Research Services
Issues for Discussion…
•What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London?
•What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses?
•Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region?
•What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market?
•How might things change over the longer-term?
Presentation Overview •Introduction
•Current housing market
•Population growth
•Migration and economy
•Recent market changes
Introducing ORS •Generic social research organisation
– Spin-out company from Swansea University
– Established in 1988, not primarily commercial
– 40 full-time staff
– Specialise in quantitative and qualitative research methods
•Research includes
– Housing & planning – SHMAs, need/demand analysis
– Health – promotion/primary/secondary care
– Local government – Panels/BVPI/employees
– Emergency services – police and fire
•Greater London Authority– Regional SHMA 2008
•Quality Reviews for EERA and GOEM– Identifying good practice in Strategic HMA work
•Further Strategic HMA work– Bedfordshire, LCB East, LCB West, Milton Keynes,
Greater Norwich, Exeter/Torbay, West Cornwall, Birmingham, South East Wales, Neath Port Talbot
•Over 60 further local housing studies
•English Partnerships– Accredited consultants for SHMA work
Housing Research Portfolio
The PPS3 Vision SHMA SHLAA
Housing Trajectory & Mix
Annual Monitoring Report
Housing & PDL Targets (Local & Regional)
PLAN
MONITOR
MANAGE
What is an SHMA?
•The Vision
– a key tool to inform policy and help shape strategic thinking in housing and planning
•The Basics
– a robust evidence base
– promotes joint working
– not a snap-shot survey but an ongoing process
– provides estimate of the need for affordable housing and demand for market housing
– helps understand requirements of niche groups
• ‘an exercise of judgement, rather than a simple analysis of factual material’ (North West RSS EiP Panel Report 08 05 07)
Approach in South East London
•Household survey
– personal interviews
– addresses selected at random
– detailed interviews
– overall sample size = 7,250 households– Bexley 1,250 – Bromley 1,250 – Greenwich 1,500
– Lewisham 1,500 – Southwark 1,750
•Secondary data analysis
•Stakeholder engagement– Developers – RSLs – Estate and Letting Agents
– Private Landlords – Housing Front-line Staff – Planners
– Supporting People Commissioners – Lenders – HEIs
– Business Community – Neighbouring Authorities
Different Levels of SHMA Impact
•Regional
– Developing regional housing policy evidence base
– Informing Regional Housing Strategy reviews
– Assisting with reviews of Regional Spatial Strategy
•Sub-regional
– Deepening understanding of housing markets at the strategic (usually sub-regional) level
– Developing an evidence base for sub-regional housing strategy
•Local
– Developing an evidence base for Local Development Documents
– Assisting with production of local Core Strategies
OVERVIEW OF THE AREACurrent Housing Market
Index of Multiple Deprivation
Source: CLG
Housing Tenure
Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis
Private Rented Stock: 2001
Source: SHMA 2008
Private Rented Stock: 2008
Source: SHMA 2008
South East London:
Current demographics compared to all England
Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate
Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate
South East London:
Projected population growth to 2001-26
Source: GLA 2007 Round Population Projections
Increase in Number of Dwellings2001-2007
Source: Census 2001, VOA 2007
MIGRATION AND LOCAL ECONOMYHousing Market Drivers
International Migration2001-06
Source: ONS Migration Unit
UK Migration 2002-2007
Source: NHS Central Register
Number of SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007
Source: NHS Central Register
Net SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007
Source: NHS Central Register
Net Migration2001-06
Bexley Bromley Greenwich Lewisham Southwark
UK
In-migrants 51,800 74,900 70,800 80,800 88,700
Out-migrants 52,700 75,000 81,000 102,700 116,800
Net Change -900 -100 -10,200 -21,900 -28,100
International
In-migrants 3,800 9,400 17,200 22,400 43,100
Out-migrants 3,300 10,400 10,700 9,900 16,200
Net Change +500 -1,000 +6,500 +12,500 +26,900
TOTAL -400 -1,100 -3,700 -9,400 -1,200
Source: ONS Migration Unit
Household Income:
Existing vs. Migrant Households
All Households
In-migrants Out-migrant
Household Income Mean (£ pa)
Bexley 34,200 38,700 38,900
Bromley - - -
Greenwich 32,000 47,200 42,400
Lewisham 37,400 41,100 42,100
Southwark 29,900 36,100 38,000
Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis
Household Income
Source: SHMA 2008
Household Income:
Households with Incomes less than £20,000
Mean Income
Median Income
% under £20K
Household Income (£ pa)
Bexley 34,200 25,800 40%
Bromley - - -
Greenwich 32,000 22,200 48%
Lewisham 37,400 19,200 52%
Southwark 29,900 16,800 56%
Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis
Employment Sector Trends
Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey
Employment Sector Trends
Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey
HOUSING COSTSHousing Market Drivers
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Prices are now falling very fast
More to come
Plus…
Loss of new build premium
New home prices down by 20-40%
Source: Nationwide, Halifax
with a big hit to turnover – particularly take up of new homes
most notably amongst
• investors• first time buyers
Source: HBF, Bank of England
Fastest falls are in the South of England
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Scotla
ndNor
th
N.Wes
t
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s
E.Mids
W.M
ids
Lond
onY&H UK
S.Eas
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S.Wes
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lia
Pric
e G
row
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Change in last year Change from peak
Source: Nationwide to Sep 08
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q41998
Q41999
Q42000
Q42001
Q42002
Q42003
Q42004
Q42005
Q42006
Q42007
Q42008
% N
et B
alan
ce
Rental growth New rental instructions Tenant demand
Source: RICS
Underlying demand is still there
But…Higher supply is leading to rental weakness
Issues for Discussion…
•What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London?
•What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses?
•Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region?
•What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market?
•How might things change over the longer-term?