south florida natural resources center review of current ... · south florida natural resources...

South Florida Natural Resources Center

Review of current Everglades ecosystem, landscape, and hydrodynamic models and

potential applicability to evaluate climate change effects

David Hallac1, Chris Madden2, and Amanda McDonald2

1South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park2Everglades Division, South Florida Water Management District


What might change?

• Physical parameters:– Rainfall, Up – Down?– Water depth, hydroperiod– Dry-down intensity, duration, and frequency– Salinity, water chemistry parameters– Air and water temperatures– Tropical storm intensity and frequency


What about the biological organisms?

• All estuarine organisms • Uplands may convert to wetlands – coastal

forests, tree islands, pine rocklands• Species with extreme sensitivity to hydrology• Species with cues based on temperature and

salinity


Do we have any models that can be used to predict potential effects on habitat?

• Seagrass production model• Across Trophic Level System Simulation

(ATLSS)• Habitat Suitability Indices (HSIs)• SWFL Feasibility Estuarine Models• Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow HIE


Coastal Salinity and Water Quality Simulations

Hamrick (2006)


63 models!


Environmental effects on seagrass growth

(PAR)0 1000 2000

1

15 25 35Temperature (°C)

0

1

Temperature Effect

Salinity Effect1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Phosphorus Concentration (uM)0 1 2

1Phosphorus Uptake 1

0 5 10 15Nitrogen Concentration (uM)

0 1 2

1Nitrogen Uptake

Halodule

Thalassia

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th

P vs I

Sulfide Toxicity


Changes in seagrass productivity with changing salinity

Salinity output from FATHOM Cosby et al. (2005)SAV from Madden et al. (2006)


NewP

Recycled P

C:PC:chla

Net Settling

5%

Grazing ~10%

Advection 2%

SAV

epiphytes

Phytopl

Sediment P

Below ground

Sediment OM

Resus

Remin P Fate

50%~100%

Bound P Available P (Kelble 2007 - NOAA)


(Tarboton et al. 2004)


00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

1965 1975 1985 1995

Year

Scal

ed N

umbe

r of C

ycle

Alt3Alt4Alt5Alt5rAlt7r5eEastEnp85bWestb013105

(Donalson 2006)


(Dong and Donalson 2006)


Sensitivity to temperature and salinity

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

14 18 22 26 30 34 38Degrees C

Map

ped

Valu

es

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

14 18 22 26 30 34 38

Degrees C

Map

ped

Valu

es

Spawning Female Blue Crabs (Barnes et al. 2006)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

PPT

Map

ped

Valu

es0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

PPT

Map

ped

Valu

es

IPCC (2007): 2° - 3° or 5°


The toads are running…

Oak Toad Salinity Component

0

0.5

1

1.5

< 5 >= 5

HSI

Oak Toad Salinity Component

0

0.5

1

1.5

< 5 >= 5

HSI


Additional Modeling Needs• Disease• Migration• Exotic species• Fragmentation/Dispersal Vegetation Succession• Species interactions• Fire frequency, duration, and intensity• Adaptability• Other rare species – forgotten fauna


Rare Plant Species• 12 Endangered coastal

plants (state listed)• Institute for Regional

Conservation lists 14 as extirpated or “critically imperiled”

• Easy to model with information on salinity- and flooding-tolerance

Chromolaena frustrataENDEMIC to S. Florida


Fire


High ground – future biodiversity hotspots…

(Pearlstine et al. 2008)


Summary• Identify areas of potential habitat

transition• Prioritize areas for conservation• Relative risk of species extinctions• Biodiversity Hotspots• Assist with regional conservation

strategies for individual species• We have the tools to do the job, but we

need input scenarios

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