South Louisiana:

Do We Accept Global Warming?

Edward P. RichardsProfessor of LawLSU Law Centerrichards@lsu.edu

Thesis Worldwide, hard choices need to made

about global warming and adaption The US must lead by example Most of south La will be inundated by 2100 Are we denying global warming by our

actions in South LA?

2100

Is 2100 Realistic? Green house gasses have a long residence

time, so there is a 30-50 year lag It will be decades before there are

meaningful reductions Southern LA is on a sinking crustal plate,

so we have been losing ground independent of ocean rise

Can Coastal Restoration Save

Us?

Coastal Elevations

What Happens if you Restore The Coast? Imagine a large, very flat coastal plane, that is

barely above sea level even 25 miles inland The plane is sinking and the water is rising What happens if you pile up dirt on the edges? Does this affect the net distance above sea level

inland of the edges? What happens to the marshlands that depend on

the long flat low water areas?

What about Levees? Destroy the land on both sides Cannot resist hurricanes

Katrina did not hit NO, just brushed it Structural issues Feds and state will lose interest Damage to wetlands to get the clay Require maintenance - LA? USA?

The Dutch do not have hurricanes

Possible Future 1 - Punctuated Catastrophe Southern LA and NO continue on current lines Feds put in enough money to limit criticism and

keep projects going Everyone says we are safe now Region has catastrophic flood Relative sea level continues to increase Repeat until there is nothing left to rebuild on

Example to the World Same thing is happening in Bangladesh We are trying to avoid regional war over

where the refugees will go India says, what are you doing in LA?

Why don't you build levees and restore our coast?

Can the US say that is crazy and cannot work?

Possible Future 2 Same as 1, but some local adaptation like

floating houses, but no real changes Catastrophic storm Population scatters, this time we restrict

development, make some land use changes to protect the core

Buys 50 years for the rich and business Still not a very good example

Possible Future 3 We think of south LA and NO as if it were

one of those island nations that is going to either wash away or be relocated.

We preserve NO-Atlantis We create cultural NO up river We just move Cajun country north toward

Eunice and Opelousas, where it already flourishes

How Do We Get to 3? Reimagine land use

Charge mitigation against owners ???

Change Incentives in Flood Insurance You can get bought out before you flood You can never rebuild

You fill in the rest - this is intergenerational This is what we want to work on at LSU