south whidbey school district no. 206 levy planning 2011 2012 2013
TRANSCRIPT
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNING 2011 2012 2013
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline
Enrollment History/ProjectionsEnrollment History/Projections
Actual Actual Actual Actual Est Projected Projected Projected Projected ProjectedEnrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment
Grade 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
K 60.79 44.02 48.72 47.33 40.96 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
1 111.25 132.98 94.29 102.94 97.67 88.67 85.36 84.94 84.79 84.84
2 151.99 118.91 136.93 99.09 95.04 100.77 90.52 86.33 85.58 84.70
3 153.79 158.99 112.42 133.56 95.17 95.83 99.47 88.29 84.71 84.08
4 123.15 148.54 160.89 105.77 123.43 93.01 92.38 95.85 84.23 81.04
5 143.32 122.85 140.10 156.59 102.26 120.04 90.28 89.17 92.95 81.62
6 145.18 143.43 126.02 148.85 150.80 102.93 121.45 91.53 90.20 93.08
7 164.16 149.83 143.97 130.73 147.82 153.39 104.65 123.10 92.96 91.22
8 155.08 170.76 150.21 153.37 123.51 148.84 155.22 105.31 123.96 92.53
9 217.54 165.16 174.20 153.95 145.27 124.64 150.82 155.68 105.26 123.27
10 173.78 220.02 160.31 172.58 153.27 143.04 123.47 148.77 154.06 104.14
11 171.86 150.66 199.33 147.55 154.72 136.26 128.13 111.31 133.99 138.14
12 159.42 167.88 160.29 204.31 157.29 156.04 140.08 133.04 115.00 138.65
Total 1,931.31 1,894.03 1,807.68 1,756.61 1,587.22 1,503.46 1,421.83 1,353.33 1,287.70 1,237.32
Change (76.69) (37.28) (86.35) (51.07) (169.40) (83.76) (81.63) (68.50) (65.62) (50.38)
5 Yr CohortHISTORY
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline Washington’s EconomyWashington’s Economy
The 2009-11 Budget Story
Where we’ve been and
where we are now
Prepared by the Office of Financial ManagementNov. 19, 2009
Overview
Over past 18 months, Washington has seen largest drop in revenue in recent memory.
Last session, we closed $9 billion shortfall through: cuts to programs and services use of Recovery Act funds fund transfers, including Rainy Day Fund
As revenue projections continue to decline, we will need to cut more to stay in balance.
Reduction options are limited by constitutional and federal spending mandates. This will narrow our choices.
04/19/23 8
$9 Billion Problem by March 2009
• Before recession, $3 billion problem projected for 2009-11 due to health care inflation, K-12 growth, prison population growth, pension obligations.• Problem grew with recession, resulting in $6 billion loss in revenue fromFeb. 2008 - March 2009.
04/19/23 9
Solving $9 Billion Gap:Actions to balance budget
04/19/23 10
Other States in Same Predicament
48 states have addressed or still face shortfalls for FY2010. 49 states had total tax revenue fall during 2nd quarter; 36 report double-digit declines. 25+ states face new shortfalls after balancing budgets just months ago.
04/19/23 13
Sources of $2.6 Billion Shortfall
Revenues dropping $686 million June forecast $238 million September forecast $760 million November forecast $154 million Tax lawsuit pending $1.84 billion Subtotal
Costs rising, issues emerging $659 million increased demand for health care, schools, prisons $12 million forest fires, landslides, dam failures, other
possible emergencies $71 million lawsuits blocking planned cuts $742 million Subtotal
04/19/23 14
What Should We Expect?Revenue uncertainty continues
According to state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council:State revenues will lag economic recovery
Job growth will lag economic recovery
Unemployment will remain high
Less revenue expected in 2009-11 than collected in 2007-09
04/19/23 15
Higher Ed:Fed. Require. 8%
Majority of $31 Billion Budget Is Protected:Tied to state constitutional or federal requirements
16
K-12 Basic Education 41%
Debt Service/ Pensions 7%
Mandatory Medicaid/Foster
Care 14%
Other Human Services
17%
Higher Education 1%
General Government/Other
5 %
Other K-12 2%
70% of the Budget Is Protected
Corrections5% Not protected
$9.3 billion
Protected $21.6 billion
Possible Areas for More Cuts:Non-Protected Budget
• Mental health and developmental disabilities services: $1.6 billion
• Prisons/community supervision of offenders: $1.6 billion
• Care for low-income elderly: $1.3 billion • Economic support for low-income families: $1.1
billion • K-12 non-basic education funding (class size
reduction, others): $635 million • Higher education: $500 million (most is financial aid) • Juvenile corrections: $198 million
Protected
Subject toreductions
04/19/23 17
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline Washington’s EconomyWashington’s Economy
Retirement RatesRetirement Rates
TRS Rates Skyrocket Over Current Biennium
Employer Contribution Rates
Plan
2009-10 SY &
2010-11 SY
2011-12 SY*
2012-13 SY*
2013-14 SY*
2014-15 SY*
PERS 5.29% 8.44% 9.19% 11.33% 11.48%
SERS 5.43% 8.87% 9.62% 11.18% 11.33%
TRS 6.14% 12.12% 13.12% 15.25% 16.10%
Change for TRS over 2010-11
5.98% 6.98% 9.11% 9.96%
Rates displayed above are the pension contribution only. Other mandatory benefit components are in addition to pensions (such as social security and Medicare), but are anticipated to be stable.
*Projected rates based on Office of the State Actuary’s April 28,2009 projections.
20
OSPI; 6/26/09
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline Washington’s EconomyWashington’s Economy
Retirement RatesRetirement Rates SHB 2812SHB 2812
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
Forecast of Seattle CPI-U, All items (1982-84=100)
Updated 9-29-09Annual Growth
2006 (Actual) 3.7%2007(Actual) 3.9%2008 (Actual) 4.2%2009 1.1%2010 1.9%2011 1.9%2012 2.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Puget Sound Economic Foprecaster, prepared by Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
I-728 Funding per SHB 2812
ACTUAL I-728 Funding
Added to Levy Base
COLA per SHB 2812
ACTUAL COLA
2007-08 450.00$ 450.00$ -$ 3.7% 3.7%2008-09 467.55$ 458.10$ 9.45$ 3.9% 3.9%2009-10 487.19$ 131.16$ 356.03$ 4.2% 0.0%2010-11 492.55$ 99.00$ 393.55$ 1.1% 0.0%2011-12 501.90$ -$ 501.90$ 1.9%2012-13 511.44$ -$ 511.44$ 1.9%2013-14 522.18$ -$ 522.18$ 2.1%
FOR LEVY BASE CALCULATION PURPOSES
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline Washington’s EconomyWashington’s Economy
Retirement RatesRetirement Rates SHB 2812SHB 2812
Levy AuthorityLevy Authority Assessed ValuationAssessed Valuation
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
Tax CPF TVF M&O Assess Valuation
Year Total M&O CPF TVF $$$ % chg $$$ $$$ Valuation % chg
2004 1.35$ 1.35$ -$ 3,190,370$ 2.5% -$ 2,415,208,748$ 6.8% 13,234,071$ 24%
2005 1.43$ 1.33$ 0.10$ 3,250,000$ 1.9% 250,000$ 2,450,868,206$ 1.5% 13,579,205$ 24%
2006 1.36$ 1.27$ 0.09$ 3,408,000$ 4.9% 250,000$ 2,689,503,698$ 9.7%14,173,233$
24%
2007 1.42$ 1.22$ 0.20$ -$ 3,406,528$ 0.0% 550,000$ -$ 2,801,752,675$ 4.2% 14,123,568$ 24%
2008 1.07$ 0.93$ 0.14$ -$ 3,563,209$ 4.6% 550,000$ -$ 3,819,064,242$ 36.3% 14,887,350$ 24%
2009 1.06$ 0.83$ 0.21$ 0.02$ 3,679,784$ 3.3% 950,000$ 100,000$ 4,430,997,552$ 16.0% 15,303,535$ 24%
2010 1.02$ 0.80$ 0.20$ 0.02$ 3,800,173$ 3.3% 950,000$ 100,000$ 4,750,189,576$ 7.2% 15,785,066$ 24%
2011 1.03$ 0.83$ 0.20$ -$ 3,950,000$ 3.9% 950,000$ -$ 4,750,189,576$ 0.0% 13,905,401$ 28%
2012 1.05$ 0.85$ 0.21$ -$ 3,900,000$ -1.3% 950,000$ -$ 4,607,683,889$ -3.0% 13,688,836$ 28%
2013 1.05$ 0.84$ 0.20$ -$ 3,925,000$ 0.6% 950,000$ -$ 4,653,760,778$ 1.0% 13,871,342$ 28%
LEVY BASE LEVY %
*Property values based on 2 years prior assessed valuation **Levy Base based on revenue from two prior years
ACTUAL Levy Rates M & O
Proposed Levy Rates
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING
Cost to TaxpayerCost to Taxpayer
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 366.00$ 60.00$ -$ 426.00$
$350 427.00$ 70.00$ -$ 497.00$
$400 488.00$ 80.00$ -$ 568.00$
$450 549.00$ 90.00$ -$ 639.00$
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 279.00$ 42.00$ -$ 321.00$
$350 325.50$ 49.00$ -$ 374.50$
$400 372.00$ 56.00$ -$ 428.00$
$450 418.50$ 63.00$ -$ 481.50$
Tax Payer Contribution (Property Value Increments)
20
07
Le
vy
20
08
Le
vy
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 249.00$ 63.00$ 6.00$ 318.00$
$350 290.50$ 73.50$ 7.00$ 371.00$
$400 332.00$ 84.00$ 8.00$ 424.00$
$450 373.50$ 94.50$ 9.00$ 477.00$
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 240.00$ 60.00$ 6.00$ 306.00$
$350 280.00$ 70.00$ 7.00$ 357.00$
$400 320.00$ 80.00$ 8.00$ 408.00$
$450 360.00$ 90.00$ 9.00$ 459.00$
Tax Payer Contribution (Property Value Increments)
20
09
Le
vy
20
10
Le
vy
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 249.46$ 60.00$ -$ 309.46$
$350 291.04$ 70.00$ -$ 361.04$
$400 332.62$ 80.00$ -$ 412.62$
$450 374.20$ 90.00$ -$ 464.19$
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 253.92$ 61.85$ -$ 315.78$
$350 296.24$ 72.16$ -$ 368.41$
$400 338.56$ 82.47$ -$ 421.04$
$450 380.89$ 92.78$ -$ 473.67$
$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total
$300 253.02$ 61.24$ -$ 314.26$
$350 295.19$ 71.45$ -$ 366.64$
$400 337.36$ 81.65$ -$ 419.02$
$450 379.53$ 91.86$ -$ 471.39$
Tax Payer Contribution (Property Value Increments)
20
13
Le
vy
20
11
Le
vy
20
12
Le
vy
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206
SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206