southeast asia: history, politics, and culture

8/11/2019 Southeast Asia: History, Politics, and Culture

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Regional SecurityEducation Program

Naval Postgraduate School

In support of Pacific Partnership 2008


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What is RSEP?Direct response to CNOs request for new initiatives toprepare operating forces for regional securitymissions and threats

Outcome of USS Cole investigation

NPS initiative with COMTHIRDFLT supportThen ADM Thomas Fargo directed NPS to fast-track RSEP

Face-to-face graduate education with regional andsubject-matter experts

RSEP = Lectures, Q & A, and debate


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RSEP Missions and Objectives

Enhance situational awareness through graduateeducation on regional threats with historical

perspectives and views on current issuesStrategic focus to prepare CVBGs, ARGs, SAGs andMarines for regional security and cultural challenges

Education Objectives include diplomacy, coalitionbuilding and achieving U.S. National Security Objectives

Preparation for Forward Engagement

and Security Cooperation


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Team MembersDr. Michael Malley

National Security Affairs Department, Naval PostgraduateSchoolTeach Southeast Asian politics, history, and internationalrelations

Dr. Sophal EarNational Security Affairs Department, Naval PostgraduateSchoolTeach Southeast Asian politics and political economy,stabilization and reconstruction


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Southeast Asia: History,Politics, and Culture

Dr. Michael Malley and Dr. Sophal EarRegional Security Education ProgramDepartment of National Security AffairsNaval Postgraduate SchoolPacific Partnership, May 2008


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OutlineGeography

People and CulturesHistory

Politics

Foreign Policy

Food/Rice Crisis

Terrorism


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Religious DiversityMainly Buddhist mainland

Burma, Thailand, Cambodia,

Laos, VietnamMainly Muslim islands

Brunei

Indonesia: small Christian andHindu minorities

Malaysia: small Hindu andlarge Christian minorities

Mainly CatholicPhilippines and East Timor


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Historical BackgroundMainland

Modern countries emerged

from old kingdomsColonialism reshaped thesecountriesThailand (Siam) was not

colonizedIslands

Modern countries are colonialcreations

Colonialism createdSingapore, Malaysia,Indonesia, and thePhilippines


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Impact of ColonialismEconomicTransformed economies, and integrated them into

the world economyColonies produced rice, rubber, sugar, tobacco,coffee, and tin for world markets

SocialLarge numbers of immigrants came from China andIndia to find work

PoliticalExposure to foreign ideas + resistance to colonialism

growth of nationalism


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From Empire to Revolution: TheImpact of World War II

Japan invaded and occupied most of Southeast Asia

Europeans and US defeated in less than one yearLesson to Southeast Asian nationalists: Asians candefeat whites/Europeans

Opportunity for Southeast Asians: many could fillpositions left by European defeatAfter the War: Europeans too weak to overcomenationalist movements

Independence achieved in 1940s and 1950sVietnam fought until 1970s for unification


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Post-independence StrugglesMost countries faced internal conflict and

insurgencyMalaysia: The Emergency vs. communism

Burma: ethnic rebellions

Indonesia: Islamic militants, regional rebels,powerful communist movement

Philippines: rural revolt, strong communistmovement

Vietnam: divided country


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Division in Southeast Asiaduring the 1960s and 1970s

Anticommunist governments gained control of many

countriesSingapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines

Formed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Pursued economic growth through tradeResult: Peace and rapid economic growth, but little democracy

Mainland: communist and socialist ideals led them to

fight US and turn away from global economyDecades of war left these countries much poorer


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From Growth to Crisis: 1980s-1990s

Following economic reform in 1980s, many countries

enjoyed rapid growth and rising living standardsPhilippine exception: domestic political turmoil led toeconomic crisisVietnam began to replace communism with capitalism

Late 1990s, major economic crisis hit most countriesin Southeast Asia

Falling demand for Southeast Asian goods

Speculative bubbleToday, Southeast Asian economies have recovered, butstruggle with competition from China


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Contemporary PoliticsFew democracies

Only Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand choosetheir governments through (mostly) free and fairelections

Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia are pseudo-democracies

Brunei: monarchy

Burma: military juntaVietnam, Laos: communist regimes


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US Partners in Southeast Asia

Thailand and the PhilippinesUS allies since early 1950smajor non-NATO allies since 2003Strong partners in GWOT

Singapore:

strategic partner and strong supporter of GWOT, major tradeand investment partner

Malaysia and IndonesiaPublic often opposes US policies, especially wars in Iraq andAfghanistanGovts support key policies, e.g., GWOT and regional security


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Chinas Charm Offensive Early 1990s: China took an aggressive approachtoward Southeast Asia

Seized territory in South China Sea

Southeast Asian countries strengthened defense ties with US,e.g., Changi naval base in Singapore

Since late 1990s, China has played nicelyNo more territorial expansion in South China Sea

Economic cooperation with SE Asia

Support for ASEAN and multilateral diplomacyMost SE Asian countries aim to avoid moving too close toeither China or the US


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US Interests in Southeast Asia

Main goal: promote regional peace and stability

Contemporary ChallengesRice Crisis: threats to prosperity and stability

Terrorism: threat to security and stability


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In case you havent heardAside from Cyclone

Nargis hittingMyanmar (Burma),and the 7.9earthquake in China

1) There is acatastrophic foodcrisis, the likes ofwhich has not been

seen since 1973/42) In addition, there is

routine hunger.


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Whats happening to prices?

Currently US$1000


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Drivers of Growth in Prices


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BLUF: Its Supply and Demand

Increase in meat consumption (Per capita

consumption has more than doubled in last 50years and it takes 8, 5, and 3 lbs grain toproduce 1 lb of beef, pork, and chicken.)

Formerly self-sufficient countries now importingfood.Weather (Australia, Bangladesh, and Myanmar)

Speculation (local hoarding as well asspeculation in the commodities super cycle.)


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Philippines self-sufficiency in food

production, including rice, drops steadily

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

$ B

Balance of food trade in the Philippines, 1980-2006

Source: WTO online database

1980 (1.41)

1995 (-0.14)

2006 (-0.49)


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Rice plantation areas have shrunk in the

Philippines

236,615

682,873

359,246

-86,606-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1960-1971 1971-1980 1980-1991 1991-2002

Area planted/harvested across decades (in hectares)

Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture, NSO


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and could possibly grow more

in the near future

16

18

19

21

14

15

16

1718

19

20

21

22

'07 '08 '09 '10

22

24

25

27

20

21

22

2324

25

26

27

28

'07 '08 '09 '10

Estimated % share of imported rice on domestic consumption, 2007-2010

Projection 1 Projection 2

Projection by Prof. Ted Mendoza of UPLB

Consumption: 118.67 kg/person Consumption: 128 kg/person


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Worldwide GovernmentalResponses

Emergency imports

Banning/freezing exports ofrice/foodFood subsidies & tariffsPresident Bush Orders $200Million in Food AidMalaysia proposed barteringpalm oil for rice

Japan sits on 2.25 mil.Japan will re-export 220,000tons to Philippines Long-term pressure faced by govts


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Terrorism and Political Violence in Southeast Asia


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In case you havent heard

Good News:

Major terrorist network in Southeast Asia has beenseriously disruptedOn Sunday, the State Dept lifted 7-year old travelwarning for Indonesia

Bad NewsTerrorism and insurgency remain significant

Southern Philippines remains a major trouble spotSeveral groups involved, many near Cotabato


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Dangers in the Philippines

Several major insurgent

groupsMuslim groups in theSouth

Largest are separatistmovements

Smaller terrorist groups

Cotabato


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Insurgency and Terrorism

MNLF & MILF40-year old insurgency, 1000s ofmembers each

Seek autonomy, not independenc

Peace talks breaking down

Some MILF commanders shelterterrorists

ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group)Linked to al-Qaeda

Hundreds of members

Main focus of US CT operations in RP


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Southern Mindanao


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Recent DevelopmentsEmergence of new, small, criminal groups

Increase in bombings in Mindanao

Breakdown of peace talks with MILFMalaysian peacekeepers begin to depart this monthNew links forged between elements of ASG and MNLF


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New Peoples Army

Communist; 7,000+ members

Active in 69 out of 81 provinces ctive near Cotabato and in Samar

40 years, 40,000 dead

On US list of terrorist groupsIncreasing number of attacks in 2008, aim to raisemoney

Mainly attack govt forces and officials, and foreigncompanies


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Implications for You

Your Own Security

Threats are real, but not imminentBut situation is uncertain due to recent changes

Patient careIn recent years, widespread fighting has displacedhundreds of thousands of peopleTravel may be dangerous because bus companies

are common target of extortionist bombsThey live with the threat of violence


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Questions?

southeast asia: history, politics, and culture

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