southern african water conflicts - anthony turton
TRANSCRIPT
67
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
wat
er s
carc
ity
hap
pen
to
coin
cide
wit
h e
conom
ic,
ideo
logi
cal
or o
ther
dif
fer-
ence
s bet
wee
n c
ountr
ies,
we
can a
nti
cipat
e th
at t
ensi
ons
can r
apid
ly r
each
cris
is l
evel
s. I
ndee
d,
man
y sm
all-
and l
arge
-sca
le c
onfl
icts
hav
e bee
n b
ased
on,
or a
ccen
tuat
ed b
y, s
ituat
ions
rela
ted t
o ac
cess
to
wat
er i
n t
he
arid
reg
ions
of t
he
wor
ld (
Fal
ken
mar
k 1
99
4).
How
ever
, th
ere
is a
lso
a ra
pid
ly g
row
ing
publi
c aw
aren
ess
that
wat
er i
nte
rdep
enden
ce i
s al
read
y, o
r w
ill
soon
bec
ome,
a fa
ct o
f li
fe in m
any
countr
ies.
Con
sequen
tly,
ther
e is
a g
row
ing
dri
ve tow
ards
coop
erat
ive
dev
elop
men
t of
wat
er r
esou
rces
in
cer
tain
are
as (
Del
li P
risc
oli
1998).
It
has
bee
n e
stim
ated
that
abou
t 40%
of
the
wor
ld’s
pop
ula
tion
liv
e in
appro
xim
atel
y 200 s
har
ed r
iver
bas
ins;
fiv
e or
mor
e ri
par
ian c
ountr
ies
shar
e
13
of
the
wor
ld’s
maj
or r
iver
bas
ins.
Wh
ilst
th
ese
situ
atio
ns
pro
vid
e id
eal
ince
nti
ves
for
rip
aria
n c
oun
trie
s to
joi
ntl
y d
evel
op c
olla
bor
ativ
e ac
tion
s to
safe
guar
d w
ater
suppli
es,
such
sit
uat
ions
can a
lso
bec
ome
the
site
s fo
r es
ca-
lati
ng
tensi
ons
bet
wee
n s
uch
cou
ntr
ies
(Ros
egra
nt
1995; 1997; W
olf
1996).
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a is
lar
gely
an a
rid t
o se
mi-
arid
reg
ion,
wher
e th
e bas
ins
of m
ost
of t
he
larg
er p
eren
nia
l ri
vers
are
sh
ared
by
bet
wee
n t
hre
e to
eig
ht
countr
ies
(SA
RD
C 1
994).
Suppli
es o
f fr
esh w
ater
are
fin
ite
and t
he
exis
ting
dem
ands
for
wat
er i
n s
ome
par
ts o
f th
e re
gion
are
fas
t ap
pro
achin
g th
e li
mit
s
of c
onve
nti
onal
tec
hn
olog
ies
(SA
DC
-EL
MS
19
96
). D
eman
ds
for
add
itio
nal
suppli
es o
f fr
esh w
ater
wil
l nee
d t
o be
met
thro
ugh
the
use
of
unco
nve
nti
onal
tech
nolo
gie
s, t
he e
xp
loit
ati
on
of
new
or
novel
sou
rces
of
fresh
wate
r, o
r
thro
ugh
th
e lo
ng
dis
tan
ce t
ran
sfer
of
ever
-lar
ger
qu
anti
ties
of
wat
er f
rom
regi
ons
that
hav
e am
ple
su
pp
lies
(C
onle
y 1
99
5,
19
96
). I
n t
he
futu
re,
con
-
cert
ed a
tten
tion
wil
l al
so h
ave
to b
e pai
d t
o re
duci
ng
the
dem
and f
or w
ater
,
and t
o in
crea
sing
the
effi
cien
cy w
ith w
hic
h w
ater
is
use
d (
Hudso
n 1
996).
Aga
inst
th
is c
urr
ent
bac
kgr
oun
d o
f ri
sin
g d
eman
ds
for
wat
er,
and
th
e
finit
e su
ppli
es that
are
ava
ilab
le, it
is
impor
tant to
rem
ember
that
the
nat
ional
bou
ndar
ies
of a
ll s
outh
ern A
fric
an c
ountr
ies
seld
om f
ollo
w e
ven a
por
tion
of
the
‘nat
ura
l’ b
oundar
y of
riv
er c
atch
men
ts (
Pal
lett
1997;
Fis
ch 1
999).
This
last
ele
men
t re
pre
sents
par
t of
the
lega
cy o
f ea
rlie
r co
lonia
l ad
min
istr
atio
ns,
wher
e th
e nat
ional
bou
ndar
ies
of m
ost
countr
ies
app
ear
to h
ave
bee
n d
elim
-
ited
or
dra
wn
up
in
an
ap
pare
ntl
y a
rbit
rary
fash
ion
(von
Molt
ke 1
97
7;
Pre
scot
t 1979;
Han
gula
1993).
Con
sequen
tly,
the
exte
nt
to w
hic
h t
he
larg
er
rive
r sy
stem
s ar
e sh
ared
by
mor
e th
an o
ne
cou
ntr
y h
as o
ften
res
ult
ed i
n
inte
nse
riv
alry
bet
wee
n c
ountr
ies,
as
each
str
ives
to
der
ive
max
imum
ben
efit
s
from
th
e av
aila
ble
wat
er r
esou
rces
. Typ
ical
ly,
‘dow
nst
ream
’ co
un
trie
s ar
e
mor
e vu
lner
able
th
an t
hei
r ‘u
pst
ream
’ n
eigh
bou
rs i
n s
uch
sit
uat
ion
s, a
nd
ther
efor
e d
eriv
e th
e le
ast
ben
efit
. T
his
sit
uat
ion
has
bee
n a
ccen
tuat
ed i
n
66
Pete
r A
shto
n
are
dyn
amic
sys
tem
s th
at f
req
uen
tly
chan
ge t
hei
r co
urs
es i
n r
esp
onse
to
floo
d e
vents
, w
e ca
n a
nti
cipat
e fu
ture
dis
pute
s ov
er t
he
pre
cise
loc
atio
ns
of
inte
rnat
ional
bou
ndar
ies
when
riv
ers
chan
ge t
hei
r sh
ape
and c
onfi
gura
tion
.
We c
an
als
o a
nti
cip
ate
th
at
alm
ost
all
fu
ture
dis
pu
tes
or
con
flic
ts
invo
lvin
g w
ater
, or
con
cern
ed w
ith s
ome
aspec
t of
wat
er,
wil
l te
nd t
o be
loca
l
in s
cale
. T
hes
e co
nfl
icts
wil
l b
e am
enab
le t
o in
stit
uti
onal
an
d g
over
nm
ent
inte
rven
tion
, an
d t
he r
igh
ts a
nd
resp
on
sib
ilit
ies
of
ind
ivid
uals
are
well
pro
tect
ed i
n n
atio
nal
leg
isla
tion
. A
t th
e in
tern
atio
nal
sca
le o
f a
wat
er-b
ased
con
flic
t or
dis
pu
te b
etw
een
tw
o o
r m
ore
cou
ntr
ies,
som
e p
rin
cip
les
of
inte
rnat
ional
law
pro
vide
a so
lid f
oundat
ion f
or n
egot
iati
on a
nd a
rbit
rati
on.
How
ever,
it
is c
learl
y i
n t
he i
nte
rest
s of
ind
ivid
uals
an
d s
ocie
ties
that
app
rop
riat
e n
atio
nal
an
d i
nte
rnat
ion
al i
nst
itu
tion
s sh
ould
joi
ntl
y d
evel
op
man
agem
ent pla
ns
for
shar
ed r
iver
bas
ins,
and a
lso
der
ive
wor
kab
le p
roto
cols
that
can
be
use
d t
o pre
vent
wat
er-b
ased
con
flic
ts i
n t
he
regi
on.
Intr
oducti
on
In r
ecen
t ye
ars
ther
e has
bee
n a
rap
id w
orld
wid
e in
crea
se i
n p
ubli
c aw
are-
nes
s of
the
fact
that
the
wor
ld’s
fre
sh w
ater
suppli
es a
re a
sca
rce
and l
imit
ed
reso
urc
e w
hic
h i
s ex
trao
rdin
aril
y vu
lner
able
to
hum
an a
ctiv
itie
s (F
alken
mar
k
19
89
; B
isw
as
19
93
; G
lieck
19
93
; H
om
er-
Dix
on
& P
erc
ival
19
96
; D
ell
i
Pri
scol
i 1998).
This
aw
aren
ess
is c
ouple
d w
ith t
he
grow
ing
real
isat
ion t
hat
it
is b
ecom
ing i
ncre
asi
ngly
dif
ficu
lt,
an
d e
xp
en
sive,
to p
rovid
e s
uff
icie
nt
suppli
es o
f w
hol
esom
e w
ater
to
mee
t th
e gr
owin
g nee
ds
of c
omm
unit
ies
and
countr
ies.
Thes
e te
nsi
ons
are
acce
ntu
ated
by
wid
espre
ad p
opula
tion
gro
wth
,
as w
ell
as i
ncr
ease
d r
ates
of
urb
anis
atio
n a
nd
in
du
stri
alis
atio
n (
van
Wyk
1998).
As
a re
sult
, th
ere
has
bee
n a
dra
mat
ic i
ncr
ease
in t
he
leve
l of
com
pet
i-
tion
for
wat
er b
etw
een d
iffe
rent
wat
er u
se s
ecto
rs. W
hil
st i
t ap
pea
rs c
lear
that
the
bas
ic r
easo
ns
for
incr
easi
ng
wat
er s
hor
tage
s ar
e w
ell
under
stoo
d b
y al
l
par
tici
pan
ts,
much
of
the
deb
ate
is s
till
col
oure
d b
y st
rong
nat
ional
con
cern
s
over
sov
erei
gnty
and t
erri
tori
al i
nte
grit
y is
sues
(B
usi
nes
s R
epor
t1
99
8).
As
a
resu
lt,
the p
ote
nti
al
for
‘wate
r-b
ase
d c
on
flic
ts’
to o
ccu
r w
ill
con
tin
ue t
o
rem
ain h
igh, an
d t
ensi
ons
wil
l be
incr
ease
– p
ossi
bly
to
crit
ical
lev
els
– w
hen
such
cou
ntr
ies
exper
ience
ext
rem
e cl
imat
ic e
vents
, su
ch a
s dro
ugh
ts (H
udso
n
19
96
; G
liec
k 1
99
8).
It i
s under
stan
dab
le t
hat
the
pot
enti
al f
or c
onfl
ict
over
wat
er i
s li
kel
y to
be
mos
t ac
ute
in t
hos
e re
gion
s w
her
e w
ater
is
scar
cest
. W
her
e co
ndit
ions
of
69
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
the
resu
ltin
g in
crea
se i
n p
ub
lic
con
scio
usn
ess
of t
he
imp
orta
nce
of
wat
er
issu
es
is t
o b
e w
elc
om
ed
. N
evert
hele
ss,
it i
s als
o t
rue t
hat
man
y o
f th
e
emot
ivel
y w
ord
ed a
pp
eals
or
pro
nou
nce
men
ts o
ften
cau
se p
ub
lic
fear
or
a
per
vasi
ve s
ense
of
pes
sim
ism
; th
e under
tones
of
the
deb
ate
are
dis
turb
ing.
In
man
y ca
ses,
cri
tics
cre
ate
the
per
cepti
on t
hat
gov
ernm
ent
dep
artm
ents
and
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
ager
s h
ave
eith
er ‘
ign
ored
th
e si
gns’
(cl
earl
y vi
sib
le t
o
thes
e know
ledge
able
and f
ar-s
ighte
d i
ndiv
idual
s) o
r, w
orse
, co
nce
aled
them
.
Such
cri
tics
som
etim
es a
lso
sugg
est
that
thes
e of
fici
als
hav
e ‘o
nly
just
wok
en
up’
and r
eali
sed t
hat
ther
e m
ay b
e a
wat
er-r
elat
ed p
roble
m i
n t
hei
r ar
ea o
f
juri
sdic
tion
. Such
indic
tmen
ts o
f pas
t ac
tion
s or
mot
ivat
ions,
bas
ed o
n c
urr
ent
know
ledge
, do
not
enco
ura
ge c
onst
ruct
ive
dia
logu
e, n
or d
o th
ey p
rom
ote
or
suppor
t a
conce
rted
sea
rch f
or e
ffec
tive
sol
uti
ons
(Del
li P
risc
oli
1998).
As
alre
ady
men
tion
ed,
wat
er-r
elat
ed c
onfl
icts
of
vary
ing
deg
rees
of
inte
nsi
ty a
nd s
pat
ial sc
ale
hav
e ex
iste
d for
mil
lennia
; man
y of
the
contr
ibuti
ng
reas
ons
or c
ause
s fo
r th
ese
con
flic
ts c
onti
nu
e to
day
an
d,
un
dou
bte
dly
, w
ill
conti
nue
to e
xist
in t
he
futu
re.
How
we
dea
l w
ith t
hes
e si
tuat
ions
– a
nd w
e
wil
l hav
e to
dea
l w
ith t
hem
– w
ill
dep
end l
arge
ly o
n t
he
way
s in
whic
h w
e
inte
ract
wit
h o
ur
nei
ghbou
rs, an
d t
he
way
s in
whic
h w
e, j
ointl
y, h
arnes
s in
for-
mat
ion a
nd k
now
ledge
to
der
ive
appro
pri
ate,
mutu
ally
-ben
efic
ial
solu
tion
s.
The
resp
onsi
bil
itie
s w
e fa
ce a
re e
nor
mou
s; a
per
vadin
g se
nse
of
pes
sim
ism
wil
l not
hel
p u
s to
ach
ieve
succ
ess.
We
sim
ply
can
not
aff
ord t
o si
t bac
k, w
ait,
and
do
not
hin
g, i
n t
he
fata
list
ic a
nti
cip
atio
n t
hat
som
e im
pro
bab
le ‘
bet
ter
opti
on’
wil
l sh
ow i
tsel
f. T
he
scal
e an
d u
rgen
cy o
f m
any
of t
he
wat
er-r
elat
ed
pro
ble
ms
we
face
tod
ay d
eman
d t
hat
we
imp
lem
ent
pro
acti
ve a
pp
roac
hes
now
; an
y fu
rther
del
ay w
ill
exac
erbat
e th
ese
pro
ble
ms.
Our
com
bin
ed a
war
enes
s of
the
soci
al, ec
onom
ic, pol
itic
al a
nd e
colo
gica
l
cause
s an
d i
mpli
cati
ons
of t
hes
e co
nfl
icts
has
im
pro
ved g
radual
ly w
ith t
ime,
as m
ore
and m
ore
info
rmat
ion h
as b
ecom
e av
aila
ble
. G
lobal
ly,
we
are
now
in
an i
dea
l pos
itio
n t
o sh
are
our
know
ledge
and u
nder
stan
din
g of
thes
e pro
b-
lem
s, a
nd
searc
h f
or
eff
ecti
ve,
lon
g-l
ast
ing s
olu
tion
s. I
t is
im
port
an
t to
rem
ember
that
the
Engl
ish w
ord ‘
cris
is’, d
eriv
ed f
rom
the
Gre
ek r
oot
kris
is,
refe
rs m
ore
to d
ecis
ion –
a t
ime
of o
ppor
tunit
y an
d d
ecis
ive
acti
on –
rat
her
than
a d
isas
ter.
Con
seq
uen
tly,
th
e w
ord
cri
sis
shou
ld r
ath
er b
e se
en i
n t
he
form
of
a ‘w
ake
up’ c
all
for
dec
isio
n a
nd a
ctio
n (
Del
li P
risc
oli
1998).
It
is t
his
form
of
the c
on
cep
t th
at
shou
ld b
e t
he b
asi
s fo
r ou
r u
nd
ers
tan
din
g a
nd
man
agem
ent
of ‘w
ater
cri
ses’
or
‘wat
er c
onfl
icts
’.
In i
ts s
imp
lest
an
d b
road
est
sen
se,
the
term
‘w
ater
con
flic
t’ h
as b
een
use
d t
o d
escr
ibe
any
dis
agre
emen
t or
dis
pu
te o
ver
or a
bou
t w
ater
, w
her
e
48
Pete
r A
shto
n
those
sit
uati
on
s w
here
th
e d
ow
nst
ream
cou
ntr
ies
may b
e e
con
om
icall
y
‘poo
rer’
or
pol
itic
ally
and m
ilit
aril
y ‘w
eaker
’ th
an t
hei
r upst
ream
nei
ghbou
rs
(van
Wyk
19
98
).
Rec
ent
pol
itic
al d
evel
opm
ents
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a hav
e bee
n a
ccom
pa-
nie
d b
y a
wid
er,
regi
onal
acc
epta
nce
of
the
nee
d f
or a
ll c
oun
trie
s to
wor
k
toge
ther
, to
dev
elop
an
d i
mp
lem
ent
join
t st
rate
gies
an
d p
roto
cols
for
th
e
pro
tect
ion a
nd m
anag
emen
t of
reg
ional
wat
er r
esou
rces
(SA
DC
-EL
MS 1
996;
Rep
ub
lic
of S
outh
Afr
ica
19
98
). H
owev
er,
wh
ilst
th
ese
wel
com
e d
evel
op-
men
ts m
ust
be
suppor
ted a
nd p
rom
oted
thro
ugh
out
the
regi
on,
ther
e re
mai
n
seve
ral
smal
l- a
nd l
arge
-sca
le i
ssues
that
hav
e al
read
y le
d t
o so
me
form
of
confl
ict,
or
hol
d t
he
pot
enti
al t
o do
so (
Han
gula
1993).
In t
hes
e si
tuat
ions,
it
wou
ld a
pp
ear
that
desp
ite t
he b
est
in
ten
tion
s of
poli
ticia
ns
an
d w
ate
r
reso
urc
e m
anag
ers,
som
e fo
rm o
f ‘w
ater
-bas
ed c
onfl
ict’ i
s ei
ther
inev
itab
le o
r
‘un
stop
pab
le’. C
onse
qu
entl
y, i
t is
cru
cial
ly i
mp
orta
nt
that
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
ager
s ex
amin
e th
ese
situ
atio
ns
clos
ely
to d
eter
min
e w
het
her
or
not
thes
e
con
flic
ts a
re i
nd
eed
in
evit
ab
le,
or
if t
hey a
re a
men
ab
le t
o s
om
e f
orm
of
pre
venti
ve i
nte
rven
tion
.
The c
oncept
of
‘wate
r c
onfl
icts
’
It i
s p
erh
aps
not
su
rpri
sin
g th
at t
he
En
glis
h w
ord
s ‘r
iver
’ an
d ‘
riva
l’ a
re
der
ived
fro
m t
he
sam
e L
atin
roo
t, r
iva
lis
— h
e w
ho
use
s th
e sa
me
stre
am
(Bis
was
1993; O
hls
son 1
995a)
. T
his
is
also
ref
lect
ed i
n t
he
consc
ious
real
isa-
tion
th
at v
ario
us
deg
rees
of
dis
agre
emen
t or
con
flic
t b
etw
een
in
div
idu
als,
com
munit
ies
and c
ountr
ies
hav
e ar
isen
fro
m, or
are
rel
ated
to,
com
pet
itio
n f
or
acce
ss t
o w
ater
(O
hls
son 1
995b).
Such
anim
osit
ies
are
anci
ent
in o
rigi
n a
nd
conti
nue
to t
he
pre
sent
day
. H
isto
rica
l ex
ample
s fr
om B
ibli
cal
tim
es t
ell
of
how
irr
igat
ion-b
ased
civ
ilis
atio
ns
wer
e vu
lner
able
to
inva
din
g ar
mie
s; l
ater
,
Cru
sader
for
ces
wer
e def
eate
d b
y Sal
adin
, w
ho
den
ied t
hem
acc
ess
to w
ater
.
In m
ore
rece
nt co
nfl
icts
, des
alin
isat
ion p
lants
and irr
igat
ion w
ater
dis
trib
uti
on
syst
ems
wer
e sy
stem
atic
ally
tar
gete
d i
n t
he
Gulf
War
(D
elli
Pri
scol
i 1998).
Much
of
the
rece
nt
deb
ate
arou
nd e
xist
ing
wat
er c
onfl
icts
, an
d p
erce
p-
tion
s of
pos
sib
le f
utu
re c
onfl
icts
, h
as b
een
ph
rase
d i
n h
igh
ly d
ram
atis
ed
term
s of
‘w
ater
war
s’ o
r ‘w
ater
cri
ses’
, or
oth
er s
imil
ar d
oom
sday
pro
phes
ies
(Del
li P
risc
oli
1998).
Unfo
rtunat
ely,
a c
onsi
der
able
pro
por
tion
of
the
deb
ate
has
cen
tred
on e
xist
ing
or i
mpen
din
g pro
ble
ms,
whil
st v
ery
litt
le a
tten
tion
is
pai
d t
o fi
ndin
g so
luti
ons
to t
hes
e pro
ble
ms.
On a
mor
e pos
itiv
e not
e, h
owev
er,
71
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
shou
ld b
e in
no
dou
bt
that
man
y of
th
ese
‘les
ser’
con
flic
ts w
ill
con
tin
ue
to
occu
r in
the
futu
re.
Impor
tantl
y, t
he
term
‘w
ater
con
flic
t’ i
s not
mea
nt
to c
over
a s
ituat
ion o
f
confl
ict
that
, by
chan
ce,
hap
pen
s to
occ
ur
at o
r nea
r a
wat
er s
ourc
e. A
s D
elli
Pri
scol
i (1
99
8)
has
not
ed,
seve
ral
peo
ple
hap
pen
ed t
o ‘h
ave
bee
n k
ille
d
arou
nd t
he
wat
er h
ole’
. In
rea
lity
, how
ever
, th
ere
seem
s to
be
a ge
ner
al r
eluc-
tance
to
do
this
, si
nce
such
inci
den
ts o
f in
terp
erso
nal
vio
lence
can
rap
idly
esca
late
into
a n
atio
nal
or
inte
rnat
ional
iss
ue.
Som
ehow
, a
shar
ed r
eali
sati
on
of
the f
un
dam
en
tal
valu
e a
nd
im
port
an
ce o
f w
ate
r in
su
ch
sit
uati
on
s of
confl
ict,
for
ces
us
to e
leva
te o
urs
elve
s fr
om f
amil
iar
inte
rper
sonal
adve
rsar
ial
pos
itio
ns,
into
pos
itio
ns
wher
e ou
r st
ance
is
bas
ed m
ore
on o
ur
awar
enes
s of
,
or i
s re
late
d t
o, t
he
life
-giv
ing
pro
per
ties
and v
alues
of
wat
er.
In e
ffec
t, t
his
real
isat
ion
see
ms
to b
e b
ased
on
an
aw
aren
ess
that
eve
ryon
e su
ffer
s w
hen
wat
er i
s use
d t
o m
ake
war
.
The
enor
mou
s vo
lum
e of
info
rmat
ion a
vail
able
to
us
at t
he
pre
sent
tim
e,
pro
vides
us
wit
h a
rem
arkab
le d
egre
e of
under
stan
din
g of
the
pri
mar
y ca
use
s
of w
ater
con
flic
ts.
Sim
ilar
ly,
we
are
now
far
mor
e aw
are
of t
he
opti
ons
and
acti
ons
that
are
ava
ilab
le t
o pre
vent
confl
icts
fro
m h
appen
ing,
as
wel
l as
how
to r
esol
ve t
hem
pea
ceab
ly o
nce
they
hav
e bee
n i
nit
iate
d. To
achie
ve t
his
goa
l
of p
reve
nti
ng
or r
esol
ving
wat
er c
onfl
icts
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a, i
t is
im
por
tant
that
we
firs
t ex
amin
e ou
r under
stan
din
g of
the
bas
ic c
ause
s of
wat
er c
onfl
ict.
Som
e c
ause
s of
wate
r c
onfl
icts
Wat
er h
as l
ong
bee
n r
ecog
nis
ed a
s cr
itic
al f
or h
um
an h
ealt
h a
nd w
ell-
bei
ng;
socia
l an
d e
con
om
ic d
evelo
pm
en
t can
not
tak
e p
lace w
ith
ou
t ad
eq
uate
suppli
es o
f w
hol
esom
e fr
esh w
ater
(F
alken
mar
k 1
989; D
elli
Pri
scol
i 1996).
In
the
arid
an
d s
emi-
arid
reg
ion
s of
sou
ther
n A
fric
a, f
resh
wat
er s
up
pli
es a
re
wid
ely
seen
as
the
one
reso
urc
e th
at h
as the
grea
test
pot
enti
al to
reta
rd o
r hal
t
nat
ional
dev
elop
men
t pro
gram
mes
(F
alken
mar
k 1
989;
SA
RD
C 1
994;
Con
ley
1995; M
ute
mbw
a 1996; P
alle
tt 1
997; H
eyns
et a
l 1998
).
Wat
er i
s a
clas
sica
l ca
se o
f a
‘fu
giti
ve’
reso
urc
e th
at m
oves
nat
ura
lly
from
one
area
to
anot
her
, an
d i
s tr
ansf
orm
ed r
apid
ly f
rom
one
stat
e to
anot
her
.
In a
dd
itio
n,
wh
ilst
wat
er i
s w
idel
y se
en a
s a
‘ren
ewab
le r
esou
rce’
, re
alit
y
dic
tate
s th
at t
her
e is
on
ly a
fin
ite
qu
anti
ty o
f w
ater
ava
ilab
le i
n t
he
sub
-
conti
nen
t (C
onle
y 1995; 1996; H
eyns
et a
l 1998).
Wate
r is
als
o e
xtr
aord
inari
ly v
uln
era
ble
to h
um
an
acti
vit
ies.
Both
70
Pete
r A
shto
n
soci
al,
econ
omic
, le
gal,
pol
itic
al o
r m
ilit
ary
inte
rven
tion
has
bee
n n
eeded
, or
wil
l be
requir
ed, to
res
olve
the
pro
ble
m. C
lear
ly, th
is b
road
def
init
ion s
pan
s a
wid
e c
on
tin
uu
m o
f p
oss
ible
cir
cu
mst
an
ces
an
d s
itu
ati
on
s. T
he s
imp
lest
exam
ple
of
thes
e m
ight
invo
lve
the
rela
tive
ly l
ow-i
nte
nsi
ty d
ispute
ove
r st
ock
wat
erin
g ri
ghts
bet
wee
n t
wo
adja
cen
t la
nd
own
ers.
A s
tru
ctu
red
pro
cess
of
pro
ble
m-s
olvi
ng
could
eas
ily
reso
lve
such
a s
ituat
ion.
At
the
other
ext
rem
e,
a ty
pic
al e
xam
ple
cou
ld c
onsi
st o
f a
rela
tive
ly h
igh
-in
ten
sity
in
tera
ctio
n
bet
wee
n t
wo
cou
ntr
ies,
bot
h o
f w
hom
dis
pu
te t
he
‘rig
hts
’ of
th
e ot
her
to
a
par
ticu
lar
pro
por
tion
of
the
flow
in a
shar
ed r
iver
bas
in. H
ere,
fai
lure
to
reac
h
mutu
al a
gree
men
t co
uld
res
ult
in m
ilit
ary
inte
rven
tion
, an
d m
ay e
ven r
equir
e
the
invo
lvem
ent
of a
n i
nd
epen
den
t ar
bit
rato
r. I
n b
oth
typ
es o
f ex
amp
les,
geog
raphic
al v
aria
tion
s on
the
them
e co
uld
als
o fu
rther
com
pli
cate
mat
ters
.
We
hav
e se
en s
ome
of t
he
elem
ents
of
the
bro
ad r
ange
of
pos
sible
typ
es
of c
onfl
icts
that
can
be
asso
ciat
ed w
ith,
or d
rive
n b
y, w
ater
. It
is
impor
tant
to
under
stan
d t
hat
wat
er i
s in
fac
t ‘inci
den
tal’ i
n m
any
of t
hes
e co
nfl
icts
and i
s
not
the
pri
mar
y ca
use
, ob
ject
ive
or ‘
dri
ver’
of
the
confl
ict.
Per
hap
s th
is c
an
bes
t be
expla
ined
by
a se
ries
of
thre
e si
mple
exa
mple
s w
her
e th
e ‘lev
el’
of
confl
ict
over
wat
er e
scal
ates
fro
m a
sit
uat
ion w
her
e w
ater
is
inci
den
tal
to t
he
confl
ict,
up to
a poi
nt w
her
e w
ater
is
eith
er the
pri
mar
y ‘w
eapon
of w
ar’, o
r th
e
pri
mar
y ta
rget
of
the
confl
ict.
The
firs
t ex
ample
wou
ld i
ncl
ude
a si
tuat
ion w
her
e a
wat
er c
ours
e fo
rms
the
nat
ional
bou
ndar
y bet
wee
n t
wo
countr
ies.
If
a co
nfl
ict
occu
rs o
ver
terr
ito-
rial
sov
erei
gnty
, an
d t
his
hap
pen
s to
res
ult
in m
ilit
ary
acti
on i
n a
nd a
round
the
‘bor
der
’ w
ater
way
, th
is s
ituat
ion c
an b
e co
nsi
der
ed t
o be
a w
ater
-rel
ated
confl
ict,
but not
a ‘w
ater
war
’. I
n the
seco
nd e
xam
ple
, w
ater
supply
infr
astr
uc-
ture
an
d h
ydra
uli
c in
stal
lati
ons
hav
e of
ten
bee
n c
onsi
der
ed a
s le
giti
mat
e
targ
ets
for
aggr
essi
ve a
ctio
n d
uri
ng
con
flic
t b
etw
een
tw
o co
un
trie
s. H
ere,
agai
n,
wat
er i
s not
the
pri
mar
y re
ason
for
the
confl
ict,
thou
gh t
he
dam
age
to
wate
r in
frast
ructu
re m
ay b
e u
sed
as
a m
ean
s to
in
flic
t h
ard
ship
on
an
oppon
ent.
For
our
final
exa
mple
, w
e ca
n d
efin
e a
‘wat
er w
ar’
as o
ne
that
is
fough
t w
ith t
he
sole
or
pri
mar
y purp
ose
of g
ainin
g ac
cess
to
wat
er,
or w
her
e
wat
er f
orm
s th
e ce
ntr
al w
eap
on o
f of
fen
ce i
n t
he
arse
nal
of
an a
ggre
ssor
.
Ther
e is
am
ple
suppor
ting
evid
ence
(e.
g. K
irm
ani
1990;
Khro
da
1996;
Wol
f
1996;
Pal
lett
1997;
Turt
on 1
999;
2000)
that
, des
pit
e th
e dir
e pre
dic
tion
s of
man
y au
thor
s (e
.g. H
omer
-Dix
on &
Per
civa
l 1996; H
udso
n 1
996),
‘tru
e’ w
ater
war
s ap
pea
r to
hav
e oc
curr
ed v
ery
rare
ly, if
at al
l. T
her
efor
e, for
our
purp
oses
,
the
bro
ader
ter
m ‘
wat
er c
onfl
ict’
is
use
d t
o co
ver
the
wid
e ra
nge
of
wat
er-
rela
ted
con
flic
ts t
hat
hav
e al
read
y b
een
rec
ord
ed;
un
fort
un
atel
y, w
e al
so
73
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
(Fal
ken
mar
k 1
994; H
omer
-Dix
on &
Per
civa
l 1996).
At
a st
rate
gic
leve
l, f
ive
key
geo
grap
hic
al a
nd g
eo-p
olit
ical
char
acte
ris-
tics
in
flu
ence
th
e ea
se w
ith
wh
ich
wat
er c
an b
ecom
e a
sou
rce
of s
trat
egic
riva
lry
or c
onfr
onta
tion
bet
wee
n n
eigh
bou
ring
stat
es.
The
firs
t fo
ur
of t
hes
e
hav
e pre
viou
sly
bee
n s
tate
d b
y G
liec
k (
1998);
the
fift
h i
s ad
ded
her
e as
an
impor
tant
det
erm
inan
t in
Afr
ica:
•T
he
deg
ree
of w
ater
sca
rcit
y th
at a
lrea
dy
exis
ts i
n t
he
regi
on;
•T
he
exte
nt
to w
hic
h a
wat
er s
upply
is
shar
ed b
y on
e or
mor
e st
ates
/
regi
ons;
•T
he
rela
tive
pow
er r
elat
ion
ship
s th
at e
xist
bet
wee
n w
ater
-sh
arin
g
stat
es;
•T
he
avai
labil
ity
and a
cces
sibil
ity
of a
lter
nat
ive
wat
er s
ourc
es; an
d
•T
he
deg
ree
to w
hic
h a
par
ticu
lar
countr
y’s
inte
rnat
ional
bou
ndar
ies
are
alig
ned
wit
h, or
loc
ated
alo
ng,
shar
ed r
iver
sys
tem
s.
The
outc
ome
of this
sit
uat
ion is
then
fra
med
wit
hin
the
conte
xt o
f th
e st
rate
gic
goal
s an
d o
bje
ctiv
es t
hat
eac
h c
oun
try
has
set
for
its
elf.
In
par
ticu
lar,
tw
o
clos
ely
inte
rrel
ated
asp
ects
are
im
por
tant
her
e:
•F
irst
, th
e deg
ree
of a
tten
tion
or
effo
rt t
hat
eac
h c
ountr
y is
wil
ling
to
focu
s on
acti
on
s d
esi
gn
ed
to m
ain
tain
its
terr
itori
al
inte
gri
ty o
r
nati
on
al
sovere
ign
ty,
an
d t
he c
ircu
mst
an
ces
an
d c
ost
s th
at
it i
s
pre
par
ed t
o bea
r to
ach
ieve
this
aim
; an
d
•Sec
ondly
, th
e pol
itic
al,
soci
al a
nd e
conom
ic l
engt
hs
to w
hic
h e
ach
cou
ntr
y is
pre
par
ed t
o go
to
ach
ieve
a s
tate
of
nat
ion
al ‘
reso
urc
e
secu
rity
’ in
ter
ms
of a
chie
vin
g n
atio
nal
sel
f-su
ffic
ien
cy o
f w
ater
,
food
and e
ner
gy s
uppli
es,
rath
er t
han
dev
elop
ing
a m
ore
pra
gmat
ic,
regi
onal
, an
d s
har
ed p
ersp
ecti
ve w
ith i
ts n
eigh
bou
rs.
We
are
all
kee
nly
aw
are
that
a r
iver
know
s no
bou
nd
arie
s; w
hat
ever
hap
pen
s
to a
riv
er a
t on
e poi
nt w
ill be
tran
spor
ted, tr
ansf
orm
ed a
nd e
xpre
ssed
alo
ng
its
enti
re l
engt
h,
un
til
it r
each
es t
he
ocea
n.
Wh
ere
hu
man
act
ivit
ies
div
ert
or
inte
rru
pt
the f
low
of
wate
r, o
r cau
se d
egra
dati
on
in
wate
r q
uali
ty,
the
conse
quen
ces
are
alw
ays
atte
nuat
ed, tr
ansl
ated
and t
ransm
itte
d d
ownst
ream
.
As
very
few
riv
ers
– o
ther
th
an r
elat
ivel
y sm
all
syst
ems
– a
re c
onta
ined
wit
hin
the
bor
der
s of
a s
ingl
e co
untr
y or
sta
te,
acce
ss t
o w
hol
esom
e su
ppli
es
of w
ater
incr
easi
ngl
y bec
omes
a s
ourc
e of
pot
enti
al c
onfl
ict
when
ever
a r
iver
cros
ses
an i
nte
rnat
ional
bou
ndar
y. T
his
iss
ue
bec
omes
par
ticu
larl
y ac
ute
in
south
ern A
fric
a, w
her
e w
ater
res
ourc
es a
re u
nev
enly
dis
trib
ute
d, an
d w
her
e a
72
Pete
r A
shto
n
gro
un
d w
ate
r an
d su
rface w
ate
rs are
easi
ly p
oll
ute
d w
hen
eff
luen
t is
dis
char
ged;
som
etim
es t
he
adve
rse
effe
cts
of s
uch
inci
den
ts c
an p
ersi
st f
or
dec
ades
. In
turn
, th
is c
an a
dve
rsel
y af
fect
bot
h t
he
inte
grit
y of
the
rece
ivin
g
(aquat
ic)
syst
em, as
wel
l as
the
deg
ree
to w
hic
h o
ther
wat
er u
sers
mig
ht
mak
e
use
of th
e w
ater
. A
gain
st this
bac
kgr
ound, it
is
alm
ost im
pos
sible
to
def
ine
the
own
ersh
ip o
f w
ater
, an
d w
ater
is
now
un
iver
sall
y re
cogn
ised
as
a ‘c
omm
on
good
’ th
at s
hou
ld n
ot b
e ‘p
riva
tely
ow
ned
’. T
his
pri
nci
ple
for
ms
the
bas
is o
f
new
ly p
rom
ulg
ated
nat
ional
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
agem
ent
appro
aches
in S
outh
Afr
ica,
whic
h f
ocus
on a
ll a
spec
ts o
f th
e w
ater
cyc
le w
ithin
the
geog
raphic
al
bou
nds
of a
riv
er b
asin
or
catc
hm
ent
area
(A
smal
1998;
Rep
ubli
c of
Sou
th
Afr
ica
1998).
The
real
isat
ion t
hat
wat
er i
s a
crit
ical
ly i
mpor
tant
reso
urc
e is
not
new
;
indee
d,
our
incr
easi
ng
awar
enes
s of
the
stra
tegi
c im
por
tance
of
wat
er f
uel
led
mos
t of
the
wat
er r
esou
rce
dev
elop
men
t ac
tivi
ties
of
the
last
cen
tury
. T
his
has
also
dri
ven a
ttem
pts
to
‘tra
p’
wat
er,
so a
s to
pro
vide
assu
red s
uppli
es d
uri
ng
seas
ons
when
wat
er i
s not
eas
ily
avai
lable
. T
his
incr
ease
d a
war
enes
s has
als
o
lead
to
the
tran
sfer
of
wat
er f
rom
are
as o
f am
ple
supply
, to
are
as w
her
e w
ater
is i
n s
hor
t su
pply
(A
shto
n &
Man
ley
1999).
How
ever
, th
e cu
rren
t re
alit
y of
south
ern A
fric
a is
one
of e
xpan
din
g pop
ula
tion
s, w
ith i
ts a
ccom
pan
ying
esca
-
lati
on i
n u
rban
isat
ion
an
d i
nd
ust
rial
isat
ion
, as
wel
l as
rap
idly
in
crea
sin
g
dem
ands
for
wat
er t
o re
dre
ss p
ast
iniq
uit
ies.
Giv
en t
his
set
of
circ
um
stan
ces,
we
cannot
con
tinue
as w
e hav
e don
e in
the
pas
t an
d i
rres
pon
sibly
exp
loit
the
finit
e quan
titi
es o
f fr
esh w
ater
that
are
ava
ilab
le i
n t
he
regi
on.
Inst
ead,
we
nee
d t
o re
-exa
min
e th
e w
ays
in w
hic
h w
e der
ive
valu
e fr
om o
ur
use
of
wat
er.
Then
we
nee
d t
o im
ple
men
t pol
icie
s an
d p
ract
ices
that
wil
l en
sure
our
use
of
wat
er r
esou
rces
is
equ
itab
le a
nd
su
stai
nab
le.
Th
is p
hil
osop
hy
is d
irec
tly
anal
ogou
s to
equat
ing
effe
ctiv
e w
ater
res
ourc
e m
anag
emen
t w
ith g
ood g
over
-
nan
ce (
Asm
al 1
998).
In i
ts w
ides
t se
nse
, w
ater
is
a cr
itic
al c
ompon
ent
of t
he
nat
ional
pro
s-
per
ity
of a
cou
ntr
y. T
his
is
bec
ause
wat
er i
s in
extr
icab
ly w
oven
into
irr
igat
ion
and f
ood p
roduct
ion p
roce
sses
, as
wel
l as
the
pro
visi
on o
f en
ergy
and,
occa
-
sion
ally
, to
tra
nsp
orta
tion
sys
tem
s (v
an W
yk 1
998).
Acc
ess
to a
deq
uat
e w
ater
sup
pli
es i
s u
sual
ly s
een
as
a ‘l
ife
or d
eath
’ is
sue;
an
y th
reat
to
dis
rup
t or
pre
vent
acce
ss t
o es
senti
al w
ater
suppli
es b
ecom
es a
n e
mot
ional
ly c
har
ged
and v
olat
ile
topic
of
inte
nse
deb
ate
(Pre
tori
a N
ews
19
98
; 1
99
9a;
19
99
b).
In
extr
eme
case
s, t
he
confr
onta
tion
bet
wee
n c
ompet
ing
par
ties
can
esc
alat
e to
over
t vi
olen
ce (
in t
he
case
of
ind
ivid
ual
s or
com
mu
nit
ies)
, or
to
mil
itar
y
con
fron
tati
on a
nd
, m
ore
rare
ly,
to a
rmed
con
flic
t, i
n t
he
case
of
cou
ntr
ies
75
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
par
tici
pat
ion
has
led
to
seve
ral
inst
ance
s w
her
e th
e ge
ner
al p
ub
lic
hav
e
op
en
ly exp
ress
ed
th
eir
d
issa
tisf
acti
on
an
d,
in extr
em
e case
s, re
jecte
d
pro
pos
als
for
wat
er i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
pro
ject
s. S
uch
cas
es c
an a
lso
be
consi
der
ed
as ‘w
ater
-rel
ated
’ con
flic
ts.
The iss
ues
of
scale
In t
he
earl
ier
des
crip
tion
s of
th
e va
ried
cau
ses
of w
ater
-rel
ated
con
flic
t in
sou
ther
n A
fric
a, w
e b
rief
ly t
ouch
ed o
n t
he
issu
es o
f sp
atia
l an
d t
emp
oral
scal
es. It
is
impor
tant
to n
ote
that
thes
e (s
pat
ial
and t
empor
al)
scal
es o
f w
ater
confl
ict
can e
xert
enor
mou
s in
fluen
ce o
n d
ecis
ion-m
aker
s w
ho
are
sear
chin
g
for
app
rop
riat
e so
luti
ons
(Pre
tori
a N
ews
19
98
, 1
99
9b
). C
onse
qu
entl
y, i
t is
appro
pri
ate
that
we
shou
ld c
onsi
der
them
her
e, s
o th
at t
hei
r im
por
tance
can
be
pro
per
ly c
onte
xtual
ised
in t
he
deb
ate
surr
oundin
g th
e pot
enti
al f
or w
ater
-
bas
ed c
onfl
icts
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a.
Cle
arly
, sc
ale
issu
es s
hou
ld p
lay
an i
mp
orta
nt
role
in
th
e d
ecis
ion
s
taken
by
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
ager
s an
d p
olit
icia
ns.
For
exa
mple
, a
loca
l-sc
ale
confl
ict
bet
wee
n t
wo
adja
cent
landow
ner
s ov
er a
cces
s to
wat
er, w
ould
req
uir
e
far
less
str
ateg
ic (
gove
rnm
ent-
leve
l) i
nte
rven
tion
than
anot
her
wat
er a
cces
s
pro
ble
m t
hat
may
be
con
fou
nd
ed b
y a
terr
itor
ial
dis
pu
te o
ver
the
pre
cise
locati
on
of
an
in
tern
ati
on
al
bou
nd
ary
. N
evert
hele
ss,
it is
im
port
an
t to
rem
em
ber
that
small
er,
‘lo
cal-
scale
’ con
flic
t si
tuati
on
s can
develo
p v
ery
rapid
ly a
nd r
equir
e ap
pro
pri
atel
y ra
pid
res
pon
ses.
In c
ontr
ast,
mos
t la
rger
-
scale
, or
‘in
tern
ati
on
al’
, con
flic
ts t
en
d t
o d
evelo
p m
ore
gra
du
all
y;
an
d
resp
onse
s to
thes
e si
tuat
ions
shou
ld a
lso
be
appro
pri
ate
to t
he
scal
e of
the
pro
ble
m c
onfr
onte
d.
In t
erm
s of
geo
grap
hic
al s
cale
, w
e ca
n r
ecog
nis
e fo
ur
separ
ate
clas
ses:
•In
tra-
com
mu
nit
y, w
her
e co
nfl
ict
over
som
e as
pec
t of
wat
er o
ccu
rs
bet
wee
n m
ember
s of
the
sam
e co
mm
unit
y;
•In
ter-
com
mu
nit
y, r
epre
sen
tin
g a
slig
htl
y la
rger
sca
le,
wh
ere
all
or
mos
t of
th
e in
div
idu
als
wit
hin
eac
h c
omm
un
ity
pre
sen
ts a
un
ited
fron
t in
thei
r dis
pute
or
confl
ict
wit
h a
nei
ghbou
ring
com
munit
y;
•In
ter-
pro
vin
cial
, w
her
e gr
oup
s of
com
mu
nit
ies
or l
ocal
au
thor
itie
s
wit
hin
a s
ingl
e pro
vince
or
regi
onal
auth
orit
y dis
pute
the
righ
ts o
f a
nei
ghbou
ring
pro
vinci
al a
uth
orit
y (i
n t
he
sam
e co
un
try)
to
wat
er t
hat
is n
ot
locate
d w
ith
in t
he g
eogra
ph
ical
are
a o
f ju
risd
icti
on
(e.g
.
typic
al o
f in
ter-
bas
in w
ater
tra
nsf
ers,
wher
e ‘d
onor
’ ca
tchm
ents
are
74
Pete
r A
shto
n
singl
e ri
ver
syst
em m
ay t
rave
rse
or f
orm
sev
eral
inte
rnat
ional
bor
der
s (P
alle
tt
19
96
; B
usi
nes
s R
epor
t1998;
Hey
ns
et a
l 1998).
The
pot
enti
al f
or c
onfl
ict
in
such
sit
uat
ion
s is
bro
ugh
t sh
arp
ly i
nto
foc
us
in t
he
case
of
a co
un
try
that
ob
tain
s th
e m
ajo
r p
rop
ort
ion
of
its
fresh
wate
r su
pp
lies
from
ou
tsid
e i
ts
nat
ional
bor
der
s. B
otsw
ana,
for
exa
mple
, ob
tain
s 94%
of
its
fres
h w
ater
fro
m
nei
ghb
ouri
ng
stat
es;
this
un
dou
bte
dly
con
trib
ute
s to
Bot
swan
a’s
sen
se o
f
vuln
erab
ilit
y (S
AR
DC
1994).
Th
is t
ype
of s
itu
atio
n i
s fu
rth
er c
omp
oun
ded
by
larg
e se
ason
al v
aria
-
tion
s in
flo
w,
as w
ell
as p
erio
dic
dro
ugh
ts a
nd
flo
ods.
In
som
e ca
ses,
th
e
unev
en s
pat
ial
dis
trib
uti
on o
f w
ater
suppli
es h
as a
lso
pro
mot
ed i
nte
rnat
ional
trad
e in
wat
er;
Les
otho
is a
cas
e in
poi
nt,
ear
nin
g va
luab
le f
orei
gn e
xchan
ge
from
th
e w
ater
it
sell
s to
Sou
th A
fric
a. H
owev
er,
in t
he
con
text
of
‘wat
er
trad
ing’
, it
is
impor
tant
to r
eali
se t
hat
ther
e ap
pea
rs t
o be
no
shar
ed u
nder
-
stan
din
g or
agr
eem
ent
as t
o th
e va
lue
of w
ater
; it
is
usu
ally
tre
ated
as
a
‘mig
rant’ r
esou
rce
wit
h a
var
iable
val
ue
(van
Wyk
, 1998).
The
abse
nce
of
an
agre
ed
syst
em
for
valu
ing w
ate
r als
o c
on
trib
ute
s to
pote
nti
al
con
flic
ts
betw
een
neig
hb
ou
rin
g s
tate
s. T
he v
alu
e o
f w
ate
r m
ay a
lso v
ary
wit
h i
ts
avai
lab
ilit
y. D
uri
ng
floo
ds,
for
exa
mp
le,
the
un
it v
alu
e of
ab
un
dan
t w
ater
suppli
es i
s co
nsi
der
ably
les
s th
an a
n e
quiv
alen
t unit
of
wat
er t
hat
is
avai
lable
duri
ng
a dro
ugh
t.
An a
ddit
ional
com
pli
cati
ng
fact
or a
rise
s w
hen
a r
iver
sys
tem
for
ms
the
bou
ndar
y bet
wee
n n
eigh
bou
ring
stat
es. Sea
sonal
chan
ges
in flo
w c
an a
lter
the
shap
e an
d p
osit
ion o
f a
rive
r ch
annel
wit
hin
a r
iver
val
ley;
this
can
res
ult
in
year
-to-
year
ch
ange
s in
th
e ‘a
pp
aren
t’ g
eogr
aph
ical
pos
itio
n o
f a
bou
nd
ary.
Wh
ere
sp
ecif
ic h
um
an
acti
vit
ies
are
ass
ocia
ted
wit
h t
he ‘
ori
gin
al’
riv
er
chan
nel
(fo
r ex
ample
, tr
adit
ional
gra
zing
righ
ts o
n i
slan
ds
or t
he
dre
dgi
ng
of
rive
rine
min
eral
dep
osit
s),
any
alte
rati
on i
n t
he
pos
itio
n o
f th
e ri
ver
and i
ts
asso
ciat
ed i
nte
rnat
ional
bou
ndar
y ca
n l
ead t
o co
nfl
ict.
To
this
‘in
tern
atio
nal
’ dim
ensi
on o
f th
e pot
enti
al c
ause
s of
wat
er c
onfl
ict.
we
can
als
o ad
d a
wid
e va
riet
y of
mor
e lo
cal,
in
ter-
an
d i
ntr
a-co
mm
un
ity
confl
icts
ove
r w
ater
that
can
occ
ur
wit
hin
the
bou
ndar
ies
of a
sin
gle
com
munit
y
or c
oun
try.
Per
hap
s th
e m
ost
freq
uen
tly
enco
un
tere
d o
f th
ese
smal
ler-
scal
e
confl
icts
rel
ates
to
wat
er q
ual
ity
pro
ble
ms
that
res
ult
fro
m u
pst
ream
act
ivi-
ties
. P
roble
ms
of a
cces
s to
wat
er d
uri
ng
crit
ical
per
iods
is a
not
her
im
por
tant
exam
ple
of
a sm
alle
r-sc
ale
confl
ict.
In a
ddit
ion,
mem
ber
s of
the
publi
c hav
e
expre
ssed
a g
row
ing
nee
d t
o be
invo
lved
in d
ecis
ions
rega
rdin
g w
ater
-rel
ated
issu
es w
hic
h m
ay a
ffec
t th
eir
live
s an
d l
ivel
ihoo
ds
(van
Wyk
1998;
Pre
tori
a
New
s1999a)
. F
ailu
re t
o pro
vide
oppor
tunit
ies
for
appro
pri
ate
leve
ls o
f publi
c
77
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
pro
vide
us
wit
h a
n o
verv
iew
of
the
maj
or d
rivi
ng
forc
es t
hat
shap
e nat
ional
an
d r
egio
nal
wate
r re
sou
rce m
an
agem
en
t p
oli
cie
s, a
s w
ell
as
the s
ocia
l,
econ
omic
an
d p
olit
ical
res
pon
ses
that
are
dir
ecte
d t
owar
ds
spec
ific
wat
er
confl
ict
situ
atio
ns.
Geographic
al and g
eo-p
oliti
cal realiti
es
We
hav
e al
read
y n
oted
th
at w
ater
is
un
even
ly d
istr
ibu
ted
acr
oss
sou
ther
n
Afr
ica;
th
is i
s ex
pre
ssed
in
bot
h s
pat
ial
and
tem
por
al (
seas
onal
an
d i
nte
r-
annual
) te
rms.
The
pri
mar
y dri
ving
forc
es f
or t
his
are
the
stee
p E
ast-
Wes
t an
d
Nor
th-S
outh
gra
die
nts
in r
ainfa
ll a
nd e
vapor
atio
n (
Fal
ken
mar
k 1
989;
Con
ley
1995).
This
uneq
ual
dis
trib
uti
on o
f ra
infa
ll a
nd a
ssoc
iate
d r
unof
f is
, in
turn
,
refl
ecte
d in a
str
ikin
g ab
sence
of per
ennia
l ri
vers
and lak
es in s
ome
par
ts o
f th
e
sub
-con
tin
ent
(Fig
ure
1A
). N
amib
ia a
nd
Bot
swan
a ar
e p
arti
cula
rly
poo
rly
endow
ed w
ith p
eren
nia
l ri
vers
. B
oth c
ountr
ies
hav
e to
rel
y al
mos
t en
tire
ly o
n
the
un
pre
dic
tab
le s
up
pli
es o
f w
ater
con
tain
ed i
n m
any
smal
l, e
pis
odic
an
d
ephem
eral
riv
ers
that
flo
w o
nly
aft
er r
ainfa
lls.
The
other
alt
ernat
ive
is to
rely
on
76
Pete
r A
shto
n
seld
om c
omp
ensa
ted
ad
equ
atel
y, a
nd
‘re
cip
ien
t’ c
atch
men
ts r
eap
alm
ost
all
of t
he
ben
efit
s); an
d
•In
tern
atio
nal
, w
her
e on
e co
un
try
may
con
test
som
e, o
r al
l, o
f th
e
righ
ts t
o use
wat
er f
rom
an a
quat
ic s
yste
m t
hat
it
shar
es w
ith o
ne
or
mor
e of
its
nei
ghbou
rs.
Typ
ical
exa
mple
s of
this
typ
e w
ould
incl
ude
so-c
alle
d r
ipar
ian
rig
hts
to
rive
rs t
hat
are
loc
ated
on
in
tern
atio
nal
bou
nd
arie
s, o
r th
e si
tuat
ion
wh
ere
a ri
ver
cros
ses
an i
nte
rnat
ion
al
bou
ndar
y an
d g
ives
ris
e to
dis
pute
s bet
wee
n ‘
upst
ream
’ an
d ‘
dow
n-
stre
am’ c
ountr
ies.
In a
dd
itio
n t
o th
ese
stri
ctly
sp
atia
l sc
ales
, ge
o-p
olit
ical
con
sid
erat
ion
s ca
n
ad
d a
fu
rth
er
dim
en
sion
of
con
flic
t to
th
ose
rela
ted
to t
he s
pati
al
scale
s
outl
ined
abov
e. H
ere,
typ
ical
exa
mple
s w
ould
incl
ude:
•C
onfl
icts
that
ari
se b
etw
een ‘
upst
ream
’ an
d ‘
dow
nst
ream
’ co
untr
ies
as a
res
ult
of
spec
ific
act
ivit
ies
or d
eman
ds
of o
ne
or b
oth
of
the
countr
ies
conce
rned
;
•C
onfl
icts
th
at a
rise
wh
en c
oun
trie
s d
isp
ute
th
e p
reci
se l
ocat
ion
of
the i
nte
rnati
on
al
bou
nd
ari
es
that
sep
ara
te t
hem
an
d w
hic
h a
lso
coin
cide
wit
h, or
are
ali
gned
to,
riv
ers
or o
ther
aquat
ic s
yste
ms;
and
•C
on
flic
ts c
au
sed
by t
he n
atu
ral
or
art
ific
ial
‘alt
era
tion
’ of
river
cou
rses
that
con
stit
ute
or
dem
arc
ate
in
tern
ati
on
al
bou
nd
ari
es
bet
wee
n t
wo
countr
ies.
Th
e sc
ale
of a
ctiv
itie
s ca
rrie
d o
ut
by
the
ind
ivid
ual
cou
ntr
ies
con
cern
ed,
ofte
n a
ccen
tuat
es t
hes
e pro
ble
ms
of ‘
geog
raphic
al’
and ‘
geo-
pol
itic
al’
scal
e.
For
exa
mple
, if
an ‘u
pst
ream
’ cou
ntr
y op
erat
es a
lar
ge i
mpou
ndm
ent,
this
wil
l
affe
ct the
tim
ing,
fre
quen
cy, dura
tion
and q
uan
tity
of w
ater
flo
w, as
wel
l as
the
corr
esp
ond
ing
silt
loa
ds
and
wat
er q
ual
ity
that
are
rec
eive
d b
y th
e ‘d
own
-
stre
am’ co
untr
y. S
imil
arly
, ef
fluen
ts d
isch
arge
d b
y an
‘upst
ream
’ co
untr
y ca
n
have m
ark
ed
ad
vers
e c
on
seq
uen
ces
for
wate
r u
sers
in
th
e ‘
dow
nst
ream
’
countr
y. I
n a
ddit
ion,
nat
ura
l, f
lood
-induce
d f
low
s ca
n c
han
ge t
he
pos
itio
n o
r
shap
e of
a r
iver
chan
nel
, th
ereb
y ‘a
lter
ing’
the
theo
reti
cal
pos
itio
n o
f an
inte
r-
nat
ional
bou
ndar
y; t
his
can
‘ben
efit
’ on
e co
untr
y, w
hil
st a
dve
rsel
y af
fect
ing
its
nei
ghbou
r.
In o
rder
to
full
y ap
pre
ciat
e th
e co
mple
xiti
es that
char
acte
rise
act
ual
and
pot
enti
al w
ater
con
flic
ts i
n s
outh
ern A
fric
a – a
s op
pos
ed t
o th
ose
that
may
or
may
not
occ
ur
else
wher
e in
the
wor
ld –
it
is e
ssen
tial
that
we
revi
ew s
ome
of
the
mai
n g
eogr
aph
ical
an
d g
eo-p
olit
ical
rea
liti
es o
f th
e re
gion
. T
his
wil
l
BA
Fig
ure 1
. D
iagram
mati
c m
aps
com
parin
g (
A)
the d
istr
ibuti
on o
f
larger p
erennia
l riv
ers
and lakes
in A
fric
a,
wit
h (
B)
the locati
ons
of
actu
al or p
ote
nti
al w
ate
r-r
ela
ted c
onfl
icts
. It
is
noti
ceable
that
riv
ers
form
the inte
rnati
onal boundarie
s betw
een s
everal A
fric
an
countr
ies
79
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
alon
g th
e lo
wer
Ora
nge
Riv
er.
Her
e, t
he
orig
inal
agr
eem
ent
dra
wn
up
by
Bri
tain
and G
erm
any
duri
ng
the
nin
etee
nth
cen
tury
, co
nfi
rmed
that
the
enti
re
low
er r
each
es o
f th
e O
range
Riv
er b
elon
ged t
o Sou
th A
fric
a. S
ubse
quen
tly,
an
d i
n c
on
form
an
ce w
ith
gen
era
lly a
ccep
ted
in
tern
ati
on
al
pra
cti
ce f
or
bor
der
s lo
cate
d a
long
rive
rs,
Sou
th A
fric
a ag
reed
to
‘rel
ocat
e’ t
his
bor
der
to
the
Thalw
eg(t
he
centr
e of
the
dee
pes
t por
tion
of
the
rive
r ch
annel
). W
hil
st
this
mov
e re
solv
ed N
amib
ia’s
pro
ble
ms
of a
cces
s to
th
e O
ran
ge R
iver
, th
e
acti
on r
esu
lted
in
sev
eral
un
anti
cip
ated
dis
pu
tes
arou
nd
all
uvi
al m
inin
g
righ
ts,
graz
ing
righ
ts a
nd
off
shor
e fi
shin
g ri
ghts
. T
hes
e co
nte
nti
ous
issu
es,
thou
gh n
ot s
tric
tly
‘wat
er c
onfl
icts
’, h
ave
aris
en a
s a
resu
lt o
f w
ater
con
flic
t
and
rem
ain
un
reso
lved
to
dat
e. S
ome
of t
hei
r im
pli
cati
ons
are
des
crib
ed
bri
efly
in t
he
nex
t se
ctio
n o
f th
is p
aper
.
The
guid
ing
lega
l pri
nci
ple
s th
at u
nder
lay
the
choi
ce o
f th
e T
halw
egas
the
pos
itio
n o
f an
inte
rnat
ional
bou
ndar
y, a
re f
irm
ly a
ccep
ted i
n i
nte
rnat
ional
law
(IL
C 1
994;
ILA
1996).
Nev
erth
eles
s, i
t is
im
por
tant
to r
ecog
nis
e th
e fa
ct
that
riv
ers
are
dyn
amic
, ‘liv
ing’
sys
tem
s w
hic
h c
onti
nual
ly c
han
ge t
he
shap
e
and l
ocat
ion o
f th
eir
chan
nel
s ov
er t
ime.
Thus,
it
is i
nev
itab
le t
hat
the
pre
cise
geog
raphic
pos
itio
n o
f th
e T
halw
egw
ill
also
chan
ge w
ith t
ime.
This
im
por
tant
feat
ure
of
rive
rs c
arri
es w
ith i
t th
e se
eds
of p
oten
tial
futu
re c
onfl
icts
bet
wee
n
countr
ies
wher
e th
eir
mutu
al b
order
is
def
ined
sol
ely
by
the
pos
itio
n o
f th
e
Th
alw
eg.
A c
lose
ly r
elat
ed i
ssu
e is
on
e w
her
e th
e T
ha
lweg
has
not
bee
n
incl
ud
ed i
n t
he
def
init
ion
of
the
bor
der
an
d,
inst
ead
, th
e b
ord
er i
s m
erel
y
des
crib
ed a
s ‘t
he
cen
tre
of t
he
mai
n r
iver
ch
ann
el’. I
n s
uch
sit
uat
ion
s, t
he
pot
enti
al f
or c
onfl
ict
bet
wee
n c
ountr
ies
is g
reat
ly e
nhan
ced b
y ea
ch n
atura
l
chan
ge t
hat
the
rive
r under
goes
.
Som
e s
outh
ern A
fric
an e
xam
ple
s of
wate
r-r
ela
ted c
onfl
icts
Aga
inst
th
e b
ack
grou
nd
des
crip
tion
s an
d i
nfo
rmat
ion
pro
vid
ed a
bov
e, i
t is
appro
pri
ate
that
we
revi
ew a
few
sou
ther
n A
fric
an e
xam
ple
s of
act
ual
wat
er-
rela
ted
con
flic
ts t
hat
hav
e oc
curr
ed,
or p
oten
tial
wat
er c
onfl
icts
th
at c
ould
soon
occ
ur.
Th
e fe
w d
etai
ls a
vail
able
for
eac
h o
f th
e th
ree
exam
ple
s gi
ven
belo
w h
ave b
een
gle
an
ed
fro
m v
ery
scan
ty p
ub
lish
ed
in
form
ati
on
an
d
per
sonal
exp
erie
nce
in e
ach a
rea.
Whil
st t
he
info
rmat
ion a
vail
able
for
eac
h
exam
ple
is
clea
rly
inco
mple
te,
it d
oes
pro
vide
us
wit
h s
uff
icie
nt
insi
ght
into
the
scal
e an
d c
omple
xiti
es o
f th
e re
spec
tive
pro
ble
ms.
Spec
ific
sol
uti
ons
to
each
of
thes
e th
ree
pro
ble
ms
wil
l on
ly b
e at
tain
ed i
f al
l th
e par
ties
con
cern
ed
78
Pete
r A
shto
n
per
ennia
l ri
vers
that
ris
e ou
tsid
e th
eir
bor
der
s (P
alle
tt 1
986; H
eyns
et a
l 1998).
The
area
s w
her
e w
ater
-rel
ated
con
flic
ts h
ave
alre
ady
occu
rred
in A
fric
a
– o
r w
her
e lo
cal
ten
sion
s ar
e h
igh
an
d c
ould
lea
d t
o fu
ture
con
flic
ts –
is
show
n i
n F
igure
1B
. T
her
e is
a r
emar
kab
le c
orre
spon
den
ce b
etw
een t
he
site
s
of a
ctual
or
pot
enti
al w
ater
con
flic
t, a
nd t
he
abse
nce
or
scar
city
of
per
ennia
l
rive
rs o
r la
kes
in A
fric
a. I
n t
his
dis
cuss
ion,
our
atte
nti
on w
ill
be
focu
ssed
on
south
ern A
fric
a.
The
so-c
alle
d c
olon
ial
‘scr
amble
for
Afr
ica’
whic
h t
ook p
lace
duri
ng
the
last
hal
f of
the
nin
etee
nth
cen
tury
and e
arly
tw
enti
eth c
entu
ry (
Pac
ken
ham
1991),
added
yet
anot
her
dim
ensi
on t
o th
e pot
enti
al c
ause
s of
wat
er-r
elat
ed
confl
icts
. In
par
ticu
lar,
the
fail
ure
of
bou
ndar
y su
rvey
ors
to c
lear
ly d
efin
e th
e
exact
locati
on
s of
inte
rnati
on
al
bord
ers
locate
d a
lon
g r
iver
syst
em
s, h
as
resu
lted
in c
onsi
der
able
con
fusi
on (
Han
gula
1993;
Fis
ch 1
999).
This
sit
ua-
tion
was
furt
her
agg
rava
ted b
y th
e te
rms
and c
ondit
ions
of b
order
tre
atie
s an
d
agre
em
en
ts d
raw
n u
p b
y c
olo
nia
l p
ow
ers
as
a m
ean
s of
part
itio
nin
g t
he
Afr
ican
con
tin
en
t, a
nd
reso
lvin
g o
r sa
tisf
yin
g t
heir
com
peti
ng t
err
itori
al
clai
ms.
In p
arti
cula
r, t
he
Ber
lin T
reat
y, d
raw
n u
p o
n 1
July
1890,
redef
ined
som
e of
th
e ge
o-p
olit
ical
bou
nd
arie
s b
etw
een
Ger
man
col
onie
s in
sou
ther
n
and
eas
tern
Afr
ica,
an
d t
hei
r n
eigh
bou
rin
g P
ortu
gues
e, E
ngl
ish
an
d S
outh
Afr
ican
cou
nte
rpar
ts.
As
a re
sult
, th
e Tre
aty
has
lef
t a
lega
cy o
f pro
ble
ms
for
succ
essi
ve a
dm
inis
trat
ions
(Han
gula
1993).
Wit
h t
he
exce
pti
on o
f th
e S
edu
du
/Kas
ikil
i Is
lan
d d
isp
ute
wh
ich
was
recen
tly se
ttle
d in
th
e In
tern
ati
on
al
Cou
rt of
Just
ice (I
CJ
19
99
), th
is
con
fusi
ng s
itu
ati
on
con
tin
ues
to t
he p
rese
nt
day a
lon
g N
am
ibia
’s n
ort
h-
east
ern C
apri
vi b
order
wit
h B
otsw
ana,
invo
lvin
g th
e C
hob
e R
iver
, as
wel
l as
the
adja
cent
sect
ion o
f it
s bor
der
wit
h Z
ambia
, in
volv
ing
the
Zam
bez
i R
iver
(Fig
ure
3:
Han
gula
1993;
Fis
ch 1
999).
On a
ttai
nin
g in
dep
enden
ce i
n 1
990,
Nam
ibia
adop
ted t
he
pri
nci
ple
s la
id d
own i
n A
rtic
le i
ii,
par
agra
ph 3
, of
the
Ch
arte
r of
th
e O
rgan
isat
ion
of
Afr
ican
Un
ity
(OA
U),
wh
ich
was
sig
ned
by
Hea
ds
of S
tate
s an
d G
over
nm
ents
in 1
964. A
ll (
OA
U)
mem
ber
sta
tes
ple
dge
d
to r
ecog
nis
e an
d r
espec
t th
e nat
ional
bou
ndar
ies
def
ined
by
earl
ier
colo
nia
l
adm
inis
trat
ion
s (H
angu
la 1
99
3).
Des
pit
e th
is r
atif
icat
ion
, b
ord
er d
isp
ute
s
con
tin
ue
to p
ersi
st i
n t
he
Cap
rivi
reg
ion
of
Nam
ibia
(H
angu
la 1
99
3;
Fis
ch
19
99
). T
he
jud
gem
ent
han
ded
dow
n b
y th
e In
tern
atio
nal
Cou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e
fou
nd
th
at S
edu
du
/Kas
ikil
i Is
lan
d f
orm
s p
art
of t
he
sove
reig
n t
erri
tory
of
Bot
swan
a (I
CJ
1999).
A r
elat
ed i
ssue,
als
o in
volv
ing
Nam
ibia
, co
nce
rns
the
relo
cate
d,
‘new
’
pos
itio
n o
f th
e in
tern
atio
nal
bou
nd
ary
bet
wee
n S
outh
Afr
ica
and
Nam
ibia
,
81
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
1,4
4 M
m3/y
ear
(11%
). A
ddit
ional
stu
die
s hav
e sh
own t
hat
thes
e ef
fect
s co
uld
be
reduce
d b
y so
me
10-1
3%
if
wat
er a
bst
ract
ion w
as c
onfi
ned
to
a si
x-m
onth
per
iod d
uri
ng
the
fall
ing
lim
b o
f th
e hyd
rogr
aph,
inst
ead o
f co
nti
nuou
s (y
ear-
round)
wit
hdra
wal
(A
shto
n &
Man
ley
1999).
Hyd
rolo
gica
l si
mu
lati
ons
hav
e sh
own
th
at t
he
max
imu
m l
ikel
y lo
ss o
f
inundat
ed a
rea
in t
he
Okav
ango
Del
ta w
ould
am
ount
to a
ppro
xim
atel
y 7 k
m2
80
Pete
r A
shto
n
dem
onst
rate
a g
reat
dea
l of
tac
t an
d d
iplo
mac
y, a
s w
ell
as a
hig
h l
evel
of
mutu
al u
nder
stan
din
g an
d p
atie
nce
.
Wate
r a
bst
racti
on f
rom
the O
kavango R
iver (
Angola
,
Nam
ibia
and B
ots
wana)
Th
e N
amib
ian
Dep
artm
ent
of W
ater
Aff
airs
has
fac
ed c
onsi
der
able
pu
bli
c
pre
ssure
to
reli
eve
the
wat
er s
hor
tage
s ca
use
d b
y re
cent
dro
ugh
ts i
n N
amib
ia.
One
pot
enti
al o
pti
on i
nvo
lved
abst
ract
ion o
f so
me
17 M
m3
of w
ater
per
yea
r
from
the
Okav
ango
Riv
er a
t R
undu,
and i
ts t
ransf
er v
ia a
260 k
m p
ipel
ine
to
the h
ead
of
the E
ast
ern
Nati
on
al
Wate
r C
arr
ier
(EN
WC
) at
the t
ow
n o
f
Gro
otfo
nte
in (
Hey
ns
19
95
; H
eyn
s et
al
19
98
). T
he
gen
eral
loc
atio
n o
f th
e
pro
pos
ed p
ipel
ine,
and i
ts p
osit
ion r
elat
ive
to t
he
catc
hm
ent
of t
he
Okav
ango
Riv
er a
nd O
kav
ango
Del
ta,
are
show
n i
n F
igure
2.
A t
otal
of
thre
e co
untr
ies
com
pri
se t
he c
atc
hm
en
t of
the O
kavan
go D
elt
a:
An
gola
, N
am
ibia
an
d
Bot
swan
a. Z
imbab
we
is p
art
of t
he
subsi
dia
ry N
ata
Riv
er s
yste
m w
hic
h f
low
s
into
th
e M
ak
gad
ikgad
i P
an
s, a
nd
is
not
con
sid
ere
d t
o f
orm
part
of
the
Okav
ango
Del
ta c
atch
men
t; c
onse
quen
tly,
Zim
bab
we
shou
ld n
ot b
e in
volv
ed
in d
iscu
ssio
ns
conce
rnin
g ac
tion
s or
act
ivit
ies
that
may
aff
ect
the
Okav
ango
Del
ta (
Fig
ure
2).
The
inte
rnat
ional
bor
der
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la i
s lo
cate
d a
long
the O
kavan
go R
iver,
over
the d
eep
est
port
ion
of
the r
iver
ch
an
nel
(th
e
Thalw
eg).
Thus,
bot
h N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la m
ainta
in t
hat
they
hav
e a
‘rip
aria
n
righ
t’ t
o ab
stra
ct w
ater
fro
m t
his
sec
tion
of
the
Okav
ango
Riv
er. H
owev
er, th
e
pro
pos
ed w
ater
abst
ract
ion s
chem
e has
rai
sed c
once
rn i
n b
oth N
amib
ia a
nd
Bot
swan
a. B
oth c
ountr
ies
bel
ieve
that
the
schem
e co
uld
hav
e ad
vers
e co
nse
-
quen
ces
for
the
Okav
ango
Del
ta i
n B
otsw
ana.
As
a re
sult
, it
was
im
por
tant
to
all
the
countr
ies
conce
rned
that
the
pot
enti
al e
nvi
ronm
enta
l im
pac
ts o
f th
e
pro
pos
ed w
ater
abst
ract
ion s
chem
e be
asse
ssed
(A
shto
n 1
999).
Det
aile
d h
ydro
logi
cal
eval
uat
ion
s of
th
e p
rop
osed
wat
er a
bst
ract
ion
schem
e hav
e sh
own t
hat
the
schem
e re
pre
sents
a r
educt
ion o
f ap
pro
xim
atel
y
0.3
2%
in
th
e m
ean
an
nu
al
flow
of
the O
kavan
go R
iver
at
Ru
nd
u.
Th
e
abst
ract
ion
wil
l al
so r
epre
sen
t 0
.17
% o
f th
e m
ean
an
nu
al f
low
at
Mu
kw
e,
dow
nst
ream
of
the
Cu
ito
Riv
er c
onfl
uen
ce.
Bot
h q
uan
titi
es a
re v
ery
smal
l
when
com
par
ed w
ith t
he
aver
age
annual
vol
um
e of
wat
er t
hat
flo
ws
dow
n t
he
Okav
ango
Riv
er e
ach y
ear
(10,0
00 M
m3
per
yea
r; A
shto
n &
Man
ley
1999).
The
adve
rse
effe
cts
of t
he
schem
e w
ould
be
insi
gnif
ican
t al
ong
the
Okav
ango
Riv
er
in N
am
ibia
, w
hil
st o
utf
low
s fr
om
th
e l
ow
er
en
d o
f th
e O
kavan
go
Del
ta t
o th
e T
ham
alak
ane
Riv
er i
n B
otsw
ana
wou
ld b
e re
du
ced
by
som
e
Za
mb
ez
i R
ive
r
ZA
MB
IA
Fig
ure
2.
Sketc
h m
ap o
f th
e O
kavango R
iver
catc
hm
ent.
Deta
ilin
g t
he locati
ons
of
pri
ncip
al ri
vers
and n
eig
hbouri
ng c
oun-
trie
s in
rela
tion t
o t
he O
kavango D
elt
a.
The p
ropose
d r
oute
of
the
wate
r abst
racti
on p
ipeline in N
am
ibia
is
als
o s
how
n.
The s
haded
port
ion o
f th
e c
atc
hm
ent
repre
sents
the z
one w
hic
h p
rovid
es
surf
ace r
un-o
ff;
the a
rea indic
ate
d b
y t
he u
nsh
aded p
ort
ion o
f th
e
catc
hm
ent
appears
not
to h
ave p
rovid
ed s
urf
ace r
un-o
ff in liv
ing
mem
ory
. T
he s
ubsi
dia
ry,
seaso
nal N
ata
Riv
er
syst
em
flo
win
g into
the M
akgadik
gadi P
ans
from
Zim
babw
e is
locate
d t
o t
he e
ast
of
the O
kavango D
elt
a.
(Red
raw
n f
rom
Ash
ton
& M
anle
y 1
99
9)
83
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
sub
ject
of
a fo
rmal
dis
pu
te b
etw
een
th
e govern
men
ts of
Nam
ibia
an
d
Bot
swan
a si
nce
1996,
when
bot
h g
over
nm
ents
agr
eed t
o su
bm
it t
hei
r cl
aim
s
for
sove
reig
nty
of
the
isla
nd t
o th
e In
tern
atio
nal
Cou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e (I
CJ)
in T
he
Hag
ue
(IC
J 1999).
Pri
or t
o th
is f
orm
alis
atio
n o
f th
e dis
pute
, th
e ‘o
wner
ship
’
of S
edudu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd h
ad b
een d
ispute
d b
y lo
cal
resi
den
ts i
n N
amib
ia
an
d B
ots
wan
a,
as
well
as
pre
ced
ing c
olo
nia
l govern
men
ts.
Dis
pu
te o
ver
the i
slan
d’s
ow
ners
hip
date
s b
ack
to t
he B
erl
in T
reaty
of
1 J
uly
18
90
(Han
gula
1993;
Fis
ch 1
999).
A b
rief
outl
ine
of t
he
grou
nds
for
the
dis
pute
has
bee
n d
raw
n f
rom
th
e of
fici
al p
ress
com
mu
niq
ué,
wh
ich
an
nou
nce
d t
he
Inte
rnat
ional
Cou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e’s
dec
isio
n t
o re
cogn
ise
the
terr
itor
ial
clai
ms
of
Bot
swan
a (I
CJ
19
99
). T
wo
sket
ch m
aps
show
th
e ge
ogra
ph
ical
pos
itio
n o
f
Sed
ud
u/K
asi
kil
i Is
lan
d,
as
well
as
the l
ocati
on
s of
oth
er
isla
nd
s w
hose
82
Pete
r A
shto
n
out
of a
tot
al a
rea
of a
bou
t 8,0
00 k
m2.
This
pot
enti
al l
oss
in i
nundat
ed a
rea
wou
ld b
e co
nce
ntr
ated
in t
he
low
er r
each
es o
f th
e se
ason
al s
wam
ps
gras
slan
ds,
spec
ific
ally
in t
he
low
er r
each
es o
f th
e B
oro,
Gom
oti,
San
tanta
dib
e an
d T
hao
ge
chan
nel
s. H
owev
er, th
ese
effe
cts
wou
ld b
e ex
pre
ssed
as
a sh
orel
ine
effe
ct, w
ith
the
loss
in a
rea
spre
ad o
ut
alon
g th
e sh
orel
ine
and i
slan
ds,
and w
ould
not
be
rest
rict
ed t
o a
spec
ific
are
a. T
his
anti
cipat
ed l
oss
in i
nundat
ed a
rea
is u
nli
kel
y
to h
ave
mea
sura
ble
im
pac
ts o
n e
nvi
ronm
enta
l co
mpon
ents
in a
ny
spec
ific
are
a
(Ash
ton &
Man
ley
1999).
In b
oth
Nam
ibia
an
d B
otsw
ana,
th
e in
itia
l p
ub
lic
per
cep
tion
s of
th
e
pro
pos
ed w
ater
tra
nsf
er p
roje
ct w
ere
stro
ngl
y n
egat
ive
(Ash
ton
19
99
). T
he
pro
pos
ed w
ater
abst
ract
ion w
as s
een a
s hav
ing
the
pot
enti
al t
o ad
vers
ely
affe
ct
the
tou
rism
in
du
stry
alo
ng
the
Ok
avan
go R
iver
in
Nam
ibia
, an
d i
n t
he
Okav
ango
Del
ta i
n B
otsw
ana,
wit
h a
pos
sible
los
s of
inco
me
for
loca
l re
siden
ts.
How
ever
, th
e en
viro
nm
enta
l as
sess
men
t st
udy
found n
o ‘fat
al f
law
s’ t
hat
wou
ld
pre
vent
the
wat
er a
bst
ract
ion s
chem
e fr
om p
roce
edin
g. W
hil
st t
he
anti
cipat
ed
effe
cts
are
mor
e li
kel
y to
be
seen
in t
he
Okav
ango
Del
ta i
n B
otsw
ana
– r
ather
than
alo
ng
the
Okav
ango
Riv
er i
n N
amib
ia –
the
anti
cipat
ed e
colo
gica
l im
pli
-
cati
ons
of the
schem
e w
ere
smal
l in
spat
ial ex
tent,
and w
ould
not
be
per
cepti
ble
agai
nst
the
nat
ura
l ye
ar-t
o-ye
ar v
aria
bil
ity
in i
nundat
ion o
f th
e O
kav
ango
Del
ta
or o
utf
low
s to
the
Tham
alak
ane
Riv
er (A
shto
n &
Man
ley
1999).
Th
e ov
eral
l ou
tcom
e of
th
e ‘t
ech
nic
al’
eval
uat
ion
s of
th
e an
tici
pat
ed
scal
e, a
s w
ell
as t
he
seve
rity
of
pos
sible
im
pac
ts,
clea
rly
indic
ates
that
the
impac
ts w
ould
be
very
sm
all
and,
in m
ost
area
s, w
ould
not
be
mea
sura
ble
by
conve
nti
onal
mea
sure
men
t te
chniq
ues
. H
owev
er, it
was
als
o cl
ear
to t
he
study
team
that
the
publi
c per
cepti
ons
wer
e sh
aped
by
per
sonal
opin
ions,
and t
hat
ther
e w
as a
rel
ativ
ely
wid
esp
read
rej
ecti
on o
f th
e te
chn
ical
fin
din
gs (
or a
refu
sal to
‘bel
ieve
the
fact
s’) w
hic
h w
ere
pre
sente
d to
the
publi
c. T
her
efor
e, if a
dec
isio
n i
s fi
nal
ly t
aken
to
pro
ceed
wit
h t
he
pro
pos
ed w
ater
ab
stra
ctio
n
schem
e, t
he
publi
c ar
e li
kel
y to
att
ribute
to
the
pro
ject
any
and a
ll a
dve
rse
situ
atio
ns
or c
ircu
mst
ance
s th
at m
ay a
rise
, whet
her
thes
e m
ay b
e ca
use
d b
y th
e
pro
ject
or
by
som
e ot
her
set
of
circ
um
stan
ces,
such
as
glob
al c
lim
ate
chan
ge.
Cle
arly
, if
th
is p
roje
ct,
or a
ny
oth
er w
ater
ab
stra
ctio
n p
roje
ct,
doe
s in
dee
d
pro
ceed
, th
e go
vern
men
ts o
f ea
ch o
f th
e bas
in c
ountr
ies
(Ango
la, N
amib
ia a
nd
Bot
swan
a) w
ill
hav
e to
open
ly d
emon
stra
te t
hei
r su
ppor
t fo
r th
e pro
ject
.
Dis
pute
d o
wnersh
ip o
f Sedudu/K
asi
kili Is
land in t
he
Chobe R
iver (
Nam
ibia
and B
ots
wana)
Th
e ow
ner
ship
of
Sed
ud
u/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd
in
th
e C
hob
e R
iver
has
bee
n t
he
Fig
ure
3.
Sketc
h m
ap o
f th
e E
ast
ern
Capri
vi re
gio
n o
f N
am
ibia
wit
h t
he n
eig
hbouri
ng t
err
itori
es
of
Zam
bia
, Zim
babw
e a
nd
Bots
wana.
The g
enera
l are
a o
f Sedudu/K
asi
kili Is
land in r
ela
tion
to t
he e
xte
nsi
ve w
etl
and a
reas
is s
how
n.
Num
bere
d a
rrow
s in
dic
ate
the locati
ons
of
the s
ix isl
ands
whose
ow
ners
hip
is
dis
pute
d:
1 =
Mantu
ngu;
2 =
Im
palila
; 3
= S
edudu/K
asi
kili;
4 =
Kavula
;
5 =
L
um
bo;
6 =
Muntu
ngobusw
a.
The inse
t box o
utl
ines
the
are
a a
round S
edudu/K
asi
kili Is
land t
hat
is s
how
n in F
igure
4
85
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
owner
ship
is
also
dis
pute
d (
Fig
ure
3).
Som
e det
ails
of
the
loca
l te
rrai
n a
nd
the p
osi
tion
s of
river
ch
an
nels
su
rrou
nd
ing S
ed
ud
u/K
asi
kil
i Is
lan
d a
lso
feat
ure
(F
igure
4).
The
isla
nd k
now
n a
s ‘S
edudu’ in
Bot
swan
a an
d ‘K
asik
ili’ i
n N
amib
ia, is
appro
xim
atel
y 3,5
km
2in
are
a an
d i
s lo
cate
d i
n t
he
Chob
e R
iver
(F
igure
4).
The
Chob
e R
iver
div
ides
aro
und t
he
isla
nd,
flow
ing
to t
he
nor
th a
nd s
outh
,
and t
he
isla
nd i
s fl
ooded
to
vary
ing
dep
ths
for
bet
wee
n t
hre
e an
d f
our
mon
ths
each
yea
r (u
sual
ly b
egin
nin
g in
Mar
ch),
fol
low
ing
seas
onal
rai
ns
(IC
J 1999).
On 2
9 M
ay 1
996,
bot
h N
amib
ia a
nd B
otsw
ana
join
tly
subm
itte
d t
hei
r
case
s fo
r te
rrit
oria
l so
vere
ignty
of
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd t
o th
e IC
J, a
skin
g
the
Cou
rt f
or a
ruli
ng
bas
ed o
n t
he
pri
nci
ple
s of
Inte
rnat
ional
Law
(IC
J 1999)
and t
he
Angl
o-G
erm
an B
erli
n T
reat
y of
1890.
The
his
tori
cal or
igin
s of
the
dis
pute
are
con
tain
ed in the
Ber
lin T
reat
y of
1890,
when
the
east
ern b
oundar
ies
of t
he
Cap
rivi
Str
ip w
ere
def
ined
in v
ery
vagu
e te
rms
as ‘
the
mid
dle
of
the
mai
n c
han
nel
’ of
th
e C
hob
e R
iver
. T
he
Tre
aty
was
in
stit
ute
d t
o se
par
ate
the
sph
eres
of
infl
uen
ce o
f G
erm
any
and
Gre
at B
rita
in.
In t
he
opin
ion o
f th
e IC
J, t
her
efor
e, t
he
dis
pute
cen
tred
on t
he
pre
cise
loc
atio
n o
f th
e ‘m
ain c
han
nel
’. B
otsw
ana
conte
nded
that
this
is
the
84
Pete
r A
shto
n
Fig
ure 4
. E
xpanded v
iew
of
a p
orti
on o
f F
igure 3
, sh
ow
ing t
he
posi
tion o
f Sedudu/K
asi
kili Is
land in r
ela
tion t
o t
he C
hobe a
nd
Zam
bezi riv
ers,
as
well a
s th
e locati
ons
of
the ‘
north
ern’
and
‘south
ern’
channels
of
the C
hobe R
iver f
low
ing a
round
Sedudu/K
asi
kili Is
land
chan
nel
runnin
g to
the
nor
th o
f th
e is
land, w
hil
st N
amib
ia c
onte
nded
that
the
chan
nel
to
the
south
of
the
isla
nd w
as t
he
mai
n c
han
nel
(F
igure
4).
Sin
ce t
he
term
s of
the
Ber
lin T
reat
y did
not
def
ine
the
loca
tion
of th
e ch
annel
, th
e C
ourt
pro
ceed
ed t
o det
erm
ine
whic
h o
f th
e tw
o ch
annel
s co
uld
pro
per
ly b
e co
nsi
d-
ered
to
be
the
‘mai
n c
han
nel
’ (IC
J 1999).
In o
rder
to
achie
ve t
his
, th
e IC
J co
nsi
der
ed b
oth t
he
dim
ensi
ons
(dep
th
and
wid
th)
of t
he
two
chan
nel
s an
d t
he
rela
tive
vol
um
es o
f w
ater
flo
win
g
wit
hin
thes
e tw
o ch
annel
s, a
s w
ell
as t
he
bed
pro
file
con
figu
rati
on a
nd t
he
nav
igab
ilit
y of
eac
h c
han
nel
. T
he
Cou
rt c
onsi
der
ed s
ub
mis
sion
s m
ade
by
bot
h p
arti
es,
as w
ell
as i
nfo
rmat
ion
ob
tain
ed f
rom
in
sit
usu
rvey
s d
uri
ng
dif
fere
nt
per
iods
of s
easo
nal
flo
w.
Aga
inst
the
bac
kgr
ound o
f th
e ob
ject
and
purp
ose
of the
Ber
lin T
reat
y, a
s w
ell as
the
subse
quen
t pra
ctic
es o
f th
e par
ties
to t
he
Tre
aty,
the
Cou
rt f
ound t
hat
nei
ther
of
the
two
countr
ies
had
rea
ched
an
y p
rior
agre
em
en
t as
to t
he i
nte
rpre
tati
on
of
the T
reaty
, n
or
had
th
ey
reac
hed
agr
eem
ent
rega
rdin
g th
e ap
pli
cati
on o
f it
s pro
visi
ons
(IC
J 1999).
In r
each
ing
its
verd
ict,
the
Cou
rt a
lso
consi
der
ed N
amib
ian c
laim
s th
at
loca
l N
amib
ian
res
iden
ts f
rom
th
e C
apri
vi a
rea
had
per
iod
ical
ly o
ccu
pie
d
Sed
ud
u/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd
sin
ce t
he
beg
inn
ing
of t
he
twen
tiet
h c
entu
ry.
Th
e
Cou
rt c
onsi
der
ed t
hat
this
occ
upat
ion c
ould
not
be
seen
to
refl
ect
the
func-
tion
al a
ct o
f a
stat
e au
thor
ity,
eve
n t
hou
gh N
amib
ia r
egar
ded
this
‘occ
upat
ion’
as a
bas
is f
or c
laim
s of
‘his
tori
cal
occu
pat
ion’
of t
he
isla
nd.
The
Cou
rt a
lso
fou
nd
th
at t
his
so-
call
ed ‘
occu
pat
ion
’ of
th
e is
lan
d b
y N
amib
ian
res
iden
ts,
was
un
der
tak
en w
ith
th
e fu
ll k
now
led
ge a
nd
acc
epta
nce
of
the
Bot
swan
a
auth
orit
ies
and i
ts p
redec
esso
rs (
ICJ
1999).
Th
e f
inal
Cou
rt r
uli
ng w
as
giv
en
in
favou
r of
Bots
wan
a,
wit
h t
he
ICJ
ind
icati
ng t
hat
the n
ort
hern
ch
an
nel
aro
un
d S
ed
ud
u/K
asi
kil
i Is
lan
d
wou
ld h
ence
fort
h b
e co
nsi
der
ed a
s th
e ‘m
ain
’ ch
ann
el o
f th
e C
hob
e R
iver
.
Acc
ord
ingl
y, t
he
form
al b
oun
dar
y b
etw
een
Nam
ibia
an
d B
otsw
ana
wou
ld
hen
cefo
rth b
e lo
cate
d i
n t
he
nor
ther
n c
han
nel
of
the
Chob
e R
iver
. B
otsw
ana
and N
amib
ia h
ave
agre
ed t
hat
cra
ft f
rom
bot
h c
ountr
ies
wil
l be
allo
wed
unim
-
ped
ed
n
avig
ati
on
in
b
oth
th
e n
ort
hern
an
d so
uth
ern
ch
an
nels
aro
un
d
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd (
ICJ
1999).
Th
e IC
J ru
lin
g is
very
w
elc
om
e aft
er
a re
lati
vely
lo
ng p
eri
od
of
pro
tracte
d d
eb
ate
an
d i
nte
rmit
ten
t th
reats
of
mil
itary
acti
on
, in
clu
din
g
form
al m
ilit
ary
occu
pat
ion
of
the
isla
nd
by
the
Bot
swan
a D
efen
ce F
orce
.
The
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili Is
land d
ispute
pro
vides
an e
xcel
lent ex
ample
of a
wat
er-
base
d c
on
flic
t si
tuati
on
th
at
reach
ed
a h
igh
level
of
ten
sion
, p
reven
tin
g
reso
luti
on
of
the p
rob
lem
b
y th
e d
isp
uti
ng p
art
ies,
th
us
req
uir
ing an
87
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
ind
epen
den
t th
ird
par
ty (
the
ICJ)
to
be
call
ed i
n t
o ar
bit
rate
th
e d
isp
ute
.
How
ever
, it
is
impor
tant
for
us
to n
ote
that
, li
ke
all
other
riv
ers,
the
Chob
e
Riv
er i
s a
dyn
amic
sys
tem
wher
e th
e sh
ape
and p
osit
ion o
f it
s ch
annel
s w
ill
chan
ge o
ver
tim
e. N
atu
ral
pro
cess
es o
f se
dim
ent
dep
osit
ion
an
d e
rosi
on
wil
l co
nti
nu
e to
occ
ur,
eac
h d
epen
din
g on
th
e fl
ow p
atte
rns
in t
he
rive
r.
Con
sequen
tly,
it
is i
nev
itab
le t
hat
the
Chob
e R
iver
wil
l co
nti
nue
to g
radual
ly
alte
r th
e pos
itio
n a
nd c
onfi
gura
tion
of
its
mai
n c
han
nel
in t
he
futu
re.
Futu
re
chan
ges
in the
pos
itio
n o
r sh
ape
of the
mai
n c
han
nel
cou
ld p
ossi
bly
bec
ome
a
sourc
e of
futu
re d
ispute
bet
wee
n t
he
two
countr
ies.
In t
his
exa
mple
, th
e pri
mar
y dis
pute
bet
wee
n t
he
two
countr
ies
is o
ne
of
terr
itor
ial
sove
reig
nty
, ra
ther
than
one
of a
cces
s to
wat
er o
r w
ater
-dep
enden
t
reso
urc
es.
How
ever
, w
ater
is
the
ph
ysic
al d
rivi
ng
forc
e fo
r ch
ange
s to
th
e
aquat
ic s
yste
m t
hat
for
ms
the
terr
itor
ial
bou
ndar
y. U
nle
ss t
hes
e tw
o co
untr
ies
join
tly
dev
elop
a f
orm
al p
roto
col
to a
dd
ress
th
is t
ype
of s
itu
atio
n,
sim
ilar
case
s of
‘wat
er-r
elat
ed c
onfl
ict’ a
re e
xpec
ted t
o oc
cur
in f
utu
re.
Th
ere
are
sti
ll f
ive i
slan
ds
in t
he C
ap
rivi
secto
r w
hose
terr
itori
al
sove
reig
nty
or
‘ow
ner
ship
’ is
con
test
ed;
thre
e of
th
ese
isla
nd
s ar
e in
th
e
Chob
e R
iver
and t
wo
are
in t
he
Zam
bez
i R
iver
(F
igure
3).
Wit
hou
t w
ishin
g to
pre
-em
pt
any
opti
ons
that
may
be
consi
der
ed b
y th
e co
untr
ies
conce
rned
, w
e
can a
nti
cipat
e th
at the
lega
l pri
nci
ple
s upon
whic
h a
ny
dec
isio
n w
ill be
bas
ed
are
likel
y to
fol
low
the
sam
e pri
nci
ple
s an
d l
ogic
use
d t
o re
solv
e th
e dis
pute
over
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd.
Dis
pute
d t
err
itori
al and o
ther
ancilla
ry (
wate
r-re
late
d)
rights
alo
ng t
he low
er
Ora
nge R
iver
(Nam
ibia
and S
outh
Afr
ica)
The
dis
pute
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd S
outh
Afr
ica
over
the
low
er r
each
es o
f th
e
Ora
nge
Riv
er (
Fig
ure
5)
has
man
y si
mil
ar e
lem
ents
to
the
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd
dis
pu
te b
etw
een
Nam
ibia
an
d B
otsw
ana.
On
ce a
gain
, th
e p
rim
ary
issu
e is
ter
rito
rial
sov
erei
gnty
lin
ked
to
the
pre
cise
pos
itio
n o
f an
in
tern
a-
tion
al b
oun
dar
y, t
oget
her
wit
h t
he
his
tori
cal
‘tra
ject
ory’
th
at t
he
bou
nd
ary
dis
pute
has
fol
low
ed.
How
ever
, th
ere
are
seve
ral
addit
ional
pro
ble
ms
that
cen
tre
on a
cces
s to
,
or o
wner
ship
of,
res
ourc
es d
eriv
ed f
rom
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er.
Thes
e ar
e fu
rther
con
fou
nd
ed b
y th
e fa
ct t
hat
th
e p
osit
ion
of
the
mar
ine
offs
hor
e te
rrit
oria
l
bou
nd
ary
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd
Sou
th A
fric
a is
dep
end
ent
on t
he
pre
cise
pos
itio
n o
f th
e la
nd
-bas
ed b
oun
dar
y at
th
e ri
ver
mou
th.
Th
e O
ran
ge R
iver
un
der
goes
reg
ula
r fl
ow c
ycle
s, w
her
e th
e ri
ver
mou
th f
irst
ten
ds
to s
ilt
up
duri
ng
low
flo
ws,
and i
s th
en l
ater
open
ed w
hen
flo
ods
arri
ve.
In t
he
pro
cess
,
86
Pete
r A
shto
n
the
pre
cise
loc
atio
n o
f th
e ri
ver
mou
th c
an c
han
ge b
y up t
o tw
o kil
omet
res
in
resp
onse
to
the
tim
ing
or s
ize
of b
oth l
arge
and s
mal
l fl
ood e
vents
. C
lear
ly,
such
a s
ituat
ion c
an p
ose
enor
mou
s pro
ble
ms
for
offi
cial
s ta
sked
wit
h d
emar
-
cati
ng
nat
ional
bou
ndar
ies.
Dec
idin
g th
e pos
itio
ns
of p
rosp
ecti
ng
leas
es f
or
the
explo
itat
ion o
f of
fshor
e m
iner
als
such
as
oil,
gas
and d
iam
onds,
can
als
o
be
ham
per
ed, as
wel
l as
del
imit
ing
the
catc
h a
reas
of
com
mer
cial
fis
her
ies.
Addit
ional
com
pli
cati
ng
fact
ors
are
pro
vided
by
the
pre
sence
of
impor
-
tant
min
eral
dep
osit
s in
the
pre
sent
bed
of
the
rive
r an
d i
n a
lluvi
al t
erra
ces
mar
kin
g ea
rlie
r pos
itio
ns
of t
he
rive
r bed
, to
geth
er w
ith t
he
trad
itio
nal
use
of
isla
nd
s in
th
e ri
ver
as g
razi
ng
grou
nd
s fo
r st
ock
ow
ned
by
loca
l re
sid
ents
.
Sin
ce t
he
dis
cove
ry o
f d
iam
ond
s at
aro
un
d t
he
beg
inn
ing
of t
he
twen
tiet
h
centu
ry, la
rge
quan
titi
es o
f dia
mon
ds
hav
e bee
n r
ecov
ered
fro
m m
inin
g le
ases
loca
ted o
n a
lluvi
al d
epos
its
in t
he
pre
sent
bed
of
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er, as
wel
l as
on g
rave
l te
rrac
es m
ark
ing
form
er p
osit
ion
s of
th
e ri
verb
ed.
Th
is s
itu
atio
n
was
con
sider
ed t
o be
‘man
agea
ble
’ bec
ause
the
bou
nd
ary
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia
and S
outh
Afr
ica
had
bee
n s
et b
y ea
rlie
r co
lonia
l ad
min
istr
atio
ns
as t
he
hig
h
wat
er m
ark
on
th
e n
orth
(N
amib
ian
) b
ank
of
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er.
In e
ffec
t,
Fig
ure 5
. Sketc
h m
ap s
how
ing t
he low
er r
eaches
of
the O
range
Riv
er t
hat
form
s N
am
ibia
’s s
outh
ern b
oundary w
ith S
outh
Afr
ica,
togeth
er w
ith t
he locati
ons
of
tow
ns
and t
he A
tlanti
c O
cean
coast
line.
Cir
cle
s in
dic
ate
the a
pproxim
ate
posi
tions
of
isla
nds
in t
he O
range R
iver,
where g
razin
g r
ights
are n
ow
conte
sted.
The s
cale
of
uncerta
inty
around t
he p
recis
e locati
on o
f th
e
off
shore (
marin
e)
boundary b
etw
een N
am
ibia
and S
outh
Afr
ica
is a
lso s
how
n
89
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
ther
efor
e, t
he
enti
re O
range
Riv
er f
orm
ed p
art
of t
he
terr
itor
y of
Sou
th A
fric
a.
Th
e lo
wer
rea
ches
of
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er f
low
th
rou
gh a
reg
ion
th
at i
s
pre
dom
inan
tly
des
ert or
sem
i-des
ert,
and for
m a
535 k
m lon
g li
nea
r oa
sis
that
also
dem
arca
tes
the
bou
ndar
y bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd S
outh
Afr
ica
(Fig
ure
5).
Ver
y fe
w r
esid
ents
occ
upy
the
extr
emel
y ar
id c
ountr
y to
the
nor
th a
nd s
outh
of
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er. T
hos
e w
ho
do
man
age
to l
ive
in t
his
rel
ativ
ely
inhos
pit
able
area
are
pre
dom
inan
tly
nom
adic
pas
tora
list
s, w
ho
rely
hea
vily
on
sea
son
al
gra
zin
g a
reas
alo
ng t
he r
iverb
an
ks
an
d o
n i
slan
ds
locate
d i
n t
he r
iver.
Exp
andin
g m
inin
g ac
tivi
ties
and t
he
dev
elop
men
t of
ass
ocia
ted i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
in t
his
reg
ion h
ave
led t
o dra
mat
ic c
han
ges
in t
he
life
styl
es o
f lo
cal
resi
den
ts.
Th
e or
igin
al c
olon
ial
pow
ers
(Ger
man
y an
d G
reat
Bri
tain
) w
ere
nev
er
able
to
reac
h a
gree
men
t as
to
the
pre
cise
loc
atio
n o
f th
e te
rrit
oria
l bou
ndar
y
bet
wee
n t
he
two
cou
ntr
ies
(Han
gula
19
93
). G
reat
Bri
tain
in
sist
ed t
hat
th
e
bou
ndar
y sh
ould
be
form
ed b
y th
e ‘h
igh w
ater
lev
el o
f th
e nor
th (
Nam
ibia
n)
ban
k’, w
hil
st G
erm
any
(nat
ura
lly)
pre
ferr
ed t
he
bou
ndar
y to
be
loca
ted ‘i
n t
he
cen
tre o
f th
e m
ain
riv
er
ch
an
nel’
. T
his
bou
nd
ary
dis
pu
te p
ers
iste
d f
or
dec
ades
, d
esp
ite
rep
eate
d a
ttem
pts
by
bot
h o
f th
e or
igin
al c
olon
ial
pow
ers
and
, b
y th
e S
outh
Afr
ican
Gov
ern
men
t si
nce
19
10
, to
rea
ch a
n a
gree
men
t
(Han
gula
1993).
Loc
al r
esid
ents
on b
oth s
ides
of
the
rive
r co
nti
nued
to
exer
-
cise
tra
dit
ional
gra
zing
righ
ts a
nd S
outh
Afr
ican
min
ers
conti
nued
to
explo
it
allu
vial
dia
mon
d d
epos
its
in t
he
rive
rbed
. It
was
only
in 1
991,
shor
tly
afte
r
Nam
ibia
n i
ndep
enden
ce,
that
Sou
th A
fric
a ag
reed
to
alte
r th
e pos
itio
n o
f th
e
bou
ndar
y fr
om t
he
nor
th b
ank t
o th
e ce
ntr
e of
the
mai
n r
iver
chan
nel
, to
a
posi
tion
overl
yin
g th
e T
ha
lweg
. B
oth
govern
men
ts ap
poin
ted
te
am
s of
spec
iali
sts
to d
efin
e th
e pre
cise
pos
itio
n o
f th
e bou
ndar
y li
ne
alon
g th
e ri
ver
bed
(H
angu
la 1
993).
This
dec
isio
n f
ollo
ws
the
gener
al p
rinci
ple
s of
Inte
rnat
ional
Law
whic
h
gove
rn t
he
pos
itio
n o
f in
tern
atio
nal
bou
ndar
ies
loca
ted a
long
rive
r sy
stem
s.
Furt
her
mor
e, t
he
dec
isio
n h
as a
llow
ed N
amib
ia t
o cl
aim
its
fai
r sh
are
of t
he
reso
urc
es (
wat
er,
min
eral
s, l
and)
pro
vided
by,
or
linked
to,
the
Ora
nge
Riv
er.
How
ever
, th
e dec
isio
n h
as a
lso
resu
lted
in c
onsi
der
able
con
fusi
on a
s to
the
vali
dit
y of
exi
stin
g al
luvi
al m
inin
g le
ases
in
th
e b
ed o
f th
e ri
ver,
an
d h
as
den
ied s
ome
loca
l (S
outh
Afr
ican
) re
siden
ts t
he
righ
t to
gra
ze t
hei
r li
vest
ock
on
isl
an
ds
that
now
form
part
of
Nam
ibia
n t
err
itory
. T
hese
facets
of
the
dis
pute
wil
l nee
d t
o be
reso
lved
fai
rly
and s
pee
dil
y if
the
pro
ble
m i
s not
to
bec
ome
a li
nge
ring
adm
inis
trat
ive
nig
htm
are.
Sim
ilar
ly, it
wil
l be
esse
nti
al for
the
gove
rnm
ents
of
bot
h c
ountr
ies
to r
each
con
sensu
s as
to
the
geog
raphic
al
pos
itio
n o
f th
e O
range
Riv
er m
outh
, so
that
a m
utu
ally
acc
epta
ble
pos
itio
n f
or
88
Pete
r A
shto
n
the
offs
hor
e m
arin
e bou
ndar
y ca
n b
e dem
arca
ted. T
he
rati
onal
exp
loit
atio
n o
f
impor
tant
offs
hor
e dep
osit
s of
oil
, ga
s an
d d
iam
onds,
as
wel
l as
the
impor
tant
pel
agic
and b
enth
ic f
ishin
g gr
ounds,
wil
l dep
end o
n t
he
succ
essf
ul
outc
ome
of t
hes
e neg
otia
tion
s.
In t
his
exa
mple
, th
e pri
mar
y dis
pute
bet
wee
n t
he
two
countr
ies
is a
gain
one
of t
erri
tori
al s
over
eign
ty,
thou
gh i
t al
so i
ncl
ud
es a
spec
ts t
hat
con
cern
acce
ss t
o w
ater
, or
res
ourc
es l
ocat
ed w
ithin
or
nex
t to
a w
ater
way
. Y
et a
gain
,
wat
er i
s a
phys
ical
dri
ving
forc
e fo
r ch
ange
(par
ticu
larl
y re
gard
ing
the
mou
th
of t
he
Ora
nge
Riv
er).
Th
is c
han
ge i
nfl
uen
ces
the
pos
itio
n o
f th
e te
rrit
oria
l
bou
nd
ary
. B
oth
cou
ntr
ies
mu
st n
ow
join
tly d
evelo
p a
form
al
pro
tocol
to
ad
dre
ss t
his
sp
ecif
ic s
itu
ati
on
, so
as
to p
reven
t p
rolo
ngin
g t
he p
rese
nt
unce
rtai
nti
es.
Are w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
inevit
able
?
In t
he
pre
cedin
g dis
cuss
ion w
e hav
e se
en t
he
deg
ree
of i
nfl
uen
ce e
xert
ed b
y
curr
ent
geog
rap
hic
al a
nd
geo
-pol
itic
al r
eali
ties
– t
oget
her
wit
h p
reva
ilin
g
soci
al a
nd
eco
nom
ic t
ren
ds
– i
n p
rovi
din
g co
nd
itio
ns
that
pro
mot
e w
ater
-
bas
ed c
onfl
icts
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a. W
e hav
e al
so s
een h
ow n
atura
l pat
tern
s of
chan
ge i
n a
qu
atic
sys
tem
s ca
n l
ead
to
con
flic
t, o
r ca
n a
ccen
tuat
e ex
isti
ng
confl
ict
situ
atio
ns.
We
shou
ld n
ow s
eek a
nsw
ers
to t
he
ques
tion
: ‘A
re a
ll o
r
som
e of
thes
e pot
enti
al w
ater
con
flic
ts i
nev
itab
le?’
Giv
en t
he
evid
ence
pre
sente
d e
arli
er,
the
sim
ple
st d
irec
t an
swer
is
an
un
equ
ivoc
al ‘
Yes
’. H
owev
er,
this
an
swer
dep
end
s on
sev
eral
fac
tors
wh
ich
wil
l be
expan
ded
on i
n t
he
nex
t se
ctio
n o
f th
is p
aper
. Sim
ply
put,
and w
ithou
t
bei
ng
pes
sim
isti
c, w
ater
con
flic
ts a
re i
nev
itab
le i
f w
e co
nti
nue
to d
o not
hin
g
to p
reve
nt
them
fro
m o
ccurr
ing.
Whil
st t
his
res
pon
se m
ay a
ppea
r to
be
rath
er
sim
pli
stic
, on
e m
ust
rem
ember
the
fact
that
the
finit
e fr
esh w
ater
res
ourc
es
avai
lab
le i
n t
he
sub
-con
tin
ent
can
not
con
tin
ue
ind
efin
itel
y to
su
pp
ort
the
esca
lati
ng
dem
and
s th
at w
e m
ake
of t
hem
. C
omp
etit
ion
for
th
e av
aila
ble
wat
er s
uppli
es w
ill
conti
nue
to i
ncr
ease
to
a poi
nt
wher
e ra
dic
al i
nte
rven
tion
s
are
requir
ed.
In a
ddit
ion,
wat
er c
onfl
icts
lin
ked
to
the
pos
itio
ns
of i
nte
rna-
tion
al b
order
s w
ill
stil
l oc
cur
in t
hos
e pla
ces
wher
e th
e co
untr
ies
conce
rned
hav
e not
yet
rea
ched
joi
nt
agre
emen
ts.
Wh
ilst
wat
er i
s ve
ry u
nli
kel
y to
be
the
dir
ect
casu
s be
lli
of a
war
in
south
ern A
fric
a (v
an W
yk 1
998;
Turt
on 2
000),
it
is v
ery
likel
y th
at w
ater
wil
l
bec
ome
a co
ntr
ibu
tin
g fa
ctor
to
regi
onal
in
stab
ilit
y, a
s d
eman
ds
for
wat
er
91
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
appro
ach t
he
lim
its
of t
he
avai
lable
suppli
es.
Inev
itab
ly,
wat
er c
onfl
icts
wil
l
firs
t oc
cur
in t
hos
e ar
eas
wher
e w
ater
is
in s
hor
test
supply
; th
ese
wil
l th
en
tend t
o sp
read
furt
her
afi
eld,
as m
ore
and m
ore
of t
he
scar
ce w
ater
res
ourc
es
are
use
d d
irec
tly
or t
ransf
erre
d f
urt
her
afi
eld t
o m
eet
risi
ng
dem
ands.
In a
ll l
ikel
ihoo
d,
any
adve
rse
effe
cts
asso
ciat
ed w
ith
pos
sib
le g
lob
al
clim
ate
chan
ges,
such
as
dec
reas
ed r
ainfa
lls
or i
ncr
ease
d t
emper
ature
s, w
ill
exac
erb
ate
the
situ
atio
n.
In t
his
con
text
, it
is
imp
orta
nt
to u
nd
erst
and
th
at
thes
e re
mar
ks
refe
r pri
nci
pal
ly t
o th
e ‘m
inor
’, s
mal
ler-
scal
e fo
rms
of w
ater
-
bas
ed c
onfl
icts
, w
her
e fe
w i
nd
ivid
ual
s or
rel
ativ
ely
smal
l sp
atia
l ar
eas
are
invo
lved
. In
the
case
of
mor
e ‘e
xtre
me’
for
ms
of c
onfl
ict
– s
uch
as
inte
rper
-
son
al
dis
pu
tes
resu
ltin
g i
n t
he d
eath
of
ind
ivid
uals
, or
wh
ere
mil
itary
inte
rven
tion
esc
ala
tes
to t
he p
oin
t w
here
war
is d
ecla
red
betw
een
tw
o
com
pet
ing
countr
ies
– t
hey
are
unli
kel
y to
occ
ur
as a
dir
ect
or i
ndir
ect
resu
lt
of w
ater
. If
war
was
dec
lare
d i
n s
uch
cir
cum
stan
ces,
wat
er w
ould
pro
bab
ly
rem
ain
a c
ontr
ibu
tin
g or
su
bsi
dia
ry i
ssu
e, r
ath
er t
han
th
e m
ain
cau
se o
r
‘dri
vin
g f
orc
e’
of
the w
ar.
Nevert
hele
ss,
each
cou
ntr
y i
n s
ou
thern
Afr
ica
rem
ains
conce
rned
abou
t is
sues
of
terr
itor
ial
sove
reig
nty
and r
esou
rce
secu
-
rity
. T
his
is
refl
ecte
d i
n t
he
rece
nt
retu
rn o
f w
ater
to
stat
e co
ntr
ol, as
oppos
ed
to o
wner
ship
by
indiv
idual
s (A
smal
1998;
Rep
ubli
c of
Sou
th A
fric
a 1998).
How
ever
, w
hil
st t
his
tre
nd
may
ref
lect
th
e gr
owin
g st
ren
gth
of
ind
ivid
ual
nati
on
al
govern
men
ts,
the s
am
e c
an
not
be s
aid
for
regio
nal
inst
itu
tion
al
stru
cture
s. F
or e
xam
ple
, th
e SA
DC
was
unab
le t
o re
solv
e th
e Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd
dis
pu
te b
etw
een
Nam
ibia
an
d B
otsw
ana,
des
pit
e sp
ecif
ic p
rovi
sion
s
for
dis
pute
res
oluti
on c
onta
ined
wit
hin
the
SA
DC
Pro
toco
l on
Shar
ed R
iver
Sys
tem
s (S
AD
C 1
995; va
n W
yk 1
998).
In t
he
ligh
t of
thes
e ob
serv
atio
ns,
we
now
nee
d t
o co
nsi
der
som
e of
the
pot
enti
al p
reve
nti
ve a
ppro
aches
ava
ilab
le t
o us,
so
we
can p
roper
ly f
orm
ula
te
and i
mple
men
t su
itab
le p
olic
ies,
str
ateg
ies
and a
ctio
ns
to a
void
the
pro
spec
t
of w
ater
-bas
ed c
onfl
icts
, an
d t
hei
r co
nse
quen
ces,
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a.
Poss
ible
preventi
ve m
easu
res
We
are
all
awar
e of
the
old a
dag
e th
at ‘
pre
venti
on i
s bet
ter
than
cure
’. T
his
com
mon
sen
se s
tate
men
t pro
vides
us
wit
h a
per
fect
outl
ine
of t
he
goal
s an
d
ob
jecti
ves
that
shou
ld d
irect
ou
r acti
on
s w
hen
we s
eek
to d
eal
wit
h t
he
com
ple
x i
ssu
es
of
wate
r-re
late
d c
on
flic
ts.
How
ever,
desp
ite i
ts a
pp
are
nt
sim
pli
city
, it
see
ms
that
this
idea
l of
ten e
ludes
us
in p
ract
ice.
A l
arge
par
t of
90
Pete
r A
shto
n
the
reas
on f
or t
his
lie
s in
the
div
erse
, an
d o
ften
con
trad
icto
ry,
way
s in
whic
h
we
atta
ch v
alue
to w
ater
, an
d t
he
way
s in
whic
h w
e st
rive
to
der
ive
bot
h i
ndi-
vid
ual
an
d c
olle
ctiv
e b
enef
it f
rom
ou
r u
se o
f th
e re
sou
rce.
Too
oft
en o
ur
obje
ctiv
es h
ave
a sh
ort-
term
foc
us
aim
ed a
t m
eeti
ng
obje
ctiv
es a
nd s
olvi
ng
pro
ble
ms
today
, ra
ther
than
a l
onge
r-te
rm g
oal
focu
ssin
g on
the
sust
ainab
le
and e
quit
able
use
of
our
wat
er r
esou
rces
.
Cle
arly
, if
our
dem
ands
for
wat
er o
uts
trip
our
abil
ity
to m
anag
e w
ater
as
a fo
cus
for
coop
erat
ion a
nd t
he
achie
vem
ent
of c
omm
on g
oals
, w
e ru
n t
he
risk
of e
nte
ring
an e
ver-
tigh
tenin
g sp
iral
of
pov
erty
— t
he
soci
al,
econ
omic
and
envi
ronm
enta
l co
nse
quen
ces
of w
hic
h w
ill
thre
aten
the
fabri
c of
soc
iety
. In
contr
ast,
if
we
are
able
to
atta
in a
n e
quit
able
bal
ance
bet
wee
n t
he
dem
ands
we
mak
e fo
r th
e se
rvic
es a
nd g
oods
that
we
der
ive
from
the
use
of
wat
er,
and
our
abil
ity
to e
xerc
ise
our
cust
odia
nsh
ip o
f w
ater
, w
e w
ill
be
able
to
achie
ve a
far
mor
e har
mon
ious
and s
ust
ainab
le s
ituat
ion.
The
seco
nd o
f th
e tw
o vi
sion
s
ou
tlin
ed
ab
ove,
is c
learl
y o
ne t
hat
shou
ld h
ave a
far
gre
ate
r ap
peal
to
wid
er s
ocie
ty.
How
ever
, in
ord
er f
or u
s to
ach
ieve
this
, al
l ou
r pol
icie
s an
d
acti
ons
con
cern
ing
wat
er m
ust
be
guid
ed b
y th
e va
lues
of
sust
ain
abil
ity,
equit
y, m
utu
al c
ooper
atio
n,
and t
he
atta
inm
ent
of o
pti
mal
ben
efit
for
soc
iety
(Asm
al 1
998).
Wit
hin
this
phil
osop
hic
al f
ram
ewor
k b
ased
on t
he
conce
pts
of
sust
ain-
abil
ity,
we
can n
ow b
rief
ly o
utl
ine
four
of t
he
mos
t ap
pro
pri
ate
appro
aches
for
pre
ven
tin
g w
ate
r con
flic
ts a
nd
, in
th
ose
sit
uati
on
s w
here
con
flic
ts h
ave
alre
ady
occu
rred
, ap
pro
aches
that
can
hel
p t
o re
solv
e th
ese
confl
icts
bef
ore
they
esc
alat
e to
unm
anag
eable
lev
els.
Wate
r r
eso
urce m
anagem
ent
on a
whole
-catc
hm
ent
basi
s
Mod
ern
ap
pro
ach
es t
o w
ater
res
ourc
e m
anag
emen
t re
cogn
ise
that
wat
er
reso
urc
es c
an o
nly
be
man
aged
eff
ecti
vely
and e
ffic
ientl
y w
hen
the
enti
re r
iver
bas
in o
r ca
tchm
ent
form
s th
e bas
ic m
anag
emen
t unit
. F
urt
her
mor
e, b
ecau
se
surf
ace
wat
er a
nd
gro
un
d w
ater
are
in
extr
icab
ly i
nte
rlin
ked
, th
ey m
ust
be
consi
der
ed a
nd m
anag
ed t
oget
her
as
a si
ngl
e re
sourc
e. T
hes
e pri
nci
ple
s fo
rm
the
foundat
ion f
or i
nte
grat
ed c
atch
men
t m
anag
emen
t (I
CM
), a
nd a
re r
apid
ly
gain
ing
wid
er a
ccep
tance
thro
ugh
out
the
wor
ld (
Ash
ton &
Mac
Kay
1996).
Most
sou
thern
Afr
ican
cou
ntr
ies
have r
ecogn
ised
th
e f
un
dam
en
tal
impor
tance
of
catc
hm
ent
man
agem
ent,
and h
ave
alre
ady
dra
wn u
p p
olic
ies,
imp
lem
en
ted
th
e r
eq
uir
ed
legis
lati
on
, an
d i
nit
iate
d a
seri
es
of
acti
on
s
des
igned
to
achie
ve t
his
obje
ctiv
e (A
smal
1998).
Wh
ilst
it
wil
l st
ill
take
som
e
tim
e fo
r th
e fu
ll b
enef
its
of t
hes
e ac
tivi
ties
to
be
real
ised
, a
pro
mis
ing
star
t
93
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
has
bee
n m
ade.
Th
e ca
ses
of w
ater
res
ourc
e m
anag
emen
t in
riv
er b
asin
s
whic
h a
re s
har
ed b
y m
ore
than
one
countr
y, a
nd t
he
issu
e of
wat
er t
ransf
ers
betw
een
riv
er
basi
ns
wit
hin
th
e s
am
e c
ou
ntr
y o
r b
etw
een
neig
hb
ou
rin
g
countr
ies,
sti
ll r
equir
e ad
dit
ional
att
enti
on.
The
thor
ny
issu
e of
riv
er b
asin
s sh
ared
by
mor
e th
an o
ne
countr
y has
bee
n c
entr
al t
o m
any
wat
er-r
elat
ed c
onfl
icts
whic
h h
ave
occu
rred
in s
outh
ern
Afr
ica.
Par
t of
th
e p
rob
lem
rel
ates
to
the
exis
ten
ce o
f d
iffe
ren
t p
olit
ical
,
econ
omic
, an
d s
ocia
l st
ruct
ure
s w
ithin
eac
h c
ountr
y; a
not
her
com
pon
ent
of
the
pro
ble
m r
elat
es t
o d
iffe
ren
ces
in t
he
lega
l an
d l
egis
lati
ve s
yste
ms
of
dif
fere
nt co
untr
ies.
Im
por
tantl
y, a
cri
tica
l as
pec
t of
the
pro
ble
m a
lso
rela
tes
to
the
rela
tive
eco
nom
ic a
nd p
olit
ical
‘str
engt
hs’
of ea
ch s
tate
. N
ever
thel
ess,
it is
inev
itab
le t
hat
all
cou
ntr
ies
wh
ich
sh
are
a si
ngl
e ri
ver
bas
in w
ill
hav
e to
join
tly
dec
ide
on a
ppro
pri
ate
man
agem
ent go
als,
as
wel
l as
an e
quit
able
bas
is
for
allo
cati
ng
wat
er t
o m
eet
the
nee
ds
of e
ach r
ipar
ian s
tate
. C
lear
ly,
it w
ill
then
be
the
resp
onsi
bil
ity
of the
indiv
idual
rip
aria
n s
tate
s to
com
munic
ate
the
con
dit
ion
s of
such
an
agre
em
en
t to
all
th
eir
cit
izen
s an
d w
ate
r re
sou
rce
man
ager
s. I
f th
is c
an b
e ac
hie
ved a
t an
ear
ly s
tage
, th
en t
he
join
t ag
reem
ent
wil
l pro
vide
consi
der
able
ass
ista
nce
in p
reve
nti
ng
or a
void
ing
wat
er-r
elat
ed
confl
icts
. F
ailu
re t
o ac
hie
ve t
his
wil
l pro
long
any
exis
ting
confl
icts
, an
d w
ill
cre
ate
con
dit
ion
s th
at
cou
ld f
avou
r or
pro
mote
th
e w
ate
r ‘r
igh
ts’
of
on
e
countr
y ov
er a
not
her
.
In i
ts i
dea
l fo
rm,
catc
hm
ent
man
agem
ent
pro
vid
es b
oth
a g
uid
ing
ph
ilos
oph
y an
d a
pra
ctic
al f
ram
ewor
k f
or a
ctio
n w
hic
h,
in t
urn
, p
rom
otes
coop
erat
ive
dec
isio
n-m
akin
g an
d r
espon
sible
man
agem
ent of
wat
er r
esou
rces
.
A b
asic
ten
et o
f ca
tchm
ent
man
agem
ent
is t
he
pri
nci
ple
that
all
wat
er u
sers
wit
hin
a c
atch
men
t m
ust
tak
e re
spon
sib
ilit
y fo
r d
eter
min
ing
the
shor
t-,
med
ium
- an
d l
ong-
term
ob
ject
ives
of
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
agem
ent,
wh
ilst
ensu
ring
that
wat
er a
lloc
atio
n i
s bot
h e
quit
able
and f
air
(Asm
al 1
998).
Con
seq
uen
tly,
wat
er t
ran
sfer
s an
d l
ink
ages
wit
hin
a c
atch
men
t an
d,
wher
e nec
essa
ry,
bet
wee
n n
eigh
bou
ring
catc
hm
ents
, ar
e gu
ided
by
the
dec
i-
sion
s m
ade
by
all st
akeh
older
s (B
asso
n e
t al
1997).
Cle
arly
, th
is r
epre
sents
an
idea
l th
at m
ay n
ot y
et b
e at
tain
able
bec
ause
of
a va
riet
y of
pro
ble
ms.
Per
hap
s
the
mos
t im
por
tant
of t
hes
e ar
e: i
nef
fect
ive
or n
on-e
xist
ent
wat
er l
egis
lati
on,
inap
pro
pri
ate
inst
ituti
onal
str
uct
ure
s, a
lac
k o
f su
itab
le i
nfo
rmat
ion a
nd t
hus
an a
bse
nce
of
emp
ower
men
t am
ongs
t st
akeh
old
ers,
an
d f
inal
ly,
a la
ck o
f
under
stan
din
g of
ava
ilab
le p
arti
cipat
ory
appro
aches
for
obta
inin
g co
nse
nsu
s
and r
esol
ving
dis
pute
s. E
ach o
f th
ese
aspec
ts h
old o
ppor
tunit
ies
that
can
hel
p
us
pre
vent
or r
esol
ve w
ater
con
flic
ts. T
hey
are
des
crib
ed b
rief
ly b
elow
.
92
Pete
r A
shto
n
Legal and legis
lati
ve p
rin
cip
les
Eac
h s
outh
ern
Afr
ican
cou
ntr
y h
as l
egis
lati
ve f
ram
ewor
ks
and
law
s w
hic
h
guid
e an
d c
ontr
ol t
he
dev
elop
men
t an
d m
anag
emen
t of
soc
iety
. M
any
of t
hes
e
pol
icie
s an
d l
aws
hav
e bee
n i
nher
ited
fro
m p
revi
ous
colo
nia
l ad
min
istr
atio
ns,
wher
e a
form
of
centr
alis
ed c
omm
and a
nd c
ontr
ol o
f key
res
ourc
es (
such
as
wat
er)
was
of
grea
t im
por
tance
. F
or t
he
purp
oses
of
our
dis
cuss
ion,
the
mos
t
imp
orta
nt
item
s of
leg
isla
tion
in
eac
h c
oun
try
are
the
law
s re
lati
ng
to t
he
pro
tect
ion
, d
evel
opm
ent,
con
trol
, u
se,
and
man
agem
ent
of w
ater
res
ourc
es.
Man
y of
thes
e so
uth
ern A
fric
an ‘
wat
er l
aws’
hav
e bee
n m
odif
ied f
rom
thei
r
orig
inal
(co
lonia
l) f
orm
and n
ow s
har
e se
vera
l co
mm
on f
eatu
res.
Par
ticu
larl
y
impor
tant
are
thos
e as
pec
ts o
f th
ese
law
s th
at r
ecog
nis
e w
ater
as
a co
mm
on
good
, d
enot
e ea
ch s
tate
as
hav
ing
a cu
stod
ial
resp
onsi
bil
ity
for
wat
er,
and
rep
lace p
revio
us
situ
ati
on
s of
wate
r ‘o
wn
ers
hip
’ b
y i
nd
ivid
uals
wit
h a
com
mon
‘rig
ht
to t
he
fair
and e
quit
able
use
of
wat
er’.
Wh
ilst
som
e of
th
e p
rin
cip
les
con
tain
ed w
ith
in t
hes
e le
gal
syst
ems
repre
sent
a dra
mat
ic d
epar
ture
fro
m p
revi
ous
wat
er l
aw,
they
now
pro
vide
a
far
mor
e eq
uit
able
bas
is f
or w
ater
all
ocat
ion
an
d m
anag
emen
t (e
.g.
Asm
al
1998;
Rep
ubli
c of
Sou
th A
fric
a 1998).
Ther
efor
e, w
hen
the
law
s ar
e ap
pli
ed
effe
ctiv
ely
by
des
ignat
ed o
ffic
ials
and a
gents
of
the
resp
ecti
ve g
over
nm
ents
,
the
nat
ional
wat
er l
egis
lati
on w
ithin
eac
h s
outh
ern
Afr
ican
cou
ntr
y pro
vides
ind
ivid
ual
s an
d c
omm
un
itie
s w
ith
an
ap
pro
pri
ate
lega
l fr
amew
ork
wit
hin
whic
h to
seek
suit
able
opti
ons
to p
reve
nt w
ater
-rel
ated
con
flic
ts a
nd d
ispute
s.
How
ever
, at
the
inte
rnat
ional
lev
el,
mat
ters
are
som
ewhat
les
s st
raig
ht-
forw
ard.
Inte
rnat
ional
wat
er l
aw i
s or
ganis
ed a
roun
d a
cor
e, c
ompri
sing
four
mai
n d
octr
ines
that
att
empt
to d
efin
e an
d d
elin
eate
the
righ
ts o
f ri
ver
bas
in
stat
es t
o use
wat
er f
rom
a s
har
ed r
iver
sys
tem
(P
alle
tt 1
997;
van W
yk 1
998).
Th
ese
pri
ncip
les
an
d l
aw
s h
ave e
volv
ed
at
dif
fere
nt
tim
es
an
d r
efl
ect
resp
onse
s to
th
e su
ites
of
dif
fere
nt
clai
ms
wh
ich
hav
e b
een
rec
eive
d f
rom
rip
aria
n s
tate
s. E
ach
of
the
fou
r d
octr
ines
ref
lect
dif
fere
nt
his
tori
cal
and
jud
icia
l ap
pro
ach
es t
o so
lvin
g th
e p
rob
lem
s ex
per
ien
ced
by
rip
aria
n s
tate
s
(IL
A 1
966; IL
C 1
994; va
n W
yk 1
998),
and a
lso
refl
ect an
im
por
tant ch
ange
in
emphas
is f
rom
the
righ
ts t
o ow
ner
ship
of
wat
er, to
one
whic
h s
triv
es t
o en
sure
that
the
inte
rest
s of
all
par
ties
are
met
equit
ably
. T
he
four
mai
n d
octr
ines
of
inte
rnat
ional
wat
er l
aw a
re b
rief
ly o
utl
ined
bel
ow.
•T
he
doc
trin
e of
abs
olute
ter
rito
rial
sove
reig
nty
Als
o know
n a
s th
e H
arm
on D
octr
ine,
this
con
sider
atio
n m
ainta
ins
that
the
por
tion
of
the
wat
er w
hic
h f
low
s th
rough
the
sove
reig
n t
erri
tory
of
a
rip
aria
n s
tate
is
sub
ject
to
the
excl
usi
ve s
over
eign
ty o
f th
at r
ipar
ian
95
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
stat
e. A
ppli
cati
on o
f th
is d
octr
ine
wit
hin
a s
har
ed r
iver
bas
in e
mpow
ers
an ‘u
pst
ream
’ cou
ntr
y to
use
or
mod
ify
all
of t
he
rive
r fl
ows
that
ori
ginat
e
in,
or f
low
th
rou
gh,
its
terr
itor
y, w
ith
out
con
sid
erat
ion
of
the
nee
ds
or
righ
ts o
f ‘d
ownst
ream
’ co
untr
ies.
Cle
arly
, th
e pri
nci
ple
s of
this
doc
trin
e
mu
st b
e re
gard
ed a
s b
ein
g in
app
rop
riat
e, a
nd
th
ey c
erta
inly
do
not
refl
ect th
e re
alit
ies
of inte
rnat
ional
law
or
whol
e ca
tchm
ent m
anag
emen
t.
•T
he
doc
trin
e of
abs
olute
ter
rito
rial
inte
gri
ty
The
pri
nci
ple
s of
this
doc
trin
e in
stru
ct r
ipar
ian s
tate
s not
to
inte
rfer
e
wit
h a
ny
por
tion
of
the
nat
ura
l fl
ow o
f a
rive
r w
hic
h p
asse
s th
rough
thei
r
terr
itor
y, if su
ch inte
rfer
ence
is
likel
y to
im
pac
t ad
vers
ely
on the
flow
s of
wat
er t
o a
‘dow
nst
ream
’ co
un
try.
In
ad
dit
ion
, ‘u
pst
ream
’ co
un
trie
s ar
e
not
to
inte
rfer
e w
ith
an
y p
rior
use
th
at t
he
‘dow
nst
ream
’ co
un
try
may
hav
e m
ade
of s
uch
flo
ws.
This
doc
trin
e has
par
ticu
lar
rele
vance
to
thos
e
case
s w
her
e a
‘dow
nst
ream
’ co
untr
y re
lies
hea
vily
on f
low
s or
igin
atin
g
in a
n ‘
upst
ream
’ co
untr
y. A
cla
ssic
al e
xam
ple
of
the
appli
cati
on o
f th
is
doc
trin
e is
ref
lect
ed i
n t
he
dem
ands
that
Egy
pt
mak
es o
f E
thio
pia
: th
at
Eth
iopia
shou
ld n
ot u
nder
take
any
wat
er d
evel
opm
ent
or u
se t
hat
wou
ld
red
uce
flo
ws
in t
he
low
er N
ile
Riv
er (
Sm
ith
& A
l-R
awah
y 1
99
0).
If
appli
ed, th
e pri
nci
ple
s of
this
doc
trin
e co
nfe
r an
enor
mou
s ad
vanta
ge o
n
‘dow
nst
ream
’ co
untr
ies
whic
h h
ave
alre
ady
‘dev
elop
ed’ th
eir
wat
er u
se.
How
ever
, th
e sa
me
app
lica
tion
wil
l si
mu
ltan
eou
sly
crip
ple
‘u
pst
ream
’
dev
elop
men
ts.
•T
he
doc
trin
e of
lim
ited
ter
rito
rial
sove
reig
nty
The
pri
nci
ple
s of
this
doc
trin
e as
sert
that
the
wat
er o
f an
inte
rnat
ional
rive
r ca
nnot
be
excl
usi
vely
appro
pri
ated
by
one
ripar
ian c
ountr
y; r
ather
,
all
ripar
ian s
tate
s m
ust
be
allo
wed
a r
easo
nab
le a
nd e
quit
able
lev
el o
f
uti
lisa
tion
of
an i
nte
rnat
ional
riv
er.
In p
ract
ice,
the
appli
cati
on o
f th
ese
pri
nci
ple
s ar
e co
nsi
der
ed t
o be
conte
nti
ous
(van
Wyk
1998),
sin
ce t
he
pri
nci
ple
s of
‘eq
uit
able
ap
por
tion
men
t’ h
ave
bee
n v
agu
ely
form
ula
ted
and n
o gu
idan
ce i
s gi
ven a
s to
det
erm
inin
g th
e hie
rarc
hy
of w
ater
use
rs
in a
shar
ed r
iver
.
•T
he
doc
trin
e of
com
munit
y in
tere
st
The
pri
nci
ple
s of
this
doc
trin
e at
tem
pt
to r
emed
y dra
wbac
ks
that
hav
e
occu
rred
wit
hin
th
e d
octr
ine
of l
imit
ed t
erri
tori
al s
over
eign
ty.
Th
is i
s
don
e th
rou
gh
exp
an
din
g th
e is
sue of
com
mu
nit
y in
tere
st an
d b
y
94
Pete
r A
shto
n
imp
rovi
ng
the
def
init
ion
of
equ
itab
le u
tili
sati
on.
Th
is d
octr
ine
rep
re-
sents
a m
ore
bal
ance
d a
ppro
ach w
hic
h s
eeks
to c
ontr
ibute
to
the
join
t
develo
pm
en
t of
rip
ari
an
cou
ntr
ies
wit
hin
a s
hare
d b
asi
n.
Th
is i
s
ach
ieve
d t
hro
ugh
eq
uit
able
div
isio
n a
nd
sh
arin
g of
ben
efit
s. A
t th
e
sam
e ti
me
the
man
agem
ent
of w
ater
wit
hin
that
bas
in i
s al
so i
mpro
ved.
An
un
fort
un
ate
char
acte
rist
ic o
f in
tern
atio
nal
wat
er l
aw i
s th
at i
t la
cks
the
com
puls
ory
juri
sdic
tion
and e
nfo
rcem
ent
that
nor
mal
ly c
har
acte
rise
dom
esti
c
lega
l sy
stem
s. R
ather
, it
rel
ies
on its
acc
epta
nce
by
the
affe
cted
sta
tes,
as
wel
l
as t
he
wor
ld c
omm
unit
y. T
he
non
-nav
igat
ional
use
of
rive
r sy
stem
s (e
.g.
for
dom
esti
c an
d i
ndust
rial
con
sum
pti
on),
has
foc
use
d c
onsi
der
able
att
enti
on o
n
the
nee
d f
or c
oop
erat
ive
shar
ing
of w
ater
res
ourc
es t
hro
ugh
out
the
SA
DC
countr
ies
(Pal
lett
1997).
This
was
furt
her
em
phas
ised
duri
ng
rece
nt
mee
tings
of t
he
SA
DC
Min
iste
rs (
Hey
ns
1995).
The
bas
is o
f m
oder
n i
nte
rnat
ional
wat
er l
aw h
as d
evel
oped
ove
r m
any
dec
ades
, an
d t
he
mos
t n
otab
le a
chie
vem
ent
was
th
e es
tab
lish
men
t of
th
e
Hel
sinki
Rule
s on
the
use
s of
inte
rnat
ional
riv
ers
(IL
A 1
996
). T
he
pri
nci
ple
s
embod
ied i
n t
hes
e R
ule
s hav
e bee
n e
xpan
ded
into
a s
et o
f 33 D
raft
Art
icle
s,
whic
h a
ssis
t ea
ch b
asin
sta
te i
n n
egot
iati
ng
a re
ason
able
and e
quit
able
shar
e
of t
he
avai
lable
wat
er r
esou
rces
(IL
C 1
994).
The
Hel
sinki
Rule
s co
nce
ntr
ate
on t
he
wat
er r
igh
ts a
nd
ob
liga
tion
s of
sta
tes
loca
ted
wit
hin
a s
har
ed r
iver
bas
in, an
d c
onta
in i
mpor
tant
pri
nci
ple
s ap
ply
:
•E
ach b
asin
sta
te,
wit
hin
its
ow
n t
erri
tory
, is
enti
tled
to
a re
ason
able
and e
quit
able
shar
e in
the
ben
efic
ial use
s of
wat
er w
ithin
an inte
rna-
tion
al d
rain
age
bas
in;
•T
he
inte
rest
s of
eac
h b
asin
sta
te s
hou
ld b
e sa
tisf
ied, w
ithou
t ca
usi
ng
subst
anti
al i
nju
ry t
o an
other
bas
in s
tate
;
•O
ne
bas
in s
tate
may
not
den
y an
oth
er s
tate
th
e re
ason
able
use
of
wat
er i
n a
n i
nte
rnat
ional
dra
inag
e bas
in f
or t
he
purp
ose
of r
eser
ving
the
wat
er f
or i
tsel
f; a
nd
•A
n e
xis
tin
g r
easo
nab
le u
se m
ay a
lso c
on
tin
ue,
un
less
it
can
be
show
n t
hat
it
nee
ds
to b
e ch
ange
d o
r st
opp
ed t
o ac
com
mod
ate
a
mor
e ben
efic
ial
and u
rgen
t use
.
The
Dra
ft A
rtic
les
dra
wn u
p b
y th
e In
tern
atio
nal
Law
Com
mis
sion
pro
mot
e
the c
on
cep
ts o
f p
rior
con
sult
ati
on
betw
een
basi
n s
tate
s, a
nd
th
e m
utu
al
shari
ng o
f d
ata
an
d i
nfo
rmati
on
in
reach
ing c
on
sen
sus
(IL
C 1
99
4).
An
inte
rest
ing
asp
ect
of t
hes
e D
raft
Art
icle
s is
th
at,
in t
he
even
t of
tw
o st
ates
97
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
com
ing
into
con
flic
t, the
obli
gati
on n
ot to
cause
har
m to
anot
her
sta
te p
reva
ils
over
the
conce
pt
of e
quit
able
use
, w
hic
h i
s st
ated
in t
he
Hel
sinki
Rule
s. T
his
is b
ase
d o
n t
he a
rgu
men
t th
at
the u
se o
f w
ate
r b
y o
ne s
tate
can
not
be
equit
able
if
it c
ause
s har
m t
o an
other
sta
te (
ILC
1994).
Th
e D
raft
Art
icle
s fu
rth
er a
dvo
cate
th
at a
ll s
tate
s sh
arin
g an
in
tern
a-
tion
al r
iver
bas
in s
hou
ld j
ointl
y fo
rm a
riv
er b
asin
man
agem
ent
auth
orit
y or
orga
nis
atio
n w
hic
h c
an e
qu
ally
rep
rese
nt
the
inte
rest
s of
eac
h s
tate
(IL
C
19
94
). T
his
ap
pro
ach
has
been
ad
op
ted
wit
h g
reat
success
els
ew
here
in
south
ern A
fric
a (P
alle
tt 1
997),
and i
s th
e bas
is f
or t
he
OK
AC
OM
agr
eem
ent
bet
wee
n A
ngo
la, B
otsw
ana
and N
amib
ia (
OK
AC
OM
1994).
Develo
pm
ent
of
appropria
te inst
ituti
onal st
ructu
res
At
an
in
tern
ati
on
al
level,
exte
nsi
ve c
oop
era
tion
exis
ts b
etw
een
sou
thern
Afr
ican
sta
tes
wh
ich
sh
are
in
tern
ati
on
al
river
basi
ns.
Th
is h
as
usu
all
y
tak
en t
he
form
of
rive
r b
asin
com
mis
sion
s or
Joi
nt
Per
man
ent
Tec
hn
ical
Com
mis
sion
s, w
her
e th
e in
tere
sts
and c
once
rns
of e
ach s
tate
are
pre
sente
d
an
d d
eb
ate
d b
efo
re d
ecis
ion
s are
tak
en
. H
ow
ever,
wh
ilst
th
ese
form
al
com
mis
sion
s an
d c
omm
itte
es a
re t
o be
wel
com
ed,
full
reg
ional
coo
per
atio
n
and c
oord
inat
ion a
re s
till
inad
equat
e (v
an W
yk 1
998).
In 1
99
5,
all
bu
t th
ree
of t
he
SA
DC
Hea
ds
of S
tate
sig
ned
th
e S
AD
C
Pro
toco
l on
Sh
ared
Wat
erco
urs
e S
yste
ms
(Hey
ns
19
95
). O
ne
mor
e co
un
try
has
rat
ifie
d t
he
pro
toco
l, l
eavi
ng
only
Moz
ambiq
ue
and Z
ambia
. T
his
is
an
imp
orta
nt
dev
elop
men
t, a
nd
sig
nif
ies
wid
esp
read
hei
ghte
ned
aw
aren
ess
of
the
crit
ical
im
por
tan
ce o
f w
ater
res
ourc
es t
o th
e en
tire
sou
ther
n A
fric
an
regi
on.
The
SA
DC
Pro
toco
l w
as f
ollo
wed
by
a N
ovem
ber
1995 m
eeti
ng
of t
he
SA
DC
Min
iste
rs r
espon
sible
for
Wat
er A
ffai
rs. A
new
SA
DC
Wat
er S
ecto
r w
as
esta
bli
shed
at
the
mee
ting.
All
of
thes
e dev
elop
men
ts a
re t
o be
wel
com
ed a
nd
it i
s an
tici
pat
ed t
hat
SA
DC
wil
l ev
entu
ally
bec
ome
a st
rong
regi
onal
for
ce i
n
the
pre
venti
on o
f w
ater
con
flic
ts.
At
a n
atio
nal
lev
el,
catc
hm
ent
man
agem
ent
app
roac
hes
req
uir
e th
e
form
atio
n o
f in
stit
uti
onal
str
uct
ure
s w
hic
h c
an p
rom
ote
the
empow
erm
ent
of
par
tici
pan
ts a
nd a
llow
mea
nin
gful
par
tici
pat
ion b
y al
l st
akeh
older
s. W
hil
st
man
y of
thes
e st
ruct
ure
s ar
e st
ill
in t
hei
r in
fancy
and h
ave
not
yet
beg
un t
o
fun
cti
on
pro
perl
y, w
e c
an
an
ticip
ate
th
at
they w
ill
pro
vid
e a
n e
ssen
tial
pro
cess
for
def
usi
ng
confl
ict
situ
atio
ns
and p
reve
nti
ng
wat
er c
onfl
icts
.
Develo
pm
ent
of
part
icip
ato
ry,
conse
nsu
s-se
ekin
g a
ppro
aches
A c
entr
al c
ompon
ent of
con
flic
t pre
venti
on is
a nee
d for
the
pri
or d
evel
opm
ent
96
Pete
r A
shto
n
of s
uit
able
par
tici
pat
ory
pro
cess
es d
esig
ned
to
seek
con
sen
sus
and
agr
ee-
men
t. I
n t
he c
ase
of
wate
r con
flic
ts,
it i
s im
port
an
t fo
r in
stit
uti
on
s an
d
countr
ies
to h
ave
a m
utu
al f
ram
ewor
k o
f cr
iter
ia a
nd a
gree
men
ts t
o pro
vide
the b
asi
s fo
r d
ecis
ion
s. T
his
als
o r
eq
uir
es
wid
esp
read
agre
em
en
t on
th
e
shari
ng o
f in
form
ati
on
an
d d
ata
, ra
ther
than
each
part
icip
an
t re
tain
ing
(hoa
rdin
g) t
he
info
rmat
ion i
t co
nsi
der
s to
be
impor
tant
(Turt
on 1
999).
In t
urn
,
this
op
enn
ess
wil
l h
elp
all
par
tici
pan
ts t
o u
nd
erst
and
th
e se
ts o
f ru
les
and
const
rain
ts w
ithin
whic
h t
hey
nee
d t
o w
ork,
and w
ill
also
fac
ilit
ate
the
join
t
dev
elop
men
t of
alt
ern
ativ
e op
tion
s or
sol
uti
ons
to a
par
ticu
lar
pro
ble
m o
r
con
cern
. T
his
ab
ilit
y to
gen
erat
e n
ew o
pti
ons
is o
ne
of t
he
mos
t im
por
tan
t
key
s to
succ
essf
ul
neg
otia
tion
s (D
elli
Pri
scol
i 199
8).
We
are
all
awar
e of
how
im
por
tant
it i
s fo
r par
tici
pan
ts i
n a
dis
pute
to
reac
h c
onse
nsu
s or
agr
eem
ent
wher
ever
pos
sible
. H
owev
er, so
met
imes
this
is
not
pos
sible
, si
nce
the
dif
fere
nce
s bet
wee
n t
he
par
ties
con
cern
ed m
ay r
emai
n
too
far
apar
t to
be
bri
dge
d b
y a
singl
e so
luti
on,
or a
com
bin
atio
n o
f so
luti
ons.
Whil
st t
his
typ
e of
sit
uat
ion m
ay b
e dri
ven b
y ec
onom
ic o
r id
eolo
gica
l st
and-
poi
nts
, ra
ther
th
an d
iffe
ren
ces
of o
pin
ion
ove
r w
ater
, th
e en
d r
esu
lt i
s th
e
sam
e: f
ailu
re t
o re
ach
joi
nt
agre
emen
t. I
n s
uch
sit
uat
ion
s, c
onfl
icts
can
be
pre
vente
d i
f an
agr
eed p
roce
ss f
or i
ndep
enden
t ar
bit
rati
on t
o co
ver
this
eve
n-
tual
ity,
has
alr
eady
bee
n s
elec
ted.
Pos
sible
sol
uti
ons
in t
he
case
of
dis
pute
s
bet
wee
n t
wo
or m
ore
countr
ies
incl
ude
the
Inte
rnat
ional
Cou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e at
The
Hag
ue,
as
in t
he
case
of
the
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd d
ispute
(IC
J 1999).
Inev
itab
ly,
indiv
idual
cou
ntr
ies
whic
h s
har
e th
e sa
me
rive
r bas
in w
ill
hav
e to
con
tinue
to c
oexi
st a
nd u
se t
hei
r sh
ared
wat
er r
esou
rces
in t
he
futu
re
(Ash
ton &
Mac
Kay
1996).
It
is t
her
efor
e ex
trem
ely
impor
tant
for
thes
e co
un-
trie
s to
en
sure
th
at
suit
ab
le i
nst
itu
tion
al
stru
ctu
res
an
d a
dm
inis
trati
ve
pro
cess
es a
re i
n p
lace
. T
his
wil
l h
elp
th
em m
ain
tain
cor
dia
l re
lati
ons
wit
h
one
anot
her
, an
d w
ill
also
pre
ven
t th
e n
eed
to
use
th
e ra
ther
dis
sati
sfyi
ng
op
tion
of
an
in
dep
en
den
t th
ird
part
y o
r arb
itra
tor
to r
eso
lve t
heir
wate
r
confl
icts
.
Par
tici
pat
ory
dec
isio
n-m
akin
g pro
cess
es t
hat
see
k t
o re
ach c
onse
nsu
s
are
equal
ly i
mpor
tant
at t
he
leve
l of
indiv
idual
s an
d c
omm
unit
ies.
Her
e, i
t is
also
im
por
tant
to e
nsu
re t
hat
all
par
tici
pan
ts f
ull
y under
stan
d t
hei
r ro
les
and
resp
onsi
bil
itie
s, a
nd
th
at t
hey
are
su
ffic
ien
tly
emp
ower
ed t
o ex
erci
se t
hei
r
resp
onsi
bil
itie
s th
rough
the
pro
visi
on o
f in
form
atio
n.
Ult
imat
ely,
eac
h p
erso
n
or c
omm
unit
y has
to
‘ow
n’ an
d i
mple
men
t th
e so
luti
on t
hat
has
bee
n d
eriv
ed
from
th
eir
join
t d
elib
erat
ion
s an
d i
nte
ract
ion
s. T
his
is
only
pos
sib
le w
hen
each
indiv
idual
als
o ‘o
wns’
the
pro
cess
use
d t
o der
ive
thes
e so
luti
ons.
99
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
Conclu
din
g R
em
arks
In t
his
ove
rvie
w,
we
hav
e ex
amin
ed s
ome
of t
he
fact
ors
that
cau
se o
r pro
mot
e
wat
er c
onfl
icts
, an
d w
e h
ave
revi
ewed
a f
ew e
xam
ple
s of
exi
stin
g w
ater
-
rela
ted c
onfl
icts
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a. B
ased
on the
avai
lable
evi
den
ce, w
e hav
e
seen
that
wat
er c
onfl
icts
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a ar
e in
evit
able
, unle
ss w
e ca
n t
ake
appro
pri
ate
pre
venti
ve a
ctio
ns.
The
opin
ion b
ehin
d t
his
ass
erti
on i
s fu
elle
d
by
the
conti
nual
incr
ease
in d
eman
ds
for
wat
er,
whic
h h
as a
res
ourc
e bas
e
that
can
not
suppor
t in
def
init
ely.
Som
e of
th
e p
reve
nti
ve m
easu
res
men
tion
ed a
bov
e h
ave
bee
n b
rief
ly
ou
tlin
ed
. T
hese
cen
tre p
rim
ari
ly o
n p
rocess
es
of
join
t d
ecis
ion
-mak
ing,
wit
hin
su
itab
le i
nst
itu
tion
al a
nd
leg
isla
tive
fra
mew
ork
s. I
t is
im
por
tan
t to
not
e th
at t
he
pos
sible
opti
ons
for
confl
ict
pre
venti
on a
re g
ener
ic i
n n
ature
,
but
thes
e w
ill
hav
e to
be
cust
omis
ed t
o m
ake
them
sit
e-sp
ecif
ic,
to s
uit
the
indiv
idual
nee
ds
of t
he
com
munit
ies
and c
ountr
ies
invo
lved
.
Th
e is
sue
of t
he
scal
e of
act
ual
or
pot
enti
al c
onfl
ict
is i
mp
orta
nt,
as
wel
l as
the
spec
ific
cir
cum
stan
ces
that
hav
e gi
ven r
ise
to t
he
pro
ble
m.
For
exam
ple
, a
rive
r b
oun
dar
y th
at c
oin
cid
es w
ith
, or
for
ms,
th
e in
tern
atio
nal
bou
ndar
y bet
wee
n t
wo
countr
ies,
has
the
real
pot
enti
al o
f bec
omin
g a
cause
of c
onfl
ict
when
ever
the
rive
r ch
ange
s it
s pos
itio
n.
Sim
ilar
ly,
it i
s cl
ear
that
‘dow
nst
ream
’ cou
ntr
ies
and c
omm
unit
ies
wil
l al
way
s be
mor
e vu
lner
able
than
‘upst
ream
’ cou
ntr
ies.
In turn
, the
deg
ree
of v
uln
erab
ilit
y fe
lt b
y a
‘dow
nst
ream
’
indiv
idual
, co
mm
unit
y or
cou
ntr
y w
ould
be
det
erm
ined
by
per
cepti
ons
of t
he
rela
tive
eco
nom
ic, so
cial
and m
ilit
ary
stre
ngt
hs
of t
he
dif
fere
nt
par
ties
.
All
of
the
larg
er-s
cale
sou
ther
n A
fric
an e
xam
ple
s of
wat
er c
onfl
ict
shar
e
the c
hara
cte
rist
ic t
hat
wate
r m
ay h
ave c
on
trib
ute
d t
o t
he c
on
flic
t, (
for
exam
ple
th
rou
gh t
he
eros
ive
acti
on o
f a
rive
r ch
angi
ng
the
pos
itio
n o
f it
s
chan
nel
), t
hou
gh i
t has
not
bee
n t
he
pri
mar
y fo
cus
for
the
confl
ict.
Som
e of
the e
xam
ple
s als
o c
om
pri
se s
itu
ati
on
s w
here
access
to o
ther
reso
urc
es
(e.g
. oi
l, g
as, m
iner
als,
gra
zing
land) is
com
pro
mis
ed b
y th
e pro
xim
ity
of thes
e
reso
urc
es t
o a
nat
ion
al b
oun
dar
y w
hos
e p
reci
se p
osit
ion
is
dis
pu
ted
. T
he
rela
tive
ly s
mal
ler-
scal
e si
tuat
ions
of w
ater
-rel
ated
con
flic
t co
nsi
st m
ainly
of
intr
a-co
mm
un
ity
and
in
ter-
com
mu
nit
y d
isp
ute
s ov
er a
cces
s to
wat
er,
or t
o
serv
ices
ass
ocia
ted w
ith w
ater
. T
hes
e dis
pute
s oc
cur
usu
ally
wit
hin
a s
mal
l
geog
rap
hic
al a
rea
and
sel
dom
esc
alat
e to
in
volv
e co
mm
un
itie
s fr
om n
eigh
-
bou
rin
g co
un
trie
s. W
hil
st t
hes
e sm
all-
scal
e co
nfl
icts
are
ver
y re
al t
o th
ose
invo
lved
, an
d o
ften
res
ult
in t
he
dea
th o
f in
div
idual
s or
thei
r li
vest
ock,
they
are
not
con
sider
ed t
o be
true
wat
er w
ars
in t
he
wid
ely
acce
pte
d s
ense
of
a
98
Pete
r A
shto
n
mil
itar
y co
nfl
ict
bet
wee
n t
wo
or m
ore
countr
ies.
Thei
r sm
alle
r sc
ale
mak
es
them
mor
e am
enab
le t
o re
solu
tion
by
pea
cefu
l, n
egot
iate
d m
ean
s, a
nd
th
e
resu
ltin
g so
luti
ons
tend t
o per
sist
bec
ause
eac
h i
ndiv
idual
is
invo
lved
in t
he
reso
luti
on p
roce
ss.
We
can a
lso
concl
ude
that
‘tru
e’ w
ater
war
s co
mpri
se o
nly
thos
e ex
trem
e
case
s w
her
e th
e pri
mar
y fo
cus
is t
o se
cure
acc
ess
to w
ater
, or
wher
e w
ater
is
the
pri
mar
y of
fensi
ve w
eapon
. D
espit
e th
e dir
e pre
dic
tion
s of
man
y au
thor
s,
the
avai
lable
evi
den
ce s
ugg
ests
ver
y st
rongl
y th
at i
t is
hig
hly
unli
kel
y th
at
‘tru
e’ w
ater
war
s w
ill ev
er o
ccur
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a. H
owev
er, th
is is
no
reas
on
for
com
pla
cency
on o
ur
par
t. W
e al
l sh
are
the
resp
onsi
bil
ity
of e
nsu
ring
that
wat
er w
ars
nev
er o
ccu
r in
sou
ther
n A
fric
a, o
r el
sew
her
e. W
e n
ow n
eed
to
join
tly
iden
tify
thos
e so
-cal
led ‘hot
spot
s’ w
her
e w
ater
con
flic
ts c
ould
ari
se i
n
futu
re.
Th
en w
e n
eed
to
dev
elop
joi
nt
stra
tegi
es t
o d
efu
se t
hes
e si
tuat
ion
s.
Mil
itar
y co
nfr
onta
tion
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd B
otsw
ana
has
alr
eady
occu
rred
in t
he
case
of
Sed
udu/K
asik
ili
Isla
nd;
we
must
ensu
re t
hat
this
sit
uat
ion i
s
not
rep
eate
d.
Th
is r
esp
onsi
bil
ity
req
uir
es e
ach
of
us
to p
rom
ote
the
pri
nci
ple
s of
eq
uit
y a
nd
su
stain
ab
ilit
y i
n a
ll o
ur
deali
ngs
wit
h w
ate
r u
sers
an
d w
ate
r
reso
urc
e m
anag
ers
thro
ugh
out
the
sou
ther
n A
fric
an r
egio
n.
Sim
ilar
ly,
we
shou
ld s
eek
new
way
s to
in
flu
ence
th
e re
leva
nt
wat
er m
anag
emen
t in
stit
u-
tion
s an
d a
uth
orit
ies
to f
ocus
thei
r ef
fort
s on
thos
e lo
nge
r-te
rm p
olic
ies,
pla
ns
and a
ctio
ns
whic
h w
ill
pre
vent
wat
er c
onfl
icts
, ra
ther
than
ret
ainin
g on
ly a
shor
t-te
rm f
ocus
and t
hen
try
ing
to r
esol
ve c
onfl
icts
aft
er t
hey
hav
e oc
curr
ed.
Fai
lure
to
ach
ieve
th
is i
s li
kel
y to
res
ult
in
an
in
crea
sed
nu
mb
er o
f w
ater
-
rela
ted d
ispute
s, w
ith t
he
stro
ng
likel
ihoo
d t
hat
thei
r in
tensi
ty m
ay e
scal
ate
pro
gres
sive
ly o
ver
tim
e to
into
lera
ble
lev
els
of c
onfl
ict
bet
wee
n c
omm
unit
ies
and, ev
en w
orse
, bet
wee
n c
ountr
ies.
Refe
rences
Ash
ton, P.
J., 1999, P
oten
tial
Envi
ronm
enta
l Im
pact
s A
ssoc
iate
d w
ith t
he
Abs
tract
ion o
f W
ate
r fr
om
the
Oka
vango
Riv
er i
n N
am
ibia
, pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Annual
Con
fere
nce
of
the
Sou
ther
n
Afr
ican
Ass
ocia
tion
of
Aquat
ic S
cien
tist
s, S
wak
opm
und, N
amib
ia, 23-2
6 J
une
1999, p.1
2.
Ash
ton
, P.
J. a
nd
Mac
Kay
, H
.M.,
19
96
, T
he
Ph
ilos
oph
y a
nd
Pra
ctic
e of
In
teg
rate
d C
atc
hm
ent
Managem
ent:
Im
plic
ati
ons
for
Wate
r R
esou
rce
Managem
ent
in S
outh
Afr
ica –
Dis
cuss
ion
Doc
um
ent,
Dep
artm
ent
of W
ater
Aff
airs
& F
ores
try
and
Wat
er R
esea
rch
Com
mis
sion
,
Pre
tori
a, W
RC
Rep
ort
No.
TT
81
/96
, p
.13
9.
10
1
South
ern A
fric
an w
ate
r c
onfl
icts
Ash
ton
, P.
J. a
nd
Man
ley,
R.E
., 1
99
9,
Pot
enti
al
Hyd
rolo
gic
al
Impl
ica
tion
s A
ssoc
iate
d w
ith
th
e
Abs
tract
ion o
f W
ate
r fr
om t
he
Oka
vango
Riv
er i
n N
am
ibia
, pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Nin
th S
outh
Afr
ican
Hyd
rolo
gica
l C
onfe
rence
, U
niv
ersi
ty o
f th
e W
este
rn C
ape,
29-3
0 N
ovem
ber
1999,
p.1
2
Asm
al,
K.,
19
98
, W
ater
as
a M
etap
hor
for
Gov
ern
ance
: Is
sues
in
th
e M
anag
emen
t of
Wat
er
Res
ourc
es i
n A
fric
a, W
ate
r P
olic
y, 1
:95
-10
1.
Bass
on
, M
.S.,
van
Nie
kerk
, P.
H.
an
d v
an
Rooyen
, J.
A.,
19
97
, O
verv
iew
of
Wa
ter
Res
ou
rces
Ava
ilabi
lity
and U
tili
sati
on i
n S
outh
Afr
ica
, D
epar
tmen
t of
Wat
er A
ffai
rs &
For
estr
y an
d
BK
S (
Pty
) L
td., D
WA
F R
epor
t N
o.P
RSA
/00/0
197, P
reto
ria,
p.7
2.
Bis
was
, A
.K.,
19
93
, M
anagem
ent
of I
nte
rnati
onal
Wate
r: P
robl
ems
and P
ersp
ecti
ve,
UN
ES
CO
,
Par
is, p.1
42.
Busi
nes
s R
epor
t, 1
998,
‘Eth
iopia
Chal
lenge
s Sudan
, E
gypt
on U
se o
f N
ile
Wat
er’, 1
Sep
tem
ber
19
98
.
Con
ley,
A.H
., 1
995,
A S
ynop
tic
Vie
w o
f W
ate
r R
esou
rces
in S
outh
ern A
fric
a,
pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Con
fere
nce
of
the
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a F
oun
dat
ion
for
Eco
nom
ic R
esea
rch
on
‘In
tegr
ated
Dev
elop
men
t of
Reg
ional
Wat
er R
esou
rces
’, N
yanga
, Z
imbab
we,
13-1
7 N
ovem
ber
1995,
p.3
2.
Con
ley,
A.H
., 1
996,
The
Nee
d t
o D
evel
op t
he
Wate
r R
esou
rces
of
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a,
pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Vic
tori
a F
alls
Con
fere
nce
on ‘
Aquat
ic S
yste
ms’
, E
lephan
t H
ills
Hot
el,
Vic
tori
a F
alls
,
Zim
bab
we,
3-6
Ju
ly 1
99
6, p
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Con
ley,
A.H
. an
d v
an N
ieker
k, P.
H., 1
997, Sust
ain
abl
e M
anagem
ent
of I
nte
rnati
onal
Wate
rs: T
he
Ora
nge
Riv
er C
ase
, pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Glo
bal
Wat
er P
artn
ersh
ip W
orksh
op,
Win
dhoe
k,
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ibia
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Nov
ember
1996, p.1
9.
Del
li P
risc
oli,
J.,
19
96
, C
onfl
ict
Res
olu
tion
, C
olla
bor
atio
n a
nd
Man
agem
ent
in I
nte
rnat
ion
al
Wate
r R
eso
urc
e I
ssu
es,
Alt
ern
ati
ve D
ispu
te R
esolu
tion
Ser
ies,
Work
ing P
ap
er
No.6
,
Inst
itute
for
Wat
er R
esou
rces
, U
.S. A
rmy
Cor
ps
of E
ngi
nee
rs, W
ashin
gton
DC
, p.4
8.
Del
li P
risc
oli,
J., 1
998, W
ate
r and C
ivil
isati
on: C
onfl
ict,
Coo
pera
tion
and t
he
Roo
ts o
f a N
ew E
co-
Rea
lism
, p
roce
edin
gs o
f th
e E
igh
th S
tock
hol
m W
orld
Wat
er S
ymp
osiu
m,
10
-13
Au
gust
19
98
, S
tock
hol
m, S
wed
en, p
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.
Fal
ken
mar
k,
M., 1
989,
The
Mas
sive
Wat
er S
carc
ity
Now
Thre
aten
ing
Afr
ica:
Why
isn’t i
t B
eing
Addre
ssed
? A
mbi
o, 1
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12
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8.
Fal
ken
mar
k, M
., 1
994, T
he
Danger
ous
Spi
ral:
Nea
r-F
utu
re R
isks
for
Wate
r-R
elate
d E
co-C
onfl
icts
,
pro
ceed
ings
of
the
ICR
C S
ymp
osiu
m ‘
Wat
er a
nd
War
: S
ymp
osiu
m o
n W
ater
in
Arm
ed
Con
flic
ts’,
In
tern
ati
on
al
Com
mit
tee o
f th
e R
ed
Cro
ss,
Mon
treu
x,
Sw
itze
rlan
d,
21
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Nov
emb
er 1
99
4, p
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.
Fis
ch,
M.,
19
99
, T
he
Capr
ivi
Str
ip d
uri
ng t
he
Ger
man C
olon
ial
Per
iod 1
890-1
914
, W
indhoe
k,
Nam
ibia
: O
ut
of A
fric
a P
ubli
sher
s, p
.151.
Gli
eck
, P.
H.,
19
93
, W
ater
an
d C
onfl
ict:
Fre
sh W
ater
Res
ourc
es a
nd
In
tern
atio
nal
Sec
uri
ty,
Inte
rnati
onal
Sec
uri
ty, 1
8(1
):8
4-1
17
.
10
0
Pete
r A
shto
n
Gli
eck
, P.
H.,
19
98
, T
he
Wor
ld’s
Wa
ter
19
98
-19
99
: B
ien
nia
l R
epor
t on
Fre
shw
ate
r R
esou
rces
,
Was
hin
gton
DC
: Is
land P
ress
, p.2
17.
Han
gula
, L
., 1
99
3,
Th
e In
tern
ati
ona
l B
oun
da
ry o
f N
am
ibia
, W
ind
hoe
k,
Nam
ibia
: G
amsb
erg
Mac
mil
lan
Pre
ss, p
.16
1.
Heyn
s, P
.S.v
.H.,
19
95
, T
he N
am
ibia
n P
ers
pecti
ve o
n R
egio
nal
Coll
ab
ora
tion
in
th
e J
oin
t
Dev
elop
men
t of
Inte
rnat
ional
Wat
er R
esou
rces
, In
tern
ati
onal
Journ
al
of W
ate
r R
esou
rces
Dev
elop
men
t, 1
1(4
):4
83
-49
1.
Hey
ns,
P.S
.v.H
., M
ontg
omer
y, J
., P
alle
tt,
J. a
nd S
eele
y, M
., 1
998,
Nam
ibia
’s W
ate
r: A
Dec
isio
n-
Make
rs G
uid
e, D
eser
t R
esea
rch F
oundat
ion o
f N
amib
ia a
nd D
epar
tmen
t of
Wat
er A
ffai
rs,
Win
dhoe
k, N
amib
ia, p.1
54.
Hom
er-D
ixon
, T.
and P
erci
val,
V., 1
996,
Envi
ronm
enta
l Sca
rcit
y and V
iole
nt
Con
flic
t, R
epor
t of
the P
op
ula
tion
an
d S
ust
ain
ab
le D
evelo
pm
en
t P
roje
ct,
Am
eri
can
Ass
ocia
tion
for
the
Adva
nce
men
t of
Sci
ence
and U
niv
ersi
ty o
f Tor
onto
, W
ashin
gton
DC
.
Hudso
n,
H., 1
996,
Res
ourc
e B
ased
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flic
t: W
ater
(In
)sec
uri
ty a
nd i
ts S
trat
egic
Im
pli
cati
ons,
in S
olom
on,
H.,
(ed
), S
ink
or S
wim
? W
ate
r, R
esou
rce
Sec
uri
ty a
nd
Sta
te C
oope
rati
on,
ISS M
onog
raph
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ies
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6,
Inst
itute
for
Sec
uri
ty S
tudie
s, H
alfw
ay H
ouse
, Sou
th A
fric
a.
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. 3
-16
.
ICJ,
19
99
, In
tern
ati
onal
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rt o
f Ju
stic
e – P
ress
Com
muniq
ué
99
/53
– K
asi
kili
/Sed
udu I
sland
(Bot
swana/N
am
ibia
), I
nte
rnat
ional
Cou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e, T
he
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ue,
Hol
lan
d,
13 D
ecem
ber
1999, p.2
. A
vail
able
at
web
site
<htt
p:/
/ww
w.i
cj-c
ij.o
rg>
ILA
, 1
96
6,
Hel
sin
ki
Ru
les
on
th
e U
ses
of
Wa
ters
of
Inte
rna
tion
al
Riv
ers,
In
tern
ati
on
al
Law
Ass
ocia
tion
, T
he
Hag
ue,
Hol
land, p.5
5.
ILC
, 1
99
4,
Dra
ft A
rtic
les
on t
he
La
w o
f N
on-N
avi
ga
tion
al
Use
s of
In
tern
ati
ona
l W
ate
rcou
rses
,
Inte
rnat
ional
Law
Com
mis
sion
, T
he
Hag
ue,
Hol
land
, p.7
2.
Kir
man
i, S
.S., 1
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Wat
er,
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ce a
nd C
onfl
ict
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ent:
The
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erie
nce
of
the
Indus
and
Mek
ong
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ins,
Wate
r In
tern
ati
onal,
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05
.
Kh
rod
a, G
., 1
99
6, Str
ain
, Soc
ial
and E
nvi
ronm
enta
l C
onse
quen
ces,
and W
ate
r M
an
agem
ent
in
the
Mos
t Str
esse
d W
ate
r Sys
tem
s in
Afr
ica, p.2
5. A
vail
able
at
web
site
<htt
p:/
/ww
w.i
drc
.ca/
boo
ks/
focu
s/804/c
hap
7.h
tm>
Mu
tem
bw
a, A
., 1
99
6,
Wate
r and t
he
Pot
enti
al
for
Res
ourc
e C
onfl
icts
in
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a,
un
pu
b-
lish
ed d
iscu
ssio
n p
aper
, U
niv
ersi
ty o
f Z
imbab
we,
Har
are,
Zim
bab
we.
Oh
lsso
n,
L.,
19
95
a,
Th
e R
ole
of
Wate
r an
d t
he O
rigin
s of
Con
flic
t, i
n O
hls
son
, L
., (
ed
),
Hyd
ropo
liti
cs: C
onfl
icts
Ove
r W
ate
r as
a D
evel
opm
ent
Con
stra
int,
Lon
don
: Z
ed, p
.23
6.
Oh
lsso
n,
L.,
19
95
b,
Wa
ter
an
d S
ecu
rity
in
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a,
pu
bli
cati
ons
on W
ater
Res
ourc
es,
No.1
, S
wed
ish
In
tern
ati
on
al
Develo
pm
en
t A
gen
cy (
SID
A),
Dep
art
men
t fo
r N
atu
ral
Res
ourc
es a
nd t
he
Envi
ronm
ent.
Pac
ken
ham
, T.
, 1991, T
he
Scr
am
ble
for
Afr
ica, L
ondon
: D
ouble
day
Publi
sher
s.
10
3
Hydro
political H
ots
pots
in S
outh
ern
Afr
ica: W
ill th
ere
be a
Wate
r W
ar?
The C
ase
of th
e K
unene R
iver
Ric
ha
rd
Meis
sn
er
‘Whis
key
is
for
dri
nkin
g but
wat
er i
s fo
r fi
ghti
ng
over
.’
Mar
k T
wai
n
Intr
oducti
on
Duri
ng
the
1980s
and 1
990s,
much
was
wri
tten
and s
aid a
bou
t th
e im
pen
din
g
wat
er w
ars
whic
h a
re e
xpec
ted i
n s
emi-
arid
and a
rid r
egio
ns
acro
ss t
he
glob
e
duri
ng
the
twen
ty-f
irst
cen
tury
. T
he
hyp
e ab
out
this
typ
e of
con
flic
t has
bee
n
inst
ille
d i
n t
he m
ind
s of
hyd
rop
oli
sist
s, a
nd
has
been
mad
e p
op
ula
r b
y
Bou
tros
Bou
tros
-Ghal
i’s s
tate
men
t th
at:
‘The
nex
t w
ar i
n t
he
Mid
dle
Eas
t w
ill
not
be
over
pol
itic
s b
ut
over
wat
er’. T
his
led
to
an e
scal
atio
n o
f re
sear
ch
pro
ject
s re
gard
ing
confl
ict
over
wat
er r
esou
rces
in
the
Mid
dle
Eas
t. T
hom
as
Naf
f an
d R
uth
Mat
son (1984),
and J
ohn C
oole
y (1
984) did
the
firs
t pio
nee
ring
stu
die
s on
th
e s
ub
ject
of
wate
r as
a s
ou
rce o
f con
flic
t an
d c
oop
era
tion
.
Coo
ley
(1984),
a n
ews
corr
espon
den
t by
pro
fess
ion, lo
oked
spec
ific
ally
at
the
con
necti
on
betw
een
wate
r an
d c
on
flic
t. S
ub
seq
uen
t st
ud
ies
an
d a
rtic
les
10
2
Pete
r A
shto
n
Pal
lett
, J.
, 1
99
7,
Sh
ari
ng
Wa
ter
In S
outh
ern
Afr
ica
, D
eser
t R
esea
rch
Fou
nd
atio
n o
f N
amib
ia,
Win
dhoe
k, N
amib
ia, p.1
21.
Pre
scot
t, J
.R.V
., 1
979, A
fric
a’s
Bou
ndar
y P
roble
ms,
Opt
ima, 2
8(1
):2
-21
.
Pre
tori
a N
ews,
1998, ‘
Wat
er C
ould
be
Cau
se o
f F
utu
re C
onfl
ict in
SA
DC
Sta
tes’
, 18 N
ovem
ber
1998.
Pre
tori
a N
ews,
1999a,
‘Wat
er w
ar “
loom
ing
for
S(o
uth
) A
fric
a”’, 2
4 F
ebru
ary
1999.
Pre
tori
a N
ews,
1999b, ‘A
smal
war
ns
of w
ater
con
flic
t’, 24 M
arch
1999.
Rep
ubli
c of
Sou
th A
fric
a, 1
998,
The
Nati
onal
Wate
r A
ct(A
ct 3
6 o
f 1998),
Gov
ernm
ent
of t
he
Rep
ubli
c of
Sou
th A
fric
a, P
reto
ria,
p.7
5.
Ros
egra
nt,
M.W
., 1
995, D
eali
ng w
ith W
ate
r Sca
rcit
y in
the
Nex
t C
entu
ry, 2020 B
rief
No.
21, Ju
ne
1995, p.5
. A
vail
able
at
web
site
<htt
p:/
/ww
w.c
giar
.org
/ifp
ri/2
020/b
rief
s/num
ber
21.h
tm>
.
Rose
gra
nt,
M
.W.,
1
99
7,
Wa
ter
Res
ou
rces
in
th
e Tw
enty
-Fir
st
Cen
tury
: C
ha
llen
ges
a
nd
Impl
icati
ons
for
Act
ion,
Foo
d,
Agr
icult
ure
, an
d t
he
Envi
ronm
ent
Dis
cuss
ion P
aper
No.
20,
Inte
rnat
ional
Foo
d P
olic
y R
esea
rch I
nst
itute
, W
ashin
gton
DC
, p.2
7.
SA
DC
, 1
99
5,
Pro
toco
l on
Sh
are
d W
ate
rcou
rse
Sys
tem
s in
th
e S
outh
ern
Afr
ica
n D
evel
opm
ent
Com
munit
y (S
AD
C)
Reg
ion
, SA
DC
Cou
nci
l of
Min
iste
rs, G
abor
one,
Bot
swan
a.
SA
DC
-EL
MS,
1996,
Pro
ceed
ings
of
the
wor
ksh
op o
n ‘
The
Dev
elop
men
t of
an I
nte
grat
ed W
ater
Res
ourc
es M
anag
emen
t P
lan f
or t
he
Zam
bez
i R
iver
Bas
in’, L
ivin
gsto
ne,
Zam
bia
, 2-6
May
1996, SA
DC
-EL
MS, M
aser
u, L
esot
ho.
SA
RD
C,
19
94
, T
he
Sta
te o
f th
e E
nvi
ronm
ent
in S
outh
ern A
fric
a,
Sou
ther
n A
fric
an R
esea
rch a
nd
Doc
um
enta
tion
Cen
tre,
Har
are,
Zim
bab
we,
p.2
14.
Sh
ela,
O.N
., 1
99
6, W
ate
r R
esou
rce
Managem
ent
and S
ust
ain
abl
e D
evel
opm
ent
in S
outh
ern A
fric
a:
Issu
es f
or
Con
sid
era
tion
in
Im
ple
men
tin
g t
he
Du
bli
n D
ecla
rati
on
an
d A
gen
da
21
in
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a,
pro
ceed
ings
of
the
Glo
bal
Wat
er P
artn
ersh
ip W
ork
shop
, W
ind
hoe
k,
Nam
ibia
, 6-7
Nov
ember
1996, p.8
.
Sm
ith,
S.E
. an
d A
l-R
awah
y, M
., 1
990,
The
Blu
e N
ile:
Pot
enti
al f
or C
onfl
ict
and A
lter
nat
ives
for
Mee
ting
Futu
re D
eman
ds,
Wate
r In
tern
ati
onal,
15
:21
7-2
22
.
Turt
on, A
.R., 1
999, W
ater
and C
onfl
ict
in a
n A
fric
an c
onte
xt, C
onfl
ict
Tren
ds,
5:2
4-2
7.
Turt
on,
A.R
., 2
00
0,
Wate
r W
ars
in S
outh
ern A
fric
a:
Chall
engin
g C
onve
nti
onal
Wis
dom
, pro
ceed
-
ings
of
the
Afr
ica
Dia
logu
e L
ectu
res
‘Hyd
rop
olit
ical
Hot
spot
s in
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a: W
ill
Ther
e be
a W
ater
War
?’, U
niv
ersi
ty o
f P
reto
ria,
20 M
arch
2000, p.2
4.
van W
yk, J
.A.,
1998, T
owar
ds
Wat
er S
ecuri
ty in S
outh
ern A
fric
a, A
fric
an S
ecuri
ty R
evie
w, 7
(2):59-6
8.
von M
oltk
e, J
., 1
977, T
he
Bou
ndar
ies
of S
outh
Wes
t A
fric
a, S
WA
An
nu
al
(19
77
), p
p.1
70
-17
2.
Wol
f, A
.T.,
19
96
, M
iddle
East
Wate
r C
onfl
icts
and D
irec
tion
s fo
r C
onfl
ict
Res
oluti
on,
2020 B
rief
No.
31
, A
pri
l 1
99
6, p
.4. A
vail
able
at
web
site
<htt
p:/
/ww
w.c
giar
.org
/ifp
ri/2
020/b
rief
s/num
ber
31.h
tm>
.
10
5
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
Inte
rnati
onal politi
cal in
teracti
on
In i
nte
rnati
on
al
poli
tics,
th
ree p
att
ern
s of
inte
racti
on
can
be i
den
tifi
ed
bet
wee
n a
ctor
s. F
irst
ly, pol
itic
s m
ay b
e ch
arac
teri
sed b
y co
mpet
itiv
e in
tera
c-
tion
s.
In
such
a
situ
ati
on
, th
e
ach
ievem
en
t of
goals
b
y
on
e
acto
r is
inco
mpat
ible
wit
h t
he
atta
inm
ent
of g
oals
by
other
act
ors.
The
acti
on t
hat
can
aris
e fr
om t
his
may
var
y fr
om a
bre
akd
own
in
com
mu
nic
atio
n t
o ou
trig
ht
mil
itar
y co
nfr
onta
tion
. Sec
ondly
, pol
itic
s m
ay b
e a
refl
ecti
on o
f co
oper
ativ
e
conta
ct,
in w
hic
h g
oal
achie
vem
ent
is f
acil
itat
ed o
r pro
mot
ed b
y th
e co
mple
-
men
tary
acti
on
s of
dif
fere
nt
poli
tical
acto
rs.
Th
is i
s u
suall
y r
efl
ecte
d i
n
coll
abor
ator
y ag
reem
ents
bet
wee
n s
tate
s an
d n
on-s
tate
enti
ties
. F
inal
ly,
and
mos
t re
alis
tica
lly,
pol
itic
s m
ay f
ollo
w a
mix
of
bot
h c
ooper
ativ
e an
d c
ompet
i-
tive
inte
ract
ions,
in w
hic
h a
ctor
s purs
ue
mult
iple
goa
ls,
som
e of
whic
h a
re
inco
mp
atib
le a
nd
th
us
give
ris
e to
con
ten
tion
, w
hil
e ot
her
s ar
e co
mp
atib
le
and
are
sou
ght
thro
ugh
com
ple
men
tary
en
dea
vou
rs (
Pu
chal
a 1
97
1:5
). I
n a
sim
ilar
vein
, S
oro
os
(19
86
:6)
con
ten
ds
that
‘worl
d p
oli
tics
is a
ric
h a
nd
per
ple
xin
g m
ixtu
re o
f tr
end
s an
d c
oun
ter-
tren
ds’
. W
hat
th
is m
ean
s is
th
at,
for
any
give
n p
erio
d o
f ti
me,
con
flic
t an
d m
ilit
ary
con
fron
tati
on c
an o
ccu
r
alon
gsid
e co
oper
atio
n a
nd a
ccom
mod
atio
n (
Sor
oos
198
6:6
). T
his
is
true
not
only
for
wor
ld p
olit
ics,
but
also
for
the
inte
ract
ion b
etw
een s
tate
s in
a r
iver
bas
in.
The
thre
e pat
tern
s of
inte
ract
ion t
hat
occ
ur
wit
hin
a r
ipar
ian c
onte
xt –
wit
h t
he
thir
d m
odel
bei
ng
the
mos
t im
por
tant
– w
ill
alw
ays
be
dis
cern
ible
wit
hin
the
dyn
amic
s of
any
rive
r bas
in.
By
anal
ysin
g th
e dyn
amic
s of
the
hyd
ropol
itic
al g
ame
in a
riv
er b
asin
,
one
is a
ble
to
mea
sure
, ov
er a
per
iod o
f ti
me,
the
nat
ure
and d
egre
e of
con
flic
t
and c
ooper
atio
n w
ithin
a r
ipar
ian c
onte
xt.
The
nat
ure
and d
egre
e of
con
flic
t
and c
ooper
atio
n o
ver
wat
er v
arie
s co
nst
antl
y an
d i
s not
the
sam
e at
any
give
n
poi
nt
in t
ime.
The
shar
ing
of t
he
Ora
nge
Riv
er b
y S
outh
Afr
ica
and L
esot
ho,
for
exam
ple
, cau
sed
a g
reat
deal
of
con
flic
t b
efo
re 1
98
6.
Th
e d
egre
e o
f
coop
erat
ion
tod
ay i
s gr
eate
r th
an b
efor
e an
d m
ay i
ncr
ease
fu
rth
er i
n t
he
imm
edia
te f
utu
re (
Mei
ssner
1999).
How
ever
, th
ere
is a
fli
p s
ide
to t
he
coin
.
The
over
all
inte
rnat
ional
rel
atio
ns
bet
wee
n s
tate
s sh
arin
g th
e w
ater
s of
a r
iver
bas
in,
ofte
n o
ffer
an i
ndic
atio
n o
f th
e nat
ure
and d
egre
e of
inte
ract
ion w
ithin
the
ripar
ian c
onte
xt i
tsel
f. I
f st
ate
A d
oes
not
mai
nta
in a
ver
y go
od r
elat
ion-
ship
wit
h s
tate
B, th
en it ge
ner
ally
fol
low
s th
at thei
r re
lati
onsh
ip w
ill be
found
wan
ting
when
it
com
es t
o th
e sh
arin
g of
wat
er r
esou
rces
. T
her
efor
e, i
t fo
llow
s
that
in a
nal
ysin
g th
e hyd
ropol
itic
s of
a g
iven
riv
er –
in t
his
cas
e th
e K
unen
e
Riv
er
– o
ne s
hou
ld a
lso l
ook
at
the n
atu
re o
f th
e r
ela
tion
ship
betw
een
10
4
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
foll
owed
. T
hes
e st
ud
ies
focu
sed
exp
lici
tly
on t
he
Mid
dle
Eas
t as
a s
emi-
arid
an
d a
rid
reg
ion
, an
d o
ne
of p
olit
ical
im
por
tan
ce t
o th
e in
tern
atio
nal
com
munit
y.
The
Mid
dle
Eas
t w
as n
ot the
only
reg
ion b
eing
scru
tinis
ed b
y ac
adem
ics
and w
ater
res
ourc
e pla
nner
s as
a f
utu
re w
ater
war
hot
spot
. Sou
ther
n A
fric
a
als
o c
am
e u
nd
er
the m
agn
ifyin
g g
lass
as
a r
egio
n w
here
pote
nti
al
wate
r
war
s co
uld
be
a re
alit
y in
the
not
so
dis
tant
futu
re.
At
a 1998 J
ohan
nes
burg
confe
rence
on s
outh
ern A
fric
a in
the
nex
t m
ille
nniu
m, A
ziz
Pah
ad, th
e Sou
th
Afr
ican
Dep
uty
Min
iste
r of
Fore
ign
Aff
air
s, i
den
tifi
ed
wate
r se
cu
rity
in
south
ern A
fric
a as
one
of t
he
mai
n i
ssues
and c
once
rns
in t
he
regi
on (
Pah
ad
1998:4
2).
Pah
ad (
1998:4
3)
war
ned
of
wat
er s
carc
itie
s, a
nd t
he
likel
ihoo
d o
f
con
flic
t as
a r
esu
lt o
f it
. T
he
ph
rase
‘w
ater
war
’ is
on
eve
ryb
ody’
s li
ps,
it
seem
s. H
owev
er,
what
is
mea
nt
by
a w
ater
war
? Is
it
a vi
olen
t co
nfl
ict
over
scar
ce w
ater
res
ourc
es,
or i
s it
a s
ituat
ion w
her
e w
ater
is
use
d a
s a
wea
pon
of
war
? Tw
o va
riab
les
are
at w
ork h
ere:
wat
er a
s a
dir
ect
cause
of
confl
ict,
and
wate
r b
ein
g u
sed
as
a w
eap
on
du
rin
g a
con
flic
t. T
his
am
big
uit
y h
as
the
pote
nti
al
to c
au
se c
on
fusi
on
, an
d t
he t
erm
‘w
ate
r w
ar’
sh
ou
ld b
e c
learl
y
def
ined
if
we
wan
t to
adeq
uat
ely
addre
ss t
he
issu
e of
wat
er w
ars
in s
outh
ern
Afr
ica.
A w
ater
war
is
a vi
olen
t co
nfl
ict
wh
ich
is
dir
ectl
y ca
use
d b
y th
e
inco
mpat
ible
shar
ing
and/o
r al
loca
tion
of
wat
er r
esou
rces
bet
wee
n s
tate
s or
non
-sta
te e
nti
ties
, at
bot
h t
he
nat
ional
and i
nte
rnat
ional
lev
el.
Th
is p
ap
er
wil
l lo
ok
at
the l
ikeli
hood
of
wate
r w
ars
occu
rrin
g i
n
sou
ther
n A
fric
a b
y an
alys
ing
the
hyd
rop
olit
ics
of t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
. T
he
rive
r is
shar
ed b
y N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la,
and o
ur
anal
ysis
wil
l fa
ll w
ithin
the
conte
xt o
f in
tern
atio
nal
rel
atio
ns
bet
wee
n t
hes
e tw
o co
untr
ies.
If
one
wan
ts t
o
test
the
hyp
othes
is o
f a
wat
er w
ar b
etw
een s
tate
s in
a s
emi-
arid
reg
ion,
one
shou
ld s
tud
y t
he i
nte
racti
on
of
these
acto
rs w
ith
regard
to s
hare
d w
ate
r
reso
urc
es. T
he
pap
er w
ill
also
pre
sent
som
e so
luti
ons,
shou
ld a
wat
er c
onfl
ict
aris
e in
the
bas
in.
This
pap
er c
onsi
sts
of t
hre
e par
ts.
The
firs
t se
ctio
n d
eals
wit
h p
olit
ical
in
tera
ctio
n b
etw
een
act
ors
in a
n i
nte
rnat
ion
al r
iver
bas
in.
In
the
seco
nd
par
t, t
he
ph
ysic
al c
har
acte
rist
ics
of t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
wil
l b
e
outl
ined
. T
he
final
par
t lo
oks
at t
he
dyn
amic
s of
wat
er p
olit
ics
in t
he
Kunen
e
Riv
er b
asin
. W
ater
or
hyd
ropol
itic
s is
def
ined
as
the
syst
emat
ic e
xam
inat
ion
of t
he
inte
ract
ion b
etw
een s
tate
s, n
on-s
tate
act
ors
and i
ndiv
idual
s – w
ithin
the n
ati
on
al
an
d i
nte
rnati
on
al
dom
ain
– w
ith
regard
to t
he a
uth
ori
tati
ve
allo
cati
on a
nd
/or
use
of
inte
rnat
ion
al a
nd
nat
ion
al w
ater
res
ourc
es s
uch
as
rive
rs, aq
uif
ers,
lak
es, gl
acie
rs a
nd w
etla
nds.
10
7
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
them
selv
es h
ave
an i
nfl
uen
ce o
n w
ater
res
ourc
e sc
arci
ty,
pro
duci
ng
eith
er a
n
acute
con
flic
t or
a c
ooper
ativ
e re
lati
onsh
ip (
Elh
ance
1999:6
). T
he
phys
ical
char
acte
rist
ics
of a
riv
er b
asin
and t
he
countr
ies
shar
ing
it,
also
exp
lain
the
rela
tion
ship
bet
wee
n H
omo
sapi
ens
and
th
e w
ay t
hey
uti
lise
th
eir
envi
ron
-
men
t. E
very
pol
itic
al c
omm
unit
y oc
cupie
s a
geog
raphic
al a
rea
whic
h h
as a
uniq
ue
com
bin
atio
n o
f lo
cati
on,
size
, sh
ape,
cli
mat
e an
d n
atura
l re
sourc
es.
Thes
e va
riab
les
infl
uen
ce t
he
beh
avio
ur
of s
tate
s. H
um
an a
ctiv
ity
is a
ffec
ted
by
the
unev
en d
istr
ibuti
on o
f hum
an a
nd n
on-h
um
an r
esou
rces
in t
he
syst
em
(Dou
gher
ty &
Pfa
lzgr
aff
19
90
:67
). C
onse
qu
entl
y, i
t is
nec
essa
ry t
o b
rief
ly
study
the
phys
ical
char
acte
rist
ics
of t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
bas
in t
o se
e w
hy
the
acto
rs i
n t
he
bas
in b
ehav
e in
a c
erta
in w
ay.
Physi
cal characte
ris
tics
of
the K
unene R
iver B
asi
n
The
Kunen
e R
iver
ris
es i
n t
he
centr
al h
ighla
nds
of A
ngo
la n
ear
Nov
a L
isboa
,
wher
e th
e an
nual
rai
nfa
ll i
s in
the
regi
on o
f 1,5
00 m
illi
met
res
(mm
). T
he
rive
r
is 1
,050 k
m l
ong
and h
as a
cat
chm
ent
area
of
110,0
00 k
m2
wit
h a
n a
nnual
dis
char
ge o
f ab
out
15 k
m3/y
r. T
he
last
340 k
m o
f th
e K
unen
e m
ake
up t
he
bor
der
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd
An
gola
. T
he
area
wh
ere
the
Ku
nen
e h
as i
ts
sourc
e is
ver
y m
ounta
inou
s. A
fter
it
cros
ses
the
bor
der
bet
wee
n A
ngo
la a
nd
Nam
ibia
the
flow
acc
eler
ates
, an
d f
or 3
0 k
m i
t ru
ns
thro
ugh
rav
ines
, an
d o
ver
rapid
s an
d w
ater
fall
s. I
t is
est
imat
ed,
from
an e
ngi
nee
ring
per
spec
tive
, th
at
the
Ku
nen
e R
iver
has
a s
urp
lus
of w
ater
(C
onle
y 1
99
5:7
). T
hes
e p
hys
ical
char
acte
rist
ics
give
ris
e to
the
Kunen
e R
iver
’s h
ydro
elec
tric
pot
enti
al (
Bes
t &
de
Bli
j 1977:3
27).
Nam
ibia
, th
e d
own
stre
am r
ipar
ian
in
th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er b
asin
, is
th
e
dri
est
cou
ntr
y in
Afr
ica,
sou
th o
f th
e S
ahar
a. T
he
mea
n a
nn
ual
rai
nfa
ll i
s
app
roxi
mat
ely
28
4 m
m (
Dev
ereu
x &
Nae
raa
19
96
:42
7-4
28
) an
d t
he
tota
l
surf
ace
wat
er r
eser
ve i
s ab
out
4,1
bil
lion
cubic
met
res
per
yea
r (b
cm/y
). O
f
the
tota
l ra
infa
ll,
83%
(bet
wee
n 2
,600 m
m a
nd 3
,700 m
m)
evap
orat
es i
mm
e-
dia
tely
aft
er i
t had
fal
len,
whil
e th
e ot
her
17%
get
s ca
rrie
d a
way
as
surf
ace
run
-off
. O
f th
is r
em
ain
ing 1
7%
, on
ly 1
% p
erc
ola
tes
into
th
e g
rou
nd
to
rep
len
ish
gro
un
dw
ate
r an
d 1
4%
is
lost
to e
vap
otr
an
spir
ati
on
. O
nly
2%
rem
ain
s to
be
stor
ed (
Inte
rnet
: F
ood
an
d A
gric
ult
ure
Org
anis
atio
n 1
99
7b
).
The
only
per
ennia
l ri
vers
are
als
o in
tern
atio
nal
riv
ers,
on w
hic
h N
amib
ia i
s
very
dep
enden
t.
On t
he
other
han
d,
Ango
la,
wit
h i
ts m
ostl
y tr
opic
al c
lim
ate,
has
a m
ore
10
6
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
bor
der
ing
stat
es w
ith r
egar
d t
o sh
ared
wat
er r
esou
rces
.
As
not
ed a
bov
e, t
her
e ar
e th
ree
types
of
inte
ract
ion b
etw
een s
tate
s in
the
inte
rnat
ional
pol
itic
al a
rena.
Ther
e ar
e al
so t
hre
e sc
hoo
ls o
f th
ough
t on
the
issu
e of
wat
er w
ars:
ther
e ar
e th
ose
who
say
that
wat
er w
ill
one
day
lea
d t
o
viol
ent co
nfl
ict;
ther
e ar
e th
ose
who
say
that
wat
er w
ill,
only
on o
ccas
ion, le
ad
to c
onfl
ict bet
wee
n s
tate
s; a
nd ther
e ar
e th
ose
who
say
that
wat
er c
ould
lea
d to
grea
ter
coop
erat
ion w
ithin
and b
etw
een s
tate
s. T
hos
e w
ho
argu
e th
at a
wat
er
war
wil
l, i
n a
ll l
ikel
ihoo
d o
ccu
r in
sem
i-ar
id a
nd
ari
d r
egio
ns,
bas
e th
eir
stat
emen
ts o
n t
he
assu
mpti
on t
hat
wat
er s
carc
itie
s, t
he
impro
vem
ent
of l
ivin
g
stan
dar
ds
couple
d w
ith p
opula
tion
gro
wth
, an
d g
lobal
cli
mat
ic c
han
ges
wil
l
contr
ibute
to
tensi
ons
and v
iole
nt
confl
ict
bet
wee
n s
tate
s (G
leic
k 1
995:8
4).
Th
is i
s th
e m
ain
rea
list
arg
um
ent
by
obse
rver
s w
riti
ng
on t
he
sub
ject
of
wat
er w
ars.
How
ever
, th
is i
s not
univ
ersa
lly
acce
pte
d. It
is
easy
to
exag
gera
te
the
impor
tance
of
nat
ura
l re
sourc
es a
s an
obje
ct o
f co
nfl
ict.
A d
ispute
ove
r
nat
ura
l re
sourc
es s
eem
s so
fre
quen
t, t
hat
it
can b
ecom
e te
mpti
ng
to r
egar
d
the c
om
peti
tive d
em
an
d f
or
wate
r as
the s
ingle
most
im
port
an
t cau
se o
f
confl
ict
and w
ar.
This
see
ms
to b
e th
e ca
se w
ith w
ater
res
ourc
es t
hro
ugh
out
the
wor
ld.
A d
isp
ute
or
mil
itar
y co
nfl
ict
wh
ich
in
volv
es r
esou
rces
is
not
nec
essa
rily
a s
trugg
le o
ver
reso
urc
es (
Bro
ck 1
991:4
09-4
10).
Wat
er r
esou
rce
dep
leti
on i
s se
ldom
, if
eve
r, t
he
only
cau
se o
f m
ajor
con
flic
t w
ithin
or
amon
g
stat
es (
Hol
st 1
989:1
25).
Inte
rsta
te c
onfl
icts
can
be
cause
d b
y a
grea
t va
riet
y
of f
acto
rs,
incl
ud
ing
eth
nic
an
tago
nis
m,
ideo
logy
, b
ord
er d
isp
ute
s, e
xpan
-
sion
ist
aspir
atio
ns
by
stat
es,
reli
gion
and s
o on
. T
her
efor
e, w
ater
can
be
par
t
of t
he
confl
ict,
but
not
the
over
ridin
g m
otiv
e fo
r st
arti
ng
a w
ar.
Furt
her
, th
ere
exis
ts t
he
pos
sibil
ity
of c
ooper
atio
n o
ver
wat
er a
s a
mea
ns
to s
tren
gthen
the
over
all
inte
rnat
ional
rel
atio
ns
bet
wee
n n
atio
ns
shar
ing
this
res
ourc
e (B
rock
19
91
:41
3)
Gle
ick
is
in c
once
rt w
ith
th
is w
hen
he
says
th
at n
ot a
ll w
ater
dis
pute
s w
ill
lead
to
war
, ‘indee
d m
ost
lead
to
neg
otia
tion
s, d
iscu
ssio
ns,
and
non
-vio
lent
solu
tion
s’.
Anal
ysin
g th
e w
ater
pol
itic
s of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
wil
l
show
that
wat
er h
as n
ever
led
to
viol
ent
confl
ict,
and t
he
likel
ihoo
d t
hat
it
wil
l, w
ill
nev
er o
ccur.
An a
nal
ysis
of
the
hyd
ropol
itic
s w
ill
shed
som
e li
ght
on
the
kin
d o
f in
tera
ctio
n that
has
his
tori
call
y oc
curr
ed in the
Kunen
e bas
in, an
d
whic
h c
onti
nues
to
takes
pla
ce.
Befo
re t
ack
lin
g t
he d
yn
am
ics
of
hyd
rop
oli
tics
in t
he K
un
en
e R
iver
bas
in, how
ever
, it
is
impor
tant th
at w
e fi
rst lo
ok a
t th
e phys
ical
char
acte
rist
ics
of
the r
iver
basi
n,
as
well
as
the c
ou
ntr
ies
shari
ng i
t. T
his
is
imp
ort
an
t
bec
ause
man
y in
terv
enin
g va
riab
les
– l
ike
the
geog
rap
hic
, cl
imat
olog
ical
and h
ydro
logi
cal
char
acte
rist
ics
of a
rip
aria
n s
yste
m a
nd r
iver
bas
in –
can
10
9
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
a st
rong
econ
omy
to p
rovi
de
jobs
in t
he
south
ern s
ecto
r fo
r peo
ple
fro
m t
he
nat
ive
hom
elan
ds.
One
cannot
hav
e a
stro
ng
econ
omy
wit
hou
t in
fras
truct
ure
’
(Chri
stie
1976:4
0, per
sonal
inte
rvie
w w
ith D
. M
udge
).
Ow
ing
to t
he
fact
that
the
Kunen
e R
iver
is
an i
nte
rnat
ional
riv
er,
it w
as
nec
essa
ry f
or t
he
pre
viou
s en
titi
es w
hic
h c
ontr
olle
d N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la –
as
wel
l as
for
th
ose
wh
o d
o so
at
pre
sen
t –
to
com
e u
p w
ith
som
e ag
reem
ent
rega
rdin
g th
e sh
arin
g of
the
rive
r’s
wat
er. In
tern
atio
nal
agr
eem
ents
and c
oop-
erat
ion r
egar
din
g th
e w
ater
s of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
for
med
par
t of
the
copin
g
stra
tegi
es e
nvi
sage
d b
y N
amib
ia a
nd
An
gola
. H
owev
er,
it w
as n
ot a
lway
s
pla
in s
aili
ng
to d
evel
op t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
, b
ecau
se i
nte
rnat
ion
al p
olit
ical
fact
ors
had
(an
d s
till
hav
e) a
pro
found i
mpac
t on
thes
e pro
ject
ed p
lans.
From
cooperati
on t
o c
onfl
ict:
19
26
-19
88
Coo
per
atio
n r
egar
din
g th
e jo
int
man
agem
ent
of t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
can
be
trac
ed a
s fa
r bac
k a
s 1926, w
hen
the
Unio
n o
f Sou
th A
fric
a an
d t
he
Rep
ubli
c
of P
ortu
gal
sign
ed a
n a
gree
men
t to
reg
ula
te t
he
use
of
the
Ku
nen
e R
iver
wat
ers
for
the
purp
oses
of
gener
atin
g pow
er,
inundat
ion a
nd i
rrig
atio
n i
n t
he
man
dat
ed t
erri
tory
of
Sou
th W
est
Afr
ica
(SW
A)
(Agr
eem
ent
1990a;
Chri
stie
19
76
:31
). E
rnes
t O
pp
enh
eim
er e
nvi
sage
d t
hat
on
e of
his
com
pan
ies
wou
ld
bu
ild
a d
am o
n t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
to
sup
ply
th
e m
inin
g in
du
stry
in
SW
A/
Nam
ibia
. A
t th
at
tim
e,
Jan
Sm
uts
tri
ed
to r
ed
raw
th
e A
ngola
n b
ord
er
to
incl
ude
the
dam
sit
e at
Cal
ueq
ue
wit
in t
he
terr
itor
y of
Sou
th A
fric
a, b
ut
he
did
not
su
cces
s. N
o su
bst
anti
al i
nfr
astr
uct
ura
l d
evel
opm
ents
wer
e u
nd
er-
tak
en a
fter
th
e 1
92
6 a
gree
men
t. H
owev
er,
the
Ku
nen
e W
ater
Com
mis
sion
un
der
took
a s
urv
ey i
n 1
92
7 t
o in
vest
igat
e th
e p
ossi
bil
ity
of d
amm
ing
the
Kunen
e an
d d
iver
ting
its
wat
er i
nto
Ow
ambol
and (
Wel
lingt
on 1
938:2
6).
The
reas
on w
hy
no
dev
elop
men
t to
ok p
lace
at
that
tim
e, w
as t
hat
SW
A a
nd A
ngo
la
wer
e in
no
grea
t nee
d o
f w
ater
. T
he
grou
nd w
as,
how
ever
, pre
par
ed f
or f
utu
re
coop
erat
ion.
In 1
96
2,
the S
ou
th A
fric
a govern
men
t est
ab
lish
ed
th
e O
den
daal
Com
mis
sion
to
inve
stig
ate
a re
por
t co
nce
rnin
g th
e so
cio-
econ
omic
pot
enti
al
of S
WA
and t
he
mea
sure
s to
be
taken
to
stim
ula
te t
he
rate
of
dev
elop
men
t in
that
cou
ntr
y. T
he
final
rep
ort
of t
he
com
mis
sion
was
publi
shed
in 1
964.
One
of t
he
com
mis
sion
’s c
oncl
usi
ons
was
th
at t
he
wat
ers
of t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
shou
ld b
e uti
lise
d f
or t
he
gener
atio
n o
f el
ectr
ic p
ower
. T
his
kin
d o
f dev
elop
-
men
t co
uld
pro
vid
e a
sub
stan
tial
eco
nom
ic c
ontr
ibu
tion
to
the
acce
lera
ted
10
8
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
stab
le r
ainfa
ll p
atte
rn t
han
Nam
ibia
. R
ainfa
ll d
ecre
ases
fro
m n
orth
to
south
,
and a
lso
as o
ne
mov
es furt
her
aw
ay fro
m the
coas
tal ar
eas.
Ango
la is
ther
efor
e
mor
e w
ater
-ric
h t
han
Nam
ibia
. T
he
tota
l w
ater
sou
rce
is a
bou
t 1
58
bcm
/y.
How
ever,
An
gola
is
on
ly u
sin
g 0
.3%
(5
0 m
3p
er
cap
ita p
er
year)
of
its
avai
lable
wat
er r
esou
rces
. It
is
the
low
est
abst
ract
ion r
ate
in t
he
SA
DC
reg
ion
(Du T
oit
& J
acob
s 1995:3
0-3
1).
The
countr
y’s
26-y
ear-
long
civi
l w
ar i
s so
lely
to b
lam
e fo
r th
is.
Hav
ing
expen
ded
all
of
its
reso
urc
es o
n t
he
civi
l w
ar,
the
gove
rnm
ent
doe
s not
hav
e th
e fi
nan
cial
cap
abil
itie
s to
dev
elop
the
countr
y’s
wat
er s
ecto
r. A
lso,
much
of
the
wat
er i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
has
bee
n d
amag
ed d
uri
ng
the
confl
ict
and r
epai
rs c
annot
be
mad
e. T
his
is
the
mil
ieu w
hic
h f
orm
s th
e
bac
kgr
ound t
o th
e hyd
ropol
itic
al g
ame
in t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
bas
in.
The d
ynam
ics
of
wate
r p
oliti
cs
in t
he K
unene R
iver B
asi
n
Ow
ing t
o t
he f
act
that
Nam
ibia
is
not
very
ric
hly
en
dow
ed
wit
h w
ate
r
reso
urc
es, th
e st
ates
that
had
con
trol
ove
r N
amib
ia i
n t
he
pas
t – a
s w
ell
as t
he
pre
sent
legi
tim
ate
gove
rnm
ent
– c
ame
up w
ith a
num
ber
of
copin
g st
rate
gies
whic
h f
ollo
wed
adap
tive
beh
avio
ur.
Adap
tive
beh
avio
ur
is d
efin
ed a
s a
man
i-
fest
res
pon
se t
o w
ater
sca
rcit
y an
d c
an t
ake
any
one
of a
num
ber
of
form
s,
per
hap
s th
e b
est
exam
ple
bei
ng
the
un
der
tak
ing
of l
arge
wat
er p
roje
cts
to
alle
viat
e w
ater
sca
rcit
y. A
cop
ing
stra
tegy
can
be
def
ined
as
the
outp
ut
of t
he
dec
isio
n-m
akin
g el
ite,
usu
ally
in t
he
form
of
som
e co
her
ent
pol
icy
or s
et o
f
stra
tegi
es s
uch
as
wat
er d
eman
d m
anag
emen
t, w
hic
h s
eek
s to
man
age
the
wat
er s
carc
ity
in s
ome
form
or
anot
her
(Turt
on &
Ohls
son 1
999:3
). A
dap
tive
beh
avio
ur
and c
opin
g st
rate
gies
wer
e par
t of
the
dyn
amic
s of
wat
er p
olit
ics
in
the
Kunen
e R
iver
duri
ng
the
pre
viou
s ce
ntu
ry a
nd c
onti
nue
to r
emai
n a
par
t
of t
he
scen
ario
, usu
ally
tak
ing
the
form
of
larg
e-sc
ale
wat
er p
roje
cts
to s
tep
up
th
e su
pp
ly o
f w
ater
an
d e
lect
rici
ty i
n d
iffe
ren
t ar
eas
of N
amib
ia.
For
inst
ance
, at
aro
und t
he
turn
of
the
nin
etee
nth
cen
tury
, th
e G
erm
an c
olon
ists
,
Bri
nck
er a
nd G
esse
rt,
firs
t su
gges
ted d
amm
ing
the
Kunen
e R
iver
to
supply
wat
er t
o D
euts
ch S
üd
wes
tAfr
ika
. L
ater
, w
hen
Sou
th A
fric
a h
eld
sw
ay o
ver
Nam
ibia
, th
e dev
elop
men
t of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
was
under
taken
in o
rder
to
facil
itate
th
e o
vera
ll d
evelo
pm
en
t of
Nam
ibia
(C
hri
stie
19
76
:31
). D
irk
Mu
dge
, S
outh
Afr
ican
ME
C a
nd
act
ing
adm
inis
trat
or o
f N
amib
ia i
n 1
97
6,
hel
d t
he
foll
owin
g vi
ew r
egar
din
g th
e dev
elop
men
t of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
and
what
it
mea
nt
for
Nam
ibia
: ‘T
he
Kunen
e sc
hem
e is
ver
y im
por
tant,
for
one
just
can
not
dev
elop
thes
e te
rrit
orie
s w
ithou
t w
ater
and e
lect
rici
ty. ... W
e nee
d
11
1
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
the
south
ern p
art
of A
ngo
la,
and i
n p
arti
cula
r in
Ango
la’s
Cunen
e pro
vince
,
bu
t th
e R
uacan
a h
yd
ro-p
ow
er
com
ple
x w
as
als
o s
een
as
an
im
port
an
t
stra
tegi
c as
set
by
the
war
ring
par
ties
. T
his
was
hig
hli
ghte
d i
n 1
975, w
hen
the
civi
l w
ar w
as s
till
in i
ts e
arly
sta
ges.
Sou
th A
fric
a, u
nder
Pri
me
Min
iste
r Jo
hn V
orst
er,
was
ver
y re
luct
ant
at
firs
t to
bec
ome
invo
lved
in t
he
Ango
lan
1ci
vil
war
. T
he
reas
on f
or t
his
, w
as
that
Sou
th A
fric
a did
not
wan
t to
off
end P
ortu
gal
and i
nte
rnat
ional
opin
ion b
y
inte
rfer
ing
dir
ectl
y in
wh
at w
as s
till
a P
ortu
gues
e af
fair
(B
arb
er &
Bar
ratt
1990:1
91).
How
ever
, af
ter
Cuba
bec
ame
enga
ged i
n t
he
war
on t
he
side
of t
he
Ango
lan g
over
nm
ent,
Sou
th A
fric
a go
t ve
ry a
larm
ed.
Acc
ordin
g to
Bar
ber
&
Bar
ratt
(1990:1
89),
the
Cuban
fac
tor
had
a c
riti
cal
impac
t on
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
dec
isio
n t
o ge
t in
volv
ed i
n A
ngo
la.
Thro
ugh
out
the
confl
ict,
the
Cuban
iss
ue
was
cen
tral
to
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
pol
icy
on b
oth
An
gola
an
d N
amib
ia.
Sou
th
Afr
ica’
s fi
rst
inte
rven
tion
in t
he
Ango
lan c
onfl
ict
was
in A
ugu
st 1
975,
when
the
Sou
th A
fric
an A
rmy
wen
t in
to A
ngo
la t
o pro
tect
the
join
t K
unen
e R
iver
pro
ject
at
Cal
ueq
ue.
Cla
shes
bet
wee
n t
he
MP
LA
(P
opu
lar
Mov
emen
t fo
r th
e
Lib
erat
ion o
f A
ngo
la)
and U
NIT
A,
and h
aras
smen
t of
wor
ker
s at
the
dam
sit
e
by
the
MP
LA
and U
NIT
A,
dre
w S
outh
Afr
ican
tro
ops
into
Ango
la t
o oc
cupy
and
def
end
th
e d
am2
(Bar
ber
& B
arra
tt 1
99
0:1
91
; C
hri
stie
19
76
:31
). T
he
har
assm
ent
of w
orker
s le
d t
o a
hal
t of
wor
k o
n t
he
Cal
ueq
ue
Dam
and g
ave
rise
to
the
pos
sib
ilit
y th
at w
ater
to
Ow
amb
olan
d w
ould
be
cut
(Ste
enk
amp
1990:3
7).
The
acti
on b
y th
e Sou
th A
fric
an A
rmy
at t
hat
tim
e, h
ighli
ghts
the
stra
tegi
c im
por
tance
of
the
Ruac
ana-
Cal
ueq
ue
schem
e fo
r SW
A/N
amib
ia,
as
wel
l as
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
hol
d o
n t
he
terr
itor
y. I
t sh
ould
be
mad
e cl
ear
that
Sou
th
Afr
ica
inte
rven
ed i
n t
he
Ango
lan c
onfl
ict
not
only
in o
rder
to
take
pos
sess
ion
of C
alueq
ue
and t
o def
end t
he
wat
er r
esou
rces
of
SW
A/N
amib
ia.
The
reas
ons
that
Sou
th A
fric
a in
itia
lly
inte
rven
ed i
n A
ngo
la h
ad t
o do
wit
h S
outh
Afr
ica’
s
own s
ecuri
ty c
once
rns.
Thre
e as
pec
ts h
ad a
n i
mpac
t on
this
con
cern
: Sov
iet
and
Cu
ban
in
volv
emen
t, t
he
thre
at t
o N
amib
ia,
and
th
e th
reat
als
o to
th
e
Ku
nen
e R
iver
pro
ject.
Th
e u
nd
erl
yin
g m
oti
ve,
accord
ing t
o B
arb
er
an
d
Bar
ratt
(1990:1
94),
was
to
ensu
re a
non
-hos
tile
, co
oper
ativ
e A
ngo
la,
wit
hou
t
Sov
iet
infl
uen
ce,
whic
h w
ould
not
thre
aten
Pre
tori
a’s
dom
inan
ce i
n s
outh
ern
Afr
ica,
par
ticu
larl
y in
Nam
ibia
. T
he
Au
gust
19
75
Cal
ueq
ue
inci
den
t w
as
pos
sib
ly t
he
cata
lyst
for
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
invo
lvem
ent
in A
ngo
la,
bec
ause
it
gave
Sou
th A
fric
a a
foot
hol
d i
n t
hat
cou
ntr
y. H
owev
er,
it c
erta
inly
was
not
a
wat
er w
ar.
Oth
er c
ountr
ies
also
bec
ame
invo
lved
in t
he
Ango
lan c
onfl
ict
at
that
tim
e: t
he
Sov
iet
Unio
n,
Cuba,
the
Unit
ed S
tate
s, Z
ambia
and Z
aire
. T
he
Ango
lan c
onfl
ict
was
ther
efor
e a
clas
sic
exam
ple
of
a C
old W
ar p
roxy
mil
itar
y
11
0
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
dev
elop
men
t of
SW
A.
A u
tili
ty,
the
SW
A W
ater
an
d E
lect
ric
Cor
por
atio
n
(SW
AW
EK
), w
as
set
up
to d
evelo
p t
he p
ow
er
an
d w
ate
r p
ote
nti
al
of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
(O
livi
er 1
977:1
25).
In the
sam
e ye
ar, a
seco
nd a
gree
men
t w
as r
each
ed b
etw
een S
outh
Afr
ica
and P
ortu
gal
rega
rdin
g ri
vers
of
mutu
al i
nte
rest
to
bot
h A
ngo
la a
nd S
WA
—
the
agre
emen
t in
clu
ded
th
e in
volv
emen
t of
th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er s
chem
e. I
n
19
69
, a
thir
d a
gree
men
t w
as r
each
ed b
etw
een
Sou
th A
fric
a an
d P
ortu
gal
regard
ing t
he c
on
stru
cti
on
of
sup
ply
-sid
e m
an
agem
en
t p
roje
cts
on
th
e
Kunen
e R
iver
. T
his
dev
elop
men
t in
cluded
the
foll
owin
g: a
dam
at
Gov
é in
An
gola
to r
egu
late
th
e f
low
of
the K
un
en
e R
iver;
a d
am
at
Calu
eq
ue
(up
stre
am
fr
om
th
e R
uacan
a F
all
s),
for
furt
her
regu
lati
on
of
the ri
ver
in c
on
jun
cti
on
wit
h t
he r
eq
uir
em
en
ts o
f th
e p
ow
er
stati
on
to b
e b
uil
t at
Ru
acan
a;
a h
yd
ro-e
lectr
ic p
ow
er
stati
on
at
Ru
acan
a,
wit
h a
cap
acit
y t
o
gen
era
te 2
40
MW
of
ele
ctr
icit
y;
an
d a
pu
mp
ing s
tati
on
at
Calu
eq
ue f
or
irri
gati
on p
urp
oses
in O
wam
bol
and.
A f
ourt
h d
am,
at M
atal
a in
Ango
la,
was
buil
t ou
tsid
e th
e ag
reem
ent
wit
h t
he
view
to
gener
atin
g 40 M
W o
f el
ectr
icit
y.
In o
ther
wor
ds,
fou
r dam
s ar
e at
pre
sent
in e
xist
ence
on t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
(Con
ley
1995:1
4).
A P
erm
anen
t Jo
int Tec
hnic
al C
omm
issi
on (P
JTC
), w
hic
h is
stil
l fu
nct
ionin
g to
day
, w
as e
stab
lish
ed w
ithin
the
agre
emen
t to
ove
rsee
the
imp
lem
enta
tion
of
the
dif
fere
nt
pro
ject
s al
ong
the
rive
r (O
livi
er 1
97
7:1
28
;
Bes
t &
de
Bli
j 1977:3
80).
Aft
er t
he
infr
astr
uct
ura
l pro
ject
s nea
red c
omple
tion
, it
was
rea
lise
d t
hat
the
Kunen
e R
iver
had
furt
her
unta
pped
hyd
ro-e
lect
ric
pot
enti
al b
ecau
se o
f
seve
ral
cata
ract
s an
d w
ater
fall
s al
ong
its
cou
rse.
Aft
er t
he
com
ple
tion
of
the
Gov
é an
d C
alueq
ue
Dam
s, t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
was
mor
e ea
sily
reg
ula
ted,
and i
t w
as t
her
efor
e te
chnic
ally
via
ble
to
conti
nue
wit
h t
he
dev
elop
men
t of
the
pow
er p
oten
tial
of
the
rive
r dow
nst
ream
fro
m t
he
Ruac
ana
hyd
ro-p
ower
pla
nt.
In t
he
late
1970s,
SW
AW
EK
est
imat
ed t
he
futu
re p
oten
tial
of
the
rive
r
to b
e 1,5
60 M
W o
f el
ectr
icit
y, w
hic
h c
ould
be
gener
ated
at
eigh
t si
tes
alon
g
the
rive
r (O
livi
er 1
97
7:1
28
). T
his
for
ms
the
bac
kd
rop
to
curr
ent
dev
elop
-
men
tal
pla
ns
for
an
oth
er
hyd
ro-e
lectr
ic p
ow
er
stati
on
at
the s
ite o
f th
e
Epupa
wat
erfa
ll.
Imm
edia
tely
aft
er A
ngo
la g
ained
indep
enden
ce o
n 1
1 N
ovem
ber
1975,
a ci
vil
war
bro
ke
out
wit
h t
he
par
tici
pat
ion
of
bot
h i
nte
rnal
an
d e
xter
nal
forc
es.
Th
e w
ar
is s
till
ragin
g t
od
ay (
McG
ow
an
19
99
:23
3)
betw
een
th
e
govern
men
t of
An
gola
an
d
UN
ITA
(t
he
Nati
on
al
Un
ion
fo
r th
e
Tota
l
Indep
enden
ce o
f A
ngo
la).
This
has
had
a p
rofo
und i
mpac
t on
the
dyn
amic
s of
wat
er p
olit
ics
in t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
. N
ot o
nly
was
the
figh
ting
conce
ntr
ated
in
11
3
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
the
dam
was
cut.
The
wat
er p
ipel
ine
to O
wam
bol
and w
as a
lso
des
troy
ed. T
his
was
at
a ti
me
when
Ow
ambol
and w
as s
uff
erin
g a
seve
re d
rough
t, a
nd n
egot
ia-
tion
s bet
wee
n S
outh
Afr
ica,
Cuba
and A
ngo
la w
ere
hel
d a
t dif
fere
nt ve
nues
in
Lon
don
, B
razz
avil
le,
Cair
o,
Gen
eva a
nd
New
York
(D
ie B
urg
er2
9 J
un
e
1988:1
; B
arber
& B
arra
tt1990:3
42),
in a
n a
ttem
pt
to e
nd t
he
confl
ict.
Duri
ng
the
Bra
zzav
ille
Rou
nd o
f ta
lks,
Sou
th A
fric
a hel
d n
egot
iati
ons
wit
h t
he A
ngola
n d
ele
gati
on
regard
ing t
he s
tatu
s of
the K
un
en
e R
iver
schem
e. S
outh
Afr
ica
poi
nte
d o
ut
the
impor
tance
of
the
pro
ject
to
dro
ugh
t-
stri
cken
Ow
ambol
and. T
he
Ango
lan s
ide
reac
ted p
osit
ivel
y to
this
not
ion, an
d
under
took
not
to
cut
wat
er a
nd p
ower
to
Ow
ambol
and (
Die
Burg
er2
9 J
un
e
19
88
:1).
How
ever
, th
e at
tack
too
k p
lace
aft
er A
ngo
la’s
ass
ura
nce
th
at t
he
wat
er a
nd
pow
er w
ould
not
be
cut.
Th
e ex
pla
nat
ion
for
th
is c
ould
be
the
Cu
ban
fac
tor.
Th
e C
ub
ans
pro
bab
ly w
ante
d t
o in
flic
t as
mu
ch d
amag
e as
pos
sible
to
the
Sou
th A
fric
an f
orce
s an
d c
onvi
nce
d A
ngo
la t
o jo
intl
y at
tack
the
Ruac
ana-
Cal
ueq
ue
schem
e. A
t th
e ti
me
a m
ilit
ary
exper
t, M
r. H
elm
oed-
Roh
mer
Hei
tman
, dec
lare
d t
hat
the
obje
ctiv
e of
the
atta
ck o
n t
he
dam
was
to
put
it t
otal
ly o
ut
of c
omm
issi
on.
Hei
tman
added
that
‘w
hat
is
hap
pen
ing
is
that
the C
ub
an
s h
ave a
dd
ed
to t
he b
ill
[of
Sou
th A
fric
a]
for
defe
nd
ing
Nam
ibia
. P
erhap
s th
ey t
hin
k i
f th
ey k
eep o
n a
ddin
g to
it,
the
cost
wil
l bec
ome
so g
reat
that
Sou
th A
fric
a w
ill
pull
out’ (
The
Sta
r3
0 J
un
e 1
98
8:5
). T
he
assu
r-
ance
fro
m A
ngo
la n
ot t
o dis
rupt
the
schem
e, i
ndic
ated
that
as
talk
s to
end
hos
tili
ties
pro
gres
sed, so
did
ste
ps
to c
ooper
ate
rega
rdin
g th
e dev
elop
men
t of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
. It
als
o sh
owed
the
impor
tance
of
the
Ruac
ana-
Cal
ueq
ue
schem
e, n
ot o
nly
to
Nam
ibia
, but
also
to
Ango
la.
Bil
ater
al c
ooper
atio
n i
n t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
cou
ld s
tart
anew
, fo
llow
ing
the
wit
hdra
wal
of Sou
th A
fric
an a
nd
Cuban
for
ces
from
Ango
la.
How
ever
, th
e sp
ectr
e of
Ango
la’s
con
tinuin
g ci
vil
war
, an
d t
he
exte
rnal
invo
lvem
ent
of o
uts
ide
par
ties
, ad
ded
a n
ew d
imen
sion
to w
ater
res
ourc
e co
oper
atio
n i
n t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
bas
in d
uri
ng
the
1990s.
Outb
reak o
f peace a
nd r
enew
ed c
ooperati
on:
19
89
-20
00
Fol
low
ing
the
imple
men
tati
on o
f th
e U
nit
ed N
atio
ns
Res
oluti
on 4
35 a
nd t
he
elec
tion
of
the
Nam
ibia
n c
onst
ituen
t as
sem
bly
sev
en m
onth
s la
ter
(Bar
ber
&
Bar
ratt
1990:3
44),
pea
ce f
inal
ly b
roke
out
in N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la i
n A
pri
l
1989.
The
two
countr
ies
wer
e quic
kly
out
of t
he
star
ting
blo
cks
to r
ejuve
nat
e
the
Ruac
ana
hyd
ro-e
lect
ric
schem
e. I
n M
ay 1
989,
del
egat
ions
from
Ango
la
and
Nam
ibia
met
in
Win
dh
oek
to
reac
tiva
te t
he
19
69
agr
eem
ent
bet
wee
n
11
2
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
confl
ict,
fou
ght
alon
g th
e id
eolo
gica
l li
nes
of
the
Eas
t-W
est
div
ide,
wit
h t
he
Kunen
e pla
ying
a sm
all
role
. In
addit
ion,
a num
ber
of
Afr
ican
lea
der
s – w
ho
also
fea
red c
omm
unis
t ex
pan
sion
– s
uppor
ted a
nd a
ppea
led to
Sou
th A
fric
a to
get
invo
lved
in A
ngo
la.
They
incl
uded
Ken
net
h K
aunda,
Mob
utu
Ses
e-Sek
o,
Hou
ph
ouet
-Boi
gny,
Ju
liu
s N
yere
re a
nd
Leo
pol
d S
engh
or (
Bar
ber
& B
arra
tt
19
90
:18
8,
19
1-1
92
). N
o a
cti
on
took
pla
ce a
t th
e C
alu
eq
ue D
am
for
the
rem
ain
der
of
the
war
, ex
cep
t in
19
88
. H
owev
er,
it w
as a
lway
s a
sou
rce
of
fric
tion
(Ste
enkam
p 1
990:4
2).
Be
that
as
it m
ay, th
e ou
tbre
ak o
f w
ar in A
ngo
la
had
a v
ery
neg
ativ
e ef
fect
on
th
e co
oper
ativ
e en
dea
vou
rs b
etw
een
Sou
th
Afr
ica
and A
ngo
la w
ith r
egar
d t
o th
e K
unen
e R
iver
pro
ject
.
By
19
79
, S
WA
/Nam
ibia
con
sid
ered
ext
end
ing
its
elec
tric
ity
sup
ply
-
lin
es
to S
ou
th A
fric
a.
Th
e r
easo
n f
or
this
, w
as
that
the R
uacan
a h
yd
ro-
elec
tric
ity
schem
e w
as n
ot r
unnin
g at
full
cap
acit
y bec
ause
of
the
war
rag
ing
in A
ngo
la.
The
dir
ect
cause
was
that
the
Sou
th A
fric
an a
nd A
ngo
lan g
over
n-
men
ts c
ould
not
agr
ee o
n t
he
oper
atio
n o
f th
e pro
ject
, an
d w
ork o
n t
he
pro
ject
was
susp
ended
. A
ngo
la r
efuse
d t
o cl
ose
the
sluic
e ga
tes
of t
he
Ruac
ana
Dam
and a
lso
refu
sed t
o co
mple
te t
he
wor
k o
n t
he
Cal
ueq
ue
Dam
. A
s a
resu
lt,
the
pow
erp
lan
t at
Ru
acan
a co
uld
on
ly r
un
at
12
0-1
60
MW
cap
acit
y (F
ina
nci
al
Ma
il2
4A
ugu
st1
97
9:7
39
).
Th
e
pow
er
gri
d
betw
een
S
ou
th
Afr
ica
an
d
Nam
ibia
was
com
ple
ted i
n t
he
earl
y 1980s,
aft
er R
uac
ana
pro
ved i
nca
pab
le
of p
roduci
ng
elec
tric
ity
at full
cap
acit
y (T
he
Cape
Tim
es22 F
ebru
ary
1980:1
).
Th
is s
how
ed h
ow d
epen
den
t S
WA
/Nam
ibia
was
on
Sou
th A
fric
a fo
r el
ec-
tric
ity,
as
wel
l as
the
impor
tance
of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
pro
ject
to
the
countr
y at
that
tim
e. A
s th
e 1
98
0s
pro
ceed
ed,
it w
as s
till
not
pos
sib
le t
o ta
p t
he
full
pot
enti
al o
f R
uac
ana
and C
alueq
ue
bec
ause
of
the
anta
gonis
tic
rela
tion
ship
bet
wee
n S
outh
Afr
ica
and A
ngo
la. T
he
sam
e th
ing
hap
pen
ed w
ith t
he
Cab
ora
Bas
sa h
ydro
-ele
ctri
c sc
hem
e in
Moz
amb
iqu
e af
ter
the
civi
l w
ar b
rok
e ou
t
ther
e (B
usi
nes
s D
ay
23 M
arch
1987:6
). I
t is
obvi
ous
that
the
Ango
lan g
over
n-
men
t u
sed
th
e R
uac
ana
and
Cal
ueq
ue
Dam
s as
a l
ever
to
stre
ngt
hen
th
eir
pos
itio
n i
n t
he
war
aga
inst
Sou
th A
fric
a. N
ot c
omple
ting
the
pro
ject
mea
nt
that
wat
er t
o O
wam
bol
and,
and e
lect
rici
ty t
o th
e re
st o
f SW
A/N
amib
ia,
could
not
be
del
iver
ed. T
his
mad
e Sou
th A
fric
an o
per
atio
ns
in t
he
war
sli
ghtl
y dif
fi-
cult
. H
owev
er,
bec
ause
Sou
th A
fric
a ex
tended
its
pow
er g
rid n
orth
war
ds
into
SW
A/N
amib
ia, it
had
a b
alan
cing
effe
ct o
n A
ngo
la’s
lev
erag
e.
The
stra
tegi
c im
por
tance
of
the
Ruac
ana-
Cal
ueq
ue
schem
e w
as a
gain
emp
has
ised
in
Ju
ne
19
88
, w
hen
Cu
ban
an
d A
ngo
lan
for
ces
lau
nch
ed a
n
atta
ck o
n t
he
Cal
ueq
ue
Dam
, fi
rst
by
land a
nd t
hen
by
air.
Duri
ng
the
atta
ck
consi
der
able
dam
age
was
infl
icte
d o
n t
he
dam
wal
l an
d t
he
pow
er s
upply
to
11
5
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
Th
e ot
her
agr
eem
ent
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd
An
gola
cre
ated
th
e A
ngo
lan
-
Nam
ibia
n
Join
t C
om
mis
sion
of
Coop
era
tion
(A
gre
em
en
t 1
99
0b
).
Th
e
com
mis
sion
was
to d
eal
wit
h j
oin
t coop
era
tive e
nd
eavou
rs r
egard
ing a
num
ber
of is
sues
, on
e of
whic
h w
as w
ater
. T
his
com
mis
sion
was
in r
espon
se to
the
frie
ndly
rel
atio
ns
that
exi
sted
bet
wee
n A
ngo
la a
nd the
Sou
th W
est A
fric
an
Peo
ple
’s O
rgan
isat
ion (
SW
AP
O)
in t
he
year
s pri
or t
o N
amib
ia’s
indep
enden
ce
(Agr
eem
ent
1990b:2
). C
onse
quen
tly,
fiv
e w
ritt
en a
gree
men
ts o
n s
har
ed w
ater
reso
urc
es e
xist
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la,
one
of w
hic
h r
elat
es t
o ge
ner
al
coop
era
tion
betw
een
th
e t
wo c
ou
ntr
ies.
Th
ese
agre
em
en
ts b
od
e w
ell
for
pea
cefu
l in
tera
ctio
n i
n t
he
wat
er s
pher
e.
Thes
e tw
o ag
reem
ents
dem
onst
rate
not
only
the
impor
tance
of
inte
rna-
tion
al
rivers
to
N
am
ibia
’s
socio
-econ
om
ic
well
-bein
g,
bu
t als
o
to
the
rela
tion
ship
betw
een
th
e t
wo c
ou
ntr
ies.
Th
e l
ink
age b
etw
een
th
ese
tw
o
agre
emen
ts a
lso
hig
hli
ghts
th
e fa
ct t
hat
th
e ov
eral
l re
lati
onsh
ip b
etw
een
countr
ies
shar
ing
a ri
ver,
can
be
a dec
isiv
e fa
ctor
in d
eter
min
ing
the
kin
d o
f
inte
ract
ion o
ne
can e
xpec
t bet
wee
n t
hem
when
it
com
es t
o sh
arin
g th
e ri
ver’s
reso
urc
es. In
this
cas
e, N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la’s
fri
endly
rel
atio
nsh
ip m
eant th
at
coop
erat
ion i
n t
he
fiel
d o
f w
ater
res
ourc
es w
ould
fol
low
as
a m
atte
r of
cou
rse.
Wit
h t
hes
e ag
reem
ents
in p
lace
, N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la c
ould
sta
rt w
ith
copin
g st
rate
gies
in t
he
wat
er r
esou
rce
sect
or, in
ord
er t
o dev
elop
thei
r so
cio-
econ
omic
ou
tloo
k.
How
ever
, th
e w
ater
pol
itic
s in
th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er b
asin
took
a d
ram
ati
c t
urn
in
th
e e
arl
y p
art
of
the 1
99
0s.
Fir
stly
, th
e i
nte
rnal
confl
ict
in A
ngo
la t
ook a
turn
for
the
wor
se a
fter
the
bre
akdow
n o
f th
e L
usa
ka
Acc
ord,
whic
h w
as s
igned
bet
wee
n t
he
bel
lige
rent
par
ties
. Sec
ondly
, a
new
kin
d o
f ac
tor
arri
ved o
n t
he
scen
e th
at e
leva
ted t
he
dyn
amic
s of
wat
er p
olit
ics
to a
new
lev
el.
Conti
nuin
g c
onfl
ict
in A
ngola
and n
ew
kid
s on t
he b
lock
Th
is s
ecti
on l
ook
s at
th
e ef
fect
of
the
con
tin
uin
g co
nfl
ict
in A
ngo
la i
n t
he
1990s,
as
wel
l as
the
invo
lvem
ent
of n
on-s
tate
enti
ties
in f
utu
re p
roje
cts
on
the
Kunen
e R
iver
. T
he
only
wat
er p
roje
ct N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la a
re p
urs
uin
g
at p
rese
nt
is t
he
Epupa
hyd
ro-e
lect
ric
schem
e at
the
Epupa
Wat
erfa
ll.
The
two
aspec
ts i
den
tifi
ed i
n t
his
por
tion
of
the
pap
er –
the
war
in A
ngo
la a
nd
invo
lvem
ent
of n
on-s
tate
act
ors
– h
ave
had
a d
isti
nct
ive
impac
t on
the
wat
er
pol
itic
s of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
. Thes
e fa
ctor
s co
nti
nue
to infl
uen
ce the
dec
isio
ns
of t
he
two
gove
rnm
ents
reg
ardin
g th
e E
pupa
schem
e, a
nd t
hey
als
o (a
nd t
his
11
4
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
Sou
th A
fric
a an
d P
ortu
gal.
Th
e p
urp
ose
of t
he
mee
tin
g w
as t
o d
iscu
ss t
he
sett
ing
up
of
a Jo
int
Tec
hn
ical
Com
mit
tee
(JT
C)
and
to
form
ula
te p
lan
s to
repai
r th
e G
ové
Dam
, w
hic
h w
as d
amag
ed d
uri
ng
the
war
(B
usi
nes
s D
ay
23
May
1989:3
). I
n J
une
1989, a
seco
nd m
eeti
ng
in L
uan
da
set ou
t to
dis
cuss
the
dam
age
to t
he
Gov
é D
am.
For
eign
ass
ista
nce
for
the
repai
r of
the
stru
cture
was
als
o dis
cuss
ed, as
it
was
dif
ficu
lt f
or A
ngo
la t
o ra
ise
the
mon
ey i
nte
rnal
ly
bec
ause
of
the
war
(D
ie B
urg
er2
4 M
ay 1
98
9:1
5;
Die
Rep
ubl
ikei
n1
3 J
un
e
1989:3
). I
n J
uly
1989,
the
Adm
inis
trat
or G
ener
al o
f SW
A/N
amib
ia a
ppro
ved
the
Nam
ibia
n c
ompon
ent
of t
he
JTC
. T
he
JTC
met
for
a t
hir
d t
ime
that
sam
e
mon
th t
o st
art
pla
nnin
g th
e re
acti
vati
on o
f R
uac
ana
(The
Win
dhoe
k A
dve
rtis
er
12
Ju
ly 1
98
9:3
).
Aft
er
Nam
ibia
gain
ed
in
dep
en
den
ce i
n 1
99
0,
the s
tage w
as
set
for
grea
ter
coop
erat
ion
bet
wee
n t
he
two
bor
der
ing
cou
ntr
ies
wit
h r
egar
d t
o th
e
Ku
nen
e R
iver
. T
he
two
gove
rnm
ents
cou
ld s
tart
wit
h t
he
soci
o-ec
onom
ic
reco
nst
ruct
ion
of
An
gola
an
d N
amib
ia a
s th
ey s
aw f
it.
Th
e go
vern
men
t of
Nam
ibia
rea
lise
d t
hat
the
countr
y nee
ded
ele
ctri
city
to
pow
er i
ts n
um
erou
s
min
ing
oper
atio
ns
and
del
iver
em
plo
ymen
t to
its
peo
ple
. C
onse
qu
entl
y, a
nu
mb
er
of
cop
ing s
trate
gie
s w
ere
con
sid
ere
d i
n o
rder
to a
ch
ieve t
his
.
How
ever,
th
ese
cop
ing s
trate
gie
s als
o r
eq
uir
ed
wri
tten
agre
em
en
ts w
ith
Nam
ibia
’s n
eigh
bou
rs.
On 1
8 S
epte
mber
1990,
Nam
ibia
sig
ned
tw
o se
par
ate
agre
emen
ts w
ith
Ango
la c
once
rnin
g co
oper
atio
n o
ver
the
Kunen
e R
iver
, as
wel
l as
coo
per
atio
n
in g
en
era
l b
etw
een
th
e t
wo c
ou
ntr
ies.
On
e o
f th
e a
gre
em
en
ts c
on
cern
ed
reacti
vati
ng th
e th
ree p
revio
us
agre
em
en
ts b
etw
een
S
ou
th A
fric
a an
d
Por
tuga
l in
1926, 1964 a
nd 1
969 r
espec
tive
ly. T
his
agr
eem
ent
had
a n
um
ber
of p
urp
oses
:
•To
concl
ude
the
unco
mple
ted R
uac
ana-
Cal
ueq
ue
wat
er s
chem
e.
•To
esta
bli
sh a
Joi
nt O
per
atin
g A
uth
orit
y, w
hic
h w
ould
be
task
ed w
ith
en
suri
ng m
axim
um
b
en
efi
cia
l re
gu
lati
on
at
Gové fo
r op
tim
um
pow
er g
ener
atio
n a
t R
uac
ana.
The
auth
orit
y w
ould
als
o co
ntr
ol t
he
wit
hd
raw
al o
f w
ater
alo
ng
the
mid
dle
rea
ches
of
the
Ku
nen
e, a
nd
ensu
re t
he
conti
nuou
s op
erat
ion a
nd a
deq
uat
e m
ainte
nan
ce o
f th
e
wat
er p
um
pin
g w
orks
at C
alueq
ue,
as
wel
l as
the
div
ersi
on w
eir
at
Ruac
ana.
•To
allo
w t
he
Per
man
ent
Join
t Tec
hnic
al C
omm
issi
on,
esta
bli
shed
in
the
1969 a
gree
men
t, t
o ev
aluat
e th
e dev
elop
men
t of
furt
her
sch
emes
on
th
e K
un
en
e i
n o
rder
to a
ccom
mod
ate
th
e p
rese
nt
an
d f
utu
re
nee
ds
for
elec
tric
ity
in b
oth c
ountr
ies
(Agr
eem
ent
1990a:
1-2
).
11
7
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
par
tner
ship
wit
h n
eigh
bou
ring
countr
ies.
For
inst
ance
, ta
p w
ater
suppli
ed t
o
tow
ns
is n
ot p
otab
le a
nd c
hol
era
is a
n e
ver-
pre
sent
thre
at.
Vis
itor
s to
Ango
la
are
war
ned
not
to
dri
nk t
he
wat
er.
The
wat
er s
upply
is
in n
eed o
f upgr
adin
g,
as w
ater
supply
sto
ppag
es a
re a
n a
lmos
t dai
ly o
ccurr
ence
in L
uan
da.
Only
32
% o
f A
ngo
la’s
pop
ula
tion
hav
e ac
cess
to
safe
wat
er a
nd
on
ly 1
6%
hav
e
ad
eq
uate
san
itati
on
facil
itie
s (S
AD
C 1
99
9:1
27
). T
his
is
a g
rim
ou
tlook
indee
d. T
he
war
, w
hic
h i
s st
ill
ragi
ng
today
, has
not
only
had
a n
egat
ive
effe
ct
on
wate
r re
sou
rce d
evelo
pm
en
t acro
ss t
he w
hole
of
An
gola
, b
ut
is a
lso
ham
per
ing
the
pro
pos
ed E
pupa
schem
e.
Th
e d
ecis
ion
as
to w
het
her
or
not
to
bu
ild
a d
am a
t E
pu
pa
Fal
ls o
r
Bay
nes
Mou
nta
in l
ies
wit
h t
he
Nam
ibia
-An
gola
Per
man
ent
Join
t Tec
hn
ical
Com
mis
sion
(P
JTC
). D
uri
ng
1998 a
nd 1
999,
num
erou
s m
eeti
ngs
of
the
PJT
C
– o
rgan
ised
to
dis
cuss
the
pro
pos
ed p
roje
cts
on t
he
Kunen
e – h
ad t
o be
pos
t-
pon
ed b
ecau
se o
f th
e se
curi
ty s
ituat
ion i
n A
ngo
la (
Inte
rnet
: T
he
Nam
ibia
n2
5
Jun
e 1
99
8).
Th
e w
ar w
as n
ot t
he
only
fac
tor
del
ayin
g th
e d
ecis
ion
on
th
e
Ep
up
a D
am.
Th
e P
JTC
had
to
pu
t of
f a
dec
isio
n a
bou
t th
e p
roje
ct i
n J
uly
1998,
afte
r it
fou
nd t
hat
the
feas
ibil
ity
study
on t
he
pro
ject
was
inco
mple
te
(In
tern
et:
Th
e N
am
ibia
n1
0 J
uly
19
98
). I
n 1
99
9,
the
PJT
C d
ecid
ed t
hat
a
mee
ting
shou
ld b
e hel
d i
n 2
000 t
o m
ake
a dec
isio
n o
n t
he
Epupa
pro
ject
. T
he
pos
tpon
emen
t of
the
dec
isio
n c
ause
d a
lot
of fr
ust
rati
on o
n the
Nam
ibia
n s
ide,
bec
ause
if
the
Epupa
Dam
is
furt
her
del
ayed
, th
e co
st o
f th
e dam
cou
ld r
ise
and m
ake
it u
npro
fita
ble
. A
num
ber
of
pro
ject
s, l
ike
the
Hai
b c
opper
min
e
an
d S
corp
ion
zin
c m
ine,
cou
ld a
lso b
e a
ffecte
d,
an
d c
on
seq
uen
tly,
th
e
long-
term
eco
nom
ic o
utl
ook o
f N
amib
ia (
Inte
rnet
: T
he
Nam
ibia
n23 A
ugu
st
19
99
). T
he
war
in
An
gola
has
th
eref
ore
an i
nd
irec
t im
pac
t on
Nam
ibia
’s
soci
o-ec
onom
ic p
rosp
erit
y. A
t th
e sa
me
tim
e, N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la h
ave
not
seen
eye
-to-
eye
on t
he
site
s of
th
e p
rop
osed
dam
. A
ngo
la f
avou
rs B
ayn
es
Mou
nta
in,
and
Nam
ibia
th
e E
pu
pa
Fal
ls s
ite.
Th
e A
ngo
lan
s’ a
rgu
men
t is
that
if
a dam
get
s buil
t at
the
Bay
nes
sit
e, t
hen
it
wil
l m
ean t
hat
the
Gov
é
Dam
, w
hic
h w
as d
amag
ed i
n t
he
civi
l w
ar,
could
be
renov
ated
. T
his
in t
urn
wou
ld b
rin
g m
uch
-need
ed
develo
pm
en
t to
An
gola
’s H
uam
bo p
rovin
ce.
Nam
ibia
, how
ever
, w
ould
lik
e to
see
a d
am b
uil
t at
Epupa.
The
Bay
nes
sit
e,
they
arg
ue,
is
too
smal
l, d
espit
e it
s en
viro
nm
enta
l an
d s
ocia
l ad
vanta
ges.
The
Epupa
site
is
rega
rded
as
a pre
stig
e si
te b
y N
amib
ia (
Inte
rnet
: T
he
Nam
ibia
n
13 J
uly
1998).
A d
am a
t E
pupa
wil
l al
so b
e la
rger
than
one
at B
aynes
. T
he
Ep
up
a D
am
wil
l b
e t
he t
hir
d-l
arg
est
dam
in
Afr
ica,
an
d t
his
hold
s th
e
pro
mis
e of
much
sta
tus
and p
rest
ige
for
Nam
ibia
.
In S
ep
tem
ber
19
98
, fi
erc
e f
igh
tin
g b
etw
een
UN
ITA
an
d A
ngola
n
11
6
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
is e
spec
iall
y tr
ue
of t
he
non
-sta
te e
nti
ties
) ca
st t
he
inte
ract
ion o
f th
e K
unen
e
hyd
ropol
itic
al g
ame
in a
dif
fere
nt
ligh
t.
Angola
’s o
ngoin
g c
ivil w
ar
Aft
er t
he
end
of
the
Col
d W
ar,
the
con
flic
t in
An
gola
see
med
to
be
on t
he
wan
e an
d t
he
Bic
esse
Acc
ords
wer
e si
gned
by
the
war
ring
Ango
lan p
arti
es
in 1
99
1.
How
ever,
th
e A
ccord
s w
ere
never
full
y i
mp
lem
en
ted
becau
se
UN
ITA
ch
all
en
ged
th
e r
esu
lt o
f th
e p
resi
den
tial
ele
cti
on
s h
eld
in
19
92
(Bou
lden
& E
dm
on
ds
19
99
:13
0).
Th
e s
econ
d p
hase
of
An
gola
’s c
on
flic
t
star
ted a
t th
e en
d o
f O
ctob
er 1
992 a
nd l
aste
d o
ffic
iall
y unti
l 20 N
ovem
ber
1994, w
hen
the
Lusa
ka
Pro
toco
l w
as s
igned
in t
he
Zam
bia
n c
apit
al o
n b
ehal
f
of P
resi
den
t Jo
sé E
du
ard
o d
os S
anto
s an
d D
r Jo
nas
Sav
imb
i. N
egot
iati
ons
regard
ing th
e P
roto
col
had
ta
ken
ju
st over
a year,
fo
llow
ing U
NIT
A’s
ann
oun
cem
ent
of a
un
ilat
eral
cea
sefi
re i
n A
bid
jan
on
14
Sep
tem
ber
19
93
(Cle
ary
1999:1
45).
When
the
ceas
efir
e bro
ke
dow
n,
renew
ed f
ighti
ng
erupte
d b
etw
een t
he
FA
A (
Forç
as
Arm
ad
as
An
gola
na
s) a
nd
UN
ITA
. T
he g
overn
men
t ig
nore
d
UN
ITA
’s t
erm
inat
ion
of
hos
tili
ties
, d
isre
gard
ed t
he
ensu
ing
pea
ce n
egot
ia-
tion
s in
Lusa
ka
and d
eplo
yed n
ew w
eapon
s an
d b
ette
r tr
ained
unit
s ag
ainst
citi
es h
eld b
y U
NIT
A (
Cle
ary
1999:1
46).
The
renew
ed f
ighti
ng
had
a d
evas
-
tati
ng
effe
ct o
n t
he
econ
omy
of A
ngo
la.
As
Cle
ary
(1999:1
46)
put
it:
‘What
litt
le w
as l
eft
of A
ngo
la’s
eco
nom
y af
ter
alm
ost
16
yea
rs o
f ci
vil
war
was
des
troy
ed b
etw
een
19
92
an
d t
he
end
of
19
94
. T
he
GD
P d
ecli
ned
by
70
%
over
thre
e ye
ars;
tot
al e
xter
nal
deb
t, a
s per
centa
ge o
f G
DP,
alm
ost
quad
ru-
ple
d, as
did
mil
itar
y sp
endin
g, w
hil
e so
cial
exp
endit
ure
was
hal
ved’. N
ot o
nly
is A
ngola
su
fferi
ng f
rom
severe
econ
om
ic d
islo
cati
on
, b
ut
a l
an
dm
ine
pro
ble
m a
lso i
ncre
ase
s th
e s
eri
ou
sness
of
the c
ou
ntr
y’s
econ
om
ic w
oes.
Appro
xim
atel
y fi
ve t
o ei
ght
mil
lion
min
es w
ere
pla
nte
d a
cros
s th
e co
untr
y,
but
nob
ody
know
s how
much
lan
d i
s af
fect
ed (
Bou
lden
1999:1
31).
The
land-
min
e an
d e
conom
ic p
roble
ms
of A
ngo
la c
erta
inly
hav
e a
neg
ativ
e ef
fect
on
the
countr
y’s
wat
er r
esou
rce
man
agem
ent
stra
tegi
es.
The
econ
omic
sit
uat
ion
mak
es i
t dif
ficu
lt f
or A
ngo
la t
o fi
nd m
oney
to
launch
new
wat
er d
evel
opm
ent
pro
ject
s, n
ot o
nly
in
tern
ally
, b
ut
also
for
in
tern
atio
nal
pro
ject
s. L
and
min
es
mak
e it
ver
y dif
ficu
lt f
or t
he
agri
cult
ura
l se
ctor
to
be
dev
elop
ed t
o it
s fu
lles
t
pot
enti
al.
Con
seq
uen
tly,
ad
apti
ve c
apac
ity
is a
t it
s lo
wes
t le
vel
and
cop
ing
stra
tegi
es c
ann
ot g
et o
ff t
he
grou
nd
— e
xcep
t p
erh
aps
if A
ngo
la g
oes
into
11
9
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
The r
ole
and involv
em
ent
of
non-s
tate
acto
rs
Giv
ing
an i
n-d
epth
anal
ysis
of
the
role
and i
nvo
lvem
ent
of n
on-s
tate
enti
ties
,
and t
hei
r im
pac
t in
the
pol
itic
s of
the
Kunen
e R
iver
, is
bey
ond t
he
scop
e of
this
pap
er.
How
ever
, a
bri
ef o
verv
iew
is
pos
sible
. A
fter
var
ious
inte
rnat
ional
and l
ocal
non
-gov
ernm
enta
l or
ganis
atio
ns
bec
ame
invo
lved
in t
he
pol
itic
s of
the
pro
pos
ed E
pupa
Dam
in t
he
1990s,
a d
isti
nct
ive
inte
ract
ion d
evel
oped
betw
een
th
ese
non
-sta
te e
nti
ties,
oth
er
inte
rnati
on
al
non
-govern
men
tal
orga
nis
atio
ns
(IN
GO
s) a
nd
sov
erei
gn g
over
nm
ents
. In
th
is s
ecti
on o
f th
e
pap
er
the d
iffe
ren
t ty
pes
of
inte
racti
on
wil
l b
e h
igh
ligh
ted
. T
he c
on
tact
bet
wee
n t
he
vari
ous
acto
rs m
ust
be
seen
in t
he
ligh
t of
res
ourc
e use
per
cep-
tion
. R
esou
rce
use
per
cepti
on i
s th
e per
ceiv
ed u
tili
sati
on o
f a
reso
urc
e w
ithin
a dis
tinct
ive
min
dse
t. I
t is
bec
ause
of
dif
fere
nt
reso
urc
e use
per
cepti
ons
that
the
engi
nee
r an
d t
he
ecol
ogis
t or
envi
ronm
enta
list
do
not
see
eye
-to-
eye
on
larg
e-sc
ale
sup
ply
-sid
e m
anag
emen
t p
roje
cts.
Th
ese
dif
feri
ng
per
cep
tion
s
bri
ng
to t
he
fore
th
e n
atu
re a
nd
deg
ree
of i
nte
ract
ion
bet
wee
n N
GO
s an
d
gove
rnm
ents
wit
h r
egar
d t
o th
e im
ple
men
tati
on o
f la
rge-
scal
e su
pp
ly-s
ide
man
agem
ent
pro
ject
s.
For
the
purp
oses
of
this
pap
er, th
e te
rm ‘n
on-g
over
nm
enta
l or
ganis
atio
n’
(NG
O)
wil
l be
use
d i
nte
rchan
geab
ly w
ith t
hat
of
‘in
tere
st g
roup’. T
he
grow
th
and s
ignif
ican
ce o
f N
GO
s, p
arti
cula
rly
wit
h h
um
an r
ights
and e
nvi
ronm
enta
l
agen
das
, hav
e bee
n v
ery
stro
ng
char
acte
rist
ics
of t
he
chan
ging
inte
rnat
ional
dim
ensi
on o
f w
ater
pol
itic
s duri
ng
the
earl
y par
t of
the
twen
ty-f
irst
cen
tury
(Turt
on &
Mei
ssner
2000).
Thes
e non
-sta
te e
nti
ties
can
lau
nch
org
anis
ed a
nd
dete
rmin
ed
op
posi
tion
to a
dam
pro
ject
an
yw
here
in
th
e w
orl
d,
an
d c
an
elev
ate
the
pro
ject
fro
m a
nat
ional
pol
itic
al i
ssue
to a
n i
nte
rnat
ional
ques
tion
.
This
is
the
case
in r
espec
t of
the
pro
pos
ed E
pupa
hyd
ro-p
ower
sch
eme.
Thes
e
non
-sta
te e
nti
ties
ran
ge f
rom
envi
ronm
enta
l, h
um
an r
ights
and a
nth
ropol
og-
ical
NG
Os
to g
rass
root
s in
tere
st g
rou
ps
in N
amib
ia.
Bef
ore
dis
cuss
ing
the
enga
gem
ent
of t
hes
e non
-sta
te a
ctor
s, i
t is
nec
essa
ry t
o fi
rst
det
erm
ine
what
an N
GO
or
inte
rest
gro
up i
s, a
nd w
hat
rol
e or
funct
ion t
hey
fulf
il i
n s
ocie
ty.
Inte
rest
gro
up
s or
NG
Os,
lik
e p
olit
ical
par
ties
, fo
rm t
he
maj
or l
ink
bet
wee
n t
he
citi
zen a
nd g
over
nm
ent
in a
soc
iety
(H
eyw
ood 1
997:2
52).
They
are
also
a d
isti
ngu
ishin
g fe
ature
of
dem
ocra
tic
regi
mes
(Sad
ie 1
998:2
80).
The
linkag
e bet
wee
n inte
rest
gro
ups
or N
GO
s an
d g
over
nm
ent co
mes
to
the
fore
in
the
def
init
ion o
f an
inte
rest
gro
up.
Inte
rest
gro
up
s fo
rm p
art
of c
ivil
soc
iety
,
and c
an b
e def
ined
as
the
wid
e ra
nge
of
volu
nta
ry a
ssoc
iati
ons
that
occ
upy
the
bro
ad t
erra
in b
etw
een
th
e in
div
idu
al a
nd
sta
te.
Th
ey a
re t
he
pri
mar
y
11
8
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
gove
rnm
ent pol
ice
forc
es b
roke
out at
the
Gov
é D
am. T
he
figh
ting
was
cau
sed
by a
dis
pu
te o
ver
con
trol
of
the i
nst
all
ati
on
(In
tern
et:
Th
e N
am
ibia
n1
1
Sep
tem
ber
1998).
The
bat
tle
at G
ové
Dam
show
s th
at tak
ing
contr
ol o
f a
wat
er
inst
alla
tion
is
only
one
stra
tegy
whic
h b
elli
gere
nt
par
ties
use
to
gain
adva
n-
tage
in a
n a
rmed
con
flic
t. W
hat
ever
the
purp
ose
of t
he
bat
tle,
it
has
cer
tain
ly
had
a s
ever
e im
pac
t on
a f
utu
re d
am a
t E
pupa,
as
wel
l as
Ango
la’s
arg
um
ents
for
a dam
at
Bay
nes
.
Ther
e se
ems
to b
e a
linkag
e bet
wee
n t
he
dam
aged
Gov
é D
am,
the
pos
t-
pon
emen
t of
th
e d
ecis
ion
ab
out
bu
ild
ing
a d
am a
t E
pu
pa
or B
ayn
es,
and
Nam
ibia
’s s
ud
den
in
volv
emen
t in
th
e A
ngo
lan
con
flic
t in
Dec
emb
er 1
99
9.
Th
e N
amib
ian
Pre
sid
ent,
Sam
Nu
jom
a, s
aid
th
at N
amib
ia w
ould
bac
k t
he
An
gola
n g
over
nm
ent
in i
ts c
amp
aign
aga
inst
UN
ITA
. T
he
reas
on f
or t
his
dec
isio
n i
s th
e lo
ng-
term
fri
end
ly r
elat
ion
ship
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd
th
e
An
gola
n g
over
nm
ent
(In
tern
et:
Ma
il &
Gu
ard
ian
15
Dec
emb
er 1
99
9).
It
seem
s as
thou
gh t
he
coop
erat
ion b
etw
een N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la r
egar
din
g th
e
war
aga
inst
UN
ITA
, is
pay
-bac
k f
or t
he
suppor
t A
ngo
la s
how
ed S
WA
PO
in i
ts
stru
ggle
aga
inst
Sou
th A
fric
a an
d U
NIT
A i
n t
he
1970s
and 8
0s.
It
could
als
o
bec
ome
a bar
gain
ing
chip
for
Nam
ibia
in t
he
upco
min
g dec
isio
n o
n t
he
site
for
the
pro
pos
ed d
am o
n t
he
Kunen
e. A
lso,
the
figh
ting
repor
tedly
occ
urr
ed
more
to t
he w
est
, aw
ay f
rom
th
e K
un
en
e R
iver
an
d i
n t
he r
egio
n o
f th
e
Ok
avan
go R
iver
. It
cou
ld h
ave
bee
n a
str
ateg
y b
y N
amib
ia t
o co
nta
in t
he
figh
ting
in t
hat
are
a, a
nd k
eep i
t aw
ay f
rom
the
Kunen
e bas
in a
nd i
ts s
trat
egic
wat
er i
nst
alla
tion
s. S
hou
ld U
NIT
A g
ain g
round a
gain
and p
roje
ct t
he
confl
ict
tow
ard
s th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er b
asin
, it
cou
ld s
pel
l tr
oub
le f
or a
ny
pro
pos
ed
pro
ject
on
th
e r
iver.
Nam
ibia
’s a
cti
on
s in
An
gola
an
d t
he D
em
ocra
tic
Rep
ubli
c of
Con
go (
DR
C)
do
not
go
unnot
iced
by
the
inte
rnat
ional
com
mu-
nit
y. I
f don
or a
genci
es p
erce
ive
the
finan
cing
of a
dam
on t
he
Kunen
e as
a
seve
re r
isk
, N
amib
ia c
ould
fin
d i
t ve
ry d
iffi
cult
to
secu
re m
oney
for
th
e
pro
ject.
Ow
ing t
o N
am
ibia
’s p
erc
eiv
ed
negati
ve i
mage,
govern
men
ts o
f
such
don
or i
nst
itu
tion
s co
uld
als
o in
flu
ence
th
em n
ot t
o su
pp
ly m
oney
to
Nam
ibia
.
The
war
in A
ngo
la w
ill,
as
long
as i
t co
nti
nues
, hav
e an
im
pac
t on
any
inte
rnat
ional
pro
ject
on t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
. H
owev
er, m
ilit
ary
confr
onta
tion
is
not
the
on
ly
typ
e
of
inte
racti
on
th
at
infl
uen
ces
the
hyd
ro-p
oli
tics
in
the
Kunen
e R
iver
. In
the
mid
-1990s,
the
dyn
amic
s of
the
hyd
ropol
itic
al g
ame
in t
he K
un
en
e R
iver
took
on
a n
ew
dim
en
sion
wit
h t
he a
pp
eara
nce o
f a
dif
fere
nt
kin
d o
f acto
r —
th
e n
on
-govern
men
tal
org
an
isati
on
(N
GO
) or
inte
rest
gro
up.
12
1
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
asked
the
IRN
to
get
invo
lved
in t
he
deb
ate.
Sin
ce t
hen
, a
num
ber
of
inte
rna-
tion
al N
GO
s, e
ach
wit
h d
iffe
ren
t ag
end
as,
hav
e b
ecom
e em
bro
iled
in
th
e
Epupa
Dam
deb
ate,
tog
ether
wit
h l
ocal
gro
ups.
At
the
loca
l le
vel,
the
Him
ba
com
mu
nit
y or
gan
ised
th
e E
pu
pa
Act
ion
Com
mit
tee
(EA
C)
in 1
99
7.
Oth
er
Nam
ibia
n i
nte
rest
gro
ups
are:
the
Leg
al A
ssis
tance
Cen
tre
(LA
C),
Ear
thli
fe
Afr
ica-N
am
ibia
, th
e
Nati
on
al
Socie
ty
for
Hu
man
R
igh
ts
(NS
HR
) an
d
Gre
ensp
ace.
The
Dem
ocra
tic
Turn
hal
le A
llia
nce
(D
TA
), t
he
mai
n o
ppos
itio
n
par
ty i
n N
amib
ia, is
als
o in
volv
ed i
n t
he
deb
ate
abou
t th
e pro
pos
ed d
am. T
he
most
nota
ble
in
tern
ati
on
al
inte
rest
gro
up
s are
: th
e I
RN
, E
nvir
on
men
tal
Def
ence
(E
D),
6th
e A
ssoc
iati
on f
or I
nte
rnat
ion
al W
ater
an
d F
ores
t S
tud
ies
(FIV
AS
) fr
om
Norw
ay,
Su
rviv
al
Inte
rnati
on
al
from
th
e U
K,
an
d a
larg
e
nu
mb
er
of
NG
Os
from
S
ou
th A
fric
a,
most
n
ota
bly
th
e E
nvir
on
men
tal
Mon
itor
ing
Gro
up (
EM
G),
Ear
thli
fe A
fric
a (E
LA
) an
d t
he
Sou
ther
n A
fric
an
Riv
ers
Ass
ocia
tion
(SA
RA
). I
n S
outh
Afr
ica,
the
Gre
en P
arty
als
o th
rew
its
wei
ght
beh
ind t
he
anti
-dam
lob
by.
The
NG
Os
wor
k t
oget
her
in a
sor
t of
loo
se
coal
itio
n a
nd h
ave
conta
ct w
ith e
ach o
ther
on a
reg
ula
r bas
is (
Lor
i P
otti
nge
r,
per
son
al c
omm
un
icat
ion
). T
he
inte
rest
gro
up
s ar
e n
ot m
erel
y ag
ain
st t
he
pro
pos
ed d
ams
for
the
sake
of o
ppos
itio
n a
lone.
Alt
ernat
ives
hav
e al
so b
een
pro
pos
ed.
Thes
e in
clude
win
d a
nd s
olar
pow
er,
the
Kudu G
as t
her
mal
pow
er
stat
ion
wit
h d
esal
inat
ion
cap
abil
itie
s (M
eiss
ner
19
99
:82
), a
nd
th
e im
por
ta-
tion
of
elec
tric
ity
from
Sou
th A
fric
a, w
hic
h,
it i
s ar
gued
, w
ould
be
chea
per
than
the
Epupa
hyd
ro-p
ower
sch
eme.
The
centr
al i
ssue
that
is
arti
cula
ted i
s
the
pli
ght
of t
he
Him
ba
peo
ple
, sh
ould
the
dam
be
const
ruct
ed.
Th
ere
is a
mix
ture
of
con
flic
t an
d c
oop
erat
ion
bet
wee
n t
he
inte
rest
grou
ps
and a
ctor
s dir
ectl
y an
d i
ndir
ectl
y in
volv
ed i
n t
he
pro
pos
ed p
roje
cts.
The
tact
ics
of t
hes
e N
GO
s al
so v
ary
grea
tly,
wit
h d
irec
t per
sonal
com
munic
a-
tion
an
d i
nd
irect
con
tact
bein
g u
sed
at
the s
am
e t
ime.
Stu
dyin
g t
heir
stra
tegi
es a
nd t
acti
cs w
ill
tell
us
mor
e ab
out
the
nat
ure
and d
egre
e of
inte
rac-
tion
bet
wee
n t
he
acto
rs.
In J
un
e 1
99
6,
the e
nvir
on
men
tal
lob
by p
ut
a h
old
on
th
e p
rop
ose
d
R2-b
illi
on E
pupa
Dam
. T
he
const
ruct
ion o
f th
e pro
pos
ed d
am w
as d
elay
ed
unti
l an
envi
ronm
enta
l im
pac
t as
sess
men
t co
uld
be
conduct
ed,
the
resu
lts
of
whic
h w
ere
publi
shed
in 1
997 (
Fin
anci
al
21 J
une
1996:7
3).
In O
ctob
er
1996,
a publi
c hea
ring
was
hel
d i
n t
he
Nam
ibia
n c
apit
al,
Win
dhoe
k,
wher
e
the
Him
ba
com
mu
nit
y vo
iced
th
eir
opp
osit
ion
to
the
dam
. T
he
issu
es t
hey
rais
ed t
o su
bst
anti
ate
thei
r ob
ject
ion w
ere,
inte
r ali
a,
that
the
land t
hey
are
livi
ng
on w
ould
be
lost
, as
wel
l as
the
grav
es o
f th
eir
ance
stor
s an
d the
graz
ing
lan
d f
or t
hei
r ca
ttle
. T
he
Him
ba
peo
ple
wer
e re
pre
sen
ted
by
thei
r ch
ief,
12
0
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
mea
ns
by
whic
h c
itiz
ens
can a
rtic
ula
te t
hei
r in
tere
sts
to b
oth t
he
stat
e an
d
soci
ety
at lar
ge (B
aldo
& S
ibth
orpe
1998:6
4).
All
in a
ll, th
ese
grou
ps
hav
e but
one
purp
ose,
and t
hat
is
to i
nfl
uen
ce t
he
pol
itic
al d
ecis
ion-m
akin
g pro
cess
(Bal
l 1
98
8:9
6),
wh
ile
rem
ain
ing
apar
t fr
om i
t (D
uve
rger
19
72
:10
1).
NG
Os’
busi
nes
s is
the
arti
cula
tion
of
cert
ain i
nte
rest
s. I
n t
his
cas
e, i
t is
the
Epupa
Dam
pro
ject
and t
he
impac
t it
wil
l hav
e on
aff
ecte
d c
omm
unit
ies,
as
wel
l as
Nam
ibia
in g
ener
al.
To
arti
cula
te t
he
inte
rest
s of
cit
izen
s, i
nte
rest
gro
ups
hav
e a
wid
e ra
nge
of t
acti
cs a
nd
pol
itic
al s
trat
egie
s at
th
eir
dis
pos
al.
Dif
fere
nt
grou
ps
hav
e
dif
fere
nt
char
acte
rist
ics
wh
ich
pro
du
ce a
var
iety
of
stra
tegi
es o
f in
flu
ence
(Whit
eley
& W
inya
rd 1
987:8
5).
Tw
o ty
pes
of
infl
uen
cing
tech
niq
ues
can
be
dis
cern
ed
: d
irect
pers
on
al
com
mu
nic
ati
on
wit
h d
ecis
ion
-mak
ers
at
the
nat
ional
and i
nte
rnat
ional
lev
el; an
d i
ndir
ect
conta
ct v
ia t
he
med
ia, as
wel
l as
pu
bli
c op
inio
n.
Str
ateg
ies
of d
irec
t co
mm
un
icat
ion
in
clu
de
dep
uta
tion
s to
pol
itic
ians,
mee
tings
wit
h d
iffe
rent
acto
rs,
per
sonal
pre
senta
tion
s of
res
earc
h
resu
lts
and
tes
tim
onie
s at
hea
rin
gs.
Th
ese
tech
niq
ues
are
fou
nd
to
be
the
mos
t ef
fect
ive
(Sad
ie 1
998:2
84)
for
lobbyi
ng
purp
oses
. A
lthou
gh s
omet
imes
by
pro
xy3, li
tiga
tion
can
als
o fa
ll u
nder
this
typ
e of
con
tact
, an
d c
an b
e ju
st a
s
effe
ctiv
e (H
jelm
ar 1
996:6
9).
Les
s ef
fect
ive
met
hod
s of
im
per
sonal
com
muni-
cati
on a
re l
ette
rs,
tele
gram
s an
d p
ubli
c re
lati
ons
cam
pai
gns.
Tac
tics
that
fal
l
under
indir
ect
com
munic
atio
n i
ncl
ude
pet
itio
ns,
pro
test
s, s
trik
es a
nd d
emon
-
stra
tion
s (s
omet
imes
vio
len
t, s
omet
imes
pea
cefu
l) a
gain
st c
ivil
ob
edie
nce
(Sad
ie 1
998:2
85).
Mos
t of
thes
e ta
ctic
s ar
e bei
ng
use
d b
y in
tere
st g
roups
in
thei
r fi
ght
agai
nst
the
pro
pos
ed E
pupa
hyd
ro-e
lect
ric
dam
.
Tw
o ty
pes
of
NG
Os
are
invo
lved
in
th
e p
olit
ics
of t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
:
thos
e th
at o
per
ate
wit
hin
the
nat
ional
sta
tus
quo
(Sh
eph
erd
19
96
:42
4),
an
d
thos
e th
at o
per
ate
acro
ss i
nte
rnat
ional
bor
der
s. T
he
latt
er a
re c
har
acte
rise
d
by
orga
nis
ed a
ctiv
itie
s oc
curr
ing
sim
ult
aneo
usl
y in
a n
um
ber
of
cou
ntr
ies,
and b
y ob
ject
ives
that
do
not
rel
ate
to t
he
inte
rest
s w
ithin
any
give
n t
erri
tory
(Hol
sti
1995:6
1).
It
seem
s as
if
the
latt
er g
roup o
f N
GO
s is
the
mos
t vo
cif-
erou
s in
its
cam
pai
gn a
gain
st t
he
pro
pos
ed E
pupa
Dam
.
Non
-gov
ern
men
tal
orga
nis
atio
ns
bec
ame
invo
lved
in
th
e E
pu
pa
Dam
deb
ate
in 1
995,
afte
r an
anth
ropol
ogis
t, C
hri
sta
Col
eman
(w
ho
wor
ked
wit
h
the
Him
ba
in t
hat
reg
ion
) h
igh
ligh
ted
th
e p
ligh
t of
th
e H
imb
a, s
hou
ld t
he
Ep
up
a d
am
be c
on
stru
cte
d4
(In
tern
et:
Cole
man
19
95
). T
he r
eacti
on
of
Col
eman
in r
aisi
ng
the
awar
enes
s of
the
Him
ba
was
, in
fac
t, t
he
init
ial
trig
ger
even
t th
at s
et t
he
bal
l ro
llin
g. A
sec
ond t
rigg
er e
vent
occu
rred
when
Ear
thli
fe
Afr
ica-
Nam
ibia
(E
LA
) co
nta
cted
the
Inte
rnat
ional
Riv
ers
Net
wor
k (IR
N)5
and
12
3
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
han
ded
in
by
bot
h t
he
IRN
an
d t
he
EA
C,
wh
ich
poi
nte
d o
ut
the
neg
ativ
e
effe
cts
of t
he
pro
pos
ed d
am o
n t
he
Him
ba.
The
IRN
rel
ease
d a
pre
ss s
tate
-
men
t in
wh
ich
th
ey r
epor
ted
on
th
e fe
asib
ilit
y st
ud
y in
gen
eral
. T
he
pre
ss
rele
ase
, ech
oin
g t
he c
on
clu
sion
s of
the e
xp
ert
s w
ho r
evie
wed
th
e s
tud
y,
stat
ed t
hat
th
e in
vest
igat
ion
was
‘ri
dd
led
wit
h i
nco
rrec
t co
ncl
usi
ons,
fal
se
assu
mpti
ons
and m
issi
ng
dat
a’,
and t
hat
this
mea
nt
‘that
it
cannot
be
use
d a
s
a b
asis
for
a w
ell-
info
rmed
dec
isio
n o
n t
he
pro
ject
’ (I
nte
rnet
: In
tern
atio
nal
Riv
ers
Net
wor
k 1
99
8).
Th
e W
orld
Ban
k a
nd
th
e E
uro
pea
n U
nio
n a
lso
had
stro
ng
rese
rvat
ions
abou
t th
e vi
abil
ity
of t
he
pro
ject
(In
tern
et:
The
Nam
ibia
n
1 J
une
19
98
).
One
of t
he
mos
t pec
uli
ar r
espon
ses
from
the
Nam
ibia
n g
over
nm
ent
wer
e
the
gift
s of
a f
our-
whee
l dri
ve ‘b
akkie
’ (pic
k-u
p t
ruck
) an
d a
spee
d b
oat
to t
he
Him
ba
com
munit
y. W
het
her
or
not
thes
e don
atio
ns
wer
e a
stra
tegy
on the
par
t
of g
over
nm
ent
to r
ever
se H
imba
oppos
itio
n t
o th
e E
pupa
deb
ate,
is
a m
atte
r
for
deb
ate.
If
they
wer
e, t
hey
did
not
ser
ve t
hei
r purp
ose:
the
Him
ba
com
mu-
nit
y re
iter
ated
thei
r an
ti-d
am s
tance
aft
er t
he
gift
s w
ere
rece
ived
(In
tern
et:
The
Nam
ibia
n2 J
une
1998; 2 J
uly
1998).
Gif
ts w
ere
not
the
only
gov
ernm
ent
resp
onse
to
NG
Os
invo
lved
in
th
e E
pu
pa
deb
ate.
In
Ju
ne
19
98
, P
resi
den
t
Sam
Nujo
ma
launch
ed a
sca
thin
g at
tack
on t
he
oppon
ents
of
the
Epupa
Dam
.
He
also
war
ned
for
eign
nat
ional
s in
Nam
ibia
who
‘dis
turb
ed t
he
pea
ce’, t
hat
they
wou
ld b
e ‘d
epor
ted’, ‘
got
rid o
ff’
or ‘
dea
lt w
ith’, w
ith ‘
imm
edia
te e
ffec
t’.
Th
e L
AC
cam
e u
nd
er
severe
cri
ticis
m f
rom
th
e P
resi
den
t (I
nte
rnet:
Th
e
Nam
ibia
n22 J
une
1998).
This
rea
ctio
n g
ives
som
e id
ea o
f th
e st
rain
ed r
ela-
tion
s b
etw
een
th
e
govern
men
t an
d
the
NG
Os,
an
d
als
o
dem
on
stra
tes
Nam
ibia
’s i
nsi
sten
ce o
n g
oin
g a
head
wit
h E
pu
pa.
Th
e u
ttera
nce o
f th
e
Pre
siden
t w
as t
he
spar
k i
n t
he
pow
der
keg
whic
h u
nle
ashed
a f
ierc
e deb
ate
in
Nam
ibia
. O
ther
NG
Os
and t
he
DTA
def
ended
the
LA
C.
The
Pre
siden
t w
as
accu
sed
of
raci
sm,
and
of
thre
aten
ing
pea
ce a
nd
sta
bil
ity
in t
he
cou
ntr
y.
SW
AP
O p
arty
mem
ber
s an
d o
ther
pol
itic
al a
llie
s d
efen
din
g th
e P
resi
den
t
rece
ived
sim
ilar
acc
usa
tion
s (I
nte
rnet
: T
he
Nam
ibia
n2
3 J
un
e 1
99
8).
In M
arc
h 1
99
9,
ren
ew
ed
cri
ticis
m w
as
levell
ed
at
the g
overn
men
t
con
cern
ing th
e E
pu
pa D
am
. T
his
ti
me th
e cri
tiq
ue cam
e fr
om
K
asi
ta
Mb
uru
ra,
Reg
ion
al C
oun
cill
or f
or t
he
Ep
up
a co
nst
itu
ency
. H
is a
rgu
men
ts
wer
e th
at E
pupa
had
pot
enti
al f
or t
ouri
sm,
min
ing
and a
gric
ult
ure
, but
that
the g
overn
men
t h
ad
not
un
dert
ak
en
an
y d
evelo
pm
en
ts s
uch
as
sch
ools
,
clin
ics,
roa
ds,
wat
er a
nd
oth
er i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
. H
e al
so s
aid
th
at t
he
‘sta
te-
men
ts b
y d
ep
uty
m
inis
ters
ab
ou
t th
e b
uil
din
g of
the E
pu
pa D
am
are
des
troy
ing
the
pea
ce a
nd
har
mon
y of
my
regi
on’
(In
tern
et:
Th
e N
am
ibia
n
12
2
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
Hik
unim
ue
Kap
ika
(Inte
rnet
: In
tern
atio
nal
Riv
ers
Net
wor
k 1
996).
In M
arch
1997,
the
DTA
sid
ed w
ith t
he
inte
rest
gro
ups,
aft
er t
he
par
ty
mad
e it
cle
ar t
hat
it
wou
ld d
o ev
eryt
hin
g in
its
pow
er t
o st
op t
he
Epupa
Dam
,
incl
udin
g an
att
empt
to b
lock
the
finan
cial
ass
ista
nce
whic
h t
he
gove
rnm
ent
or N
amp
ower
mig
ht
seek
in
ord
er t
o b
uil
d t
he
dam
. T
he
Leg
al A
ssis
tan
ce
Cen
tre (
LA
C)
warn
ed
th
e g
overn
men
t th
at
it w
ou
ld u
se l
itig
ati
on
if
it
def
end
ed i
ts d
ecis
ion
to
go a
hea
d w
ith
Ep
up
a. T
he
LA
C a
lso
thre
aten
ed
liti
gati
on
if
com
pla
ints
by t
he H
imb
a w
ere
not
pro
perl
y a
dd
ress
ed
. T
he
Nat
ional
Soc
iety
for
Hum
an R
ights
(N
SH
R)
call
ed o
n t
he
gove
rnm
ent
to t
reat
the
issu
e w
ith
ext
rem
e ca
uti
on i
f it
wan
ted
to
avoi
d b
lood
shed
(In
tern
et:
Pot
tinge
r 1997).
The
Dep
uty
Min
iste
r of
Min
es a
nd E
ner
gy,
Jesa
ya N
yam
u,
said
that
the
dam
wou
ld b
e buil
t, i
rres
pec
tive
of
the
outc
ome
of t
he
feas
ibil
ity
study.
In J
uly
1997,
the
anti
-dam
lob
by
in N
amib
ia w
as g
iven
a g
reat
boo
st
wh
en H
iku
nim
ue
Kap
ika
and
Pau
lus
Tja
vara
mad
e a
visi
t ov
erse
as.
Th
e
chie
fs v
isit
ed G
erm
any,
Bel
gium
, G
reat
Bri
tain
, N
orw
ay a
nd S
wed
en.
They
met
wit
h m
ember
s of
the
Ger
man
Par
liam
ent,
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n M
inis
ters
and
man
ager
s of
fin
anci
al i
nst
itu
tion
s, a
s w
ell
as N
OR
AD
an
d N
orco
nsu
lt,
the
Nor
weg
ian o
rgan
isat
ion t
hat
spon
sore
d t
he
Epupa
feas
ibil
ity
study.
A p
ress
confe
rence
was
hel
d a
fter
thei
r ar
riva
l in
Win
dhoe
k. Sev
en o
vers
eas
orga
nis
a-
tion
s7w
ho
spon
sore
d the
chie
fs’ v
isit
sen
t a
lett
er to
Pre
siden
t N
ujo
ma,
urg
ing
him
not
to
bu
ild
an
oth
er d
am o
n t
he
Ku
nen
e. T
he
Min
istr
y of
Min
es a
nd
Ener
gy r
espon
ded
angr
ily
to t
he
visi
t an
d c
alle
d i
t a
‘wel
l or
ganis
ed f
arce
’.
The
Min
istr
y al
so s
aid that
the
chie
fs w
ere
use
d b
y ‘e
nvi
ronm
enta
l ex
trem
ists
’
in t
he
Wes
t. A
t it
s A
fric
an c
onfe
rence
, E
arth
life
Afr
ica
pas
sed a
res
oluti
on
condem
nin
g th
e pro
pos
ed E
pupa
Dam
(In
tern
et: E
arth
life
Afr
ica
1997).
Th
e d
raft
feasi
bil
ity s
tud
y w
as
com
ple
ted
in
Octo
ber
19
97
an
d t
he
Him
ba
peo
ple
wer
e as
ked
to
com
men
t on
it,
but
they
sti
ll o
ppos
ed t
he
dam
in
pri
nci
ple
(In
tern
et:
Inte
rnat
ional
Riv
ers
Net
wor
k 1
997).
In N
ovem
ber
1997,
the
EA
C s
ent a
lett
er to
the
Pre
siden
t of
Fin
land, M
artt
i A
hti
saar
i, a
skin
g him
to a
dvis
e t
he N
am
ibia
n g
overn
men
t n
ot
to g
o a
head
wit
h E
pu
pa a
nd
to
consi
der
alt
ernat
ive
opti
ons
of p
ower
gen
erat
ion (
Inte
rnet
: L
ette
r to
Pre
siden
t
Mar
tti A
hti
saar
i 5 N
ovem
ber
1997).
In D
ecem
ber
1997, a
lett
er w
as s
ent fr
om
the
Soc
iety
for
Thre
aten
ed P
eople
to
NO
RA
D a
nd N
orco
nsu
lt, as
kin
g th
em t
o
stop
su
pp
ort
ing t
he d
am
(In
tern
et:
Lett
er
to N
OR
AD
an
d N
orc
on
sult
19
Dec
ember
1997).
A n
um
ber
of in
dep
enden
t sc
ienti
sts
revi
ewed
the
feas
ibil
ity
study
at t
he
end o
f 1997.
In g
ener
al t
hey
fou
nd t
hat
, in
ter
ali
a,
the
study
was
not
up
to
stan
dar
d (
Inte
rnet
: In
tern
atio
nal
Riv
ers
Net
wor
k 1
99
8).
A p
ub
lic
hea
ring
was
hel
d i
n W
indhoe
k o
n 6
and 7
Feb
ruar
y 1998.
Subm
issi
ons
wer
e
12
5
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
lob
byi
ng
acti
viti
es a
re w
ell
orga
nis
ed a
nd
pea
cefu
l, a
nd
sh
ould
not
tu
rn
viol
ent
in t
he
nea
r fu
ture
. Y
et,
as l
ong
as t
he
Epupa
Dam
is
on t
he
card
s, t
he
inte
rest
gro
ups
wil
l kee
p u
p t
hei
r ca
mpai
gns
agai
nst
it.
Conclu
sion
The
inte
ract
ion b
etw
een t
he
dif
fere
nt
acto
rs i
n t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
bas
in h
as,
since
1926 p
asse
d t
hro
ugh
phas
es o
f co
nfl
ict
and c
ooper
atio
n.
How
ever
, th
e
Ku
nen
e R
iver
was
not
th
e d
irec
t ca
usa
lity
in
th
e p
erio
ds
of c
onfl
ict.
Th
e
ch
ron
olo
gic
al
stu
dy s
how
s th
at
a n
um
ber
of
facto
rs –
most
im
port
an
tly
ideo
logi
cal
dif
fere
nce
s bet
wee
n t
he
acto
rs d
uri
ng
the
Col
d W
ar –
con
trib
ute
d
to t
he
confl
ictu
al s
tate
of
affa
irs
duri
ng
the
per
iod 1
975-1
989, w
ith t
he
wat
ers
of t
he
Kunen
e pla
ying
a sm
all
role
. T
he
last
sta
ge o
f th
e re
lati
onsh
ip b
etw
een
the
two
nei
ghbou
ring
stat
es i
s ch
arac
teri
sed b
y a
larg
er d
egre
e of
coo
per
atio
n
than
has
bee
n d
emon
stra
ted
in
th
e p
ast.
Th
e go
od a
nd
sol
id r
elat
ion
ship
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la i
s th
e re
ason
for
this
, an
d t
his
fac
tor
wil
l al
way
s
bod
e w
ell
for
wat
er p
olit
ics
in t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
bas
in.
Th
e on
ly b
one
of
con
ten
tion
is
the d
am
sit
es
for
the p
rop
ose
d d
am
on
th
e K
un
en
e.
In a
ll
likel
ihoo
d,
if t
he
issu
e of
the
dam
sit
es p
ersi
sts
into
the
futu
re,
the
issu
e w
ill
be
reso
lved
pea
cefu
lly.
In
itia
lly,
neg
otia
tion
s at
min
iste
rial
lev
el w
ould
be
hel
d b
etw
een t
he
two
resp
ecti
ve m
inis
ters
who
are
conce
rned
wit
h t
he
issu
e.
Sh
ould
th
ese
fail
, ta
lks
wil
l b
e h
eld
on
a p
resi
den
tial
lev
el b
etw
een
Dos
San
tos
an
d N
ujo
ma.
Aft
er
this
op
tion
has
been
exh
au
sted
, N
am
ibia
an
d
Ango
la w
ill
mov
e on
to
med
iati
on a
nd a
rbit
rati
on.
How
ever
, it
is
envi
sage
d
that
the
issu
e w
ill
be
reso
lved
at
pre
siden
tial
-lev
el n
egot
iati
ons,
if
indee
d,
it
shou
ld e
ven c
ome
to t
hat
.
Th
e ro
le a
nd
in
volv
emen
t of
nat
ion
al a
nd
in
tern
atio
nal
NG
Os
are
of
such
a n
ature
, th
at t
he
issu
e of
the
Epupa
Dam
wil
l co
nti
nue
to g
o ag
ainst
the
grai
n o
f th
e non
-sta
te a
ctor
s w
ell in
to the
futu
re. O
ne
thin
g is
cer
tain
, an
d that
is t
hat
the
inte
rest
gro
ups
in t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
bas
in a
re h
ere
to s
tay,
and w
ill
dog
the
Nam
ibia
n g
over
nm
ent
and i
nfl
uen
ce o
ther
act
ors
(lik
e fi
nan
cial
inst
i-
tuti
ons)
un
til
the
two
cou
ntr
ies
eith
er c
ance
l th
e d
am,
or g
o ah
ead
wit
h i
t
irre
spec
tive
of
the
anti
-dam
lob
by.
The
inte
rest
gro
ups
in N
amib
ia a
re u
sing
pea
cefu
l m
eans
to a
dva
nce
thei
r op
pos
itio
n t
o E
pupa.
If
the
Nam
ibia
n a
nd
Ango
lan g
over
nm
ents
pre
ss a
hea
d w
ith t
he
const
ruct
ion o
f a
dam
, th
e lo
ose
coali
tion
wil
l st
ep
up
its
cam
paig
ns
again
st t
he g
overn
men
ts,
esp
ecia
lly
Nam
ibia
, w
hic
h i
s se
en a
s th
e dri
ving
forc
e beh
ind t
he
new
dam
. If
Nam
ibia
12
4
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
17
Marc
h 1
99
9).
In
th
e s
am
e m
on
th,
the M
inis
ter
of
Min
es
an
d E
nerg
y,
Jesa
ya N
yam
u,
ind
icat
ed t
hat
a r
efer
end
um
cou
ld b
e h
eld
in
th
e K
un
ene
regio
n t
o d
ecid
e w
heth
er
the c
on
trovers
ial
Ep
up
a D
am
sh
ou
ld g
o a
head
(In
tern
et:
Th
e N
am
ibia
n2
9 M
arch
19
99
). I
f a
refe
ren
du
m i
s h
eld
on
th
e
Ep
up
a i
ssu
e,
it w
ill
be a
move i
n t
he r
igh
t d
irecti
on
an
d w
ou
ld r
ed
uce
pos
sible
inte
rnal
con
flic
t in
Nam
ibia
.
Th
e st
rate
gies
an
d t
acti
cs o
f th
e d
iffe
ren
t n
atio
nal
an
d i
nte
rnat
ion
al
NG
Os
conti
nued
duri
ng
the
last
par
t of
1999. In
Augu
st, th
e lo
ose
coal
itio
n o
f
NG
Os
sen
t a l
ett
er
to G
eti
net
Gio
rgis
of
the A
fric
an
Develo
pm
en
t B
an
k
(AD
B),
urg
ing
the
AD
B n
ot t
o fi
nan
ce t
he
Epupa
Dam
, if
indee
d t
hey
wer
e
con
sid
eri
ng d
oin
g s
o.
Th
e l
ett
er
was
sign
ed
by 4
2 o
rgan
isati
on
s an
d 1
7
indiv
idual
s (I
nte
rnet
: L
ette
r to
Get
inet
Gio
rgis
1999).
Of th
e 42 o
rgan
isat
ions,
mor
e th
an h
alf
(23)
wer
e fr
om S
outh
Afr
ica,
8w
hil
e fi
ve w
ere
from
the
UK
and
thre
e fr
om N
amib
ia a
nd G
erm
any.
This
let
ter
coin
cided
wit
h a
bri
efin
g doc
u-
men
t se
nt
to P
resi
den
t T
hab
o M
bek
i fr
om t
he
En
viro
nm
enta
l M
onit
orin
g
Gro
up (
EM
G),
just
bef
ore
his
vis
it t
o N
amib
ia i
n A
ugu
st 1
999.
In t
he
doc
u-
men
t th
e n
egat
ive
effe
cts
of t
he
dam
(in
ter
ms
of t
he
envi
ron
men
t an
d t
he
Him
ba
com
munit
y) w
ere
hig
hli
ghte
d.
The
bri
efin
g doc
um
ent
echoe
d M
bek
i’s
visi
on o
f an
Afr
ican
Ren
aiss
ance
an
d e
mp
has
ised
th
e im
por
tan
ce o
f th
e
min
orit
y hum
an r
ights
of
the
Him
ba.
The
lett
er a
lso
stat
ed t
hat
the
pro
pos
ed
Epupa
Dam
was
under
min
ing
the
pro
gres
sive
dev
elop
men
t of
Nam
ibia
, an
d
was
con
trar
y to
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
own s
elf-
inte
rest
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a (I
nte
rnet
:
Inte
rnat
ion
al R
iver
s N
etw
ork
, 1
99
9).
Th
is s
how
s th
at t
he
NG
Os
are
doi
ng
ever
ythin
g in
thei
r pow
er t
o st
op t
he
Epupa
Dam
. It
als
o in
dic
ates
the
link
bet
wee
n g
over
nm
ent
and
cit
izen
s, a
nd
th
e d
emoc
rati
c p
roce
sses
th
at a
re
invo
lved
in l
obbyi
ng
for
a ce
rtai
n i
ssue.
The
lett
er a
nd t
he
bri
efin
g doc
um
ent
are
furt
her
ste
ps
in t
he
inte
rnat
ional
isat
ion o
f th
e E
pupa
deb
ate
and i
ndic
ate
the
init
iati
ves
whic
h N
GO
s ca
n t
ake
to a
dva
nce
thei
r st
ance
on a
n i
ssue.
Th
e i
nte
rest
gro
up
s p
ull
ed
ou
t all
th
e s
top
s, a
nd
use
d e
very
foru
m
pos
sib
le t
o p
reve
nt
Ep
up
a fr
om b
ein
g co
nst
ruct
ed.
In N
ovem
ber
19
99
, th
e
EA
C a
nd
th
e L
AC
pre
sen
ted
th
e c
ase
of
the H
imb
a b
efo
re t
he W
orl
d
Com
mis
sion
on
Dam
s (W
CD
) d
uri
ng
a h
eari
ng
in C
ape
Tow
n.
Th
e W
CD
hea
rd a
bou
t th
e neg
ativ
e ef
fect
s th
e dam
cou
ld h
ave
on t
he
Him
ba
com
mu-
nit
y. A
nd
rew
Cor
bet
t, f
rom
th
e L
AC
, al
so t
old
th
e h
eari
ng
that
nu
mer
ous
meeti
ngs
of
the E
AC
in
Nam
ibia
had
been
bro
ken
up
by a
rmed
poli
ce
(Inte
rnet
: C
ape
Tim
es12 N
ovem
ber
1999).
Nati
on
al
an
d i
nte
rnati
on
al
NG
Os
can
have a
pro
fou
nd
im
pact
on
supply
-sid
e m
anag
emen
t pro
ject
s in
dev
elop
ing
countr
ies.
At
this
sta
ge,
the
12
7
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
4A
ccor
din
g to
Col
eman
, P
resi
den
t Sam
Nujo
ma
put
an e
ffec
tive
hal
t to
the
deb
ate
on t
he
topic
of
the
Epupa
Dam
, by
dec
lari
ng
that
any
civi
l se
rvan
t op
pos
ing
the
pla
n w
ould
be
fire
d (
Inte
rnet
: C
olem
an 1
995).
5T
he
IRN
was
est
abli
shed
in 1
985 b
y P
hil
ip W
illi
ams,
who
had
for
yea
rs h
elped
envi
ron
-
men
tali
sts
tryi
ng
to s
top
wat
er p
roje
cts
in C
alif
orn
ia (
McC
ull
y 1
99
6:3
07
). T
he
IRN
’s
pol
icy
rega
rdin
g th
e in
volv
emen
t in
lar
ge d
am p
roje
cts
abro
ad is
that
a loc
al inte
rest
gro
up
shou
ld f
irst
con
tact
the
orga
nis
atio
n b
efor
e th
ey w
ill
lobby
the
issu
e. T
he
reas
on f
or t
his
is
that
the
IRN
, li
ke
any
orga
nis
atio
n,
has
lim
ited
res
ourc
es a
t it
s dis
pos
al a
nd c
ann
ot g
et
invo
lved
in l
arge
dam
deb
ates
eve
ryw
her
e.
6F
orm
erly
know
n a
s th
e E
nvi
ronm
enta
l D
efen
ce F
und (
ED
F).
7T
hes
e or
ganis
atio
ns
are:
Ges
ells
chaf
t fü
r A
kti
ves
Um
wel
tbew
uss
tsei
n, A
rbei
tkre
is A
frik
a,
Gese
llsc
haft
fü
r B
ed
roh
te
Volk
er,
S
urv
ival
Inte
rnati
on
al,
E
uro
pean
all
ian
ce
wit
h
Ind
igen
ous
Peo
ple
, F
IVA
S,
IWG
IA I
nte
rnat
ion
al S
ecre
tari
at,
Cop
enh
agen
an
d I
WG
IA
Sw
eden
(In
tern
et: E
arth
life
Afr
ica
1997).
8T
hes
e in
clu
de,
am
ong
oth
ers,
th
e S
outh
ern
Afr
ican
Riv
ers
Ass
ocia
tion
(S
AR
A),
Gre
en
Par
ty o
f Sou
th A
fric
a, E
nvi
ronm
enta
l M
onit
orin
g G
roup,
Ear
thli
fe A
fric
a an
d t
he
CSIR
:
Envi
ronm
ente
k.
Refe
rences
Agre
emen
t be
twee
n t
he
gov
ernm
ent
of t
he
Rep
ubl
ic o
f N
am
ibia
an
d t
he
gov
ern
men
t of
th
e P
eopl
e’s
Rep
ubl
ic o
f A
ngol
a i
n r
egard
to
the
dev
elop
men
t and u
tili
sati
on o
f th
e w
ate
r po
tenti
al
of t
he
Kunen
e R
iver
, 1990a,
sig
ned
at
Luban
go, A
ngo
la o
n 1
8 S
epte
mber
1990.
Agre
emen
t be
twee
n t
he
gov
ernm
ent
of t
he
Rep
ubl
ic o
f N
am
ibia
an
d t
he
gov
ern
men
t of
th
e P
eopl
e’s
Rep
ubl
ic o
f A
ngol
a o
n g
ener
al
coop
erati
on a
nd t
he
crea
tion
of
the
Angol
an-N
am
ibia
n J
oint
Com
mis
sion
of
Coo
pera
tion
, 1990b, si
gned
at
Luban
go, A
ngo
la o
n 1
8 S
epte
mber
1990.
Bal
do,
O.
and S
ibth
orpe,
C., 1
998,
The
Sk
y is
the
Lim
it:
Ele
ctro
nic
Net
wor
kin
g an
d N
GO
s, T
he
Sou
th A
fric
an J
ourn
al
of I
nte
rnati
onal
Aff
air
s, V
ol.5
No.
2.
Bal
l, A
.R., 1
988, M
oder
n P
olit
ics
and G
over
nm
ent,
Lon
don
: M
acm
illa
n P
ress
.
Bar
ber
, J.
and B
arra
tt, J.
, 1990, Sou
th A
fric
a’s F
orei
gn P
olic
y: T
he
Sea
rch
for
Sta
tus
and S
ecuri
ty
19
45
-19
88, C
ambri
dge
: C
ambri
dge
Univ
ersi
ty P
ress
in a
ssoc
iati
on w
ith the
Sou
th A
fric
an
Inst
itute
of
Inte
rnat
ional
Aff
airs
(SA
IIA
).
Bes
t, A
.C.G
. an
d d
e B
lij,
H.J
., 1
977, A
fric
an S
urv
ey, N
ew Y
ork: Jo
hn W
iley
& S
ons.
Bou
lden
, L
.H.
and
Ed
mon
ds,
M.,
19
99
, T
he
Pol
itic
s of
De-
min
ing:
Min
e C
leara
nce
in
Sou
ther
n
Afr
ica, Jo
han
nes
burg
: SA
IIA
.
Bro
ck, L
., 1
991, P
eace
Tro
ugh
Par
ks:
The
Envi
ronm
ent
on t
he
Pea
ce R
esea
rch A
gen
da,
Jou
rnal
of P
eace
Res
earc
h, V
ol.2
8 N
o.4
.
Busi
nes
s D
ay,
23 M
arch
1987, ‘E
xerc
ise
in P
eace
’.
12
6
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
pro
ves
stea
dfa
st i
n i
ts d
ecis
ion
to
bu
ild
a d
am,
the
mos
t li
kel
y ac
tion
th
e
inte
rest
gro
ups
in N
amib
ia w
ill
take
is l
itig
atio
n. T
he
inte
rnat
ional
NG
Os
wil
l
go a
hea
d w
ith
th
eir
lett
er-w
riti
ng
and
in
flu
enci
ng
of s
tate
smen
an
d w
omen
(and f
inan
cial
inst
ituti
ons)
in o
ther
cou
ntr
ies
to p
ersu
ade
Nam
ibia
not
to
go
ahea
d w
ith
th
e d
am.
Th
e p
rosp
ect
of a
ref
eren
du
m o
n t
he
issu
e h
old
s th
e
pro
mis
e of
a p
eace
ful
reso
luti
on.
A M
emor
andum
of
Under
stan
din
g bet
wee
n
the
gove
rnm
ents
and t
he
Nam
ibia
n N
GO
s – l
ike
the
one
sign
ed b
etw
een t
he
Les
otho
Hig
hla
nds
Dev
elop
men
t A
uth
orit
y (L
HD
A)
and t
he
Les
otho
NG
Os
rega
rdin
g th
e L
esot
ho
Hig
hla
nds
Wat
er P
roje
ct (
LH
WP
) – c
ould
als
o bri
ng
the
issu
e to
a p
eace
ful
concl
usi
on. T
he
only
mov
emen
t w
hic
h c
ould
tra
nsf
orm
the i
nte
racti
on
betw
een
th
e s
tate
-acto
rs i
n t
he K
un
en
e b
asi
n i
s U
NIT
A,
shou
ld i
t d
ecid
e to
att
ack
th
e st
rate
gic
inst
alla
tion
s on
th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er.
How
ever
, th
is w
ill
not
be
a w
ater
war
, but
pay
-bac
k f
or N
amib
ia’s
suppor
t of
Ango
la a
gain
st U
NIT
A.
Wil
l th
ere
be
a w
ater
war
in
th
e K
un
ene
Riv
er b
asin
? If
th
e S
idu
du
/
Kas
ikil
i is
land d
ispute
bet
wee
n N
amib
ia a
nd B
otsw
ana
is t
aken
as
a ya
rd-
stic
k f
or t
he
way
dis
agre
emen
ts w
ill
be
han
dle
d i
n s
outh
ern A
fric
a, t
hen
it
bod
es w
ell
for
the
pea
cefu
l re
solu
tion
of
wat
er d
ispute
s. A
lso,
the
rela
tion
s
bet
wee
n t
he
countr
ies
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a, a
nd b
etw
een N
amib
ia a
nd A
ngo
la
in p
arti
cula
r, a
re q
uit
e pea
cefu
l. T
hes
e fr
iendly
rel
atio
ns
are
cruci
al t
o th
e
pre
ven
tion
of
con
flic
t in
th
e ar
ena
of h
ydro
pol
itic
s. I
n c
oncl
usi
on,
then
, a
wat
er w
ar,
as d
efin
ed i
n t
his
pap
er,
has
not
occ
urr
ed i
n t
he
Ku
nen
e R
iver
bas
in i
n t
he
pas
t, a
nd t
he
likel
ihoo
d t
hat
it
may
occ
ur
in t
he
futu
re i
s ve
ry
rem
ote.
Footn
ote
s
1It
was
th
e h
awk
ish
Def
ence
Min
iste
r P.
W.
Bot
ha
wh
o, a
t a
cab
inet
mee
tin
g in
19
78
,
insi
sted
Sou
th A
fric
a bec
ome
mor
e dir
ectl
y in
volv
ed i
n t
he
Ango
lan w
ar. T
he
cabin
et w
as
over
whel
min
gly
in f
avou
r of
Sou
th A
fric
a’s
invo
lvem
ent
and V
orst
er h
ad t
o gi
ve i
n t
o th
e
haw
ks
(De
Kle
rk 1
998:5
8-5
9).
2T
he
Por
tugu
ese
ambas
sador
to
Sou
th A
fric
a pro
test
ed a
gain
st t
he
acti
on b
y Sou
th A
fric
a
on the
Cal
ueq
ue
Dam
, but no
assu
rance
s co
uld
be
give
n b
y him
wit
h r
egar
d to
the
safe
ty o
f
the w
ork
ers
an
d t
he p
um
p s
tati
on
, an
d t
he S
ou
th A
fric
an
s re
main
ed
at
Calu
eq
ue
(Ste
enkam
p 1
990:3
9).
3W
hen
lit
igat
ion i
s use
d b
y an
NG
O o
r in
tere
st g
roup i
t w
ill
not
nec
essa
rily
mea
n t
hat
a
law
yer
wil
l be
hir
ed.
Man
y in
tere
st g
roups
and N
GO
s in
the
Nor
th e
mplo
y th
eir
own l
egal
exper
ts a
nd t
eam
s of
law
yers
, w
hos
e purp
ose
is t
o ar
ticu
late
the
inte
rest
of
the
orga
nis
a-
tion
thro
ugh
lit
igat
ion.
12
9
Hydropoliti
cal hots
pots
in s
outh
ern A
fric
a
Gle
ick, P.
H., 1
995, W
ater
and C
onfl
ict:
Fre
sh W
ater
Res
ourc
es a
nd I
nte
rnat
ional
Sec
uri
ty, in
Lyn
n-J
ones
, S.M
. an
d M
ille
r, S
.E., (
eds)
, G
loba
l D
anger
s: C
hangin
g D
imen
sion
s of
Inte
rnati
onal
Sec
uri
ty, C
ambri
dge
, M
assa
chuse
tts:
The
MIT
Pre
ss.
Hey
woo
d, A
., 1
99
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olit
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Lon
don
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acm
illa
n P
ress
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Hje
lmar
, U
., 1
996, T
he
Pol
itic
al P
ract
ice
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nvi
ron
men
tal
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anis
atio
ns,
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ts: A
vebu
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Ash
gate
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g.
Hol
sti,
K.J
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tern
ati
onal
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nti
ce H
all.
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uri
ty a
nd t
he
Envi
ronm
ent:
A P
reli
min
ary
Exp
lora
tion
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ull
etin
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ce
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rnat
ional
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k, 1996, E
pupa
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ubl
ic H
eari
ng
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omm
ent’ o
n D
am
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dy,
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dy
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rg/p
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ams/
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t of
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i A
hti
saar
i, 5
Nov
ember
1997, <
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aten
ed P
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RA
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orco
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lt, 19 D
ecem
ber
1997
,
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ter
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Os
to M
r. G
etin
et G
iorg
is, A
fric
an D
evel
opm
ent
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il &
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ard
ian
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5 D
ecem
ber
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99
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am
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n G
overn
men
t w
ill
back
New
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he
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n A
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n N
el, P.
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ealt
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loba
l O
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n I
nte
rnati
onal
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ati
ons
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ica,
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th A
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ersi
ty o
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ape
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ate
r as
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ourc
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itic
al
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t and C
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para
tive
Analy
sis
of t
he
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on i
n t
he
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ern A
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n, D
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t of
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itic
al S
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th A
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ty I
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ern A
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nes
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th A
fric
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itute
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rnat
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8
Ric
hard M
eis
sner
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nes
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ay,
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ater
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l fo
r N
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Ca
pe
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es,
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ber
19
99
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am
s can
be D
isast
rou
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e Y
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ho
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riva
te M
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he
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uri
ty i
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ar-
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ican S
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