s&p 500 negative growth predictions in year 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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S&P 500 significant negative % growth in year 2016/2017
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Goals Analyze S&P 500 and US GDP year over year % growth for last 25
years Capture observations and predictions Keep it short and simple! Data Source:
– S&P % year over year growth data is taken from Yahoo– USA GDP % growth year over year is taken from world bank
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GDP and S&P 500 % growth change
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
GDP and S&P % growth
GDP % Growth S&P500 % Growth
44
Pattern of S&P 500 % growth change
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
GDP and S&P % growth
GDP % Growth S&P500 % Growth
A A V A A V A A V A A V?ChartShape
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Observations from chartYear Chart Pattern
1990 – 1995 A A V
1995 – 2002 A A V2002 – 2009 A A V2009 – 2017 A A V?
Pattern uses two font size– Pattern Size “A” indicates % change >10%
– Pattern Size ” A” indicates % change <=10%
– Pattern V captures negative % growth
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Signals & Predictions In case AAV pattern repeats and V shape follows pattern something
like year 2008– In year 2016 we may see significant negative growth of S&P 500
In case AAV pattern repeats and V shape follows pattern something like year 2002– In year 2017 we may see significant negative growth of S&P 500
S&P 500 negative % growth precedes GDP negative % growth– If AAV pattern repeats, US GDP may go down in year 2017 or 2018