SP-645

Proceedings of the

2nd IAASS Conference“Space Safety in a Global World”

14–16 May 2007Chicago, USA

SP-645 July 2007

Proceedings of the

2nd IAASS Conference “Space Safety in a Global World”

14–16 May 2007 Chicago, USA

Sponsored by ESA NASA JAXA ROSCOSMOS

Co-Chairs: T. Sgobba (IAASS President) J. Bosma (ESA) H. Hasegawa (JAXA) B. O’Connor (NASA) S. Sharigin (FSA) Members: F. Albi (F) W. Ailor (US) D. Bohle (D) N. Bahr (US) V. Chang (CA) R. Chrostowski (US) M. Ciancone (US) M. Ferrante (I) M. Frank (US) J. Frost (US) J. Fragola (US) T. Heller (D) J. Haber (US) J. Holsomback (US)

R. Jakhu (CA) R. Johnson (US) P. Kirkpatrick (US) N. Leveson (US) A. Larsen (US) T. Maniwa (JP) C. Moura (BR) A. Menzel (D) S. Newman (US) G. Ortega (SP) T. Pfitzer (US) J. Pelton (US) C. Preyssl (A) G. Reitz (D)

Y. Sato (JP) S. Simpson (US) M. Stametelatos (US) R. Stuart (US) L. Summerer (A) C. Shivers (US) A. Soons (NL) J-P. Trinchero (F) N. Takeuchi (JP) W. Vantine (US) P. Vorobiev (RU) P. Wilde (US) L. Winzer (D) J. Wade (US)

Co-Chair Special Sessions on Materials Safety: M. Pedley (NASA) Members: T. De Rooj (NL) D. Griffin (US) K. McGinnis (US) S. Tachihara (JP) Publication Proceedings of the 2nd IAASS Conference “Space Safety in a Global World”

Chicago, USA (ESA SP-645, July 2007)

Edited by D. Danesy

Published and distributed by ESA Communication Production Office ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands

Price EUR 70

ISBN ISSN

92-9291-209-5 1609-042X

Copyright 2007 European Space Agency

CONTENTS

Plenary Session

Session 1: Legal and Regulatory Issues – Part 1 Chairs: R. Jakhu & J. Pelton

DEVELOPING COMMERCIAL HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT REGULATIONS K. Wong

SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT, REGULATIONS NEEDS FOR SPACE SAFETY IN THE LIGHT OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: EARTH, THE MOON AND MARS A. Schoenmaker

Session 2: Organisational Culture and Safety – Part 1 Chairs: J. Holsomback & J. Frost

ORGANISATIONAL AND CULTURAL ROLES IN SAFETY FAILURES IN HIGH CONSEQUENCE OPERATIONS M. Jones

RISK ANALYSIS USING MODELING AND SIMULATION OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND BEHAVIOR A. Silbovitz

SAFETY EXCELLENCE D.K.H. Bohle, P. Hampe & J. Lenic

Session 3: Microbiological Risk and Control Chairs: W. Wong & M. Pedley

MONITORING OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSED SPACE CABINS BY ELECTRONIC NOSE TECHNOLOGY K. Hettwer, J. Warrelmann, J. Lenic & D. Bohle

BIOSAFETY ASSESSMENT OF PAYLOADS CONTAINING BIOLOGICAL MATERIALS D. Pierson & W. Wong

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Session 4: Designing Safety into Space Vehicles – Part 1 Chairs: A. Menzel & R. Chrostowski

STRUCTURAL DESIGN OF GLASS AND CERAMIC COMPONENTS FOR SPACE SYSTEM SAFETY K.S. Bernstein

ATV SAFETY CONCEPTS R. Chase, F. Festa, H. Wartenberg & J. Gary

SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR THE ATV PROPULSION AND RE-BOOST SUBSYSTEM T. Rieger, I. Ahrens, R. Reschke & J. Schwarzer

Session 5: Human Error Prevention – Part 1 Chairs: N. Bahr & J. Dollberg

WHY SMART PEOPLE DO DUMB THINGS AND HOW TO AVOID THE SAME MISTAKES J. Hopkins

INFORMATION ALIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTED HUMAN COORDINATION OF SAFETY CRITICAL SYSTEMS B.S. Caldwell, R.C. Palmer III, C. Kokini, K.S. Byrd, L. Ignacio, J.C. Onken

Session 6: Legal and Regulatory Issues – Part 2 Chairs: T. Pfitzer & J. Bosma

SPACE PLANES AND SPACE TOURISM: DEVELOPING NEW SAFETY STANDARDS & REGULATIONS J.N. Pelton

ASTROREGS: THE “RULES OF THE ROAD” IN OUTER SPACE J.R. Zissu

ARE THE CURRENT INTERNATIONAL SPACE TREATIES SUFFICIENT TO REGULATE SPACE SAFETY, AND ESTABLISH RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY? R.S. Jakhu & Y.O.M. Nyampong

INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR ADVANCEMENT OF SPACE SAFETY (IAASS) INDEPENDENT SPACE SAFETY BOARD C. Grayson

Session 7: Organisational Culture and Safety – Part 2 Chairs: B. O’Connor & J. Frost

SUSTANING NASA’S SAFETY CULTURE THROUGH EFFECTIVE TEAM DEBRIEFINGS AND INDIVIDUAL TEAM MEMBER SELF-ASSESSMENTS D.G. Rogers

PANEL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (PRM) IMPLEMENTATION AND EFFECTS WITHIN SAFETY REVIEW PANELS R.W. Taylor & S.K. Nash

DEVELOPING A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH FOR INDEPENDENT CONFORMITY ASSESSMENT: THE BRAZILIAN CASE M. Niwa & C.A.T. Moura

ENHANCING THE NASA EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLE PAYLOAD SAFETY REVIEW PROCESS THROUGH PROGRAM ACTIVITIES T.E. Palo

Session 8: Missions Operations Safety & Safety of Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Chairs: H. Hasegawa & M. Childress

ESA SAFETY SUPPORT TO MISSIONS OPERATIONS V. Favia & A. Herd

EVA HAZARDS DUE TO TPS INSPECTION AND REPAIR C. E. Stewart

COLUMBUS-CONTROL CENTRE (COL-CC) THE FOCUS FOR COLUMBUS SAFE OPERATIONS - AN OVERVIEW FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE FLIGHT DIRECTORS AND THE ESA MISSION PA & SAFETY MANAGEMENT G.C. Morzuch & A. Büchel

FLIGHT CONTROLLER INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY USE FOR TASK COORDINATION IN MISSION OPERATIONS B.S. Caldwell, K.S. Byrd & J.C. Onken

Session 9: Designing Safety into Space Vehicles – Part 2 Chairs: R. Chrostowski & F. Festa

RISK ASSESSMENT CHALLENGES IN THE ARES I UPPER STAGE J.E. Stott, R.W. Ring, H.A. Elrada & F. Hark

DESIGNING SAFETY INTO SPACE VEHICLES THROUGH GROUND CREW FACTORS T.S. Barth & B.G. Kanki

SPACECRAFT SURVIVABILITY ENGINEERING: A LOCKHEED MARTIN INNOVATION ENHANCING TRADITIONAL HAZARD CONTROL APPROACHES M.K. Saemisch & M.S. Buchanan

Session 10: Human Error Prevention – Part 2 Chairs: T. Heller & N. Bahr

TEAMWORK A KEY COMPONENT IN AEROSPACE FLIGHT SAFETY EFFORTS J.M. Livingston & J.C. Wetherholt

THE SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ASTRONAUT PROGRAM AND SPACE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT – A THIRD WORLD PERSPECTIVE N.R. Zakaria, D.R. Zahari, A.A.A. Majid & J. Othman

Session 11: Space Debris Hazard – Part 1 Chairs: W. Ailor & F. Alby

THE DISPOSAL OF SPACECRAFT AND LAUNCH VEHICLE STAGES IN LOW EARTH ORBIT N.L. Johnson

LASER TIME-TAGGING OF SPACE OBJECTS IMAGES M. Nemec, I. Procházka, K. Hamal, G. Kirchner, F. Koidl & W.G. Voller

PROTECTION OF SPACE VEHICLES FROM MICROMETEOROID/ORBITAL DEBRIS (MMOD) DAMAGES S. Barr

RORSAT NAK COOLANT LOCATION AND DISTRIBUTION F. Muse

Session 12: Safety Risk Management – Part 1 Chairs: J. Frost & S. Newman

REDEFINING SAFETY L.B. Sirota

A CLASSIFICATION OF OPEN-LOOP AND CLOSED-LOOP RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIONS B.D. Owens, J.R. Laracy, M. Stringfellow Herring & N.G. Leveson

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY AND INCREASED NARRATIVE SYNTHESIS CAN ENHANCE CRITICAL DECISION MAKING FOR SPACE EXPLORATION J.S. Newman, D. Vecellio & J.D. Hawley

BEYOND SPREADSHEETS: DATABASE SHARING D.R. Baillie

Session 13: Safety on Long Duration Manned Missions – Part 1 Chairs: C. Shivers & J. Wade

COMPONENT AND SYSTEM PRESSURE INTEGRITY VERIFICATION FOR CREW SAFETY ON LONG DURATION MISSION MANNED SPACECRAFT O. Lvovsky, & S. Underwood

THE INCORPORATION OF MEDICAL EMERGENCY EVENT SEQUENCES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL R.J. Haines

Session 14: Designing Safety into Space Vehicles & Crew Escape Systems Chairs: J. Fragola & H. Taylor

“DESIGN FOR RELIABILITY AND SAFETY” APPROACH FOR THE NEW NASA LAUNCH VEHICLE F.M. Safie & D.M. Weldon

HAZARDS, SAFETY AND DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS FOR LITHIUM-ION CELLS AND BATTERIES J.A. Jeevarajan

CREW ESCAPE RISK ENVELOPE ASSESSMENTS FOR CANDIDATE CEV LAUNCH SYSTEMS DURING ASCENT C.J. Freitas, R.M. Keedy & L.J. Langston

Session 15: Materials Safety – Part 1 Chairs: M. Pedley & K. McGinnis

METAL COATED RAPID PROTOTYPE MATERIALS FOR SPACEFLIGHT APPLICATIONS: LOW COST, INTRICATE SLA PARTS WITH ‘A’ RATED FLAMMABILITY AND TOXIC OFFGASSING G. Funk

INTERRELATIONSHIP OF NONDESTRUCTIVE EVALUATION METHODOLOLOGIES APPLIED TO TESTING OF COMPOSITE OVERWRAPPED PRESSURE VESSELS M.R. Leifeste, N.J. Greene & T.B. Yoder

ELECTRICAL ARC IGNITION TESTING OF SPACESUIT MATERIALS S. Smith, T. Gallus, S. Harper, E. Ball & H. Beeson

Session 16: Space Debris Hazards – Part 2 Chairs: F. Alby & W. Ailor

PROTECTING SPACECRAFT AGAINST MMOD IMPACT DAMAGE: ARE SPHERES REALLY THE CORRECT SHAPE TO USE IN IMPACT PREDICTIONS? W.P. Schonberg & J.E. Williamsen

ANALYSING THE RISK INCREASE IN LEO DUE TO RECENT MAJOR FRAGMENTATION EVENTS H. Krag, H. Klinkrad, M. Oswald, S. Stabroth & C. Wiedemann

Session 17: Safety Risk Management – Part 2 Chairs: J. Frost & V. Chang

OPERATIONS PROCEDURE VALIDATION AS A RISK MITIGATION APPROACH AND ITS RELEVANCE TO SAFETY S. Challis, K.-U. Peters & A. Herd

MANAGING RISK WITHIN A DECISION ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK H. Dezfuli, R. Youngblood & J. Reinert

RAIL RISK BEST PRACTICE - CROSS SECTORAL LESSONS TO BE LEARNED? P. Bews, M. Gonzalez-Palacio, M. Davis & A. Herd

Session 18: Safety on Long Duration Manned Missions – Part 2 Chairs: M. Azeev & M. Schwartz

MERITS OF A SINGLE SYSTEM FOR UNITS OF MEASURE FOR COMPLEX SPACE SYSTEMS S. Barr

HUMAN-IN-THE-LOOP HAZARD APPROACH FOR LONG-DURATION SPACE EXPLORATION B.D. Krolczyk

Session 19: Safety Critical Software – Part 1 Chairs: N. Dulac & L. Winzer

HOW TO GUARANTEE AND IMPROVE THE SAFETY OF CRITICAL SOFTWARE P. Gast, D. Dalemagne, F. Dubuc & E. Zekri

Session 20: Launch Range Safety – Part 1 Chairs: J.-P. Trinchero & J. Haber

DETERMINATION OF MAXIMUM PROBABLE LOSS J.D. Collins, C.P. Brinkman & S.L. Carbon

SOYUZ LAUNCHER FROM FRENCH GUYANA: FLIGHT SAFETY ASPECTS FOR AN EXISTING RELIABLE LAUNCHER I. Rongier, M.-H. Arnal, J. Oswald & S. Louvel

Session 21: Space Debris Hazards – Part 3 Chairs: H. Krag & W. Ailor

ASSESSMENT OF ORBIT UNCERTAINTIES FOR COLLISION RISK PREDICTIONS AT ESA H. Krag, H. Klinkrad & J.R. Alarcón-Rodríguez

Session 22: Safety Risk Assessment & Management – Part 1 Chairs: W. Vantine & T. Heimann

A FORMAL MODELING APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE EXPLORATION SYSTEMS N. Dulac, B.D. Owens, N.G. Leveson & J.S. Carroll

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR JAPANESE EXPERIMENT MODULE S. Takada, T. Fukatsu, N. Takeuchi, M. Miki, S. Yoshikawa & Y. Sato

ENGINEERING AND SAFETY PARTNERSHIP ENHANCES SAFETY OF THE SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM (SSP) A. Duarte

Session 23: Radiation Hazard & Space Weather Forecast Chairs: G. Reitz & F. Cucinotta

SHIELDING FROM COSMIC RADIATION FOR INTERPLANETARY MISSIONS M. Durante

Session 24: Safety Critical Software – Part 2 Chairs: L. Winzer & B. Owens

DEVELOPING SAFETY-CRITICAL SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS FOR COMMERCIAL REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES D.P. Murray & T.L. Hardy

INTEGRATED TOTAL SYSTEM (ITS) FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA) J.W. McIntee Jr.

FILLING THE ASSURANCE GAP ON COMPLEX ELECTRONICS R.A. Plastow

Session 25: Launch Range Safety – Part 2 Chairs: T. Pfitzer & P. Wilde

LONG RANGE SAFETY AROUND THE FIRST ISS REFUELING EUROPEAN LAUNCH MISSION A5ES-ATV J. Droz, C. Leveau & A. Dartigalongue

USE OF THE JULIER-ULHMANN TRANSFORM FOR RAPID COMPUTATION OF DEBRIS IMPACT DISPERSIONS J.B. Lyle

Session 26: Legal and Regulatory Issues – Part 3 Chairs: J. Pelton & R. Jakhu

AN ICAO FOR SPACE? T. Sgobba

UNIQUE PUBLIC SAFETY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKET SHOWS J.R. Repcheck

HUMAN VULNERABILITY J.M. Haber, T. Hasselman & G. Lloyd

Session 27: Safety Risk Assessment – Part 2 Chairs: D. Bohle & T. Heimann

A FISHBONE PROCESS FOR SPACE LAUNCH VEHICLE AND GROUND SUPPORT SYSTEMS HAZARD ANALYSIS V. Srinath & P.E. Iyengar

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PROGRAMMATIC IMPLEMENTATION & APPLICATIONS IN SYSTEM SAFETY R.J. Haines

THE MULTI AGENT STRESS-STRENGTH MODEL RESEARCH FOR COMPUTER BASED SPACECRAFT HAZARD IDENTIFICATION R. Sekita, H. Hasegawa & Y. Oyatsu

Session 28: Spacecraft Re-entry Chairs: W. Ailor & H. Krag

A COMPARISON OF THE RISKS CAUSED BY DEBRIS FROM SPACECRAFT RE-ENTRY AND METEORITE FALLS B. Lazare & F. Alby

SPACE CAPSULE RECOVERY BY ISRO V. Krishnamurty, N. Narasaiah & JVN Ravi Kumar

SAFE SPACECRAFT RE-ENTRY: OUTSTANDING THERMO-PHYSICAL PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS E. Litovsky, V. Issoupov, J.I. Kleiman & N. Menn

CONTROLLED DEORBIT OF THE DELTA IV UPPER STAGE FOR THE DMSP-17 MISSION R.P. Patera, K.R. Bohman, M.A. Landa, C. Pao, R.T. Urbano, M.A. Weaver & D.C. White

Session 29: Space Material Safety – Part 2 Chairs: M. Pedley & S. Tachiara

SEPARATING PHYSICAL VARIABILITY FROM KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY: APPROACHES AND CRITICAL IMPLICATIONS TO SPACECRAFT MATERIAL RELIABILITY B. Vesely

INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION MATERIALS – SELECTED LESSONS LEARNED J.L. Golden

POLYMERIC MATERIALS FOR SPACECRAFTS WITH NUCLEAR REACTOR. REQUIREMENTS FOR RADIATION TESTS. RUSSIAN NATIONAL STANDARD B.A. Briskman

Session 30: Future Launch Range Safety Chairs: P. Wilde & J.-P. Trinchero

AIR TRAFFIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR FUTURE SPACEPORTS D.P. Murray & R.E. Ellis

UNDERWATER OCEAN SONIC BOOM MODELING SUMMARY REPORT C.P. Griffice & J.C. Wang

PREDICTION OF EXPLOSIVE HAZARD POTENTIAL FOR REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES C.J. Freitas & S. Chocron

Session 31: Payload Safety Chairs: A. Larson & M. Ciancone

PAYLOAD INTEGRATED SAFETY ASPECTS T. Heller

HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE SERVICING MISSION 4 SAFETY - NEW, OLD, AND IMPROVED R. Dedalis, B. Jones & P. Mitchell

CERTIFICATION PROCESS FOR COMMERCIAL BATTERIES FOR PAYLOADS J.A. Jeevarajan

ACTIVITIES OF SYSTEM SAFETY FOR SATELLITE DEVELOPMENTS IN MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORPORATION Y. Mori, T. Kiyokawa, T. Gonai & H. Yamazaki

Session 32: Safety Risk Assessment – Part 3 Chairs: J. Fragola & S. Takada

ON-GROUND RISK ESTIMATION FOR SCIENTIFIC BALLOON FLIGHTS IN FRANCE N. Fuentes Dargelos-Descoubez

VALUING AND AGGREGATING EVIDENCE IN ASSESSING MISSION ALTERNATIVES: AN APPLICATION OF EVIDENCE EVALUATION W. Vesely

Session 33: Ground Safety Chairs: P. Kirkpatrick & J.-P. Trinchero

ANALYTICAL MODELING OF LOX/LH2 AND LOX/RP1 EXPLOSIONS A. Bavandi

PROPELLANT ANALYSIS AND DISTILLATION UNIT DESIGN M.H. Barragan, C. Spangler & L.K. Barrera

TRAINING THE CREW FOR SAFETY / SAFETY OF CREW TRAINING, AN INTEGRATED PROCESS J.-B. Marciacq & L. Bessone

DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVED INFORMATION ACCESS BY GROUND OPERATIONS TECHNICIANS B.S. Caldwell, K.S. Byrd & A. Savoy

Session 34: Space Material Safety – Part 3 Chairs: D. Griffin & A. de Rooij

NASA-STD-(I)-6016, STANDARD MATERIALS AND PROCESSES REQUIREMENTS FOR SPACECRAFT M.D. Pedley & D.E. Griffin

EVALUATION TEST RESULT OF THE FIRE CONTAINMENT CAPABILITY OF CONTAINERS S. Tachihara, N. Takeuchi & Y. Matsuo

MITIGATING AND PREVENTING THE GROWTH OF TIN AND OTHER METAL WHISKERS ON CRITICAL HARDWARE S. Barr

GUIDE FOR OXYGEN COMPATIBILITY ASSESSMENTS ON OXYGEN COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS K.R. Rosales, M.S. Shoffstall & J.M. Stoltzfus

Session 35: Spacecraft Re-entry – Part 1 Chairs: T. Lips & F. Alby

ARIANE-5 EPC RE-ENTRY — A COMPARISON OF OBSERVATIONS AND SCARAB SIMULATION RESULTS T. Lips, B. Fritsche, G. Koppenwallner & C. Leveau

RE-ENTRY SURVIVABILITY OF REACTION WHEEL DESIGNS B. Bialke

A MODERATE RISK, LOW MASS CONCEPT TO DE-ORBIT THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE USING AN ELECTRO-DYNAMIC TETHER J. Abrams

Session 36: Nuclear Safety for Space Systems Chairs: V.Favia & J. Dollberg

INADVERTENT EARTH REENTRY BREAKUP ANALYSIS FOR THE NEW HORIZONS MISSION L. Ling, A. Salama, M. Ivanov & A. McRonald

Session 37: Safety Risk Assessment – Part 4 Chairs: J. Fragola & T. Heimann

RELATIVE RISK EVALUATIONS OF CONCEPTUAL SPACECRAFT DESIGNS W. Vesely

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF RELIABILITY-ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS TO SPACE SYSTEM SAFETY AND RELIABILITY U.K. Rakowsky

Session 38: Launch Range Safety Chairs: J. Haber & F.Festa

RANGE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS AND METHODS FOR UNGUIDED SUBORBITAL ROCKET LAUNCHES P.D. Wilde

Session 39: Space Material Safety – Part 4 Chairs: S. Tachihara & K. McGinnis

OXYGEN CONCENTRATION FLAMMABILITY THRESHOLDS OF SELECTED AEROSPACE MATERIALS CONSIDERED FOR THE CONSTELLATION PROGRAM D.B. Hirsch, J.H. Williams, S.A. Harper, H. Beeson & M.D. Pedley

SAFELY CONTAINING FRANGIBLE MATERIALS USED IN SPACE FLIGHT EQUIPMENT K.S. Bernstein

Session 40: Spacecraft Re-entry – Part 2 Chairs: G. Ortega & T. Lips

VEHICLE BREAKUP/BURNUP ANALYSIS FOR AN ANOMALOUS STARDUST ENTRY IN THE EARTH RETURN PHASE M. Ivanov, L. Ling & A. Salama

RE-ENTRY RISK ASSESSMENT FOR LAUNCHERS – DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW SCARAB 3.1L T. Lips, B. Fritsche, M. Homeister, G. Koppenwallner, H. Klinkrad & M. Toussaint

COMMON RISK CRITERIA FOR U.S. NATIONAL RANGES -- AN UPDATE C. Cather & J.M. Haber

Additional Material LIST OF PARTICIPANTS (PDF)