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US, EU and Russian Space Policy

Past , present and future

Vis Viva society

07 August 2013

Philippe Carous

LLM in Air & Space Law (candidate)

Promotion 2013

University of Leiden, the Netherlands

mailto:philippecarous@gmail.com

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PLAN

. The global picture

» The three successive waves theory (A. Dupas) slide 4

» Legal and regulatory development (E. Sadeh) slide 5 . USA and Russia: past and present

» Space race (1955-1975): the facts slide 6

» Space race: the political analysis slide 7

» International cooperation and competition (1975-today) slide 14 . Europe: past and present

» Emergence and governance of space activities in Europe slide 17

» Progressive emergence of an EU space policy slide 18

» Definition, implementation and content of EU space policy slide 19

» Observation and political analysis slide 20 . The future of space activities slide 22 . Policy case: The Shuttle, Arianespace and Galileo slide 25 . Conclusion slide 26 . Some figures + bibliography

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PLAN

Past Present Future

USA

Slide 6-7

(1955-1975)

Slide 14

(1975-2013)

Slide 22

USSR /

Russia

Europe Slide 17-18-19-20

4

The three successive waves theory (A. Dupas)

1945 Today

Space exploration (1960’s) End space race

Teledetection (1970’s) Landsat 1

(1972)

Landsat 7

KH12

Telecommunication (1990’s)

Intelsat

(1964)

SES

(1985)

O3B

(2013)

2010 (ISS + China)

Corona (59-72)

A. Dupas, La nouvelle conquête spatiale (2010), p.16-17

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Legal and regulatory development (E. Sadey)

E. Sadeh, Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary

Perspective (2002), p.169-172.

1945 Today

Classical period

(1958-1980) Transitional period Modern period

UNCOPUOS (1958)

UN Res. (1961)

UN. Decl. (1963)

5 Space Treaties

Creation of binding

space international

law

New space technology

civil to commercial

Developing countries

Apparition of

commercial space law

Four major resolutions

(Nucl-TV-RemS-benef.)

Multilateral alliance (SL)

Domestic legislation

Renewal of (non-

binding) international

space law

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Space race (1955-1975): the facts Eisenhower (53-61)

Kennedy (61-63)

Jonhson (63-69)

Nixon (69-74)

Mercury (59-63)

Gemini (62-66)

Apollo (61-72)

Skylab (65-79)

Nuclear

Bomb

(49)

ICBM

R7

(57)

Sputnik

R7

(57)

Jupiter

No payload

(56)

Korolev

A4 to R1

(53)

Vanguard

« Flopnik »

(57)

Explorer 1

Von Bron

(58)

Vostok 1

Gagarin

(61)

NASA

(58)

Shepard

Sub-10 min

(61)

JFK

Speach - Moon

(61)

Vostok 2

24h + Contrl

(61)

Mariner 2

Venus

(62)

Ranger 7

Moon pics

(64)

Vostok 3 & 4

Simultanerous

(62)

Vostok 5 & 6

Woman + longest

(63)

4 Vostok

Voskhod

(62)

Voskhod 1

2 crew

(64)

Gemini

10 man mission

(64-66)

JFK

Proposal

(63)

Wednesday

Focuss on Moon

N1 secret (64)

Stalin (22-53)

Khrutchev (53-64)

Brehznev (64-82)

Vostok(61-63)

Voskhod (64-65)

Soyuz (65-71)

N1/L3(63-74)

Korolev

deceased

(66)

Soyuz 1

Parachute crash

(66)

Soyuz 11

Fatal accident

Salyout 1

(71)

Luna-9

Radiation

(66)

Apollo-Soyouz

Test Project

July 1975

Apollo 11

31 kgs

(69)

Apollo 14-17

(69-72)

1950 1960 1965 (…) 1970 1975 (…) (…) (…)

Voskhod 2

Spacewalk

(64)

Skylab

(65-79)

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Space race (1955-1975): the political analysis

USA USSR

The role of german engineering The role of german engineering

Eisenhower too prudent? The decision to launch Spoutnik

JFK the visionary? Focussed on ideological impact rather

than technological achievement (+ risks)

NASA = oversight authority Organizational problem

Transparency Opacity - Secret program (N-1)

USSR reaction after Apollo 11

Late but improving (Gemini)

What’s next?

Programmatic Vision?

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Operation Paperclip

(1944-45)

Redstone (52-54) Mercury, Shepard (61)

Saturn V (Apollo 11)

France: A8 Diamant A (65) A4(V2) R1 R7

ICBM

USSR

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Wernher von Bron

(1912-1977)

JFK visit to Cape

Canaveral (1963)

Apollo 11 splashdown in

Pacific (1969)

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Sergei Korolev (1907-1966)

‘’Korolev Cross’’

Soyouz flying to ISS (2008)

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Satellite picture

(1968)

N-1 Rocket

Last launch (1972)

106 sec.

N-1 Rocket Saturn V vs. N-1

Rocket

Lunar secret program (1966-1974)

12

speech

available

here

Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI)

-2 mission per year on the Shuttle

-1st and only mission in April 1991

(AF-675)

- Project abandoned in May 1993

Reagan “Star Wars” speech

(1983)

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Bourane-Energya secret program

(cancelled in 1993)

- 1st an only flight in 1988

- 3 hours in space + 2 orbits

- Destroy in 2002 in hangar accident

(+ 8 victims)

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From 1975 to 2013: competition and cooperation

USA USSR

- Shuttle program (Nixon, 1973), 1st

flight (1981) end (2011) + Skylab

- Salyut (1971-1986) – Mir (1986-2001) + EU and Canada (1973Spacelab )

- Bourane 1st flight = 1988 - Shuttle 1st flight = 1981

- Bourane replaced N-1 secret program

- Reagan « Star wars » speech in 83 - USSR collapsed in 1991

- Clinton: Russia to join ISS (1993) - Challenger + Mir (1995)

- Mir destructed in 2001 - 9/11 September (ITAR rules)

- Columbia accident (2003) Bush

Vision For Space Exploration (2004)

- Augustine report (2004)

- Soyouz = only access to ISS

- Obama policy (2004): innov. + comm.

No cooperation in military projects!

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Apollo–Soyuz Test Project

24 July 1975 Challenger + MIR

1995

ESA spacelab

1983 (signed 1973)

Saluyt 7 - 1982

(+ French Astronaut)

ISS: 84 (US) + EU/JAP/CAN (86) + RUSS (93) 2010 -2020?

Civil International cooperation and competition (1975-today)

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Augustine report (2009): the US flexible path

Available here (see page 40)

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FR-GE

NATIONAL

APPROACH

Symphony (1963)

FR-GE

Lisbon Treaty (2009)

Art.189 TFEU (mixed)

COM 1988

SEA (1987)

RTD title

Maastricht (1992)

RTD extended

FP7 (2007)

« Space and security »

External Action Service (2009) : CSDP

ESA (1975)

FP4-5-6

SATCOM - EO

EU – ESA FA (2004)

Space Council

GMES – GALILEO (2000)

(TEN program)

European Defence Agency (2004)

Military, defence and security applications

Other (untill mid 60’s)

ELDO / ESRO (1964)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL

APPROACH

SUPRA NATIONAL

APPROACH

Helios (1995-2009)

French + BE-GE-GR-SP-IT

2000

MIL or DUAL satellites

SAR-Lupe (GE)

Cosmo Skymed (IT)

Asterix (1965)

France (MIL)

Ariane (1979)

ESA project Europa II (1972)

1945 2010

1973

US restrictions

Emergence and governance of space activities in Europe

7th Council (2007)

ESP (EC-ESA)

MUSOS (MIL SAT)

By 2015 (EDA)

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. EU is a growing actor but no consensus on its future role

. Two turning points in the history of the European Space Policy

. In Europe, space activities are conducted at 3 levels

Kosovo war (1996) and failure of Galileo PPP (2007)

. The European Space Policy started as a purely intergovernmental

affair but gradually acquired supranational dimension

- GMES and GALILEO = flagship “test” programs / ESA = technical arm

- Diversity of national space policy logics (FR-GE-UK-IT)

- From FP4 and TRAN to Article 189 TFEU

- Space is a tool to conduct (new) EU policies (EA, Frontex, EDA, CFSP)

- However, there is a consensus on specific point (PR, ESA expertise, national program)

. The creation of ESA was not easy and favoured by the US attitude

Package deal (1973) + US restrictions to Symphony (1973)

Emergence of an European Space Policy

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Definition, goals, implementation and content of the ESP

DEFINITION

IMPLEMENTATION

CONTENT OF THE ESP Resolution of the Space

Council (2007) jointly

prepared by ESA-EC

Role of the EP

Coordination between NSA-

EC-ESA-EUMETSAT

ESP activities under

ESA-EU FA

GOALS

- Social

- Economic (EUROPE 2020+)

- Strategic (eco / pol

independance)

1. COPERNICUS (climate change) AND GALILEO

2. SECURE SPACE TO ACHIEVE SEC/DEF OBJECTIVES

- GMES MIL / DUAL / Frontex

- Making space infrastructure secure (SSA + COC)

- Pooling of MIL resources (MUSIS / EDA)

3. SPACE EXPLORATION

- ISS – Access to space (European launcher policy)

4. COMPETITIVENESS [189(2) TFEU]

- EU space industrial policy (PR, R§I, STAN, EU=client)

- SATCOM (60% turnover) and EU Digital Agenda

5. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

- Africa (GMES + EGNOS), COC, Bilat. (China, BRIC?)

- Climate change / humanitarian aid (EAS)

6. CLEAR GOVERNANCE [MS/ESA]

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.Parallel with the European Defence and Security Policy

(European Defence Agency only created in 2004)

.Optimism:

- ESA was created during the oil crisis (1975)

- “Europe will not be made all at once, or

according to a single plan” (R. Schuman, 1950)

.Shift towards total EU management of space in Europe

does not look acceptable – (mixed competence)

.ESP will increase (SST/EU20+) resources (€ + expert.)

Treaty modification?

.In Europe, activites are conducted at 3 different levels

(equilateral? Isoceles? Random?)

Observation and political analysis

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Illustration

National space activities budget in 2008 (Millions of EUR)

This chart illustrates the diversity with regard to national space policy within EU Member States

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The Future of space activities

Space sustainibility / Weaponization / Cooperation with China / Private

actors / budget constraints / Future of ISS / US leadership

USA EU RUSSIA

- Giant launcher?

- Flexible path?

- Commercial sector

- Transitional period

- Most advanced

- Space = military tool

- MoD vs NASA

- Space dominance

- ITAR?

- No more errors

- Future of ESA

- ATV to Orion with USA

- Institutional challenges

(not technical)

- Ariane VI

- Access to space?

- Arianespace, SES.

- UK?

- France – Italy -

Germany

- To continue ISS alone?

- Increased budget

- Behind USA

- Code of Conduct with

China

- Proton failure

(02.07.2013)!!!!!!

Attitude of CHINA will shape US policy (and vice versa)

CHINA replaced Russia as a new challenger

But no Kennedy’s “before the decade is out”

23 Shenzhou 5 (2003)

SpaceX – Dragon visits ISS (May 2012)

US Flexible Path (Augustine Report)

Columbia disaster (2003)

The Future of space activities

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GLOBALIZATION-COMMERCIALISATION-COOPERATION

Antares Rocket (Science Orbital Corp.)

21 April 2011

AJ26-58 engine (improved version of NK33) Russian Lunar N-1 Rocket (1966-1973)

NK15 Engine

(later NK33 improved version)

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Policy case

Arianespace (1980) Ariane program decided in 1973 (ESA CNES)

inaugural flight of Ariane 1 (1978)

First contract in 1979

Arianespace created in 1980 1st commercial LSP

impact of Challenger disaster (1986)

Ariane V critical period after inaugural flight failure

Starsem JU (Soyouz launched from Kourou)

New challenges: Ariane VI vs. SpaceX

Galileo (2000) Kosovo war and US downgrading policy

Strategic aspects

US opposition (letter of Rumsfeld)

China to join?

EU Internal institutionnal challenges

Currently implemented

Owned by the EU

Shuttle (1973-2011) Nixon: Apollo job is done, cut the plug

Nixon decides the Shuttle programm in 1973 (but abandon of Skylab)

EU to join financial efforts for Spacelab

RFA (53%), Italy (18%), France (10%)

All in one – reusable vehicle – one flight a week – 4 shuttles

Civ and Mil (Key Hole + SDI) – NASA (66%) MoD (34%)

3 satcoms paylod

Strategic error: abandon of other launcer Challenger (1986) benefit to Arianespace

Strategic error: no development of emergency spacecraft for ISS 100% rely on Soyouz

Design error? No ejection device (as opposed to Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Soyouz)

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Conclusion

Policies are defined by (social, military, economical, political)

needs and shapped by international law (principle of peaceful use

of Outer Space) new treaties?

China as a new challenger to replace Russia (but ASAT 2007!)

Budget contraints international cooperation

Future of ISS? Are space activities necessary? Christophe Columbus

Space = security and military aspects (ICBM, ITAR)

US space dominance/control (space weaponization)

Engineers to implement and propose

policies / politicians to make choices

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Some figures

Space governemental program in 2007 (billion USD)

A. Dupas, La nouvelle conquête spatiale (2010), p.52

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Some figures

Steve Bochinger (EUROCONSULT), Les marchés spatiaux: structure, tendances globales et

perspectives in Droit de l’espace, Larcier ed. (2009), pp. 36-40.

NASA budget in 2006 = 16 bn $ (55% of total civil expenses in the world)

ESA budget = 2,5 bn $ (15% of NASA budget)

US MoD budget = 21,5 bn $

NASA exploration costs up to 2016 = 104 bn $ (EU annual budget = 145 bn)

In comparaison:

- Price 1 satellite + launch: 450 million $

- Airbus A380 = 300 million $

- EU budget in 2012 = 147 bn EUR

- EADS revenue in 2012 = 57 bn EUR

- Boeing revenue in 2012 = 82 bn $\

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Bibliography

- A.Dupas, La nouvelle conquête de l’espace, Odile Jacob ed. (2010)

- M. J. Neufeld, Von Braun (2007)

- E. Sadeh, Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective (2002)

- J. P. Morin, La naissance d’Ariane (2009)

- R. Godwin, Russian Spacecraft, Pocket Space Guide (2006)

- X. Pasco, La politique spatiale des Etats Unis 1958-1995, L’Harmattan (1997)

- L. Marta, “”National visions of space European space governance”” in Space Policy 29

(2013)

- N. Peter, ‘’The EU emergent space diplomacy”, in Space Policy 23 (2007)

- K. Suzuki, Policy Logics and Institutions of European Space Collaboration (2002)

- P. Achilleas, Droit de l’espace, Larcier (2007)

- 2010 United States National Security Space Strategy (2011), in ZLW (2011) 264-279.

- S. Robinson, The 2010 United States National Space Policy, ZLW (2011) 534-550.

- European Space Policy progress report, COM (2008) 561 final

- Christian Lardier, La saga du Shutlle, Air & Cosmos, N°2275, 22 July 2011

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Question?

mailto:philippecarous@gmail.com

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