space weather impacts on aviation systems
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Space Weather Impacts onAviation Systems
Bill MurtaghNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
International Air Safety & ClimateChange Conference (IASCC)Cologne, 8-9 Sep, 2010
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Outline What is space weather
Customer growth/awareness The Solar Cycle Space Weather types and Impacts
Solar Flares (R Scale)
Radiation Storms (S Scale) Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) International activities
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Solar electromagnetic radiation and energetic particles impact
Earths Magnetosphere and Ionosphere, causing spaceweather disturbances.
Ionosphere
Magnetosphere
Electromagnetic
Radiation
EnergeticCharged Particles
Space Weather and the Space EnvironmentSpace Weather and the Space Environment
Galactic Cosmic Radiation
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Drivers for Space Weather ServicesDrivers for Space Weather Services
Growing demands for space weather products are
being driven by the increasingly complex evolution
of our global technological infrastructure
Evolving technologies:
Civil precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems
Power grids
Satellites (private and government)
Evolving customers and industries:
Commercial space enterprise
Arctic economic development
Airspace management needs
Global partnerships and opportunities
Evolving technologies:
Civil precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems
Power grids
Satellites (private and government)
Evolving customers and industries:
Commercial space enterprise
Arctic economic development
Airspace management needs
Global partnerships and opportunities
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Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) -FAA plan to modernize the National Airspace Systemthrough 2025.
SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) - Europeanair traffic control infrastructure modernization program
Modernization of International Airspace
System
SWPC currently working closely with NextGen team on spaceweather requirements
International colaboration on space weather services is vital
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The Sun at solar maximum
Sunspots and the Solar Cycle
~27 day full rotation
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Status of Solar Cycle Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN)
Cycle 23 began in May 1996 Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120
Solar minimum in December 2008
Solar Cycle 24 underway
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1859 Storm 1921 Storm
Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles
The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurredduring lower than average cycles
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NOAA Sp ace W eat h er Sca les NOAA Space W eat h er Sca les http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
Radiation Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
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Solar Flar esSolar Flar es
Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
Degradation of communication
- A violentexplosion in the Sun'satmosphere with an energy equivalentof a hundred million hydrogen bombs.
Aircraft OperationsGPS NetworkGround and Space-based
Communications Radar
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Communication Center:07Sep05 1800Z: Solar activity severely impacted all
HF comms. Higher frequencies utilized with littleeffect. 24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATCmessages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Zand 1939Z.. Severe operational impact.
The flare resulted insignificant impacts to thenetwork of air trafficcontrol radars inCanada, causing false
targets and interferencein the N/S direction onscales of approximately150 miles in length.
D-region HF Communications plot at ARINC Center at SFO
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Solar Flare Impact on GPS
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So lar Rad iat ion St o r m s So lar Rad iat ion St o r m s
Solar Radiation Storms (S-scale) cause
extended periods (hours to days) of HFcomm blackouts at higher latitudes.
Open
Open
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Low latitude concerns also exist:
ALERT: Solar Radiation Alert atFlight Altitudes Conditions Began:2003 Oct 28 2113 UTC
Comment:Satellitemeasurements indicateunusually high levels of ionizingradiation, coming from the sun.This may lead to excessiveradiation doses to air travelers atCorrected GeomagneticLatitudes above 35 degreesnorth, or south.
(Federal Aviation Administration)
Airlines avoid polar routes duringRadiation Storms due to both
exposure and communicationsconcerns
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Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)propagate through space at 2-3million mph
Impact Earth in 20 - 90 hours
Geomagnetic Storm begins whenCME impacts Earth
Geom agn et i c St o r m s Geom agne t i c St o rm s
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CZEG EDMONTON CENTRE (ACC)
A8577/03 - ROUTE AND LEVEL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO GEO-MAGNETIC STORM
IMPACT ON COMM IN EDMONTON ACC ALL FLT TRANSITING CZEGFIR N OF 5700N AT FL290 OR ABOVE: 1. NORTHBOUND POLAR FLT
PROCEEDING OVER DEVID, ORVIT
ARE ADVISED THAT VHF AND HF COMM RELAYED FROM THETRANS SITE TO ATC VIA SATELLITE MAY FAIL DUE TO THEEFFECTS OF THE CURRENT INTENSE MAGNETIC STORM.
Geomagnetic storms also impact communications primarily HF comm in high and polar latitudes.
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Geomagnetic StormGeomagnetic Stormimpact on GPS
For 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003, the ionosphere was so disturbed that the
vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters, wasexceeded.
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JANUARY 2005 United Airlines
26 FLIGHTS OPERATED ON LESS THAN OPTIMUM POLAR ROUTES DUE TOSOLAR ACTIVITY
CHICAGO TO HONG KONG ANCHORAGE STOP 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS,PENALTY 180 TO 210 MINUTES
CHICAGO TO BEIJING PENALTIES 18 TO 55 MINUTES
BEIJING TO CHICAGO PENALTIES 55 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES
Impact on Airlines January 2005
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Space Weather in the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO)
International Civil Aviation Organization Divisional Meeting (2002)- Space weather recognized as a hazard to aviation.
Two significant operational issues in international air navigationrequire the ICAO to address space weather:o Significant increase in polar operationso Increased use of GNSS for navigation
These issues were brought to the ICAO Air NavigationCommission (ANC). ANC suggested that space weather beaddressed by the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations
Group (IAVWOPSG).
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At the 5th meeting of the IAVWOPSG in Peru, March2010, the U.S. presented the Manual on Space Weather
Effects in Regard to International Air Navigation
Working Paper presented on the Developmentof Operational Requirements for Space Weather Information
Space Weather in the International CivilAviation Organization
Group formed to address space weather requirements that includes: Argentina,Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States(Rapporteur), IATA, IFALPA and IFATCA, in consultation with ICAO and WMO.
Develop draft operational requirements for space weather, including draft guidancematerial (on use of products), as necessary.
Prepare a report with milestones for the development and roll-out of space weatherservice for international aviation, for consideration by the IAVWOPSG/6.
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WMO UN system's authoritative voice on the state and behavior ofthe Earth's atmosphereextends now to the space environment!
June 08: Executive Council (EC-LX) endorsed principle of WMO
activities in support of space weather.
Space Weather in the World MeteorologicalOrganization
April 09: WMO Commission on Basic Systems
(CBS) agreed to Terms of Reference of Inter-
program Coordination Team on Space Weather
(ICTSW) with CBS-CAeM (Commission for
Aeronautical Meteorology) co-leadership.
Sept 09: Circular letter to 188 WMO members,
ICAO, IMO, ITU, ESA, COPUOS informed on ICTSW,
proposed participation, invited POC
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Radiation storm prediction the challenges facing forecasters
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
SWPC: www.spaceweather.gov
SWPC Alerts/Warnings: www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html(includes link to Product Subscription Service)
SWPC Data and Products: www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/index.html
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Technological Development
R
IS
K
Space weather storms have global impacts,and the UN now recognizes the increasing
need to monitor and manage this risk.
The UN wants to include space weather inkey UN agencies to facilitate cooperation in
global economic development, and social
progress.
Opportunity for ISES to play key role inglobal efforts to meet space weather needs of
rapidly evolving aviation industry
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Polar Route Passenger Movement
2004 2009 2014 2019
Capacity 228,000 384,000 972,000 1,768,000
Avg. Annual
Growth Rate
13.9% 20.4% 12.7%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Nu
mberofFlights
J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00 J-00
Year
Polar Movement Totals
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cross Polar AviationCross Polar Aviation
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ACREM - Air Crew Radiation Exposure Monitoring
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Warnings and Alerts to supportairline space weather products
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FAA publication "Galactic Cosmic Radiation
Exposure of Pregnant Aircrew Members II80+ hours flying time per month on a high latitude
would result in exposure of .57 millisieverts per
month which would exceed the .5 millisieverts ICRPmonthly recommendation for a pregnant person,and in two months would exceed the total limit for
the term of the pregnancy i.e. 1 millisievert.
The situation is unchanged. Galactic cosmic radiation on high-altitude, high-latitude flights can accumulate to exceed the 500 mSv monthly dose limitrecommended by the NCRP.
Wallace Friedberg, Ph.D.Civil Aerospace Medical InstituteFederal Aviation AdministrationOklahoma City, OK 73125
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For a pregnant crewmember, the recommended limit forthe fetus is an equivalent dose of 1 mSv, with no more
than 0.5 mSv in any month. The legal dose limit for thepublic (airline passengers) is 1 mSv per year.
It would be extremely rare for any single Solar EnergeticProton (SEP) event to produce dose rates exceeding theoccupational exposure limits of 20 mSv per year.However, there are approximately 3-5 SEP events over
the 11-year solar cycle, where exposure issues becomea concern for passengers and pregnant crew members.
ESKOM (S h Af i ) N k S i T f
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Station 4 Transformer 6 HV winding failure
Station 3 Transformer 6 LV exit lead overheating
Station 5 Transformer 2 HV winding failure
Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 overheatingStation 3 Gen Transformer 4 damage
ESKOM (South Africa) Network reports - 5 Stations, 15 Transformersdamaged
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$1-2 Trillion Cost of blackout
4-10 years - Recovery time
Worst Case
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Radiation storms are infrequent during the solar minimum years
>10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sun
spotNumber
0
5
10
15
20
25
#of>10MeVRad
iationStorms
Solar Radiation StormsSolar Radiation Storms(NOAA S-scale)
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32
GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFIC
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ref: Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport, JADC
RevenuePassengerKilometres(B
illions)
North America
Europe
Asia / Pacific
Others
FORECASTACTUAL
4
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Solar Flare Radio BlackoutsSolar Flare Radio Blackouts(NOAA R-scale)
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Solar Radiation StormsSolar Radiation Storms(NOAA S-scale)
The NOAA space weather radiation scale is based on >10 MeV protons measuredon the GOES spacecraft
G S O G
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Geomagnetic StormsGeomagnetic Storms(NOAA G-scale)
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Eurocontrol Studying Effects Of Solar Events OnGNSS Signals.
Inside GNSS
(7/1) , "Eurocontrol, Europe's air traffic control agency, is
studying the effect of solar events on civil aviation
applications and developing ways to maintain air safetywhen GNSS signals are affected." This is a "key" issue,according to the article, for the Single European Sky ATMResearch (SESAR) program which will update Europe's air
traffic control system. "Eurocontrol has contacted withFrench engineering consultants Egis Avia to study the effectof ionospheric disturbances on GNSS-based applications fordifferent phases of flight, then develop and test mitigationtechniques.
Inside GNSS
http://mailview.custombriefings.com/mailview.aspx?m=2010070201aiaa&r=2913954-cede&l=020-9e7&t=c>
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Di i 96/29/E I i i
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Directive 96/29/Euratom Ionizing
Radiation
Establishes uniform basic safety standards toprotect the health of workers and the generalpublic against the dangers of ionising radiation.
Article 42 of the Directive imposes requirementsrelating to the assessment and limitation of aircrew members' exposure to cosmic radiation.