spatial electric load forecasting - gbv
TRANSCRIPT
Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Second Edition, Revised and Expanded
H. Lee Willis ABB Inc.
Raleigh, North Carolina
M A R C E L
11 T-> u . ^ NEW YORK • BASEL MARCEL DEKKER, INC. 1 N t w
Contents
Series Introducüon Preface
1 Spatial Electric Load Forecasting
1.1 Spatial Load Forecasting 1.2 T&DPlanning 1.3 Requirements for a T&D Load Forecast 1.4 Summary
References
2 Consumer Demand for Power and Reliability
2.1 The Two Qs: Quality and Quantity of Power 2.2 Electric Consumer Demand for Quantity of Power 2.3 Eiectric Consumer Demand for Quality of Power 2.4 Two-Q Analysis: Quantity and Quality versus Cost 2.5 Conclusion and Summary
References
xii Contents
3 Coincidence and Load Behavior 73
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Peak Load, Diversity, and Load Curve Behavior 11 3.3 Measunng and Modeling Load Curves 3.4 Summary 85
References 94 94
95 1 Load Curve and End-Use Modeling
4.1 End-Use Analysis of Electric Load 4.2 The Basic "Curve Adder" End-Use Model , tl 4.3 Advanced End-Use Models I 0 2
4.4 Application of End-Use Models 1 0 9
45 SenSs1"1'16111^ *""'* LOad C™ M°del S 126
Weather and Electric Load 5.1 Introduction 129 5.2 Weather and Its Measurement I 2 9
5.3 Weather's Variation with Time and Place lll 5.4 Weather and Its Impact on Electric Demand \ll
References J 4 7 165
6.2 Extreme Weather 1 6 7
6.3 Standardized Weather "Design Criteria" ! f
6.8 Summary and Guidelines *-™lt*>. 197 References 2 0 °
202
Contents xiti
7 Spatial Load Growth Behavior 203
7.1 Introduction 203 7.2 Spatial Distribution of Electric Load 204 7.3 Small Area Load Growth Behavior 211 7.4 Summary 228
References 229
8 Spatial Forecast Accuracy and Error Measures 231
8.1 Introduction 231 8.2 Spatial Error: Mistakes in Location 232 8.3 Spatial Frequency Perspective on Error Impact 245 8.4 Conclusions and Guidelines 257
References 259
9 Trending Methods 261
9.1 Introduction 261 9.2 Trending Using Polynomial Curve Fit 262 9.3 Improvements to Regression-Based Curve Fitting Methods 273 9.4 Other Trending Methods 293 9.5 Summary 300
References 301
10 Simulation Method: Basic Concepts 303
10.1 Introduction 303 10.2 Simulation of Electric Load Growth 304 10.3 Land-Use Growth: Cause and Effect 314 10.4 Quantitative Models of Land-Use Interaction 321 10.5 Summary of Key Concept 324
References 324
11 A Detailed Look at the Simulation Method 325
11.1 Introduction 325
xiv Contents
11.2 Springfield 11.3 TheForecast 6
11.4 Critique and Commentary on Manual Simulation « o References J o y
372
12 Basics of Computerized Simulation
13 Analytical Building Blocks for Spatial Simulation
14 Advanced Elements of Computerized Simulation
15 Hybrid Trending-Simulation Methods
15.1 Introduction 15.2 Using Information in a Spatial Forecast 15.3 Land-Use Classified Multivariate Trending (LCMT) 15.4 Extended Template Matching (ETM)
373
373 374
12.1 Introduction 12.2 Overall Structure and Common Features 12.3 Small Area Spatial Module 12.4 Top-Down Structure *Z
12.5 Summary and Conclusion References and Bibliography 393
394
397
13.1 Introduction 13.2 Land-Use Input-Output Matrix Model 13.3 Activity Center Gravity Models 13.4 Consumer-Class Spatial Allocation Using Preference Matching 7\l
References and Bibliography
397 397 405
421
14.1 Introduction 14.2 Simulation Program Structure and Function 14.3 Fast Methods for Spatial Simulation 14.4 Growth Viewed as a Frequency Domain Process 14.5 Summary
References 445
421 421 436 441
447
447 448 451 455
Contents xv
15.5 SUSAN - A Simulation-Driven Trending Method 462 15.6 Summary and Guidelines 474
References 475
16 Advanced Demand Methods: Multi-Fuel and Reliability Models 477
16.1 Introduction 477 16.2 Simultaneous Modeling of Multiple Energy Types 478 16.3 Spatial Value-Based Analysis 494 16.4 Conclusion 504
References 505
17 Comparison and Selection of Spatial Forecast Methods 507
17.1 Introduction 507 17.2 Classification of Spatial Forecast Methods 508 17.3 Comparison Test ofNineteen Spatial Forecast Methods 513 17.4 Data and Data Sources 533 17.5 Selecting a Forecast Method 540 17.6 Example Selection of a Spatial Forecast Method by a Utility 548
References 565
18 Development Dimensionality: Urban, Rural and Agrarian Areas 569
18.1 Introduction 569 18.2 Regional Types and Development Dimension 571 18.3 Forecasting Load Growth in Rural Regions 577 18.4 Forecasting Load Growth in Agrarian Regions 586 18.5 Summary and Guidelines 590
Reference 590
19 Metropolitan Growth and Urban Redevelopment 591
19.1 Introduction 591 19.2 Redevelopment Is the Process of Urban Growth 592 19.3 Representing Redevelopment in Spatial Forecasts 603 19.4 Eight Simulation Approaches to Redevelopment Forecasting 606
xvi Contents
IM SR Z ^ n d a , / M S f O ^ M < , d e l Ü , 8 R e d e V e , « " " " » « ' ' - 626
References 629
21
630
631 20 Spatia. Load Forecasting in Deveioping Economies
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Modeiing Load Growth Due to Latent Demand 5?! 20.3 Example Latent Demand Forecast 6 3 4
20.4 New-City Load Growth 643 20.5 Summary and Guidelines 6 6 0
673 Using Spatial Forecasting Methods Well
21.1 Introduction 21.2 Forecast Application 673 21.3 Calibration of a Spatial Forecast Model 6 7 4
2 5 J a r r t ^ ^ T ** U s i " 8 S i m u l a t i ° " P^grams Well 2 21.5 Partial-Region Forecast Situations 6 9 5
22 Recommendations and Guidelines
22.1 Introduction 22.2 Spatial Forecasting Priorities 7 ! 7
22 4 ^ ° , r e , : d a t i 0 n S f ° r S u c c e s s f i " Forecasting 111 22.4 Pitfalls to Avoid s 720 22.5 How Good Is Good Spatial Forecasting? 7 3 °
Index
716
717
739