spatial icts for risk identification and risk reduction:three geographic scales and three challenges
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International Day for Disaster Reduction at the World Bank Disaster Risk Management in the Information Age A joint training workshop by GICT, GFDRR, infoDev and LCSUW to mark the International Day for Disaster ReductionTRANSCRIPT
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Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction:
Three geographic scales and three challenges
Uwe DeichmannDevelopment Research GroupWorld Bank, Washington DC
International Day on Disaster Risk Reduction at the World Bank
Disaster Risk Management in the Information AgeOctober 8-9, 2008
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ICTs are widely used, but challenges remain
• Successful shift from disaster response to risk reduction
• Bank support for risk analysis and risk management at all spatial scales
• Spatial ICTs play a central role
• GIS, GPS, remote sensing – linked by internet and other communication technologies
• But: Technology is not the main problem. The bottlenecks are institutional!
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Bank initiatives at three geographic scales
• Global natural disaster risk
• Country catastrophic risk assessment
• Local risk identification
• Awareness raising, priority setting, screening tool
• Improving baseline information, methodologies, tools
• Support specific interventions: mitigation & transfer
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The standard risk assessment modelapplies across spatial scales
Hazard probability
Exposure Vulnerability
Damages
Losses
Mitigation orrisk transfer
people, assets social/econ/physconditions
geophysicaldrivers
policy analysis, costs/benefits
e.g., average annual losses,loss exceedance curves
damage ratios
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Combining information on hazards …Severe Storms, 1981 - 2000
World Bank/Columbia University: Natural Disaster Hotspots Study 2005based on storm track data compiled by UNEP-GRID GenevaCyclone Frequency
Global Analysis: Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots
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… and exposure …Population distribution
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… to generate risk profilesMulti-hazard mortality risk hotspots
Updated global analysis forthcoming in the
UN/WB Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009
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Country catastrophic risk assessment
• Operational risk assessments
– E.g., Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment
– National level assessments in hotspot countries
• Knowledge management: tools and guidance
– MIRISK open source tool for risk assessment and guidelines on what to do about it
– “Guidance Note for Common Country Catastrophic Risk Assessment Methodology (C3RAM)”, GFDRR
– Post disaster information sharing: “Using Data for Disaster Response” (PREM/GFDRR)
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Local risk identification:Use of very high resolution satellite data
• Image derived physical risk factors and exposure data
• Complements GPS field data collection
• Supports local risk identification
• Case studies: Legaspi (Phl) and Sana'a (Yem)
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Challenges
• Capacity
– Insufficient at local levels
– Leading to highly centralized disaster management
• Coordination
– Inter-agency coordination within countries
– Internationally (UN/national/NGOs) during disaster response
• Content
– Data and tools: limited access and black box models
– Data readiness
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What to do
• Capacity
– Learn from decentralization of other government functions
– Invest in learning at the local level
• Coordination
– Use mix of incentives and enforcement while minimizing coordination costs (e.g., spatial data infrastructure)
– High level agreements on binding protocols for IT use during disaster response
• Content
– Invest in data and analytical tools as public goods
– Ensure data readiness well before disaster strikes