Special Event: Special Event: GLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODSGLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODSClimate Information in support Climate Information in support

of Adaptation Planningof Adaptation Planning

Global Change and Floods

Flood Policy Robustness under Uncertainty

Dr. Wolfgang E. Grabs

World Meteorological Organization

wgrabs@wmo.int

World Climate Conference - 3

and at the same time poses great risks

Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages

Challenges of Flood Management

Climate Variability and Change

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w.aw

itness.org

cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/

Changes in the decision

making processes(Community Participation)

Absolute safety from flooding is a myth

Projected impacts of climate change

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranea and Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

The Context: The Context: WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood

Management (APFM)Management (APFM)Support countries in the Support countries in the

integrated management of floodsintegrated management of floods

Within the framework of Integrated Water Within the framework of Integrated Water Resources ManagementResources Management

Integrated Flood Management Integrated Flood Management (IFM)(IFM)

Integrated Flood Management (IFM) refers to the integration of land and water management in a river basin using a combination of measures that

focus on coping with floods within a framework of IWRM and adopting risk management principles,

while recognizing that floods have beneficial impacts and can never be fully controlled.

Key elements of IFM• Managing the water cycle as a whole• Integration of land and water management• Best (Harmonized)-mix of strategies • Participatory approach• Integrated natural hazard impact mitigation

Regional pilot projectsRegional pilot projects

• Pilot projects were executed in – South Asia, (Nepal, India, Bangladesh)

– Africa, (Kenya, Zambia)

– South America, (Brazil, Uruguay) and – Central and Eastern Europe (Poland,

Romania, Slovakia)

• through GWP/ WMO regional and national networks

• Aim of pilot projects: develop and implement IFM concept and its application through demonstration.

Flood Management Policy SeriesFlood Management Policy Series

• Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM

• Expert-group based• Peer-reviewed• Specific target groups

– Policy Makers– Flood Managers– Experts in respective

special fields

• language and format adapted to target group

Water related policies and Water related policies and the adaptation challengethe adaptation challenge

• Integrated Water Resources Management

• Integrated Flood Management

• Integrated Coastal Zone Management

• ...... Robust: not event driven, cross sectoral integration of development

policy goals for current and future needs

Flexible: not based on one scenario only, best-mix of measures

Adaptive: able to function under uncertainty and adjust the management approach based on the outcomes of implemented strategies and taking into account new realities

Policy Robustness Impacts

Affected parameters in relation to water

Snow cover storage, seasonality of flows

Evapotranspiration, Freshwater availability

Evapotranspiration freshwater & coolingwater availability

Streamflow, flood frequency, sediment transport, slope stability

Freshwater availability

Stormsurge frequency

IFM Policy Principles conducive to sustainable adaptation policies

-Balanced outlook on technical storage options including linkages to energy production and greenhouse gas emmissions

- Combined flood and drought management plans, IWRM as framing concept

- Food security and livelihood focus

- Managing all floods (smaller and extremes, riverine and coastal)

- Flood Risk Management and multihazard outlook

- Productive use of flood waters

- Best mix of structural and non-structural options

-Participatory and river basin approach

Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective

S c ie nc e a nd A sse ssm e nt B e fo r e the fa c t:P r e p a r e d ne ss

A fte r the fa c t:R e lie f

C lim a te V a r ia b ilityC o p ing S tr a te g ie s

Science of Climate

Useful knowledge

Broad Sector Studies

Decision making under uncertainty

Climate only one input!

Design of local strategies

Incorporation intopractice

Training & policy shift

Disaster Relief Management

Current Barriers

New Technologies andPolitical ‘will’

Model-simulated changes in extreme rainfall in southern England

30-yearevent

12-yearevent

4-yearevent

18602000

2090

Adapting (generic)

Improve technology access

Institutional reform

Improved equity

Access to information

Build social capital

Access to wealth creation

Adapting (specific)

Mainstreaming adaptation

Natural resource management

New technology

Disaster planning

Retrofit existing structures

Build resilience/resistance

Autonomous adaptation

Assess risk

Manage risk

No adaptation

Autonomous adaptation

Critical risk

Coping range → Adaptive capacity

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigative capacity ←

Danger

Adapting (transformative)Replace activity

Abandon activity

Transform activity

Source: Roger N. Jones - CSIRO

So how do we cope?So how do we cope?

Scope for Scope for adaptive adaptive integrated integrated flood flood managementmanagement

Mean historic climatology

Ran

ge o

f cl

imat

e va

riabi

lity

Present-day range of adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity under CC – option I

Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity out-of-range under out-of-range under CC – option IICC – option II

Need for adaptive Need for adaptive integrated flood integrated flood managementmanagement

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY UNDER CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

POLICY CONCEPT AND CLIMATE INFORMATION

• IFM is a development policy concept that is flexible and robust enough to fully integrate a climate change adaptation perspective (« autonomous » adaptation option)

Applying IFM principles in adaptation process reduces the risk of mal – adaptation

• Key research areas remain– non-stationarity in hydrological time series and implications on

flood management, – projections of precipitation and streamflow in different CC

scenarios

• Increased use of climate information in water resources management on seasonal to interannual time scales as a major opportunity of the next decade

Climate Research and

Modeling

Climate Services Information System

Sectoral Users

User Interface Programme

Observations and

Monitoring

Global Framework for Climate ServicesGlobal Framework for Climate ServicesComponentsComponents

Health

Agriculture

Transport

Tourism

Water

Energy

Ecosystem

Government

Private SectorWMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management

A facility that provides guidance on flood management policy, strategy, and

institutional development related to flood issues to countries that want to adopt

the IFM concept

IFM HelpDeskIFM HelpDesk

No Disaster Assistance or Flood Emergency Response Functions !!!

Objectives of the HelpDeskObjectives of the HelpDesk

• Provide quick accessquick access to relevant flood management information;

• Provide guidance and momentum for reformguidance and momentum for reform in favour of IFM in countries or river basins in developing flood management policies, strategies and institutional arrangements;

• Serve as a link between flood management practitioners and decision-makers and multi-multi-disciplinary scientific expertise and best practicedisciplinary scientific expertise and best practice

• Provide a continuous and sustainable capacity sustainable capacity development mechanismdevelopment mechanism in support of IFM implementation.

Service Spectrum

Service Spectrum (cont.)

HelpDesk Target AudienceHelpDesk Target Audience

• Government officialsGovernment officials involved in decision making at various levels of Government, charged with a role in flood management

• River Basin OrganizationsRiver Basin Organizations

• Bi- and Multilateral Organizations involved in Development Organizations involved in Development CooperationCooperation

• UN System organizationsUN System organizations with interest in flood management

• Non-Governmental OrganizationsNon-Governmental Organizations working with flood affected communities, Voluntary and Community-based Organizations

• Universities,Universities, esp. for curriculum design

Support Base partners……Support Base partners……

…and more to join