special presentation for fidelity investments · 2020-05-01 · special presentation for fidelity...
TRANSCRIPT
Special Presentation forFidelity Investments
Yardeni Research, Inc.
April 13, 2016
Dr. Edward YardeniPresident
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments
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© Copyright Yardeni Research, Inc. 2016. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and itsaccuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Additional Information Available on Request.
Doc: PRESENTFIDELITY Assembled Tuesday, 04/12/2016 08:17 PM
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161.0
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Figure 1.US 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD(percent, daily)
Yield (1.79)
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Source: Haver Analytics.
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
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Figure 2.US 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD(percent, monthly)
Yield (1.89)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-4
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Figure 3.US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH
Nominal GDP(yearly percent change) (3.12)
10-Year US TreasuryBond Yield(percent) (1.89)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-8
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Figure 4.SPREAD BETWEEN US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH*
Spread (-0.93)
* 10-year bond yield minus yearly percent change in nominal GDP.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.0
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Figure 5.EUROZONE: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent, daily)
Spain (1.54)
France (0.46)Germany (0.11)Italy (1.42)
Source: Haver Analytics.D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro.
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-.5
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Figure 6.10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent, daily)
Germany (0.11)
Sweden (0.49)Japan (-0.09)
UK (1.52)US (1.79)
France (0.46)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2
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Figure 7.CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY(yearly percent change)
Eurozone (1.0)
United States (2.3)
Japan (0.8)
Source: Statistical Office of European Communities and Statistisches Bundesamt.
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
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Figure 8.AGE WAVE, INFLATION, & BOND YIELD IN THE US
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield***
Inflation Trend**
Age Wave*
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.
*** Five-year moving average of ten-year government bond yield.
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1.5
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Figure 9.US 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS(percent, daily)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
10-Year TIPS Yield (0.22)
10-Year Bond Yield (1.79)
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.0
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Figure 10.EXPECTED INFLATION IN 10-YEAR TIPS*(percent, daily)
Expected Inflation (1.57)
* Nominal minus TIPS yield.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20173
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Figure 11.US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BOND COMPOSITE(percent)
Yield (8.19)
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
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Figure 12.YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR TREASURY(basis points)
Spread (640)
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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