special study usdnok - 07.10.2011
TRANSCRIPT
MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected]
SPECIAL FOCUS USD/NOK – Scope for a further extension higher from the current region.
By Bijoy Kar, CFA www.migbank.com
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SPECIAL FOCUS 7 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
USD/NOK – Medium-term structure warns of an extension higher.
USD/NOK based at 5.2174 at the beginning of May after a minor break
below the support of a falling channel. This was followed by a substantial
recovery which broke above the resistance of the same channel confirming
the break down to 5.2174 as a false break lower.
A period of consolidation then followed in a tight 5.3144-5.6318 band
which resulted in a deep retrace of the initial recovery. September then
saw a substantial swing higher amid US Dollar safe haven buying and the
associated weakness in oil saw a sustained break over the 200 day moving
average.
After peaking at 5.9738 a period of consolidation/retrace appears to be
developing. Assuming global growth continues to moderate and the price
of oil remains weak, we see scope for an eventual continuation of US Dollar
strength to target 6.2370 and then 6.7281. Thus, while above 5.6318 and
the 200 day moving average (currently at 5.5616), scope is seen for the
creation of a higher low for an initial re-test of 5.9738.
The ideal location for long positioning lies near the key low at 5.6926,
where a higher low would be favoured to form. The clear risks to this
strategy are a stabilisation in the Eurozone credit crisis, which would likely
lead to a weakening of the US Dollar and an associated strengthening of
oil prices. In the mean time long positioning is favoured with stops
suggested under 5.5447 and scope for an eventual return to
6.2370/6.7281.
EUR/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/NOK
USD/NOK daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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SPECIAL FOCUS 7 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
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SPECIAL FOCUS 7 October, 2011
www.migbank.com Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00
MIG BANK [email protected] www.migbank.com
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