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© 2004

Jolt to the System:The Transformative Impact

of Nanotechnology

Jolt to the System:The Transformative Impact

of Nanotechnology

Mike Treder

Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Troy, New York November 16, 2004



© 2004

Industrial Revolutions

SecondSecond RevolutionRevolution

(1840–1900)(1840–1900)

Based inBased in EuropeEurope – –

England, France, Germany England, France, Germany

RailwaysRailways

Steel IndustrySteel Industry



© 2004


ThirdThird RevolutionRevolution

(1900–1950)(1900–1950)

Based inBased in United StatesUnited States

Electric EngineElectric Engine

Heavy ChemicalsHeavy Chemicals

AutomobilesAutomobiles

Consumer DurablesConsumer Durables



© 2004


FourthFourth RevolutionRevolution

(1950–Present)(1950–Present)

Based inBased in Pacific BasinPacific Basin – –California, JapanCalifornia, Japan

SyntheticsSynthetics

Organic Chemicals (Oil)Organic Chemicals (Oil)

ComputersComputers



© 2004

FifthFifth RevolutionRevolution

(2010? – ??)(2010? – ??)

Based in Developing World? Based in Developing World?

China? India? Brazil? China? India? Brazil?

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

Molecular ManufacturingMolecular Manufacturing

The Next Industrial Revolution


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S o c i e t a

l

I m

p a c t s

Time

Accelerated Impacts


Molecular

Manufacturing

Revolution



The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be a jolt to the system.

Jolt to the System

Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler



The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be a jolt to the system.

Jolt to the System

Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios

A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to

ecological, economic, political, and social systems —

on a local, national, and global scale.



The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal theIndustrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but

with all that change compressed into just a few years.

Transformative Impact



The Next Revolution

Not just new products — a new means of production

Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing

systems — exponential proliferation

Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap

rapid prototyping

Affects all industries and economic sectors —

general-purpose technology

Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital

cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption

Impacts will cross borders — global transformation



Inside aNanofactory



Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical robotsor

Untraceable weapons of massdestruction

Networked computers for everyone in the world

or Networked cameras so governmentscan watch our every

move

Trillions of dollars of abundance

or A vicious scramble to

own everything

Rapid invention of wondrous products

or Weapons development fast enough to

destabilize any arms race



Dangers

Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products

Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices

Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use

Constant intrusive surveillance

Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles

Unstable arms race leading to war

Collective environmental damage from unregulated products

Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks)

Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)

. . . and many more



What is Needed Now

Awareness of the issues

Technical research Policy research



CRNRN Thir t y Essen tia

l S tudies

Chris Phoeni x, Direc tor o f Research

Cen ter for Responsible Nano tec

hnolog y

Cop yrigh t 200 4 Cen ter for Resp

onsible Nano technolog y

Brookl yn, N Y, USA

CRNRN Thir t y Essen tia

l S tudies

Chris Phoeni x, Direc tor o

f Research

Cen ter for Responsible Nano tec

hnolog y

Cop yrigh t 200 4 Cen ter for Respo

nsible Nano technolog y

Brookl yn, N Y, USA



www.Wise-Nano.org

A collaborative project to study the facts and

implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website

for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to

build an understanding of the technologies, their

effects, and what to do about them.

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