spirit of houston past 372,207 vehicles oct ’14
TRANSCRIPT
Spirit of Houston Past
'04 7/04 '05 7/05 '06 7/06 '07 7/07 '08 7/08 '09 7/09 '10 7/10 '11 7/11 '12 7/12 '13 7/13 '14 7/14 '152.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll, Houston Metro Area, '04 - '15
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Empl
oym
ent
(mill
ions
) 463,800 jobs created since the bottom of the recession
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13
375.4 402.4447.9
489.2 517.4Metro Houston GDP – $ Billions
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
'04 7/04 '05 7/05 '06 7/06 '07 7/07 '08 7/08 '09 7/09 '10 7/10 '11 7/11 '12 7/12 '13 7/13 '14 7/14 '1550
60
70
80
90
100Home Sales, 12-Month Moving Total
Source: Houston Association of Realtors
Hom
es (0
00s)
90,836 homesOct ’14
'04 7/04 '05 7/05 '06 7/06 '07 7/07 '08 7/08 '09 7/09 '10 7/10 '11 7/11 '12 7/12 '13 7/13 '14 7/14 '15200
240
280
320
360
400
Vehicle Sales, 12-Month Moving Total
Source: Houston Association of Realtors
Vehi
cles
(000
s)
372,207 vehiclesOct ’14
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13
65.8
80.6
104.5110.3 114.9Houston Exports - $ Billions
Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 -YTD
$61.95
$79.48$94.88 $94.05 $97.98 $93.82
Average Price of Crude - $/Barrel
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14*
5,860 5,392 5,380
10,936
19,24921,870
Texas Oil Wells Completed
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14*
944 978 1,079
1,457
1,9262,198
Texas Avg. Daily Production(Barrels/Day, 000s)
Source: Texas Railroad Commission *estimate
Spirit of Houston Present
Jun Jun 24, 2014 Jul 17, 2014 Aug 08, 2014 Sep '14 Sep 24, 2014 Oct 16, 2014 Nov 07, 2014 Dec 02, 201460
70
80
90
100
110Spot Price, West Texas Intermediate
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
$ Pe
r Ba
rrel
Impact of Crude Price Drop on Cash FlowsTexas Production (Daily Avg.) 2.0 million barrels
WTI Price Drop Since June $46.10
Lost Potential Revenue
Daily $92.2 million
Monthly $2.8 billion
Annual $32.4 billion
WTI = West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light sweet crudeSource: Partnership calculations based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission and U.S. Energy Information Administration
Impact of Crude Price Drop on Cash FlowsTexas Production (Daily Avg.) 2.0 million barrels
WTI Price Drop Since June $46.10
Potential Revenue
Daily $92.2 million
Monthly $2.8 billion
Annual $32.4 billion
WTI = West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light sweet crudeSource: Partnership calculations based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission and U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spirit of Houston Yet To Be
Economic Drivers in ’15• U.S. Economy• Construction• International• Population
Professional Services
Hotels, Bars, Restaurants
Adm
inisstrative Support
Construction
Local Education
Retail
Wholesale
Transportation, Warehousin...
Other Services
Other G
overnment
Educational Services
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate
Arts, Entertainm
ent, Recr...
9.3 9.38.4 8.2 7.7
6.6
3.5 3.02.2 1.9
1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7
-3.3
-9.2
Manufactu
ring
En-ergy
2015 - Partnership Employment Forecast
• Cuts to exploration budgets• 20% - 50%
• Drop in the rig count• 500 or more
• Wells drilled• 9,000 fewer
• Industry layoffs• Oil field services• Equipment manufacturing• Exploration and production
• ’15 Forecast Summary– 62,900 jobs– 2.2 percent increase– 3.0+ million by Dec
“Are these the shadows of things that will be or the shadows of things that may be?”
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '161.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Oil Prices and Employment Growth
Employment Oil Prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Texas Workforce Commission data
Jobs(millions)
WTI($/bbl)