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Spread Edge Capital, LLC

Executive SummaryDarren Carlat is the Managing Director of SpreadEdge Capital, LLC and is responsible for

all aspects of the company's operations including market research, trading, customer

satisfaction, and operations management. For over 30 years, Mr. Carlat has been

developing, programming, and testing a wide variety of trading systems.

In 2010, he finished initial development efforts on a seasonal spread trading strategy which he has continually refined,

enhanced and improved. This trading system has been used for his own trading activities including the SpreadEdge

Diversified Seasonal Spread Strategy (that is offered to the public) and is the basis for the SpreadEdge Weekly

Newsletter.

What is included in the SpreadEdge Weekly Newsletter?The SpreadEdge Weekly Newsletter contains a subset of actual trades from the

SpreadEdge Diversified Seasonal Spread program. Details and results from this

program are posted on the SpreadEdgeCapital.com website. Specifically, the

SpreadEdge Weekly Newsletter and service contains the following:

Email Alerts on New Spread TradesBetween 1 and 3 new spread trade recommendations will be emailed in the evening of the new trading day. These trade

recommendations include a seasonal spread chart, commentary on the trade set-up, details on entry and exit timing, and

historical data on hypothetical trade performance.

Weekly Spread Trade “Watchlist”For investors that want to do their own research, every weekend SpreadEdge screens hundreds of possible spread trade

combinations and provides a list of the 10-20 spread trades that have the best opportunity for profit. The actual trades

recommended on the email alerts are chosen from this list.

Charts and Commentary on All Open TradesEvery weekend the charts for the current open trades are updated to include the market action from the previous week

as well as commentary on the actions that will be taken on each open trade.

What Are the Primary Objectives of the NewsletterThe primary objective is to provide examples of the types of trades that are placed in

the SpreadEdge Seasonal Spread program. It is our belief that investors that

understand the mechanics of spread trading will eventually want to become

participants in the program. Specifically, the main objectives of the SpreadEdge Weekly

Newsletter are as follows:

EducationThe mechanics of spread trading are clearly explained in each newsletter. In addition, the chart of the spread trade is

shown in advance of each trade along with commentary on the elements that make the specific trade recommendation

attractive.

TransparencyAll trade recommendations are posted in advance of actual trade execution and then followed throughout the entire life

of the trade.

AccountabilityResults of each trade (good, bad, or ugly!) are updated every week and tracked based off actual fill prices on both the

entry and exit. Detailed tracking of past closed trades and current open trades are updated each week in the newsletter.

BEST OF ALL… THE NEWSLETTER IS CURRENTLY FREE!!!!!

All your must do is send an email to [email protected] and request to be added to the email

distribution list.

Weekly Newsletter and Email Service

mailto:[email protected]

SpreadEdge Capital, LLCWeekly NewsletterWeek End 6/7/19

SpreadEdge Capital, LLC

8265 Canal St. Frisco, TX 75034

Darren Carlat (214) 636-3133

[email protected]

www.SpreadEdgeCapital.com

This is a past issue of the Newsletter. For

the current “FREE” Newsletter, please send

an email to [email protected]


TRADING FUTURES INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR ACCOUNT

SpreadEdge Capital, LLC8265 Canal St. Frisco, TX 75034Darren Carlat (214) [email protected]

SpreadEdge CapitalInvestment Strategy

Seasonal StrategyA specific calendar period during which a spread has

historically shown a consistent propensity to move in the same

direction.

SpreadEdge looks at the past15 years to find repeating

seasonal and historical tendencies. All positions entered have

moved in the same direction at least 80% of the time.

SpreadEdge also looks at current market conditions to ensure

that the seasonal spread is “set-up” consistent with historical

averages.

Calendar Spreads➢ The simultaneous purchase and sale of the same commodity

with different delivery dates

➢ Calendar Spreads…

➢ … are impacted by supply and demand factors

➢ … have well defined historical trends and trading

ranges

➢ … can have a “long” or “short” bias

INVESTMENT STRATEGYThe program involves “Spread” trades which entails the buying of a futures contract for one month and the simultaneous selling of the same futures contract for a different month. The program leverages 15 years of historical trends combined with current market action to determine the best investment decisions. SpreadEdge makes both long and short investments in a portfolio ofmostly domestic commodities.

The SpreadEdge Seasonal Spread Programs seeks to capture profitable returns leveraging data analysis of historical seasonal trends.

Risk ManagementFor the SpreadEdge trading programs, the Advisor attempts to limit the risk on an individual trade to between 2% and 5% of the account's equity. Other efforts to limit risk:➢ The SpreadEdge Diversified program monitors approximately 21

different commodities across 4 asset classes to spread exposure across a wide range of markets.

➢ We also attempt to reduce risk by spreading exposure across the various delivery dates within each individual commodity (minimizing front delivery month exposure is critical).



SpreadEdge CapitalReasons To Invest

• SpreadEdge Diversified invests in 21 different commodities across 6 different asset classes (Ag is 13 commodities and 3 classes; Energy is 8 and 3, Barchart is 19 and 4 respectively)

• Risk is further reduced by spreading exposure over the various delivery months

• All SpreadEdge programs invests on either the long or short side of a trade

• History and current market action dictate the actions taken

• SpreadEdge leverages a proprietary method to “score” each prospective investment

• Each program is constantly invested in the “spreads” with the highest propensity to increase in value

• Commodities have a low correlation coefficient to the stock market

• Commodities added to your stock portfolio will increase your “risk adjusted return”

• Additionally, commodities in different asset classes (i.e. Crude Oil and Wheat) also have a low correlation

Diverse Set Of Assets

Ability to Profit Long or Short

Systematic Trading Approach

Low Correlation to Stocks



SpreadEdge CapitalMarkets Traded

SpreadEdge Diversified

SpreadEdge Agriculture

SpreadEdge Energy

Inside Futures


The model portfolio is a “subset” of the Diversified program and is a list of the seasonal spread strategies that have been published on Inside Futures.

The spread strategies listed do not constitute buy or sell recommendation. They should only be considered in combination with fundamental and technical analysis.

The adjacent column explains the information provided.

Column # Explanation

1 Chronological list of the trades

2 Status of the trade (either Open, Closed, or Watch

3 Spread type: calendar (2 legs) or Butterfly (3 legs)

4 The average gain over the past 15 years

5 - 10 The quantity and symbol for each leg of the spread

11 Entry date, Saturday dates roll back to Friday, Sunday dates move to Monday

12 Actual entry price on the entry date

13 Entry price multiplied by the units per contract

14 Optimized exit date

14 Exit price if “Closed”, last closing price if “Open”

15 Last or exit price multiplied by the units per contract

16 The current profit or loss (Last Spread – Entry Spread)

17 Highest equity value

18 Lowest equity value

Sym Commodity Unit Size

E N

E R

G Y

BC Brent Crude 1,000

CL Crude Oil 1,000

GO Gas Oil 100

HO Heating Oil 42,000

NG Natural Gas 10,000

RB RBOB Gasoline 42,000

S O

F T

S

CC Cocoa 10

CT Cotton 500

KC Coffee 375

RC Robusta Coffee 10

SB Sugar #11 1,120

SW White Sugar #5 50

Sym Commodity Unit Size

G R

A I

N S

BO Soybean Oil 600

C Corn 50

KW KC Wheat 50

S Soybeans 50

SM Soybean Meal 100

W Wheat 50

M E

A T

S FC Feeder Cattle 500

LC Live Cattle 400

LH Lean Hogs 400

MET

AL HG Copper 250

SI Silver 50

OTH

ER ED Euro Dollar 2,500

VX S&P 500 VIX 1,000

Sym Month

F January

G February

H March

J April

K May

M June

N July

Q August

U September

V October

X November

Z December

How to Read a Trade Summary

Symbols, Codes, and Contract Data

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter

Price

Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

1 Closed Calendar 261 Buy 1 BOZ19 Sel l 1 BOQ19 26-Apr -0.6200 372 28-May -0.5800 348 (24)$ -$ (30)$

2 Open Calendar 279 Buy 2 KCH20 Sel l 2 KCZ19 3-May -3.6000 1,350 28-Oct -3.4500 1,294 (113)$ -$ (188)$

3 Closed Calendar 232 Buy 1 LHV19 Sel l 1 LHZ19 3-May 4.8650 1,946 16-May 3.2750 1,310 (636)$ 4$ (926)$

4 Closed Calendar 372 Buy 1 LCG20 Sel l 1 LCV19 7-May -6.7500 2,700 26-May -8.3500 3,340 640$ 920$ (140)$

5 Open Butterfly 816 Sel l 1 SU19 Buy 2 SX19 Sel l 1 SX19 8-May 31.7125 (1,586) 18-Jun 19.2500 (963) 623$ 761$ (314)$

6 Open Calendar 302 Buy 1 RCU19 Sel l 1 RCH20 14-May -57.0000 (570) 2-Jul -63.0000 (630) (60)$ -$ (80)$

7 Open Calendar 357 Buy 1 BCH20 Sel l 1 BCX19 16-May 1.5945 (1,595) 3-Jun 0.7300 (730) 865$ 865$ -$

8 Open Calendar 204 Buy 1 HOV19 Sel l 1 HOQ19 20-May -0.0102 428 3-Jun -0.0161 676 248$ 248$ -$

Entry Exit / Last EquityTrade DetailsOverview

How to Read a Trade Recommendation

Spread Details

Commodity Name of commodity

Spread Months

Expiration months of the futures contracts. The front month is always listed first

Enter The date to enter trade and Buy / Sell symbols. Saturday dates should be entered on Friday; Sunday on Monday. Pit symbols are used.

Exit The date and symbols to exit a trade

Win % The number of wins over the last 15 years divided by 15. All recommendations are 12 or greater

Average Profit

The average profit is entry and exit on the dates listed during each of the past 15 years

Average drawdown

The average maximum drawdown during the past 15 years

Best Highest profit experienced over the past 15 years based on entry and exit dates

Worst Highest loss experienced over the past 15 years based on entry and exit dates

Spread Details

Commodity Coffee

Spread Months Dec 19 – Mar 20

Enter 5/3/19Buy KCH20Sell KCZ19

Exit 10/28/19Buy KCZ19Sell KCH20

15 Year Hypothetical Data

Win % 93%

Average Profit $279

Avg Drawdown ($335)

Best $351

Worst ($189)

How the Math Works

• Win rate is 60%• Profit to loss ratio is 120%• Average profitability per trade is $30

Average Profitability Per Trade(60% X $120) - (40% X $100) = $30

Seasonal spreads DO NOT win every time! Our goal is to win more than we lose and to make more on the winners than we lose on the losers.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

15-YEAR HISTORICAL DATA IS CONSIDERED TO BE HYPOTHETICAL. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

Soybean Oil (Q19 – Z19) Spread

Lean Hogs (V19 – Z19) Spread

Sell Recommendation (Characteristics)• Short the front month and long

an outer month• Chart slopes from upper left to

lower right• GENERALLY a bearish position.

However, spreads and the underlying CAN move in opposite directions

• Looking for the spread to get less positive or more negative

Buy Recommendation (Characteristics)• Long the front month and short

an outer month• Chart slopes from lower left to

upper right• GENERALLY a bullish position.

However, spreads and the underlying CAN move in opposite directions

• Looking for the spread to get more positive or less negative

How to Read a Spread Chart



Inside Futures Trade Summary

Open Trades

Closed Trades

Trade CommentaryWe only opened 1 new trades this week (White Sugar) to bring our total trades to 13. We were stalking a Sugar #11 trade at the end of the week, but did not get the set up we were looking for. We closed a Brent Crude and a Heating Oil trade at a nice profit of $865 and $248, respectively.

Our win% crept up to 53.8% even though our total equity dropped slightly from $1,573 to $1,448. Most of the drop was due to a reversal in our Soybean Butterfly spread. We will be closing this spread out early because the profit to draw-down ratio going forward is no longer favorable. We will also be closing the Cotton spread as scheduled on Monday.

Individual commentary is provided on each trade on the Trade Sheet.

These trades are based on recommendations posted in advance on Inside Futures and are a subset of actual trades from the SpreadEdge Diversified Seasonal Spread program. Results from these trades may not represent the performance of this program. Actual results of the SpreadEdge Diversified program are posted on the SpreadEdgeCapital.com website.

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

2 Open Calendar - Buy 2 KCH20 Sel l 2 KCZ19 3-May -3.6000 1,350 28-Oct -3.6000 1,350 -$ -$ (188)$

5 Open Butterfly - Sel l 1 SU19 Buy 2 SX19 Sel l 1 SN20 8-May 31.7125 (1,586) 18-Jun 28.7500 (1,438) 148$ 761$ (314)$

6 Open Calendar - Buy 1 RCU19 Sel l 1 RCH20 14-May -57.0000 (570) 2-Jul -61.0000 (610) (40)$ -$ (80)$

9 Open Calendar - Buy 1 CH20 Sel l 1 CU19 20-May -17.2500 863 1-Jul -18.2500 913 50$ 175$ (163)$

10 Open Butterfly - Sel l 1 CTZ19 Buy 2 CTH20 Sel l 1 CTK20 24-May 0.0750 (38) 10-Jun 0.3400 (170) (133)$ 8$ (143)$

11 Open Calendar - Buy 1 LHJ20 Sel l 1 LHG20 28-May -1.3050 522 28-Jun -2.3250 930 408$ 408$ (42)$

12 Open Calendar - Buy 1 BOH20 Sel l 1 BOZ19 1-Jun -0.4300 258 11-Oct -0.5200 312 54$ 60$ -$

13 Open Calendar 1 Buy 1 SWQ19 Sel l 1 SWH20 5-Jun -19.9685 (998) 6-Jul -22.6000 (1,130) (132)$ -$ (132)$

Status Win # Loss # Trades Win % $/Trade $ / Win $ / Loss Equity$

Closed 3 2 5 60.0% 218 584 (330) 1,092$

Open 4 4 8 50.0% 45 165 (76) 356$

Total 7 6 13 53.8% 111 345 (161) 1,448$


Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

1 Closed Calendar - Buy 1 BOZ19 Sel l 1 BOQ19 26-Apr -0.6200 372 28-May -0.5800 348 (24)$ -$ (30)$

3 Closed Calendar - Buy 1 LHV19 Sel l 1 LHZ19 3-May 4.8650 1,946 16-May 3.2750 1,310 (636)$ 4$ (926)$

4 Closed Calendar - Buy 1 LCG20 Sel l 1 LCV19 7-May -6.7500 2,700 26-May -8.3500 3,340 640$ 920$ (140)$

7 Closed Calendar - Buy 1 BCH20 Sel l 1 BCX19 16-May 1.5945 (1,595) 3-Jun 0.7300 (730) 865$ 865$ -$

8 Closed Calendar - Buy 1 HOV19 Sel l 1 HOQ19 20-May -0.0102 428 3-Jun -0.0161 676 248$ 248$ -$





Watch List

Inter-Commodity

Intra-Commodity

OverviewBelow are spreads that have made the radar screen for next week. These trades are believed to provide the best opportunity out of the hundreds of spread combinations that were analyzed. The first group are Intra-Commodity spreads (same commodity with different expiration months) while the second group are Inter-Commodity spreads (different commodities within a related commodity class). All spreads can have significant volatility, but intra-commodity spreads are generally much less volatile than inter-commodity spreads.

Each of these spreads are candidates for the SpreadEdge Seasonal Spread programs

Inter-commodity spreads are generally not included in the SpreadEdge Seasonal Spread programs but offer great opportunities for investors that can withstand the volatility

To Buy a spread with 2 legs – Buy first symbol, Sell second symbolTo Sell a spread with 2 legs – Sell first symbol, Buy second symbolTo Buy a spread with 3 legs – Buy first symbol, Sell second, Buy third symbolTo Sell a spread with 3 legs - Sell first symbol, Buy second symbol, Sell third symbol

Commodity Name Side Legs Category Enter Exit Win%

Avg

Profit $

Avg

Draw

Down $

Best

Profit $

Worst

Loss $

Crude Oil CLZ19-2*CLZ20+CLZ21 SELL 3 Energy 6/10/2019 11/18/2019 93% 2,210$ (2,675)$ 3,263$ (1,511)$

Live Cattle LCV19-LCZ19 BUY 2 Meat 6/11/2019 6/29/2019 87% 293$ (235)$ 399$ (107)$

Coffee KCZ19-KCH20 SELL 2 Food 6/12/2019 11/17/2019 93% 379$ (309)$ 449$ (139)$

Cocoa CCU19-CCK20 SELL 2 Food 6/13/2019 8/2/2019 87% 243$ (243)$ 342$ (153)$

Soybean Meal SMN19-2*SMQ19+SMU19 SELL 3 Grain 6/14/2019 6/24/2019 93% 269$ (127)$ 305$ (44)$

Corn CU19-CZ19 SELL 2 Grain 6/14/2019 8/6/2019 93% 456$ (293)$ 507$ (155)$

White Sugar #5 SWV19-SWK20 BUY 2 Food 6/14/2019 7/9/2019 87% 485$ (330)$ 652$ (78)$

Cocoa CCU19-CCH20 SELL 2 Food 6/14/2019 8/2/2019 93% 223$ (195)$ 298$ (123)$

Lean Hogs LHG20-LHJ20 SELL 2 Meat 6/19/2019 6/28/2019 87% 445$ (127)$ 521$ (40)$

Commodity Name Side Legs Category Enter Exit Win%

Avg

Profit $

Avg

Draw

Down $

Best

Profit $

Worst

Loss $

Pound, Candian Dollar BPU19-CDU19 BUY 2 Currency 6/11/2019 6/18/2019 80% 751 (371) 1,030 (174)

Copper, Palladium HGQ19-PAU19 BUY 2 Metal 6/13/2019 6/28/2019 100% 2,689 (2,189) 3,247 (1,059)

Feeder, Live Cattle FCX19-LCG20 BUY 2 Meat 6/14/2019 6/24/2019 93% 737 (591) 960 (414)

Live Cattle, Lean Hogs LCQ19-LHZ19 BUY 2 Meat 6/11/2019 6/29/2019 87% 1,447 (1,133) 1,964 (569)

Corn, Soybeans 2*CN19-SU19 SELL 2 Grain 6/13/2019 6/25/2019 80% 1,445 (1,075) 2,005 (640)

Corn, Feeder Cattle CN19-FCV19 SELL 2 Grain|Meat6/14/2019 6/28/2019 87% 1,725 (1,959) 3,008 (1,275)

Soybeans, Soy Oil, Meal SQ19-BOV19-SMV19 BUY 3 Grain 6/15/2019 7/3/2019 87% 619 (753) 893 (491)




Inside Futures Recommendations

Posted 5/2/19

The Coffee KCZ19 - KCH20 spread is sitting near it's historical highs and appears ripe to reverse over the next several months. It bounced off of the ($3.50) level earlier this week and closed Thursday well above the 5 year and 15-year averages. The spread has been profitable 14 of the last 15 years and has a profit to draw-down ratio of 83%. I like to see this ratio higher, but the pattern set-up described above makes this a great candidate. This is generally a slow moving and long developing trade that will likely be closed early is prices move back to their historical averages over the next month or two. On Friday, I will be selling 2 - Coffee Z19 - H20 spreads at or near the current price.

Spread Details

Commodity Coffee

Spread Months Dec 19 – Mar 20

Enter 5/3/19Buy KCH20Sell KCZ19

Exit 10/28/19Buy KCZ19Sell KCH20


Win % 93%

Average Profit $279

Avg Drawdown ($335)

Best $351

Worst ($189)

Open Trade: Coffee (Z19 – H20) Spread (Original Comment)

Update 6/7/19We got a nice move in our direction last week rewarding our patience. Patience is easy on this trade as it has a long duration and is not very volatile (from a $/equity perspective). Looks like the top is in so we will watch for this trade to return to its’ historical norm.

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

2 Open Calendar - Buy 2 KCH20 Sel l 2 KCZ19 3-May -3.6000 1,350 28-Oct -3.6000 1,350 -$ -$ (188)$


Coffee (Z19 – H20) Spread




Open Trade: Soybean (U19-2*SX19+N20) Spread (Original Comment)


Posted 5/7/19

Spread Details

Commodity Soybeans

Spread Months Sep 19, Nov 19, Jul 20

Enter5/8/19

Sell 1 - SU19Buy 2 - SX19Sell 1 -SN20

Exit6/18/19

Buy 1 – SU19Sell 2 – SX19Buy 1 – SN20


Win % 93%

Average Profit $815

Avg Drawdown ($732)

Best $1,214

Worst ($346)

The Soybean butterfly spread (SU19-2*SX19+SN20) is bouncing off it's ytd highs and just below the 15-year average highs. The spread has profited in 14 of the last 15 years and boosts a good average profit to drawdown ratio of 111%. There is some divergence between the 5-year and 15-year historical averages, but both suggest a drop in the spread. Wednesday, I will be selling the Soybean (SU19-2*SX19+SN20) butterfly at or near current prices.

Update 6/7/19East come, easy go! We pondered closing this easy last week and were punished for not doing so. The profit to draw-down ratio is not in our favor so we will close this early on Monday.

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

5 Open Butterfly - Sel l 1 SU19 Buy 2 SX19 Sel l 1 SN20 8-May 31.7125 (1,586) 18-Jun 28.7500 (1,438) 148$ 761$ (314)$


Soybeans (U19–2*SX19+SN20) Spread




Open Trade: Robusta Coffee (U19-H20) Spread (Original Comment)


Posted 5/13/19

Update 6/7/19We reduced our losses slightly again this week but there still isn’t much going on. The set-up continues to look great so we will stay patient and wait for the reversal.

Spread Details

Commodity Robusta Coffee

Spread Months Sep 19, Mar 20

Enter 5/14/19Buy – RCU19Sell – RCH20

Exit 7/2/19Buy – RCH20Sell – RCU19


Win % 93%

Average Profit $302

Avg Drawdown ($316)

Best $457

Worst ($91)

The Robusta Coffee (U19 - H20) spread is poised to rise over the next several weeks. The spread is currently sitting at the bottom of the channel formed by the 5-year and 15-year

historical averages. Between 5/14 and 7/2, the spread has risen in 14 of the past 15 years

and offers a favorable a profit to draw down ratio. On Tuesday, I will be buying the Robusta Coffee (U19 - H20) spread at or near Mondays close.

Robusta Coffee (U19-H20) Spread

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter

Price

Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

6 Open Calendar 302 Buy 1 RCU19 Sel l 1 RCH20 14-May -57.0000 (570) 2-Jul -63.0000 (630) (60)$ -$ (80)$


Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

6 Open Calendar - Buy 1 RCU19 Sel l 1 RCH20 14-May -57.0000 (570) 2-Jul -61.0000 (610) (40)$ -$ (80)$





Closed Trade: Brent Crude (X19-H20) Spread (Original Comment)


Posted 5/15/19

Update 6/3/19We closed this out on Monday as scheduled for a nice profit of $865. Note that this was well above the historical average AND well above the best over the past 15 years. Not much else to say other than I wish they all worked out as well!

Spread Details

Commodity Brent Crude

Spread Months Nov 19, Mar 20

Enter 5/16/19Buy – BCH20Sell – BCX19

Exit 6/3/19Buy – BCX19Sell – BCH20


Win % 93%

Average Profit $324

Avg Drawdown ($319)

Best $416

Worst ($122)

The Brent Crude (X19 - H20) spread is set-up to roll over and should provide a nice profit opportunity. The spread is currently sitting on top of the channel formed by the 5-year and 15-year historical averages. A spread sold on 5/16 would have profited 14 of the last 15 years if closed on 6/3. On Thursday, I will be selling the Brent Crude (X19 - H20) spread at or near the Wednesday closing price.

Brent Crude (X19-H20) Spread

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter

Price

Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

7 Closed Calendar 357 Buy 1 BCH20 Sel l 1 BCX19 16-May 1.5945 (1,595) 3-Jun 0.7300 (730) 865$ 865$ -$





Closed Trade: Heating Oil (Q19-V19) Spread (Original Comment)


Posted 5/19/19

Update 6/3/19We closed this trade on Monday as scheduled for a nice profit of $248. I’ve been trading spreads for a long time but still marvel at how closely the actual trades sometimes follow the historical data. The Brent Crude and Heating Oil trades were text book!

Spread Details

Commodity Heating Oil

Spread Months Aug 19, Oct 19

Enter 5/20/19Buy – HOV19Sell – HOQ19

Exit 6/3/19Buy – HOQ19Sell – HOV19


Win % 87%

Average Profit $204

Avg Drawdown ($174)

Best $291

Worst ($63)

The Heating Oil (Q19 - V19) spread has risen sharply since last Monday. This action has brought the spread to above the channel formed by the 5-year and 15-year historical averages. This sets it up nicely for the seasonal drop that has occurred 13 of the last 15 years between 5/20 to 6/3. On Monday, I will be selling the Heating Oil (Q19 - V19) spread at or near the close on Friday.

Heating Oil (Q19-V19) Spread

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter

Price

Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

8 Closed Calendar 204 Buy 1 HOV19 Sel l 1 HOQ19 20-May -0.0102 428 3-Jun -0.0161 676 248$ 248$ -$





Open Trade: Corn (U19-H20) Spread (Original Comment)


Posted 5/19/19

Update 6/7/19This trade was profitable this week and is beginning to follow its’ historical trend downward. This trade continues to show up on my screens, so it continues to be a good candidate to sell.

Spread Details

Commodity Corn

Spread Months Sep 19, Mar 20

Enter 5/20/19Buy – CH20Sell – CU19

Exit 7/1/19Buy – CU19Sell – CH20


Win % 93%

Average Profit $418

Avg Drawdown ($217)

Best $463

Worst ($78)

Corn (U19-H20) Spread

The Corn (U19 - H20) spread has risen in recent days to a place that looks great to sell. The spread is currently above it's 5-year and 15-year historical averages after gaining 7 points in 4 days. Selling this spread on 5/20 and buying back on 7/1 has produced a winner in 14 of the last 15 years. Additionally, it has a profit to draw-down ratio of nearly 2x at 193%. Monday, I will be selling the Corn (U19-H20) spread at or near Fridays closing price.

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

9 Open Calendar - Buy 1 CH20 Sel l 1 CU19 20-May -17.2500 863 1-Jul -18.2500 913 50$ 175$ (163)$






Posted 5/23/19

Update 6/7/19This is a short-term trade that never got going for us. We will close this out at a loss on Monday as scheduled.

Spread Details

Commodity Cotton

Spread Months Dec 19, Mar 20, May 20

Enter5/24/19

Sell- CTZ19Buy – 2*CTH20

Sell – CTK20

Exit6/10/19

Buy – CTZ19Sell – 2*CTH20

Buy – CTK20


Win % 87%

Average Profit $403

Avg Drawdown ($146)

Best $461

Worst ($62)

The Cotton Butterfly spread (Z19-2*H20+K20) has risen sharply the past 10 trading days and positioned itself nicely above the 5-year and 15-year historical channels. This spread had gained 13 of the past 15 year when sold on 5/24 and then bought on 6/10. The profit to draw-down ratio is very high at 276% and recent market action has positioned the spread nicely ahead the the seasonably favorable period. On Friday, I will be selling the Cotton (Z19-2*H20+K20) butterfly spread at or neat the Thursday closing price.

Open Trade: Cotton (Z19-2*H20+K20) Spread (Original Comment)

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

10 Open Butterfly - Sel l 1 CTZ19 Buy 2 CTH20 Sel l 1 CTK20 24-May 0.0750 (38) 10-Jun 0.3400 (170) (133)$ 8$ (143)$


Cotton (Z19-2*H20+K20) Spread





Posted 5/27/19

Update 6/7/19This trade extended its’ gains this week and continues to look good. All systems are “go” so we will hang in there.

Spread Details

Commodity Lean Hogs

Spread Months Feb 20, Apr 20

Enter 5/28/19Buy – LHJ20Sell – LHG20

Exit 6/28/19Buy – LHG20Sell – LHJ20


Win % 100%

Average Profit $515

Avg Drawdown ($391)

Best $618

Worst ($166)

Lean Hogs (G20-J20) Spread

Open Trade: Lean Hogs (G20-J20) Spread (Original Comment)

The Lean Hogs (G20-J20) spread is currently sitting just above its' 5-year and 15-year historical averages and is in great shape to begin its' seasonal decline. The spread has declined every year over the past 15 when sold on 5/28 and bought on 6/28. In addition, it has an excellent profit to draw down ratio of 132%. On Tuesday, I will be selling the Lean Hogs (G20-J20) spread at or near Fridays closing price.

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

11 Open Calendar - Buy 1 LHJ20 Sel l 1 LHG20 28-May -1.3050 522 28-Jun -2.3250 930 408$ 408$ (42)$






Posted 5/31/19

Update 6/7/19We got a nice move right away, so we are in the black on this one. The set up continues to look good so we will continue to hold.

The Soybean Oil (Z19 - H20) spread has been on a tear upward the past week and has set up nicely for its' seasonal decline. The spread has profited 14 of the last 15 years when sold on 6/1 and bought on 10/11. It also has a nice profit to draw-down ratio of 135%. Today, I am selling the Soybean Oil (Z19 - H20) spread at the current price.

Open Trade: Soybean Oil (Z19-H20) Spread (Original Comment)

Spread Details

Commodity Soybean Oil

Spread Months Dec 19, Mar 20

Enter 6/1/19Buy – BOH20Sell – BOZ19

Exit 10/11/19Buy – BOZ19Sell – BOH20


Win % 93%

Average Profit $204

Avg Drawdown ($151)

Best $226

Worst ($70)

Soybean Oil (Z19-H20) Spread

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

12 Open Calendar - Buy 1 BOH20 Sel l 1 BOZ19 1-Jun -0.4300 258 11-Oct -0.5200 312 54$ 60$ -$






Posted 6/4/19

Update 6/7/19We entered this trade on Wednesday and it has not cooperated yet. The set up continues to look strong so we will hold.

New Trade: White Sugar (Q19-H20) Spread (Original Comment)

Spread Details

Commodity White Sugar

Spread Months Aug 19, Mar 20

Enter 6/5/19Buy – SWQ19Sell – SWH20

Exit 7/6/19Buy – SWH20Sell – SWQ19


Win % 87%

Average Profit $631

Avg Drawdown ($516)

Best $900

Worst ($201)

White Sugar (Q19-H20) Spread

The White Sugar (Q19-H20) spread is sitting just below its’ 15-year historical average and is coiled to move higher over the next month. In 13 of the past 15 years, the spread has shown a profit when purchased on 6/5 and sold on 7/6. It also has a favorable profit to draw down ratio of 122% which makes it even more appealing. On Wednesday, I will be buying the White Sugar (Q19-H20) at or near the Tuesday closing price.

Trade Summary

Trade

#

Status Spread

Type

$ Avg

15 Yr

Profi t

Leg 1

(B / S)

Leg 1

Symbol

Leg 2

(B / S)

Leg 2

Symbol

Leg 3

(B / S)

Leg 3

Symbol

Enter

Date

Enter Price Enter

Spread$

Exit

Date

Last

Price

Last

Spread$

Last

Equity$

Best

Equity$

Worst

Equity$

13 Open Calendar 1 Buy 1 SWQ19 Sel l 1 SWH20 5-Jun -19.9685 (998) 6-Jul -22.6000 (1,130) (132)$ -$ (132)$



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