springtij 2015 - presentatie leo meyer
TRANSCRIPT
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC en grenzen aan klimaatverandering
LEO MEYER SPRINGTIJ 24 september 2015 Terschelling
Het warmste jaar en een verhit Parijs
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Neerslag in winters 1971-‐2010 tov 1902-‐2010 (NOAA 2011)
“There is evidence that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict “ (PNAS March 2015)
“Fertile Crescent”
Without addi@onal mi@ga@on, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8 0C over the 21st century…
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Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
Jim Hansen and co-‐authors, July 2015:
Ice melt, sea level rise and super storms: evidence from paleo-climate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2◦ C global warming is highly dangerous!
Kleine kansen met grote gevolgen = groot risico
Bron: Jevreva et al (2014), Upper limit Sea level Rise by2100, Environ.Res. Lett , 9 104008
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Global GHG emissions reduction of 40-70 % in 2050 compared to 2010
Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100
Global emissions to peak within next 5-15 years
AR5 WGIII SPM Ambitious mitigation is affordable
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount Used 1870-2011:
1900 GtCO2
Amount Remaining:
1000 GtCO2
Total Carbon Budget:
2900 GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM
Bio-‐Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage
= Negative emissions!
Groene band: huidig beleid -Blauwe stip: plannen 2020 - Paarse stip: plannen 2030 - Grijze band: - 2 0C - pad
Van 56 landen 60 % mondiale emissies 20 % van wat nodig is voor 2 graden INDCs 2030: 3.5 -4 Gton CO2-eq /j reductie tov huidig beleid Nodig 2030: 19 Gton CO2-eq/j reductie tov huidig beleid
OP WEG NAAR PARIJS KLIMAATTOP COP21 Ingediende plannen per 31 augustus 2015
G7 top juni 2015 Duitsland
Clean Power Plan: 32 % CO2 reduc@e in centrales in 2030 tov 2005
China-‐VS deal over Klimaat
