100 Year StarshipResponse to RFI: DARPA-SN-11-41

31 May, 2011Contact Information:

Dr. Jack Sanders-ReedImage and Video Exploitation Technologies, LLC

Phone: 505-450-1851Email: Jack.SandersReed@gmail.com

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Copyright unpublished - 2011. All rights reserved under the copyright laws by IVET LLC.

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Executive Summary

The fundamental problem posed is not an aerospace engineering problem but rather a social engineering problem with two goals: On the surface, development of a starship but at a deeper level, development of a multi-generational enthusiasm for science and engineering and development of entirely new space based industries.

Use of foreseeable evolutions of technology constrain a starship to a long duration, extremely large design which cannot reasonably be launched in whole or in pieces from earth. The result is that a lunar or asteroid mining and heavy manufacturing industry must be developed to provide the major structural components. This implies that a significant, self-financing space infra-structure must be in place as a pre-requisite to the starship. This in turn will require that a number of legal issues such as ownership of space resources, be addressed. How these are addressed can influence the motivation of companies to support the starship project.

Given the space infra-structure as a pre-existing condition, and based on historic major space program costs, a modest invest might accrue sufficient value over a period of 100-200 years to finance at least a low end starship development effort. However, while possibly achieving the basic starship goal, this would not achieve the deeper social goal of developing a stronger interest and capability in science and engineering.

We propose a foundation having 3 goals: 1) Development of a broad based, integrated science and engineering curriculum for grades K-12, 2) Advocacy and strategic “nudges” to develop major commercial space infra-structure in ways which will be supportive of the starship project, and 3) Long-term management of an endowment to provide a substantial portion of the required starship development funding. We believe one of the keys to success of the proposed foundation will be high level participation on a board of directors by senior VP level personnel from aerospace, mining, and finance business sectors.

ConstraintsThe problem of developing a star ship over a 100 year plus time frame will be significantly influenced by a few basic assumptions regarding the nature of the star ship. Two fundamentally different approaches are possible.

In the first, we assume fundamentally new science, such as some sort of faster than light or worm hole travel, or a highly efficient drive which rapidly accelerates a ship to near light speed. In this case a relatively small ship is feasible: travel time for the crew is short, meaning modest supply storage. Round trip life times may be within the realm of current planetary missions (much less for the crew). This type of approach does not require dedicated, long term funding, “just” continued basic science funding, hoping for “and then a miracle occurs” breakthroughs. This approach does not appear to be within the spirit of the current DARPA proposal and will not be examined further.

The second approach is to rely on evolution of known science. In this case we are most likely looking at not merely long term star ship development, but most likely, 100 year plus star ship missions: the classic science fiction “generation ship”. Such a ship, based on evolution of current technology, would be orders of magnitude larger than any space craft built to date. The implications of this are the following: 1) The ship will be far too large to build on earth and

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launch. It must be assembled in space. 2) The cost of lifting the raw materials from earth will always be prohibitive - the cost of getting to low earth orbit is half the cost of going anywhere in the solar system (the one exception might be the use of a solar powered Arthur C. Clarke geosynchronous elevator). This implies that the raw materials must be obtained and transformed into structural components in space. A space mining and heavy manufacturing industry must be created (this would mean mining the moon, or asteroids).

The implication is that developing a star ship will require the creation of entirely new industries involving major space infra-structure. While robotics will clearly play a major role, it is probable that this will also involve significant permanent human presence on the moon and/or in space as far as the asteroid belt.

The Cost of Major Aerospace ProjectsA brief review of the cost and scope of major aerospace projects may be useful for predicting the cost of starship development. The 10 year program to land a man on the moon is estimated at $25.4B in 1960s dollars and $150B in today’s dollars. The ISS cost approximately $100B including partner nation contributions, shuttle flights, and the preceding design efforts for the US only space station Freedom. Development of a permanent, manned lunar base is estimated between $35B and $230B, while a trip to Mars is estimated at about $100B. Given the above, it seems safe to predict that a starship will cost no less than $100B. The variables of course are immense, including choices such as complete fabrication of the starship (which could increase the cost by an order of magnitude) versus the use of the left-over shell of a mined out asteroid for the major structure. However, a key assumption is that space infra-structure (lunar habitation, space mining and manufacturing) is in place due to commercial development.

In contrast, the Airbus A380 is estimated to have cost $15B to develop while the Boeing 787 has an estimated development cost of $15-16B. While these were entirely privately financed, their cost is about 7 times less than the major space programs and they were financed with the assumption of an eventual commercial profit.

With the above historical aerospace costs in mind, it is useful to understand how 100 years of investment relates to at least a minimum starship cost of $100B. DARPA has indicated an initial endowment of a few hundred thousand dollars. Choosing $200K as representative, if invested at 8% (after inflation) for 100 years, gives a fund of $439M – not nearly sufficient to fund the scope of the project. However, if we pose the question differently and ask how long we would have to invest $200K at 8% to reach $100B, the answer is only 170 years, not really a long time in this context. Alternatively, if we invested $45M today (a relatively modest sum to raise) at 8%, it would grow to $100B in 100 years. What these numbers suggest is that if the only goal is to raise sufficient capital to build a starship within 100-200 years, a stable investment fund is needed, but no particular heroics. However, simple investment and compound interest do not achieve the underlying fundamental goal of building broad based interest in science and technology and space exploration in particular. Neither does the simple investment approach assure that the pre-requisite space infra-structure and capabilities will be in place.

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Space Infra-Structure DevelopmentEventual development of a starship in space using material derived from the moon or asteroids would benefit tremendously from a self-sustaining space industry and infra-structure. We can certainly outline a potential path to commercial utilization of space, beginning with the early telecommunication satellites, more recently the Global Positioning System (GPS) and similar systems from other countries, to commercial imaging satellites, to the nascent space tourism business, first sub-orbital flights and then orbital stays in commercial facilities such as the Bigelow inflatable habitats. NASA is currently actively encouraging commercial space ventures through the COTS and CCDev programs to provide commercial payload and crew transport to the ISS. Some of the future next steps might include solar power satellites beaming energy to earth, commercial transport from earth orbit to the moon, or commercial operation of a lunar research site. The next step which really begins to pave the way toward the starship is the development of heavy industry in space: mining and energy intensive raw material processing. We note in passing that acquiring raw materials from off earth has a number of positive environmental impacts on earth: reduction of mining damage to the planet and reduction in energy usage for mining and ore processing. As costs for economic damage from these activities increase, the incentive for less bureaucratic space mining increases. One mission of the proposed foundation will be to encourage development of the required space infra-structure. This can include presenting business cases to aerospace, mining, and finance communities, developing incentive “prizes” for early demonstrations, and helping create business and political conditions supportive of this development.

However, a number of potential legal obstacles and impediments may need to be addressed before significant investment can be made in space heavy industry. Who owns the rights to the raw materials on the moon or the asteroids? Who has jurisdiction over safety and other concerns? What is the citizenship of children born on the moon or in space? These can have a very significant impact both on the willingness of companies to invest in space operations, and how those operations may contribute to eventual starship development. Consider that if asteroids are available free on a first come basis, a mining company will generally prefer to consume all of the asteroid if possible or to consume the economic portion of it in the most cost effective manner. This means that leaving a hollowed out husk as a “free” starting structure for a starship is in fact a donation from the company out of its potential profits. On the other hand, if the asteroids are “owned” by some government which in turn licenses mining rights, the government can stipulate as part of the mining lease that a shell be left intact.

Leadership & VisibilityHigh visibility, well connected leadership will be a must for the proposed organization. This will be required in order to be taken seriously and to open doors to both the corporate world and private donors. Consider that to get to the moon took the twin combination of the scare from Sputnik and the leadership of President Kennedy. Subsequently, lacking the twin factors of urgency and strong leadership, the American space program has since often appeared much less vital. The proposed 100 year starship program will have neither the urgency nor the presidential leadership of the moon program.

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The leadership required must be at a sufficient level that they can pick up a telephone and make contact with senior executives at major corporations. The leadership for the proposed organization must be able to reach out to senior leadership across multiple industries to seek sponsorship for educational programs, community outreach, and cross-industry collaboration and advocacy for space development.

Roadmap to a 100 year StarshipWith the above discussion in mind we can now posit a roadmap to a 100 year starship. We have 3 fundamental goals:

1. Within approximately 100 years, develop a long duration starship (probably a “generation” ship) funded by the proposed organization based on growth of an endowment.

2. Ensure that the requisite space infra-structure is in place, funded primarily by private industry as a for profit enterprise. The proposed organization may provide minor incentives to encourage development, and lobby to ensure legal obstacles to development are ameliorated.

3. Develop a broad-based, integrated K-12 science motivation program which will encourage children to learn, enjoy, and seek careers in science and engineering, thus building longer term advocacy for the goals of the organization.

It will probably be significantly easier to engage a broader audience and raise money for an integrated education initiative than for a distant future starship. As such, this should be the early focus. Potential corporate support goes well beyond aerospace and should include at a minimum electronics companies (such as Intel), automotive companies, medical device companies and entertainment companies. Current corporate and foundation attempts to support education in general or science and engineering education in particular tend to be school specific, often one time grants without follow-up from grade to grade. The educational goal should be to engage children across the breadth of the geographic and socio-economic spectrum, at the beginning of their school careers with interesting and fun challenges and begin to show them achievable careers and benefits from science and engineering education. However, in order to build on early interest, an integrated curriculum lasting throughout a student’s education is required. The proposed starship foundation can provide the integration function to bring diverse donors together and show them how by pooling their contributions, they will gain greater leverage than through individual initiatives. Other activities can be modeled on the post-Sputnik science encouragement programs such as National Science Foundation sponsored science summer programs. The range of topics can include robotics, life sciences and life support, materials and structural engineering, long term endurance, self repairing and adaptive structures, propulsion, and sociological aspects of long term closed communities. The education component can continue into college (paying for undergraduate scholarships) and providing grants for graduate research. If properly focused, this can provide a strong base of science and engineering from which to begin the final starship design.

A key to engaging children in science and engineering is not only the fun and enjoyment, but also being able to visualize a clear and rewarding career path. At the same time, the benefit to corporations for donating is to ensure an adequate, highly skilled workforce. To this end, we

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suggest that corporations be able to advertise their involvement in the foundation, and commit to providing internships and other incentives to participants in the developed science curriculum. Painting the vision is critical and is where entertainment companies enter the picture (movies, games, rides). Think of the impact Star Trek, Star Wars, and related entertainment have had on the popular imagination and consider how much of Star Trek has become reality (cell phones as communicators, laser weapons as “phasers”, advanced computing systems and robotics). Themes around true generation ships and colonization can provide both enthusiasm, participation, and revenue.

Ensuring that the appropriate space infra-structure is in place is a medium term goal which can begin by letting a modest endowment grow so that it can used to attract matching grants to sponsor “challenge” prizes. This effort can include, perhaps by sponsoring business school challenges, developing appropriate business models for space mining, manufacturing, and other infra-structure. The foundation can further facilitate the corporate connections necessary to develop the space infra-structure, in particular between aerospace and mining. This can be done in a number of ways, including membership on the board of directors. As the results of the education portion mature into a broader public interest in science and engineering, it should become easier to lobby the appropriate government bodies to help ensure the proper regulatory conditions exist to support space infra-structure development.

Actually funding development of a starship will be achieved by creating a long term endowment. We anticipate that visibility of the educational portion of the project will facilitate raising a small amount of capital to form the seed for the long term endowment. For most of the duration of the foundation this will simply be a fund managed for long term growth.

Proposed OrganizationThere are many examples of organizations lasting well over 100 years, including companies, foundations, universities, governments, and social organizations. The key in most cases is to have a clear mission (in our case captured in a charter describing the three goals of the organization) and good leadership. We propose a foundation with a high visibility board of directors. A preferred board would consist of senior VPs from major aerospace, mining, and finance companies, a well connected government liason and one university professor. In order to provide continuity, these members should serve a 5 year term each, with one member replaced each year. These members provide the visibility and political/corporate connections necessary to engage at the corporate level. In addition, to provide an education perspective, the board should include 2 students and 2 teachers serving one year terms. One student and one teacher should be from elementary schools while the other student and teacher come from middle or high schools.

The initial effort is to fund raise by engaging corporations and private foundations to provide funding to develop and implement the integrated science curriculum. Small amounts of funding may also be raised to seed the longer term space infra-structure and eventual starship development efforts.

The foundation may develop a “seal of approval” and logo which may be used appropriately to recognize organizations supporting both the educational and long term starship goals.

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