square ageing effects and equipmet fleet requirements
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on contributing factors that cause failures due to aging and propose new approach to tackle the problemTRANSCRIPT
RequirementsRequirements
WiedmannWiedmann – – ACTI Inc., 2 ACTI Inc., 2ndnd Annual Conference, Annual Conference, November 10, 2003November 10, 2003 -- Miami Beach, FLMiami Beach, FL
Darije C. Nikolic,Darije C. Nikolic, EPRIsolutions;EPRIsolutions; [email protected]@EPRIsolutions.com
Michael A. Lebow,Michael A. Lebow, Consultant;Consultant; [email protected]@mikelebow.com
•• Dealing with the uncertainty passivelyDealing with the uncertainty passively
•• Saving time on analysis and planningSaving time on analysis and planning
•• “Assuming” to get away without “understanding”“Assuming” to get away without “understanding”
PXPX
RTORTO
ISOISO
ITCITC
•• Wall street metricsWall street metrics
•• Common unpreparednessCommon unpreparedness
•• Scanning the road aheadScanning the road ahead
•• Or keeping the eyes on the hoodOr keeping the eyes on the hood
What do we mean by that?
Heard of using past years budgets…Heard of using past years budgets…
…as a basis for the future needs?…as a basis for the future needs?
Heard of cost cutting initiatives…Heard of cost cutting initiatives…
…that reduce those yesteryear budgets?…that reduce those yesteryear budgets?
Heard of being 60% over the annual budget…Heard of being 60% over the annual budget…
…in less than first 6 months?…in less than first 6 months?
Heard of the older transformers being upHeard of the older transformers being up--rated…rated…
Consequently…
Heard of not having resources to analyze…Heard of not having resources to analyze…
Meeting Requirements and Achieving Operational Excellence Goals
•• Driving at 20 m/hr in a prairie, noDriving at 20 m/hr in a prairie, no one needed dashboardone needed dashboard instruments… and scanning theinstruments… and scanning the road occasionally, was optionalroad occasionally, was optional
•• Speeding at reduced margin in theSpeeding at reduced margin in the interdependencies richinterdependencies rich environment requires plan,environment requires plan, signals, and quantified data forsignals, and quantified data for informed decisionsinformed decisions
Fork in The Road
Paralyzed by fear and life’s capriciousness?Paralyzed by fear and life’s capriciousness?
Making a Step Ahead
•• “ Good Old” is not coming back“ Good Old” is not coming back – – dodo we have a choice? Yes, it ’s ahead!we have a choice? Yes, it ’s ahead!
•• Reason to shed the shades and lookReason to shed the shades and look aheadahead
•• Accessorize for fleet observability Accessorize for fleet observability
North American Transformer FleetNorth American Transformer Fleet -- Average Age Gain: Average Age Gain:
0.50.5 -- 0.7 years per calendar year 0.7 years per calendar year
It was in its ‘teens in 1970’sIt was in its ‘teens in 1970’s
Expected Life
Metal housing
Moving Assemblies
…the End…the End--of of --Economic LifeEconomic Life
Resistor Contacts from 550kV air-blast
Broken Linkage 220kV SF6 2-pres
IR Image - Overheating
Failure After Maintenance
•• Age, cumulative operating stress Age, cumulative operating stress
•• OperabilityOperability
•• MaintainabilityMaintainability
•• Forward looking Risk and EconomicsForward looking Risk and Economics
•• Repair / replacement needsRepair / replacement needs
•• Technology obsolescenceTechnology obsolescence
•• Support for endSupport for end--of of --life frameworklife framework and project optimizationand project optimization
Fleet Focused ManagementFleet Focused Management StrategyStrategy
balance of replacement, lifebalance of replacement, life extension, relocation,extension, relocation,
diagnostics, monitoring anddiagnostics, monitoring and maintenance alterationmaintenance alteration
•• Understanding population of theUnderstanding population of the replacement candidatesreplacement candidates
•• Simple replacement is not anSimple replacement is not an affordable optionaffordable option
1 9 6 0
1 9 6 5
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
C-Util.
Average Age Average Age
A v e r a g e S t r e s s
A v e r a g e S t r e s s
LowLow HighHigh
• Added operating stresses from increased load and bulk power transactions
• Budget cuts and cost control increased competition for available funds
• Big ticket items with a long lead time
•• Budgeting decisions enabled on quantifiable andBudgeting decisions enabled on quantifiable and
defendable basis are a must for sustainability ofdefendable basis are a must for sustainability of
ageing transformers fleet subdued to modernageing transformers fleet subdued to modern
operating conditionsoperating conditions
system)system)
– – LikeLike--for for --aa--like replacementslike replacements
•• Proactive EOL and Fleet Management StrategyProactive EOL and Fleet Management Strategy – – Respective to modern performance requirementsRespective to modern performance requirements
– – Adjusting the node capacity concurrently Adjusting the node capacity concurrently
– – Considering all alternatives brought by technology and systemConsidering all alternatives brought by technology and system developmentdevelopment
Proactive is Beneficial But it Does Represent a New Culture
•• It takes resources to analyzeIt takes resources to analyze
…predict…predict
…justify…justify
…persuade…persuade
…solid technical knowledge…solid technical knowledge
…subtle communication skills…subtle communication skills
…operational excellence…operational excellence
…and most overlooked discipline of …and most overlooked discipline of
industrial engineeringindustrial engineering
Why New Culture
•• It requires hard work on a daily basisIt requires hard work on a daily basis
•• Superb crossSuperb cross--functional relationships…functional relationships…
…and 3R…and 3R to keep themto keep them
•• Affords others the time to question… Affords others the time to question…
… and improve decision… and improve decision
“ It prevents wars and does not make any heroes”“ It prevents wars and does not make any heroes”
Obviously it is to be avoided at all costs…Obviously it is to be avoided at all costs…
…wherever possible…wherever possible
Remaining Life Assessment
R i s k o f F a i l u r e
R i s k o f F a i l u r e
Effective AgeEffective Age
Develop Alternatives
MM Prioritization
Implement Recovery Plan
What will you do with the time and resources you save
•• Time & Money dimensionTime & Money dimension
•• Early savings add opportunitiesEarly savings add opportunities
– – Funding businessFunding business integration and dynamicintegration and dynamic optimizationoptimization
– – Enabling high returnEnabling high return investments in fleetinvestments in fleet observabilityobservability
•• 300MVA Transformer Failure300MVA Transformer Failure
– – Transformer = $3M + 18monthsTransformer = $3M + 18months
– – Collateral damage = $2MCollateral damage = $2M
– – $¼ Bill in Assets Exposed to Fault Duty Stress$¼ Bill in Assets Exposed to Fault Duty Stress
•• Alternative ? Alternative ?
Challenge is to:Challenge is to:
•• Understand your fleetUnderstand your fleet
•• Its operating conditionsIts operating conditions
•• Its ageing pattern and effectsIts ageing pattern and effects
And to predict its requirements And to predict its requirements
Question:Question:
Processes That supports the ModelProcesses That supports the Model
reliability and minimizing costsreliability and minimizing costs
– – Predict Capital and O&M needs for the next 5Predict Capital and O&M needs for the next 5--10 years10 years
•• GrowthGrowth
•• ReplacementReplacement
Develop a High-level Transformer Fleet Management Model
•• Pilot study of utility needs, data availability and qualityPilot study of utility needs, data availability and quality
– – Demographics, long and short term ratings of equipment, loading,Demographics, long and short term ratings of equipment, loading, failurefailure data and worst case operational stressesdata and worst case operational stresses
•• Statistical analysis and development of demographic and failure/Statistical analysis and development of demographic and failure/endend--of of --lifelife projections for the pilot utilities’ fleet of transformersprojections for the pilot utilities’ fleet of transformers
•• Develop a more advanced version of the “Maintain / Repair / ReplDevelop a more advanced version of the “Maintain / Repair / Replace”ace” model for individual units or groups of similar unitsmodel for individual units or groups of similar units
– – Data readily available in utilitiesData readily available in utilities
– – LifeLife--cycle cost analysiscycle cost analysis
– – Forecasts for spare transformers and transformer replacementForecasts for spare transformers and transformer replacement
WiedmannWiedmann – – ACTI Inc., 2 ACTI Inc., 2ndnd Annual Conference, Annual Conference, November 10, 2003November 10, 2003 -- Miami Beach, FLMiami Beach, FL
Darije C. Nikolic,Darije C. Nikolic, EPRIsolutions;EPRIsolutions; [email protected]@EPRIsolutions.com
Michael A. Lebow,Michael A. Lebow, Consultant;Consultant; [email protected]@mikelebow.com
•• Dealing with the uncertainty passivelyDealing with the uncertainty passively
•• Saving time on analysis and planningSaving time on analysis and planning
•• “Assuming” to get away without “understanding”“Assuming” to get away without “understanding”
PXPX
RTORTO
ISOISO
ITCITC
•• Wall street metricsWall street metrics
•• Common unpreparednessCommon unpreparedness
•• Scanning the road aheadScanning the road ahead
•• Or keeping the eyes on the hoodOr keeping the eyes on the hood
What do we mean by that?
Heard of using past years budgets…Heard of using past years budgets…
…as a basis for the future needs?…as a basis for the future needs?
Heard of cost cutting initiatives…Heard of cost cutting initiatives…
…that reduce those yesteryear budgets?…that reduce those yesteryear budgets?
Heard of being 60% over the annual budget…Heard of being 60% over the annual budget…
…in less than first 6 months?…in less than first 6 months?
Heard of the older transformers being upHeard of the older transformers being up--rated…rated…
Consequently…
Heard of not having resources to analyze…Heard of not having resources to analyze…
Meeting Requirements and Achieving Operational Excellence Goals
•• Driving at 20 m/hr in a prairie, noDriving at 20 m/hr in a prairie, no one needed dashboardone needed dashboard instruments… and scanning theinstruments… and scanning the road occasionally, was optionalroad occasionally, was optional
•• Speeding at reduced margin in theSpeeding at reduced margin in the interdependencies richinterdependencies rich environment requires plan,environment requires plan, signals, and quantified data forsignals, and quantified data for informed decisionsinformed decisions
Fork in The Road
Paralyzed by fear and life’s capriciousness?Paralyzed by fear and life’s capriciousness?
Making a Step Ahead
•• “ Good Old” is not coming back“ Good Old” is not coming back – – dodo we have a choice? Yes, it ’s ahead!we have a choice? Yes, it ’s ahead!
•• Reason to shed the shades and lookReason to shed the shades and look aheadahead
•• Accessorize for fleet observability Accessorize for fleet observability
North American Transformer FleetNorth American Transformer Fleet -- Average Age Gain: Average Age Gain:
0.50.5 -- 0.7 years per calendar year 0.7 years per calendar year
It was in its ‘teens in 1970’sIt was in its ‘teens in 1970’s
Expected Life
Metal housing
Moving Assemblies
…the End…the End--of of --Economic LifeEconomic Life
Resistor Contacts from 550kV air-blast
Broken Linkage 220kV SF6 2-pres
IR Image - Overheating
Failure After Maintenance
•• Age, cumulative operating stress Age, cumulative operating stress
•• OperabilityOperability
•• MaintainabilityMaintainability
•• Forward looking Risk and EconomicsForward looking Risk and Economics
•• Repair / replacement needsRepair / replacement needs
•• Technology obsolescenceTechnology obsolescence
•• Support for endSupport for end--of of --life frameworklife framework and project optimizationand project optimization
Fleet Focused ManagementFleet Focused Management StrategyStrategy
balance of replacement, lifebalance of replacement, life extension, relocation,extension, relocation,
diagnostics, monitoring anddiagnostics, monitoring and maintenance alterationmaintenance alteration
•• Understanding population of theUnderstanding population of the replacement candidatesreplacement candidates
•• Simple replacement is not anSimple replacement is not an affordable optionaffordable option
1 9 6 0
1 9 6 5
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
C-Util.
Average Age Average Age
A v e r a g e S t r e s s
A v e r a g e S t r e s s
LowLow HighHigh
• Added operating stresses from increased load and bulk power transactions
• Budget cuts and cost control increased competition for available funds
• Big ticket items with a long lead time
•• Budgeting decisions enabled on quantifiable andBudgeting decisions enabled on quantifiable and
defendable basis are a must for sustainability ofdefendable basis are a must for sustainability of
ageing transformers fleet subdued to modernageing transformers fleet subdued to modern
operating conditionsoperating conditions
system)system)
– – LikeLike--for for --aa--like replacementslike replacements
•• Proactive EOL and Fleet Management StrategyProactive EOL and Fleet Management Strategy – – Respective to modern performance requirementsRespective to modern performance requirements
– – Adjusting the node capacity concurrently Adjusting the node capacity concurrently
– – Considering all alternatives brought by technology and systemConsidering all alternatives brought by technology and system developmentdevelopment
Proactive is Beneficial But it Does Represent a New Culture
•• It takes resources to analyzeIt takes resources to analyze
…predict…predict
…justify…justify
…persuade…persuade
…solid technical knowledge…solid technical knowledge
…subtle communication skills…subtle communication skills
…operational excellence…operational excellence
…and most overlooked discipline of …and most overlooked discipline of
industrial engineeringindustrial engineering
Why New Culture
•• It requires hard work on a daily basisIt requires hard work on a daily basis
•• Superb crossSuperb cross--functional relationships…functional relationships…
…and 3R…and 3R to keep themto keep them
•• Affords others the time to question… Affords others the time to question…
… and improve decision… and improve decision
“ It prevents wars and does not make any heroes”“ It prevents wars and does not make any heroes”
Obviously it is to be avoided at all costs…Obviously it is to be avoided at all costs…
…wherever possible…wherever possible
Remaining Life Assessment
R i s k o f F a i l u r e
R i s k o f F a i l u r e
Effective AgeEffective Age
Develop Alternatives
MM Prioritization
Implement Recovery Plan
What will you do with the time and resources you save
•• Time & Money dimensionTime & Money dimension
•• Early savings add opportunitiesEarly savings add opportunities
– – Funding businessFunding business integration and dynamicintegration and dynamic optimizationoptimization
– – Enabling high returnEnabling high return investments in fleetinvestments in fleet observabilityobservability
•• 300MVA Transformer Failure300MVA Transformer Failure
– – Transformer = $3M + 18monthsTransformer = $3M + 18months
– – Collateral damage = $2MCollateral damage = $2M
– – $¼ Bill in Assets Exposed to Fault Duty Stress$¼ Bill in Assets Exposed to Fault Duty Stress
•• Alternative ? Alternative ?
Challenge is to:Challenge is to:
•• Understand your fleetUnderstand your fleet
•• Its operating conditionsIts operating conditions
•• Its ageing pattern and effectsIts ageing pattern and effects
And to predict its requirements And to predict its requirements
Question:Question:
Processes That supports the ModelProcesses That supports the Model
reliability and minimizing costsreliability and minimizing costs
– – Predict Capital and O&M needs for the next 5Predict Capital and O&M needs for the next 5--10 years10 years
•• GrowthGrowth
•• ReplacementReplacement
Develop a High-level Transformer Fleet Management Model
•• Pilot study of utility needs, data availability and qualityPilot study of utility needs, data availability and quality
– – Demographics, long and short term ratings of equipment, loading,Demographics, long and short term ratings of equipment, loading, failurefailure data and worst case operational stressesdata and worst case operational stresses
•• Statistical analysis and development of demographic and failure/Statistical analysis and development of demographic and failure/endend--of of --lifelife projections for the pilot utilities’ fleet of transformersprojections for the pilot utilities’ fleet of transformers
•• Develop a more advanced version of the “Maintain / Repair / ReplDevelop a more advanced version of the “Maintain / Repair / Replace”ace” model for individual units or groups of similar unitsmodel for individual units or groups of similar units
– – Data readily available in utilitiesData readily available in utilities
– – LifeLife--cycle cost analysiscycle cost analysis
– – Forecasts for spare transformers and transformer replacementForecasts for spare transformers and transformer replacement