sri lanka: economic update (september...

Sri Lanka: Economic Update (September 2019)IMF – 5th and 6th Reviews of Extended Fund Facility (May, September)World Bank – Development Update (February)

© INWA Advisers Pte. Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore, Co. Reg. No. 201316041M

Contents

Background

Near Term Outlook and Risks

Sixth Review of Extended Fund Facility (September 2019)

Fifth Review of Extended Fund Facility (May 2019)

IMF Review of the Economy / Policy Issues (April 2019)

Sri Lankan Economy: A Summary in Charts (April 2019)

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page 3

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pages 11-19

pages 21-25

© INWA Advisers Pte. Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore, Co. Reg. No. 201316041M 1

BackgroundSri Lanka is a lower middle-income country with a population of 21.4mn and per capita GDP of USD 4,073 (2017)

30 years of civil war ended in 2009. GDP grew by 5.8% annually in (2010-17) with the peace dividend and a push for reconstruction

Social indicators are among the highest in South Asia and compare favourably with many middle income countries

The poverty headcount ratio declined from 15.3% in 2006-07 to 4.1% in 2016. Extreme poverty is rare, but a large share of the population subsists on slightly more then the poverty line. The country was ranked 76th in the Human Development Index in 2018

Restrictive trade policies over the last decade have caused a dramatic decline in trade. While growth has been strong, it has been inward-oriented and based on non-tradeable sectors. FDI is lower than for peer economies

High state participation in the economy has implications for competitiveness in several sectors, and for labour market dynamics

Low revenues and high debt/GDP are key macroeconomic concerns. Less than 7% of the labour force / formal establishments pay income tax. Statutory rates have been reduced without expanding the tax base. Exemptions are numerous and administration weak

Low revenues / high non-discretionary expenditure in salary bills, transfers and interest have constrained development spending and squeezed expenditure on health, education & social protection

Sri Lanka embarked on an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF in 2016. This calls for fiscal consolidation, primarily through increased revenues, a shift to flexible inflation targeting, and reforms in public financial management, SOEs, trade & competitiveness

The EFF was extended by a year to 2020 at the fifth review in May 2019. A sixth review was completed in September 2019


Near Term Outlook and RisksEconomic performance in 2018 weakened with higher oil prices, volatile markets, and political turmoil towards the end of the year

Recovery is expected to be gradual, with the IMF expecting real GDP growth in 2019 of 2.7% YoY and 3.5% in 2020

The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks given high public debt, large refinancing needs, and low reserves

Tighter external conditions could raise refinancing risks. Persistent trade tensions could reduce export growth, FDI and remittances

Lower energy prices would reduce the current account deficit and could support the implementation of energy reforms

On the domestic front, political uncertainty in the run up to November’s election poses risks to EFF programme implementation

Elections are scheduled for November 16th. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, younger brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa (victorious president in the civil war) of the SLPP is regarded as the frontrunner. He is likely to receive the support of the SLFP, led by current president Sirisena

His main challenger is Mr Sajith Premadasa of the UNP. He is likely to be supported by smaller parties representing the Tamil and Muslim minority populations and will do his best to secure the backing of the JVP, led by the commander of the army at the time of the Easter terrorist attacks, who is thought to have responded well to them.

The campaign, which is about to begin, will likely be fought on a pro-Rajapaksa, anti-Rajapaksa basis. Given former President Rajapaksa was author of the big infrastructure push after 2009, the candidates’ announcements on economic strategy will be watched with interest.


Sixth EFF Review (September 2019)Summary


Sixth Review of Extended Fund Facility (i)OverviewOn 24th September, the IMF announced it had reached a staff level agreement on Sri Lanka’s four-year Extended Fund Facility:§ It welcomed “the authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline and institutional reforms to anchor debt

sustainability, while providing space to support the ongoing recovery and social goals”§ It added that the Central Bank Act “will be a landmark reform in the roadmap towards flexible inflation

targeting, strengthening the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s mandate, governance, accountability, and transparency”

For full details, refer to IMF Press Release 19/348, which was posted to the IMF’s website on 24th September 2019

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Sri Lanka - Indices of Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates

(CBSL Data, Rebased to 2017)

NEER 2017=100 (a) REER 2017=100 (a)

In the wake of April’s terrorist attacks, it has made the following adjustments to May’s economic projections:§ Real GDP growth for 2019 revised down from

3.6% to 2.7%§ Growth in 2020 to improve to 3.5%, as tourist

arrivals and related activities recover§ Inflation to remain stable at around 4.5% during

2019-20§ Current account deficit to improve from 3.5% of

GDP in 2018 to 2.6% despite a fall in tourism and remittances, on the back of lower imports and stronger exports, which have been supported by the weaker exchange rate since the end of 2018


Sixth Review of Extended Fund Facility (ii)Fiscal Balance§ The protracted impact of the 2018 political crisis and the Easter 2019 terrorist attacks have significantly

impacted fiscal performance§ The end June fiscal target was missed “by a large margin, due to frontloading of spending from the

clearing of arrears and externally-financed capital projects carried over from 2018, as well as sharp falls in indirect revenues following the terrorist attacks”

§ The IMF accepts the EFF 5th Review targets (2019 primary surplus of 1.5% GDP) are beyond reach§ However, “the authorities are committed to achieving a primary fiscal surplus of 0.2% of GDP through

the implementation of remaining revenue measures in the 2019 budget and prudent expenditure”§ The IMF has commended the authorities’ commitment to medium term fiscal consolidation through

- broadening the tax base, enforcing compliance, strengthening spending efficiency- revamping fiscal rules, establishing an independent public debt management agency

§ Improving the performance of Sri Lanka Airlines and advancing energy sector reforms (tackling cost inefficiencies and electricity subsidies) are seen as critical if fiscal risks are to be reduced



Sixth Review of Extended Fund Facility (iii)Central Bank PolicyThe IMF supports CBSL’s “prudent and data-driven monetary approach”, and its commitment to strengthen reserve buffers.

It recommends:§ CBSL should continue to allow for FX flexibility and limit intervention to smooth volatility§ The debt service moratorium and caps on bank interest rates introduced earlier to support the tourism

sector and ease credit conditions should be lifted as soon as credit conditions stabilize

The IMF has welcomed:§ Efforts to strengthen the regulatory regime for banks and non-banking financial institutions§ CBSL’s plans to strengthen the macroprudential and contingency framework & stress testing capabilities§ Progress of strengthening the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering Financing of Terrorism regime

Bolstering CompetitivenessThe IMF has welcomed efforts gradually to liberalise trade and investment

These need to be supported “by an unwavering commitment to strengthening governance and transparency, notably in State Owned Enterprises”, as well as tackling corruption, promoting women’s economic empowerment, and targeting social transfers to those that need them most.



Fifth EFF Review (May 2019)Summary


Fifth Review of Extended Fund Facility - SummaryThe IMF granted “waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria”. It approved a USD 164mn disbursement and a one-year extension to June 2020. Total disbursements under EFF are c. USD 1.2bn

Fiscal PolicyThe IMF recommended:§ sustaining policy discipline given sizeable public debt and low external buffers. § sustained revenue mobilization. Stronger fiscal rules. Medium-term debt management strategy§ strengthening the selection and appraisal process of large-scale investment projects§ strengthening SOE governance & transparency. Restructuring Sri Lankan Airlines. Energy reforms

Monetary Policy, Exchange Policy, Financial Regulation and Supervision§ amendments to the Central Bank Law will be a major step towards inflation targeting§ efforts to rebuild reserves under greater exchange rate flexibility to be sustained§ financial sector stability to be supported through better regulation/supervision, enhancing crisis

preparedness toolkit

Structural Reforms§ trade liberalization, improving business environment, promoting investment, strengthening governance§ encouraging female & youth labour force participation, social protection, preparing for natural disasters

For full details, refer to IMF Press Release 19/162, which was posted to the IMF’s website on 13th May 2019


IMF Review of the Economy / Policy Issues(April 2019)


Economic Developments in 2018, Q1 2019 - Summary


Performance weakened in 2018 with higher oil prices, volatile markets and political turmoil (Q4 2018)

Real GDP Growth slowed to 3.2% in 2018§ A marked slowdown in manufacturing, mining/quarrying. Contraction in construction

Inflation fell to 2.8% YoY at end-2018, below the CBSL’s inner consultation band§ Lower food and transport prices. Core inflation 3.1% YoY§ Core inflation 5.6% in Mar 2019: New surveys on rentals/education fees. Tax increases on liquor, gasoline

C/A deficit rose from 2.6% GDP (2017) to 3.2% in 2018 with lower agri. exports, higher oil price

REER depreciated by 13%, amid strong market pressures, before stabilizing in Q1 2019

Reserves fell to USD 6.9bn at end 2018. EMBI spread widened to 445bps with credit rating downgrades

There was a recovery in reserves (to USD 7.6bn) and in EMBI spreads (to 405bps) in Q1 2019§ Market reaction in week following terrorist attacks was contained – with modest FX intervention by CBSL

For full details, refer to IMF Country Report 19/135, which was posted to the IMF’s website on 13th May 2019

2016 2017 2018E 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P

Growth and Inflation (%)Real GDP Growth 4.5 3.4 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8CPI (Period Average) 4.0 6.6 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0CPI (End of Period) 4.5 7.1 2.8 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0Core Inflation (End of Period) 5.8 4.3 3.1 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7

Savings and Investment (% GDP)National Savings 25.7 26.2 25.4 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.8National Investment 27.9 28.8 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.6 31.0Savings-Investment Balance -2.1 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 Private Savings-Investment Balance 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3

Public Finances (% GDP)Revenue & Grants 14.1 13.7 13.4 15.1 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2Expenditure 19.5 19.2 18.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.4Primary Balance -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4Govt. Balance -5.3 -5.5 -5.3 -4.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3Public Debt 84.1 82.7 90.0 88.9 86.8 84.0 81.2 78.4 75.4

Money and Credit (% change, EoP)Broad Money Growth 18.4 16.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0Credit to Private Sector 21.6 14.7 15.9 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.1Credit to Govt and Public Corps. 8.5 8.8 20.9 8.3 8.1 7.6 7.5 7.0 7.0

Balance of Payments Current Account Balance (% GDP) -2.1 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1Export Value Growth (%) -2.2 10.2 4.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4Import Value Growth (%) 1.3 9.4 6.0 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0

Gross Int'l Reserves (USD Mn) 6,019 7,959 6,919 8,650 9,580 10,403 11,003 11,646 11,996 In Months of Prospective Imports 2.8 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0Total External Debt (% GDP) 56.3 57.5 58.8 66.2 63.4 61.4 59.7 57.7 55.9

IMF: Selected Economic Indicators (2016-24)Note: these are projections from April 2019 and have since been revised, as indicated on Page 5



Fiscal Consolidation, Strengthening Institutions2018 primary balance was 0.4% short of 1% surplus target due to shortfall in revenues (weaker growth, fuel import duty waiver, delayed implementation of some 2018 budget measures)

2019 budget, submitted as a prior action to the 5th EFF review, targets a 1.9% primary surplus§ new revenue measures for 0.7% GDP (increase in excises, unwinding of customs waivers)§ delayed implementation of IRA and delayed 2018 measures adds 0.8% GDP to revenue§ some increased spending (incl. new Disaster Management Contingency Fund)

Plan to modernize Inland Revenue Dept./Customs due for approval by Cabinet in June 2019

Fiscal institutions being strengthened to anchor consolidation and reduce MT vulnerabilities

Public financial/investment management reforms to mitigate risks from large-scale projectsSource: IMF Staff estimates

2019 revenue mobilization includes reforms to indirectand income tax administration. VAT audits have beenexpanded to all sectors. Reforms in 2020 are plannedto strengthen tax compliance, audits, admin. further

Source: IMF staff. Items in bold refer to completed reforms

Total public debt rose to 90% of GDP in 2018. Sri Lanka remains vulnerableto currency and interest rate shocks. The authorities plan to reduce thedeficit to 2% of GDP by 2024 (debt/GDP <70%). A Medium-Term DebtStrategy to optimize debt management was approved in early April 2019.

2019 budget, submitted as part of the 5th EFF review process,targets a budget primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP


2019 budget incorporates structural adjustmentbroadly in line with the one envisaged in the fourthEFF review

Source: Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates


Strengthening SOE Governance, Reducing Fiscal RisksFiscal risks from SOEs remain elevated, despite 2018’s new fuel pricing mechanism

Three main SOEs (Ceylon Petroleum, Ceylon Electricity Board, Sri Lankan Airlines) recorded a combined loss of 1.3% GDP in 2018

Energy price reforms were interrupted by the political crisis of October 2018. The authorities are committed to full cost recovery by June 2019, although the planned approval of a price mechanism for electricity has been delayed to H2

A committee has been appointed to advance the restructuring of Sri Lankan Airlines. Its board is to prepare a plan for returning the company to profitability by end September 2019

Statements of Corporate Intent against key KPIs are being prepared by the major SOEs. The IMF has stressed the need for them to publish audited financial statements as soon as possibleSource: IMF Staff estimates


China is emerging as a leading creditor of Sri Lanka, providing both project-linked and commercial loans. At end 2018, official loans outstanding to the government were c.USD 3bn (9% of govt. debt) compared with 13% from ADB, 10% from Japan, 10% from World Bank. Including loans to SOEs, Chinese loans are c. USD 5bn (15% of govt. debt). Under the Belt & Road Initiative, the government has undertaken two key projects:

Hambantota Port: Originally financed with USD 1.1bn of bilateral loans of 15-20 yrs. maturity at interest rates of between 2% and 6.3%, the port began operations in 2012 but suffered from low utilization. In 2017, the loans were restructured into a 99-year concession awarded to China Merchants Port Holdings (CMPH), according to which CMPH paid the Sri Lankan government USD 1.1bn for an 85% share of the company. CMPH and the government plan to develop an economic zone at the port. Plans for a USD 3.9bn oil refinery supported by Oman and a cement manufacturing plant with an investment of USD 100mn were announced in March 2019.

Colombo Port City: This project involves developing an urban city centre on reclaimed land adjacent to Colombo harbour. A project company owned by China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC) has invested USD 1.4bn into the land reclamation and, in return, has received 116 hectares (out of a total 269 hectares) as a 99-year leasehold. The government is responsible for connecting the city with utilities up to the boundary of the reclaimed land. The introduction of a special regulatory regime for Port City is under consideration.

In addition to BRI projects, Exim Bank of China has provided USD 1.6bn for the Southern Expressway and USD 1bn for the Central Expressway


Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs/GDP are one of the highest of the emerging economies. Public debt rose to c.90% GDP in 2018, reflecting weaker growth and a sizeable depreciation of the Rupee.

FX denominated debt is c.50% of the total, with debt to official and multilateral creditors at c.25%

The financial obligations of SOEs were estimated to be 11.8% of GDP, as at end-2017.

External debt was c. 59% GDP and 258% of exports at end-2018. Roll-over risks are contained, as 85% f debt is medium term, but several bond repayments fall due in 2019-22. More than 50% of external debt is USD denominated

Under the EFF programme, public debt/GDP is projected to decline to 75.4% in 2024, helped by a negative interest-rate-and-growth differential and primary surpluses.

Risks to the base case are significant. For example, if the primary balance were to return to the historic level of -1.5% GDP, debt/GDP would still be 90% in 2024. Slower growth, a weaker Rupee and higher interest rates carry risks, as do SOE-related contingent liabilities

Source: IMF Staff estimates

The combined loss of Ceylon Petroleum, CeylonElectricity Board, Sri Lankan Airlines was 1.3% GDP in2018. 40% of SOE obligations are govt. guaranteed

Source: Ministry of Finance, IMF staff estimates

85% of external debt has a maturity >2 years. Chinese loans to the SriLankan public sector (including SOEs) are 15% of central governmentexternal debt, or 7% of total public debt

Public debt rose significantly to 90% GDP at end-2018. Thisexcludes the financial obligations of non-financial SOEs withgovt. guarantees (11.8% GDP at end-2017)


Gross Public Debt falls to 75% GDP in 2024 in basecase. Gross financing needs decline to 11% GDP

Source: Sri Lankan authorities and IMF staff estimates

Contributions to Changes in Public Debt(Baseline Scenario, 2019-24)

Source: IMF Staff

Profile of Central Government External Debt, 2018(Excludes SOE debt)

Sri Lanka: Public Debt, 2016-18


Debt Sustainability Analysis

Modernising the Monetary Policy Framework

In March 2019, Cabinet approved changes to the Monetary Law Act. These:§ establish price stability as CBSL’s primary objective, and a flexible exchange

rate regime§ phase out CBSL’s participation in the primary market and in the provision of

advances to the government§ strengthen CBSL’s autonomy, governance, transparency, accountability§ introduce an explicit macroprudential policy mandate for CBSL

IMF is recommending a prudent data-driven approach to monetary policy:§ the policy rate corridor was raised to 8% to 9% in November 2018§ at the time of the political crisis, the statutory reserve ratio was reduced from 7

½% to 5%§ in late 2018, inflation fell below the CBSL’s inner band, but – in consultation

with IMF – it agreed policy was appropriate in the light of temporary factors affecting inflation and remaining external pressures

§ inflation was back within the target band in early 2019 and is expected gradually to converge towards the 5% target.

CBSL is committed to rebuild reserves and allow for greater exchange rate flexibility to protect the economy against shocks§ during the political crisis in late 2018, it allowed a 13% currency depreciation in

real effective terms§ following its resolution, CBSL resumed FX purchases to rebuild reserves§ in the week following the terrorist attacks, modest intervention helped to stem

market volatility§ with USD 150mn purchased (net) by end April, CBSL was on track to meet its

reserves target for end-June. It will consult with IMF at least weekly

CBSL has agreed to remove capital flow management measures, as conditions and supporting reforms allow



Advancing Financial Sector Reforms

Credit to the private sector in 2018 grew by 16% YoY. H2 growth was boosted by:§ the effect of currency depreciation on FX (trade finance) loans§ a boost to vehicle demand caused by the extension of duty free import permits and

expectations of a tax increase in the 2019 budget

Credit growth slowed to 13 ½% in February, and is expected to settle at 13% YoY for 2019

Capital and liquidity indicators remain “adequate”, but§ NPLs stand at 3.4% in banks and 7.7% in NBFIs, with provision coverage at 57% for both§ phased introduction of new Basel III requirements in January 2019, and stricter accounting

standards for asset classification and provisioning, will increase demands on capital

The authorities view the system as “sound and stable”, but have agreed to remain “vigilant”

CBSL committed to implementing recommendations of the Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR):§ enhancing the monitoring of systemic risks§ developing macroprudential tools to contain systemic risk§ aligning stress testing methodologies with best practice

The authorities are working with WB on a new Banking Act to strengthen bank regulation / supervision§ cabinet approval of draft legislation planned by end-December 2019§ steps to harmonise regulatory/supervisory requirements for banks/NBFIs by March 2020

Upgrading the contingency framework:§ the new Banking Act will include a new resolution regime for banks and NBFIs§ it will also include provisions for a stronger legal foundation for the deposit insurance system


Accelerating Structural Reforms for Sustainable GrowthSri Lanka’s middle-income objective rests on further efforts to:§ support trade and the investment climate§ enhance social safety nets; promote female and youth employment§ strengthen governance and combat corruption

Trade restrictions and anemic FDI have hindered the development of the export sector:§ investment-based tax incentives in 2019 budget to promote investment§ improvements to contractual framework (court/judicial statistics, debt enforcement)§ new National Export Strategy (July 2018), New Trade Information Portal of regulatory/procedural

information, Single Window portal to streamline investment approvals§ 1,200 para-tariffs removed since 2017. Phase out of CESS, Port/Airport Levy over 5 years from 2019

2019 budget includes 25% increase in Samurdhi spending to c. 600,000 new persons (from H2 2019)

National Action Plan for Combating Bribery and Corruption approved for roll-out (2019-23)Source: IMF Staff estimates

Social spending (c.0.8% GDP) is below the EM andAsian EM average and suffers from low coverage andpoor targeting with 63% of lowest quintile excluded

Source: Household Income/Expenditure Survey 2016 / IMF estimates

Several steps being taken to combat bribery andcorruption following amendments to Bribery Act (2018)


FDI in 2018 was significantly below the average of Sand SE Asian developing economies as % GDP

Source: IMF staff

Tariffs, though below the 2015 peak, remainsignificantly higher than the EM average.

Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index, IMF staff estimates


Demographic Change in Sri Lanka


Sri Lanka’s population is gradually ageing. A relatively low fertility rate and high life expectancy (75 years in 2016) mean Sri Lanka’s positive demographic window is set to close in c.2025

The share of working age population peaked in 2005 at 68%. By 2050, it is projected that the proportion of the elderly (23%) will likely exceed that of the youth (17%)

The labour force participation rate (the share of those of working age that are in work or seeking work) has changed little since 1995 and, at c.59%, is low by developing market standards§ 73% of working-age men are in the labour force, but just 34% of women. § The labour force participation rate is significantly higher for women with post-secondary

education, suggesting increases in education attainment can lift participation rate (as well as productivity)

Low female labour participation is also affected by lower technical skills, inadequate maternity/paternity leave benefits, a shortage of affordable childcare facilities, labour laws that inhibit part-time/flexible work arrangements, a lack of safe transport etc.

IMF thinks fully closing the gender gap could generate income gains of 21% over the long termYouth unemployment (22%, 29% for women) is well abovethe adult rate (>30 years) of 1.5%

Population Groups and Dependency Ratios

Source: WB staff calculations base on UN World Pop. Prospects (2017 Revision)

There has been limited change in the low level of femalelabour force participation between 1995 and 2015 …

… but the difference is much lower for men and womenwith some post-secondary education

Unemployment Rate (%, by gender)(Sri Lanka Q4 2018, Average 2018)

Labour force participation by single year age group: gender

Labour Force Participation Rate(by education level, 2015, %)

In 2015, the ratio of the youth and elderly to the working agepopulation was 51%. By 2050 it is projected to be 67%.

Source: IMF / Dept. of Census & Statistics / ILO. Source: IMF / Word Bank Sti Lanka Labour Force Survey

For full details, refer to World Bank Sri Lanka Development Update - Special Focus: Demographic Change in Sri Lanka (February 2019); Annex I to IMF Country Report (May 2019)

Source: WB staff calculations based on Labour Force Survey

Sri Lankan Economy:A Summary in Charts (April 2019)

20© INWA Advisers Pte. Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore, Co. Reg. No. 201316041M

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Real Sector

Source for all charts: IMF Country Report 19/135 (Fifth EFF Review, May 2019). Please refer to the IMF’s website for full details


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Financial Market



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Foreign Exchange and Reserves



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Monetary and Financial Sector



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