$sshqgl[ & &ruuhvsrqghqfhv
TRANSCRIPT
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanBear Gulch District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Notice of Preparation, March 10, 2016 Growth Projection Letter to Cities and Counties UWMP Public Draft Comments
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanBear Gulch District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Notice of Preparation, March 10, 2016
March 10, 2016
[Name_F] [Name_L][Organization][Address][City], CA [ZipCode] Dear [Title] [Name_L]:
California Water Service (Cal Water) is committed to providing safe, reliable, and high-quality water utility service in our Bear Gulch service area. At Cal Water, one of our top priorities is ensuring that our customers have a sustainable supply of water for decades to come.
With that in mind, we wanted to take this opportunity to let you know that we are updating our Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) for this service area. This UWMP is reviewed and updated every five years pursuant to the Urban Water Management Plan Act, and will be completed by July 1, 2016. Our UWMP is a foundational document that supports our long-term water resource planning to ensure our customers have adequate water supplies to meet current and future demands.
Proposed revisions to our 2010 UWMP will be made available for public review, and we will be holding a public hearing, during which the updates for the 2015 UWMP will be discussed. The draft 2015 UWMP and the date, time and location of the public hearing will be available on our web site in a few weeks at www.calwater.com/conservation/uwmp. A hard copy of the draft UWMP will also be available at our Bear Gulch Customer Center located at 3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite A, Menlo Park, CA 94025. If you have any questions about the UWMP for this service area, please contact Michael Bolzowski, Cal Water Senior Engineer, at (408) 367-8338 or e-mail [email protected].
Sincerely,
Scott WagnerDirector of Capital Planning & Water Resources
Nicole SandkullaSenior Water Resources Planning ManagerBay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member DegoliaCouncil MemberCity of Atherton3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member WidmerCouncil MemberCity of Atherton3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member WiestCouncil MemberCity of Atherton3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor LewisMayorCity of Atherton3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Vice Mayor LempresVice MayorCity of Atherton3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member CarltonCouncil MemberCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member MuellerCouncil MemberCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member OhtakiCouncil MemberCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor ClineMayorCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor Pro Tem KeithMayor Pro TemCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Virginia ParksMunicipal Water DistrictCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Irv MeachumStreets and Water SupervisorCity of Menlo Park3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Paula KehoeWater Resources ManagerSan Francisco Public Utilities Commission - Planning Bureau3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
John MaltbieCounty Manager's OfficeSan Mateo County3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Supervisor HorsleySupervisorSan Mateo County3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Supervisor SlocumSupervisorSan Mateo County3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor DerwinMayorTown of Portola Valley3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Howard YoungPublic Works DirectorTown of Portola Valley3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Vice Mayor HughesVice MayorTown of Portola Valley3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member KastenCouncil MemberTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member MasonCouncil MemberTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member ShawCouncil MemberTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member TannerCouncil MemberTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Council Member YostCouncil MemberTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor GordonMayorTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Mayor Pro Tem LivermoreMayor Pro TemTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Paul NagengastPublic Works DirectorTown of Woodside3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
Peter DrekmeierBay Area Program DirectorTuolumne River Trust3525 Alameda De Las Pulgas, Suite AMenlo Park, CA [email protected]
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanBear Gulch District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
Growth Projection Letter to Cities and Counties
1
Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Thursday, August 20, 2015 9:28 AMTo: 'Virginia Parks ([email protected])'; 'Irv Meachum ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Smithson, Dawn; Carrasco, AnthonySubject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Bear
Gulch DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - BG.pdf
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'Virginia Parks ([email protected])'
'Irv Meachum ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:28 AM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:28 AM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:28 AM
Smithson, Dawn Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:28 AM
Carrasco, Anthony Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:28 AM
Dear Ms. Parks and Mr. Meachum,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Bear Gulch District provideswater service to the City of Menlo Park.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters with
2
available data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
3
408-367-8387
Quality. Service. Value.calwater.com
TO
TC
ht
BG
PA
WS
2014
TO
TC
ht8
/11
/20
15
3
8/3
33
43/3
33
48/3
33
53/3
33
58/3
33 4
=<3
4=<8
4==3
4==8
5333
5338
5343
5348
5353
5358
5363
5368
5373
WivzmgiwL
mwxs
vmge
p)
Tvs
nigx
ih
Wivz
mgiw
ErryepWivz
mgiw
Tvs
nigxm
sr
[exi
vWyttp}
erh
Jegmpmx
}Q
ewx
iv
Tpe
r
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
1of
2)
Ser
vP
roj
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t8
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
sA
ctu
al
&P
roje
cted
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
Ser
vic
es
Cu
sto
mer
Cat
egor
y2
00
02
00
52
01
02
01
52
01
52
02
02
02
52
03
02
03
52
04
0
SF
RS
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg.
0.3
2%
15
,81
61
6,1
34
16
,78
11
6,9
72
16
,97
21
7,2
45
17
,52
31
7,8
05
18
,09
21
8,3
83
MF
RM
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg
.1
.72
%6
46
37
58
98
99
710
51
15
12
51
36
CO
MC
OM
_D1
5Y
r.A
vg
.0
.36
%1
,27
61
,28
41
,36
51
,34
61
,34
61
,37
11
,39
61
,42
21
,44
81
,47
4
IND
IND
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
11
11
11
11
11
GO
VG
OV
_C
10
Yr.
Av
g.
0.1
3%
96
95
11
61
19
11
91
20
120
12
11
22
12
3
OT
HO
TH
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
34
30
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
IRR
IRR
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
00
78
88
88
88
TO
TA
LA
ver
age
gro
wth
rate
20
11-
204
00
.33
%1
7,2
88
17
,60
71
8,3
69
18
,55
51
8,5
55
18
,86
11
9,1
74
19
,49
21
9,8
15
20
,14
5
No
tes:
Act
ual
Ser
vic
esP
roje
cted
Ser
vic
esS
elec
ted
Tre
nd
Gro
wth
Rat
e
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Ser
vP
roj
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
2of
2)
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
s
Ma
rplo
tS
um
ma
ry
Sy
stem
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Hou
sin
g
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Per
cen
tag
e
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
an
ge
Per
cen
tag
e
HU
Ch
an
ge
Den
sity
Ch
an
ge
Bea
rG
ulch
69
85
5,7
36
21
,95
62
.54
Wo
odsi
de
31
83
85
2.1
5S
ky
line
45
1,3
35
57
92
.31
Bea
rG
ulch
1,1
30
53
,88
51
9,9
56
2.7
07
46
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
06
.3%
11
3.3
%9
3.7
%
US
Cen
sus
20
00
Su
mm
ary
US
Cen
sus
20
10
Su
mm
ary
20
00
-201
0C
ha
ng
e
MA
RP
LO
Td
iscl
aim
er:
Th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
giv
enab
ov
ear
eo
nly
rou
gh
esti
mat
es.
Th
eyar
eb
ased
on
the
US
Cen
sus
Blo
cks.
Alt
ho
ug
hC
ensu
sB
lock
sar
ep
oly
go
ns,
MA
RP
LO
Tu
ses
the
cen
toid
,o
rce
nte
rp
oin
t,ra
ther
than
the
enti
rep
oly
go
n.
Ifa
Cen
sus
Blo
ckce
ntr
oid
isw
ith
inan
yo
fth
eM
AR
PL
OT
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
sfo
rth
atb
lock
are
tall
ied
,ev
enif
on
lyp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
.It
isp
oss
ible
for
ab
lock
no
tb
eco
un
ted
ifit
sce
ntr
oid
isn
ot
wit
hin
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,ev
enth
ou
gh
tp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
s.
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y8
/11
/20
15
Att
achm
ent
B
HO
U
BG
PA
WS
2014
HO
U8
/11
/20
15
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
House/ServiceCount
Yea
r
Ho
usi
ng
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
up
ply
and
Fac
ilit
yM
aste
rP
lan
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
un
tyE
con
omic
Fo
reca
st
AB
AG
20
13
20
10
UW
MP
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
C
PO
P
BG
PA
WS
2014
PO
P8
/11
/20
15
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0
50
,00
0
60
,00
0
70
,00
0
80
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
Population
Yea
r
Po
pu
lati
on
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
upp
lyan
dF
acil
ity
Mas
ter
Pla
n
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
unt
yE
con
om
icF
ore
cast
AB
AG
201
3
201
0U
WM
P
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
D
Po
pu
lati
on
Cal
ifor
nia
Wat
erS
erv
ice
Co
mp
any
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wat
erS
up
ply
an
dD
ema
nd
An
aly
sis
an
dP
roje
ctio
ns
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
ima
te
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
Res
iden
tial
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
(DU
)S
erv
ices
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)2
00
05
3,8
85
19
,95
62
.70
01
5,8
16
64
4,1
40
64
.70
20
10
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
06
.3%
13
.3%
-6.3
%6
.1%
17
.8%
41
.0%
19
.7%
0.0
%
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
To
tal
Est
imat
edR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alR
esid
enti
alD
istr
ict
Ser
vic
es(D
U)
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)D
wel
lin
gU
nit
sP
op
ula
tio
n1
99
51
5,5
32
64
4,1
35
64
.70
19
,66
72
.70
05
3,1
04
19
96
15
,54
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,6
83
2.7
00
53
,14
91
99
71
5,6
50
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,79
02
.70
05
3,4
37
19
98
15
,74
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,8
84
2.7
00
53
,69
01
99
91
5,7
85
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,92
52
.70
05
3,8
02
20
00
15
,81
66
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,9
56
2.7
00
53
,88
52
00
11
5,8
75
64
4,3
10
67
.30
20
,18
52
.68
35
4,1
62
20
02
15
,91
96
44
,48
07
0.0
02
0,3
99
2.6
66
54
,39
22
00
31
5,8
90
64
4,6
50
72
.70
20
,54
02
.64
95
4,4
21
20
04
15
,91
06
44
,82
07
5.3
02
0,7
30
2.6
33
54
,57
42
00
51
6,1
34
63
4,9
90
78
.70
21
,12
42
.61
65
5,2
52
20
06
16
,25
56
35
,16
08
2.1
02
1,4
15
2.5
99
55
,65
12
00
71
6,2
60
63
5,3
30
84
.80
21
,59
02
.58
25
5,7
41
20
08
16
,25
27
05
,49
97
8.3
02
1,7
51
2.5
65
55
,79
12
00
91
6,4
98
76
5,6
69
75
.00
22
,16
82
.54
85
6,4
84
20
10
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
02
2,6
20
2.5
31
57
,25
42
01
11
6,8
57
83
6,0
09
72
.30
22
,86
62
.53
15
7,8
76
20
12
16
,88
48
46
,06
97
2.3
02
2,9
54
2.5
31
58
,09
8/\
20
13
16
,88
78
56
,12
47
2.3
02
3,0
10
2.5
31
58
,24
2/\
|2
01
41
6,9
44
85
6,1
42
72
.30
23
,08
52
.53
15
8,4
32
|A
CT
UA
L2
01
51
6,9
72
89
6,4
30
72
.30
23
,40
22
.53
15
9,2
33
AC
TU
AL
PR
OJE
CT
ED
20
16
17
,02
69
06
,54
17
2.3
02
3,5
67
2.5
31
59
,65
1P
RO
JEC
TE
D|
20
17
17
,08
19
26
,65
37
2.3
02
3,7
34
2.5
31
60
,07
4|
\/2
01
81
7,1
35
94
6,7
68
72
.30
23
,90
32
.53
16
0,5
02
\/2
01
91
7,1
90
95
6,8
84
72
.30
24
,07
42
.53
16
0,9
35
20
20
17
,24
59
77
,00
27
2.3
02
4,2
48
2.5
31
61
,37
42
02
51
7,5
23
10
57
,62
67
2.3
02
5,1
49
2.5
31
63
,65
42
03
01
7,8
05
11
58
,30
47
2.3
02
6,1
10
2.5
31
66
,08
72
03
51
8,0
92
12
59
,04
47
2.3
02
7,1
35
2.5
31
68
,68
32
04
01
8,3
83
13
69
,84
97
2.3
02
8,2
32
2.5
31
71
,45
8N
ote
s:li
nea
rex
trap
ola
tio
nu
sed
toes
tim
ated
MF
R-D
Ufr
om
20
00
.E
stim
ate
exte
nd
un
til
20
11
du
eto
recl
assi
fica
tio
n,
afte
rwar
ds
aco
nst
ant
MF
RU
nit
Den
sity
isu
sed
.
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Yea
r
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
Yea
r
US
Cen
sus
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Po
pu
lati
on
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntE
1
Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Thursday, August 20, 2015 9:48 AMTo: 'John Maltbie ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Smithson, Dawn; Carrasco, AnthonySubject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Bear
Gulch DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - BG.pdf
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'John Maltbie ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:48 AM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:48 AM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:48 AM
Smithson, Dawn Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:48 AM
Carrasco, Anthony Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:48 AM
Dear Mr. Maltbie,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Bear Gulch District provideswater service to the County of San Mateo.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters with
2
available data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
3
408-367-8387
Quality. Service. Value.calwater.com
TO
TC
ht
BG
PA
WS
2014
TO
TC
ht8
/11
/20
15
3
8/3
33
43/3
33
48/3
33
53/3
33
58/3
33 4
=<3
4=<8
4==3
4==8
5333
5338
5343
5348
5353
5358
5363
5368
5373
WivzmgiwL
mwxs
vmge
p)
Tvs
nigx
ih
Wivz
mgiw
ErryepWivz
mgiw
Tvs
nigxm
sr
[exi
vWyttp}
erh
Jegmpmx
}Q
ewx
iv
Tpe
r
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
1of
2)
Ser
vP
roj
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t8
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
sA
ctu
al
&P
roje
cted
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
Ser
vic
es
Cu
sto
mer
Cat
egor
y2
00
02
00
52
01
02
01
52
01
52
02
02
02
52
03
02
03
52
04
0
SF
RS
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg.
0.3
2%
15
,81
61
6,1
34
16
,78
11
6,9
72
16
,97
21
7,2
45
17
,52
31
7,8
05
18
,09
21
8,3
83
MF
RM
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg
.1
.72
%6
46
37
58
98
99
710
51
15
12
51
36
CO
MC
OM
_D1
5Y
r.A
vg
.0
.36
%1
,27
61
,28
41
,36
51
,34
61
,34
61
,37
11
,39
61
,42
21
,44
81
,47
4
IND
IND
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
11
11
11
11
11
GO
VG
OV
_C
10
Yr.
Av
g.
0.1
3%
96
95
11
61
19
11
91
20
120
12
11
22
12
3
OT
HO
TH
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
34
30
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
IRR
IRR
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
00
78
88
88
88
TO
TA
LA
ver
age
gro
wth
rate
20
11-
204
00
.33
%1
7,2
88
17
,60
71
8,3
69
18
,55
51
8,5
55
18
,86
11
9,1
74
19
,49
21
9,8
15
20
,14
5
No
tes:
Act
ual
Ser
vic
esP
roje
cted
Ser
vic
esS
elec
ted
Tre
nd
Gro
wth
Rat
e
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Ser
vP
roj
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
2of
2)
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
s
Ma
rplo
tS
um
ma
ry
Sy
stem
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Hou
sin
g
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Per
cen
tag
e
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
an
ge
Per
cen
tag
e
HU
Ch
an
ge
Den
sity
Ch
an
ge
Bea
rG
ulch
69
85
5,7
36
21
,95
62
.54
Wo
odsi
de
31
83
85
2.1
5S
ky
line
45
1,3
35
57
92
.31
Bea
rG
ulch
1,1
30
53
,88
51
9,9
56
2.7
07
46
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
06
.3%
11
3.3
%9
3.7
%
US
Cen
sus
20
00
Su
mm
ary
US
Cen
sus
20
10
Su
mm
ary
20
00
-201
0C
ha
ng
e
MA
RP
LO
Td
iscl
aim
er:
Th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
giv
enab
ov
ear
eo
nly
rou
gh
esti
mat
es.
Th
eyar
eb
ased
on
the
US
Cen
sus
Blo
cks.
Alt
ho
ug
hC
ensu
sB
lock
sar
ep
oly
go
ns,
MA
RP
LO
Tu
ses
the
cen
toid
,o
rce
nte
rp
oin
t,ra
ther
than
the
enti
rep
oly
go
n.
Ifa
Cen
sus
Blo
ckce
ntr
oid
isw
ith
inan
yo
fth
eM
AR
PL
OT
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
sfo
rth
atb
lock
are
tall
ied
,ev
enif
on
lyp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
.It
isp
oss
ible
for
ab
lock
no
tb
eco
un
ted
ifit
sce
ntr
oid
isn
ot
wit
hin
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,ev
enth
ou
gh
tp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
s.
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y8
/11
/20
15
Att
achm
ent
B
HO
U
BG
PA
WS
2014
HO
U8
/11
/20
15
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
House/ServiceCount
Yea
r
Ho
usi
ng
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
up
ply
and
Fac
ilit
yM
aste
rP
lan
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
un
tyE
con
omic
Fo
reca
st
AB
AG
20
13
20
10
UW
MP
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
C
PO
P
BG
PA
WS
2014
PO
P8
/11
/20
15
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0
50
,00
0
60
,00
0
70
,00
0
80
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
Population
Yea
r
Po
pu
lati
on
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
upp
lyan
dF
acil
ity
Mas
ter
Pla
n
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
unt
yE
con
om
icF
ore
cast
AB
AG
201
3
201
0U
WM
P
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
D
Po
pu
lati
on
Cal
ifor
nia
Wat
erS
erv
ice
Co
mp
any
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wat
erS
up
ply
an
dD
ema
nd
An
aly
sis
an
dP
roje
ctio
ns
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
ima
te
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
Res
iden
tial
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
(DU
)S
erv
ices
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)2
00
05
3,8
85
19
,95
62
.70
01
5,8
16
64
4,1
40
64
.70
20
10
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
06
.3%
13
.3%
-6.3
%6
.1%
17
.8%
41
.0%
19
.7%
0.0
%
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
To
tal
Est
imat
edR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alR
esid
enti
alD
istr
ict
Ser
vic
es(D
U)
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)D
wel
lin
gU
nit
sP
op
ula
tio
n1
99
51
5,5
32
64
4,1
35
64
.70
19
,66
72
.70
05
3,1
04
19
96
15
,54
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,6
83
2.7
00
53
,14
91
99
71
5,6
50
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,79
02
.70
05
3,4
37
19
98
15
,74
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,8
84
2.7
00
53
,69
01
99
91
5,7
85
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,92
52
.70
05
3,8
02
20
00
15
,81
66
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,9
56
2.7
00
53
,88
52
00
11
5,8
75
64
4,3
10
67
.30
20
,18
52
.68
35
4,1
62
20
02
15
,91
96
44
,48
07
0.0
02
0,3
99
2.6
66
54
,39
22
00
31
5,8
90
64
4,6
50
72
.70
20
,54
02
.64
95
4,4
21
20
04
15
,91
06
44
,82
07
5.3
02
0,7
30
2.6
33
54
,57
42
00
51
6,1
34
63
4,9
90
78
.70
21
,12
42
.61
65
5,2
52
20
06
16
,25
56
35
,16
08
2.1
02
1,4
15
2.5
99
55
,65
12
00
71
6,2
60
63
5,3
30
84
.80
21
,59
02
.58
25
5,7
41
20
08
16
,25
27
05
,49
97
8.3
02
1,7
51
2.5
65
55
,79
12
00
91
6,4
98
76
5,6
69
75
.00
22
,16
82
.54
85
6,4
84
20
10
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
02
2,6
20
2.5
31
57
,25
42
01
11
6,8
57
83
6,0
09
72
.30
22
,86
62
.53
15
7,8
76
20
12
16
,88
48
46
,06
97
2.3
02
2,9
54
2.5
31
58
,09
8/\
20
13
16
,88
78
56
,12
47
2.3
02
3,0
10
2.5
31
58
,24
2/\
|2
01
41
6,9
44
85
6,1
42
72
.30
23
,08
52
.53
15
8,4
32
|A
CT
UA
L2
01
51
6,9
72
89
6,4
30
72
.30
23
,40
22
.53
15
9,2
33
AC
TU
AL
PR
OJE
CT
ED
20
16
17
,02
69
06
,54
17
2.3
02
3,5
67
2.5
31
59
,65
1P
RO
JEC
TE
D|
20
17
17
,08
19
26
,65
37
2.3
02
3,7
34
2.5
31
60
,07
4|
\/2
01
81
7,1
35
94
6,7
68
72
.30
23
,90
32
.53
16
0,5
02
\/2
01
91
7,1
90
95
6,8
84
72
.30
24
,07
42
.53
16
0,9
35
20
20
17
,24
59
77
,00
27
2.3
02
4,2
48
2.5
31
61
,37
42
02
51
7,5
23
10
57
,62
67
2.3
02
5,1
49
2.5
31
63
,65
42
03
01
7,8
05
11
58
,30
47
2.3
02
6,1
10
2.5
31
66
,08
72
03
51
8,0
92
12
59
,04
47
2.3
02
7,1
35
2.5
31
68
,68
32
04
01
8,3
83
13
69
,84
97
2.3
02
8,2
32
2.5
31
71
,45
8N
ote
s:li
nea
rex
trap
ola
tio
nu
sed
toes
tim
ated
MF
R-D
Ufr
om
20
00
.E
stim
ate
exte
nd
un
til
20
11
du
eto
recl
assi
fica
tio
n,
afte
rwar
ds
aco
nst
ant
MF
RU
nit
Den
sity
isu
sed
.
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Yea
r
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
Yea
r
US
Cen
sus
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Po
pu
lati
on
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntE
1
Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Thursday, August 20, 2015 9:52 AMTo: 'Howard Young ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Smithson, Dawn; Carrasco, AnthonySubject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Bear
Gulch DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - BG.pdf
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'Howard Young ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:52 AM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:52 AM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:52 AM
Smithson, Dawn Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:52 AM
Carrasco, Anthony Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:52 AM
Dear Mr. Young,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Bear Gulch District provideswater service to the Town of Portola Valley.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters with
2
available data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
3
408-367-8387
Quality. Service. Value.calwater.com
TO
TC
ht
BG
PA
WS
2014
TO
TC
ht8
/11
/20
15
3
8/3
33
43/3
33
48/3
33
53/3
33
58/3
33 4
=<3
4=<8
4==3
4==8
5333
5338
5343
5348
5353
5358
5363
5368
5373
WivzmgiwL
mwxs
vmge
p)
Tvs
nigx
ih
Wivz
mgiw
ErryepWivz
mgiw
Tvs
nigxm
sr
[exi
vWyttp}
erh
Jegmpmx
}Q
ewx
iv
Tpe
r
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
1of
2)
Ser
vP
roj
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t8
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
sA
ctu
al
&P
roje
cted
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
Ser
vic
es
Cu
sto
mer
Cat
egor
y2
00
02
00
52
01
02
01
52
01
52
02
02
02
52
03
02
03
52
04
0
SF
RS
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg.
0.3
2%
15
,81
61
6,1
34
16
,78
11
6,9
72
16
,97
21
7,2
45
17
,52
31
7,8
05
18
,09
21
8,3
83
MF
RM
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg
.1
.72
%6
46
37
58
98
99
710
51
15
12
51
36
CO
MC
OM
_D1
5Y
r.A
vg
.0
.36
%1
,27
61
,28
41
,36
51
,34
61
,34
61
,37
11
,39
61
,42
21
,44
81
,47
4
IND
IND
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
11
11
11
11
11
GO
VG
OV
_C
10
Yr.
Av
g.
0.1
3%
96
95
11
61
19
11
91
20
120
12
11
22
12
3
OT
HO
TH
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
34
30
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
IRR
IRR
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
00
78
88
88
88
TO
TA
LA
ver
age
gro
wth
rate
20
11-
204
00
.33
%1
7,2
88
17
,60
71
8,3
69
18
,55
51
8,5
55
18
,86
11
9,1
74
19
,49
21
9,8
15
20
,14
5
No
tes:
Act
ual
Ser
vic
esP
roje
cted
Ser
vic
esS
elec
ted
Tre
nd
Gro
wth
Rat
e
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Ser
vP
roj
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
2of
2)
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
s
Ma
rplo
tS
um
ma
ry
Sy
stem
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Hou
sin
g
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Per
cen
tag
e
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
an
ge
Per
cen
tag
e
HU
Ch
an
ge
Den
sity
Ch
an
ge
Bea
rG
ulch
69
85
5,7
36
21
,95
62
.54
Wo
odsi
de
31
83
85
2.1
5S
ky
line
45
1,3
35
57
92
.31
Bea
rG
ulch
1,1
30
53
,88
51
9,9
56
2.7
07
46
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
06
.3%
11
3.3
%9
3.7
%
US
Cen
sus
20
00
Su
mm
ary
US
Cen
sus
20
10
Su
mm
ary
20
00
-201
0C
ha
ng
e
MA
RP
LO
Td
iscl
aim
er:
Th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
giv
enab
ov
ear
eo
nly
rou
gh
esti
mat
es.
Th
eyar
eb
ased
on
the
US
Cen
sus
Blo
cks.
Alt
ho
ug
hC
ensu
sB
lock
sar
ep
oly
go
ns,
MA
RP
LO
Tu
ses
the
cen
toid
,o
rce
nte
rp
oin
t,ra
ther
than
the
enti
rep
oly
go
n.
Ifa
Cen
sus
Blo
ckce
ntr
oid
isw
ith
inan
yo
fth
eM
AR
PL
OT
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
sfo
rth
atb
lock
are
tall
ied
,ev
enif
on
lyp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
.It
isp
oss
ible
for
ab
lock
no
tb
eco
un
ted
ifit
sce
ntr
oid
isn
ot
wit
hin
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,ev
enth
ou
gh
tp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
s.
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y8
/11
/20
15
Att
achm
ent
B
HO
U
BG
PA
WS
2014
HO
U8
/11
/20
15
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
House/ServiceCount
Yea
r
Ho
usi
ng
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
up
ply
and
Fac
ilit
yM
aste
rP
lan
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
un
tyE
con
omic
Fo
reca
st
AB
AG
20
13
20
10
UW
MP
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
C
PO
P
BG
PA
WS
2014
PO
P8
/11
/20
15
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0
50
,00
0
60
,00
0
70
,00
0
80
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
Population
Yea
r
Po
pu
lati
on
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
upp
lyan
dF
acil
ity
Mas
ter
Pla
n
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
unt
yE
con
om
icF
ore
cast
AB
AG
201
3
201
0U
WM
P
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
D
Po
pu
lati
on
Cal
ifor
nia
Wat
erS
erv
ice
Co
mp
any
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wat
erS
up
ply
an
dD
ema
nd
An
aly
sis
an
dP
roje
ctio
ns
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
ima
te
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
Res
iden
tial
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
(DU
)S
erv
ices
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)2
00
05
3,8
85
19
,95
62
.70
01
5,8
16
64
4,1
40
64
.70
20
10
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
06
.3%
13
.3%
-6.3
%6
.1%
17
.8%
41
.0%
19
.7%
0.0
%
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
To
tal
Est
imat
edR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alR
esid
enti
alD
istr
ict
Ser
vic
es(D
U)
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)D
wel
lin
gU
nit
sP
op
ula
tio
n1
99
51
5,5
32
64
4,1
35
64
.70
19
,66
72
.70
05
3,1
04
19
96
15
,54
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,6
83
2.7
00
53
,14
91
99
71
5,6
50
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,79
02
.70
05
3,4
37
19
98
15
,74
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,8
84
2.7
00
53
,69
01
99
91
5,7
85
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,92
52
.70
05
3,8
02
20
00
15
,81
66
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,9
56
2.7
00
53
,88
52
00
11
5,8
75
64
4,3
10
67
.30
20
,18
52
.68
35
4,1
62
20
02
15
,91
96
44
,48
07
0.0
02
0,3
99
2.6
66
54
,39
22
00
31
5,8
90
64
4,6
50
72
.70
20
,54
02
.64
95
4,4
21
20
04
15
,91
06
44
,82
07
5.3
02
0,7
30
2.6
33
54
,57
42
00
51
6,1
34
63
4,9
90
78
.70
21
,12
42
.61
65
5,2
52
20
06
16
,25
56
35
,16
08
2.1
02
1,4
15
2.5
99
55
,65
12
00
71
6,2
60
63
5,3
30
84
.80
21
,59
02
.58
25
5,7
41
20
08
16
,25
27
05
,49
97
8.3
02
1,7
51
2.5
65
55
,79
12
00
91
6,4
98
76
5,6
69
75
.00
22
,16
82
.54
85
6,4
84
20
10
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
02
2,6
20
2.5
31
57
,25
42
01
11
6,8
57
83
6,0
09
72
.30
22
,86
62
.53
15
7,8
76
20
12
16
,88
48
46
,06
97
2.3
02
2,9
54
2.5
31
58
,09
8/\
20
13
16
,88
78
56
,12
47
2.3
02
3,0
10
2.5
31
58
,24
2/\
|2
01
41
6,9
44
85
6,1
42
72
.30
23
,08
52
.53
15
8,4
32
|A
CT
UA
L2
01
51
6,9
72
89
6,4
30
72
.30
23
,40
22
.53
15
9,2
33
AC
TU
AL
PR
OJE
CT
ED
20
16
17
,02
69
06
,54
17
2.3
02
3,5
67
2.5
31
59
,65
1P
RO
JEC
TE
D|
20
17
17
,08
19
26
,65
37
2.3
02
3,7
34
2.5
31
60
,07
4|
\/2
01
81
7,1
35
94
6,7
68
72
.30
23
,90
32
.53
16
0,5
02
\/2
01
91
7,1
90
95
6,8
84
72
.30
24
,07
42
.53
16
0,9
35
20
20
17
,24
59
77
,00
27
2.3
02
4,2
48
2.5
31
61
,37
42
02
51
7,5
23
10
57
,62
67
2.3
02
5,1
49
2.5
31
63
,65
42
03
01
7,8
05
11
58
,30
47
2.3
02
6,1
10
2.5
31
66
,08
72
03
51
8,0
92
12
59
,04
47
2.3
02
7,1
35
2.5
31
68
,68
32
04
01
8,3
83
13
69
,84
97
2.3
02
8,2
32
2.5
31
71
,45
8N
ote
s:li
nea
rex
trap
ola
tio
nu
sed
toes
tim
ated
MF
R-D
Ufr
om
20
00
.E
stim
ate
exte
nd
un
til
20
11
du
eto
recl
assi
fica
tio
n,
afte
rwar
ds
aco
nst
ant
MF
RU
nit
Den
sity
isu
sed
.
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Yea
r
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
Yea
r
US
Cen
sus
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Po
pu
lati
on
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntE
1
Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Thursday, August 20, 2015 9:56 AMTo: 'Paul Nagengast ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Smithson, Dawn; Carrasco, AnthonySubject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Bear
Gulch DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - BG.pdf
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'Paul Nagengast ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:56 AM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:56 AM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:56 AM
Smithson, Dawn Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:56 AM
Carrasco, Anthony Delivered: 8/20/2015 9:56 AM
Dear Mr. Nagengast,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Bear Gulch District provideswater service to the Town of Woodside.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters with
2
available data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
3
408-367-8387
Quality. Service. Value.calwater.com
TO
TC
ht
BG
PA
WS
2014
TO
TC
ht8
/11
/20
15
3
8/3
33
43/3
33
48/3
33
53/3
33
58/3
33 4
=<3
4=<8
4==3
4==8
5333
5338
5343
5348
5353
5358
5363
5368
5373
WivzmgiwL
mwxs
vmge
p)
Tvs
nigx
ih
Wivz
mgiw
ErryepWivz
mgiw
Tvs
nigxm
sr
[exi
vWyttp}
erh
Jegmpmx
}Q
ewx
iv
Tpe
r
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
1of
2)
Ser
vP
roj
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t8
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
sA
ctu
al
&P
roje
cted
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
Ser
vic
es
Cu
sto
mer
Cat
egor
y2
00
02
00
52
01
02
01
52
01
52
02
02
02
52
03
02
03
52
04
0
SF
RS
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg.
0.3
2%
15
,81
61
6,1
34
16
,78
11
6,9
72
16
,97
21
7,2
45
17
,52
31
7,8
05
18
,09
21
8,3
83
MF
RM
FR
_B
5Y
r.A
vg
.1
.72
%6
46
37
58
98
99
710
51
15
12
51
36
CO
MC
OM
_D1
5Y
r.A
vg
.0
.36
%1
,27
61
,28
41
,36
51
,34
61
,34
61
,37
11
,39
61
,42
21
,44
81
,47
4
IND
IND
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
11
11
11
11
11
GO
VG
OV
_C
10
Yr.
Av
g.
0.1
3%
96
95
11
61
19
11
91
20
120
12
11
22
12
3
OT
HO
TH
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
34
30
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
IRR
IRR
_A
Zer
oG
row
thR
ate
0.0
0%
00
78
88
88
88
TO
TA
LA
ver
age
gro
wth
rate
20
11-
204
00
.33
%1
7,2
88
17
,60
71
8,3
69
18
,55
51
8,5
55
18
,86
11
9,1
74
19
,49
21
9,8
15
20
,14
5
No
tes:
Act
ual
Ser
vic
esP
roje
cted
Ser
vic
esS
elec
ted
Tre
nd
Gro
wth
Rat
e
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Ser
vP
roj
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntA
(Sh
eet
2of
2)
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y
Ca
lifo
rnia
Wa
ter
Ser
vic
eC
om
pa
ny
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wa
ter
Su
pp
lya
nd
Dem
an
dA
na
lysi
sa
nd
Pro
ject
ion
s
Ma
rplo
tS
um
ma
ry
Sy
stem
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Cen
sus
Blo
cks
Po
pu
lati
on
Hou
sin
g
Un
its
(HU
)
Den
sity
Per
cen
tag
e
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
an
ge
Per
cen
tag
e
HU
Ch
an
ge
Den
sity
Ch
an
ge
Bea
rG
ulch
69
85
5,7
36
21
,95
62
.54
Wo
odsi
de
31
83
85
2.1
5S
ky
line
45
1,3
35
57
92
.31
Bea
rG
ulch
1,1
30
53
,88
51
9,9
56
2.7
07
46
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
06
.3%
11
3.3
%9
3.7
%
US
Cen
sus
20
00
Su
mm
ary
US
Cen
sus
20
10
Su
mm
ary
20
00
-201
0C
ha
ng
e
MA
RP
LO
Td
iscl
aim
er:
Th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
giv
enab
ov
ear
eo
nly
rou
gh
esti
mat
es.
Th
eyar
eb
ased
on
the
US
Cen
sus
Blo
cks.
Alt
ho
ug
hC
ensu
sB
lock
sar
ep
oly
go
ns,
MA
RP
LO
Tu
ses
the
cen
toid
,o
rce
nte
rp
oin
t,ra
ther
than
the
enti
rep
oly
go
n.
Ifa
Cen
sus
Blo
ckce
ntr
oid
isw
ith
inan
yo
fth
eM
AR
PL
OT
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,th
ep
op
ula
tio
nan
dh
ou
sin
gn
um
ber
sfo
rth
atb
lock
are
tall
ied
,ev
enif
on
lyp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
.It
isp
oss
ible
for
ab
lock
no
tb
eco
un
ted
ifit
sce
ntr
oid
isn
ot
wit
hin
sele
cted
ob
ject
s,ev
enth
ou
gh
tp
art
of
the
blo
ckis
wit
hin
the
sele
cted
ob
ject
s.
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Mar
plo
tS
um
mar
y8
/11
/20
15
Att
achm
ent
B
HO
U
BG
PA
WS
2014
HO
U8
/11
/20
15
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
House/ServiceCount
Yea
r
Ho
usi
ng
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
up
ply
and
Fac
ilit
yM
aste
rP
lan
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
un
tyE
con
omic
Fo
reca
st
AB
AG
20
13
20
10
UW
MP
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
C
PO
P
BG
PA
WS
2014
PO
P8
/11
/20
15
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0
50
,00
0
60
,00
0
70
,00
0
80
,00
0 19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
Population
Yea
r
Po
pu
lati
on
Pro
ject
ion
s
Cal
Wat
erP
roje
ctio
n
US
Cen
sus
CD
OF
Wat
erS
upp
lyan
dF
acil
ity
Mas
ter
Pla
n
DO
TS
anM
ateo
Co
unt
yE
con
om
icF
ore
cast
AB
AG
201
3
201
0U
WM
P
±5
%
Att
achm
ent
D
Po
pu
lati
on
Cal
ifor
nia
Wat
erS
erv
ice
Co
mp
any
-B
ear
Gu
lch
Dis
tric
tW
ork
shee
t1
2
Wat
erS
up
ply
an
dD
ema
nd
An
aly
sis
an
dP
roje
ctio
ns
Po
pu
lati
on
Est
ima
te
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
Res
iden
tial
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
(DU
)S
erv
ices
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)2
00
05
3,8
85
19
,95
62
.70
01
5,8
16
64
4,1
40
64
.70
20
10
57
,25
42
2,6
20
2.5
31
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
06
.3%
13
.3%
-6.3
%6
.1%
17
.8%
41
.0%
19
.7%
0.0
%
Sin
gle
Fam
ily
Fla
tR
ate
To
tal
Est
imat
edR
esid
enti
alS
erv
ices
Res
iden
tial
Un
itR
esid
enti
alR
esid
enti
alD
istr
ict
Ser
vic
es(D
U)
Un
its
(DU
)D
ensi
tyS
erv
ices
(DU
)D
wel
lin
gU
nit
sP
op
ula
tio
n1
99
51
5,5
32
64
4,1
35
64
.70
19
,66
72
.70
05
3,1
04
19
96
15
,54
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,6
83
2.7
00
53
,14
91
99
71
5,6
50
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,79
02
.70
05
3,4
37
19
98
15
,74
36
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,8
84
2.7
00
53
,69
01
99
91
5,7
85
64
4,1
40
64
.70
19
,92
52
.70
05
3,8
02
20
00
15
,81
66
44
,14
06
4.7
01
9,9
56
2.7
00
53
,88
52
00
11
5,8
75
64
4,3
10
67
.30
20
,18
52
.68
35
4,1
62
20
02
15
,91
96
44
,48
07
0.0
02
0,3
99
2.6
66
54
,39
22
00
31
5,8
90
64
4,6
50
72
.70
20
,54
02
.64
95
4,4
21
20
04
15
,91
06
44
,82
07
5.3
02
0,7
30
2.6
33
54
,57
42
00
51
6,1
34
63
4,9
90
78
.70
21
,12
42
.61
65
5,2
52
20
06
16
,25
56
35
,16
08
2.1
02
1,4
15
2.5
99
55
,65
12
00
71
6,2
60
63
5,3
30
84
.80
21
,59
02
.58
25
5,7
41
20
08
16
,25
27
05
,49
97
8.3
02
1,7
51
2.5
65
55
,79
12
00
91
6,4
98
76
5,6
69
75
.00
22
,16
82
.54
85
6,4
84
20
10
16
,78
17
55
,83
97
7.4
02
2,6
20
2.5
31
57
,25
42
01
11
6,8
57
83
6,0
09
72
.30
22
,86
62
.53
15
7,8
76
20
12
16
,88
48
46
,06
97
2.3
02
2,9
54
2.5
31
58
,09
8/\
20
13
16
,88
78
56
,12
47
2.3
02
3,0
10
2.5
31
58
,24
2/\
|2
01
41
6,9
44
85
6,1
42
72
.30
23
,08
52
.53
15
8,4
32
|A
CT
UA
L2
01
51
6,9
72
89
6,4
30
72
.30
23
,40
22
.53
15
9,2
33
AC
TU
AL
PR
OJE
CT
ED
20
16
17
,02
69
06
,54
17
2.3
02
3,5
67
2.5
31
59
,65
1P
RO
JEC
TE
D|
20
17
17
,08
19
26
,65
37
2.3
02
3,7
34
2.5
31
60
,07
4|
\/2
01
81
7,1
35
94
6,7
68
72
.30
23
,90
32
.53
16
0,5
02
\/2
01
91
7,1
90
95
6,8
84
72
.30
24
,07
42
.53
16
0,9
35
20
20
17
,24
59
77
,00
27
2.3
02
4,2
48
2.5
31
61
,37
42
02
51
7,5
23
10
57
,62
67
2.3
02
5,1
49
2.5
31
63
,65
42
03
01
7,8
05
11
58
,30
47
2.3
02
6,1
10
2.5
31
66
,08
72
03
51
8,0
92
12
59
,04
47
2.3
02
7,1
35
2.5
31
68
,68
32
04
01
8,3
83
13
69
,84
97
2.3
02
8,2
32
2.5
31
71
,45
8N
ote
s:li
nea
rex
trap
ola
tio
nu
sed
toes
tim
ated
MF
R-D
Ufr
om
20
00
.E
stim
ate
exte
nd
un
til
20
11
du
eto
recl
assi
fica
tio
n,
afte
rwar
ds
aco
nst
ant
MF
RU
nit
Den
sity
isu
sed
.
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Yea
r
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
Mu
lti
Fam
ily
Res
iden
tial
Po
pu
lati
on
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
Yea
r
US
Cen
sus
Per
son
sp
er
Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
BG
PA
WS
20
14
Po
pu
lati
on
8/1
1/2
01
5
Att
ach
me
ntE
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management Plan
Bear Gulch District
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Public Draft Comments
Note: There were no comments received for the UWMP Public Draft.