stabilisation of ghg concentrations in the atmosphere findings of the ipcc bert metz co-chairman...
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Stabilisation of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere
Findings of the IPCC
Bert Metzco-chairman IPCC Working Group III
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Warning
• These are findings from TAR and SRCCS
• AR4 findings may be different
• AR4 approval/ acceptance dates:– January 29- February 1, 2007: WG I– April 2-5, 2007: WG II– April 30- May 3, 2007: WG III
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Article 2 of the UNFCCC
• “… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ..”
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Climate change risks and global mean temperature
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Risks o
f larg
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non- lineariti
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Risks o
f Aggre
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impactsRisk
s of r
egional
impactsRisk
s of e
xtreme
weather eve
nts
Risks t
o unique and
threatened eco
syste
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source: IPCC TAR Synthesis Report, 2001
Global mean temperature and stabilisation level
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AR4: look for latest assessment of
• climate sensitivity >> relationship between GHG concentrations and global mean temperature
• climate change risks
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To stabilise concentrations in the atmosphere emissions have to go down to very low levels
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0
5
10
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35
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19902000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A2 Scenario
ref
550550
750750
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30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1B Scenario
450450 550550 650650
Glo
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arb
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ioxi
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Em
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s (G
tC)
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19902000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES B1 Scenario
450450550550
ref
0
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10
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35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1T Scenario
ref
450450550550
650650
0
5
10
15
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25
30
35
40
19902000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES B2 Scenario
450450 550550 650650
ref
0
5
10
15
20
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30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1FI Scenario
450450550550650650750750
ref
The stabilisation challenge depends on the reference scenario and the stabilisation level
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Emission reductions required for different stabilisation levels
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Emission reductions required for different stabilisation levels
Emission reductions by whom?
• All stabilisation studies ( except B1 baseline) assume that industrialised countries reduce their GHG emissions first
• Emissions from all regions diverge from baselines at some point
• B1 baseline: emission reductions through sustainable development policies
SRCCS Figure TS-12
Illustrative example of the global potential contribution of CCSas part of a mitigation portfolio (MiniCAM and MESSAGE results)
Illustrative example of mitigation options contributing to stabilisation
SRCCS, fig TS12
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Costs of stabilisation go up with lower stabilisation levels CO2 only
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Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the assumed emissions baseline
Costs for some countries/regions/time periods may be (much) higher
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Decision making
• Step-by-step process towards stabilisation• Balancing risks of insufficient or excessive action• Portfolio of implementing mitigation and
adaptation options, policy instruments and further technology development and diffusion
• Equity and efficiency are critical elements of international regimes
• Integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation into sustainable development policies
IPCC
AR4: look for latest assessment of
• Multigas stabilisation studies (CO2 and other GHGs)
• Stabilisation studies with more mitigation options• Stabilisation studies for lower stabilisation levels
than in TAR• New estimates of costs of stabilisation (in
relation to costs of inaction) and distribution of costs depending on international regime modes
• Relation between sustainable development and climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation
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