Stakeholder-driven, multi-sectoral climate adaptation in small urban areas

ASP Colloquium - 6th August 2014, Boulder

Amanda Edelman, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Alex Libardoni, Penn State University

Maria Pregnolato, University of Newcastle

Derek Rosendahl, University of Oklahoma

Katrin Sedlmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Julie Shortridge, Johns Hopkins University

Heather Yocum, University of Colorado and NOAA

Outline

Overview

Introduction

Impact Assessment

Climate analysis

Evaluation

Conclusion

• Motivation • Research plan

• Challenges • Research questions • Approach • Outcomes

• Objectives • Approach • Outcomes

• Overview • Research questions

Objective

• To develop an integrated framework that will support stakeholder driven climate adaptation plans for urban areas

Research Question

• Does using an iterative, stakeholder-driven approach improve outcomes such as consensus, generation of alternatives and social learning?

OVERVIEW IMPACT CLIMATE EVALUATION CONCLUSIONINTRODUCTION

Stakeholder

• Ongoing engagement with climate scientists throughout the tool development process

Impact Assessment• Integration of differing levels of adaptive capacity and

resilience within the population response to climate change events

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Motivation Research Plan

IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research Plan Framework

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Motivation Research Plan

IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research Timeline

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Motivation Research Plan

IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Challenges

- Many infrastructure systems already very sensitive to climate today

- Infrastructure impacts analysis:

- Evaluation of physical disruptions without consideration of

- How do these disruptions impact human wellbeing?

- How do people respond? Adaptive capacity?

- Impacts are uncertain – but so are the consequences and ability to respond

IMPACT CLIMATE

Challenges OutcomesApproach

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Research questions

CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research questions

1. Are extreme climatic conditions associated with a measurable increase in infrastructure disruptions, negative public health outcomes and economic losses that cannot be captured by considering mean climatic conditions alone?

2. Does combination of survey-based measurements of exposure and adaptive capacity improve estimates of health and economic outcomes relative to the use of physical measurements alone?

IMPACT CLIMATE

OutcomesApproach

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Research questionsChallenges

CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

IMPACT

OutcomesApproach

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

1. Empirical evaluation to relate climate extremes, infrastructure outages and community impact• Independent variables related to climate events, for example:– 24-hour precipitation above some threshold– 7-day average maximum temperature• Example response variables related to

– Physical infrastructure outages (water, power, transport): Percent of system concurrently out of service, outage duration

– Economic losses: insurance claims, school closures– Public health outcomes: all-cause mortality, 911 calls,

hospital visits

CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research questionsChallenges

2. Assessment of exposure/adaptive capacity

• Survey-based evaluation of

– Exposure: what are the major physical stressors related to climate extremes and infrastructure disruptions that the household has faced in the past five years?

– Adaptive capacity: How did the household respond when faced with these physical stressors, and what encouraged or limited the degree of response?

• Census data: Age, education, employment, etc.• Neighborhood-level indicators of exposure, adaptive capacity,

and resilience

IMPACT

Outcomes

(Romero-Lankao et al., 2014)

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Approach

CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research questionsChallenges

Outcomes

• Identification of climate conditions and physical stressors (such as infrastructure disruptions) that cause greatest impacts in city

• Relation of physical exposure to impacts on human health and economic wellbeing

• Geographically-specific information on exposure and adaptive capacity across city

IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Outcomes

CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

ApproachResearch questionsChallenges

Objectives

• Identify changes in relevant climate variables to support adaptation planning in urban areas

• Address associated uncertainties

– Future emissions

– Model structure

– Internal Variability

CLIMATE

Objectives OutcomesApproach

IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

CLIMATE

Objectives OutcomesApproach

IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Climate projections

• Statistically downscaled CMIP 5 data products

• Testing of different statistical downscaling methods for downscaling of NARCCAP Ensemble data

(Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011)

CLIMATE

Objectives OutcomesApproach

IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Assessment of hazardous events

• Interaction with impact modelers

• Assessment of projected changes in occurrence of the relevant climate variables and extremes

• Develop methods for description of multivariate extremes/return periods

• Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations

CLIMATE

Objectives OutcomesApproach

IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Outcomes

• Projected changes of hazardous events relevant for infrastructure

• Tools (e.g. risk maps) that combine climate change and impact studies (together with impact modelers)

• Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations

• Workshops for stakeholders to explain climate results

Tool Examples

IMPACT

Outcomes

OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

http://animalnewyork.com/2013/nycs-newest-flood-zones-map/http://commerce.alaska.gov/dnn/dcra/PlanningLandManagement/RiskMAP.aspx

CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Evaluation

• Outcomes

(1) consensus-building

(2) generation of alternatives

(3) social learning

• Interviews and surveys

– Before, during, and after process

• Participant observation

– During workshops and meetings

EVALUATION CONCLUSION

Overview Research Questions

IMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

EVALUATION CONCLUSIONIMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

Outcomes: (1) consensus-building; (2) generation of alternatives; (3) social learning

Overview Research Questions

Questions to Guide Evaluation

1. Does this process increase connectivity amongst actors or deepen existing connections? (Outcomes 1 and 3)

2. How does this interaction impact the production of climate information? Does it change workshop participants’ perceptions of uncertainty and climate information? (Outcomes 2 and 3)

3. Does this approach succeed in bringing under-served or under-represented stakeholders into the decision-making processes? (Outcomes 1 and 3)

4. How does the inclusion (or exclusion) of these groups affect impact modeling, tool design and the generation of

adaptation options? (Outcome 2)

Conclusion

• Cities are aware of the need to:

– Adapt to climate change and extremes

– Involve stakeholders in this process

• How to do this – still unclear

• This project will create

– a framework for stakeholder-driven adaptation

– Insights into the benefits and challenges of taking this approach

EVALUATION CONCLUSIONIMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION

…thank you.