standard bank - cib pitch book - ppt 2007 impact...source: standard bank analysis, iea (2015), bg...
TRANSCRIPT
1 Contents
Section Page
1. Why Standard Bank 2
2. Global LNG Market 5
3. New Africa Producers? 11
4. New Africa Consumers? 17
5. Conclusion 27
3 Standard Bank in Africa
Distinctive Presence Distinctive People Strong Market Conditions
Largest Pan-African footprint
Increased quality deal flow in/out of
Africa
Excellent Cross-Border Connectivity
Local balance sheet
Very strong specialist teams in
Johannesburg, Lagos, London, Nairobi
and New York
Full range of expertise in-country
Improving fundamentals
Movement towards market based
economies
Increased foreign investor interest
Commodity-led economic growth
Over 150 years of experience in Africa
Largest bank in Africa by assets and headcount
Approximately 49,000 employees in 20 African countries
Headquartered in Johannesburg
Growth on the continent is a key strategic focus area
Investment banking presence across the region and in key
markets strengthened by recent acquisitions:
– IBTC Chartered Bank, Nigeria
– CFC Bank, Kenya
– Recently opened in South Sudan
– Recently opened a branch offices in Cote d’Ivoire and
Ethiopia
Ability to provide corporate and investment banking
solutions including advisory, transaction structuring and
bespoke debt funding packages in local and foreign
currencies
Standard Bank has
an unrivalled
presence in sub-
Saharan Africa with
on-the-ground
presence in 20
African countries
Operational Overview
Investment Banking in Africa
Ghana
Nigeria
South
Sudan
Kenya D.R.C
Angola
Namibia
South
Africa Lesotho
Swaziland
Mauritius Botswana
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Malawi
Tanzania
Uganda
Standard Bank
Stanbic Bank
Stanbic IBTC Bank
CFC Stanbic Bank
Cote
d’Ivoire
Ethiopia
Representative Office
4 Oil & Gas Client Coverage
Oil & Gas is one of Standard Bank’s six key sector focuses
A dedicated Oil & Gas team provides:
– The full corporate and investment banking product range to clients active in the industry
– Oil & Gas expertise
– Local industry knowledge and connections
– Strong client relationships
– Team of 11 in London, with offices in Johannesburg, Beijing, New York, Dubai, Johannesburg, Nairobi, Accra and Lagos
Oladele Kuti
Oil & Gas, Nigeria
+234 803 555 5777
oladele.kuti@
stanbic.com
Dinis Mendes
Oil & Gas, Angola
+244 226 432 538
Dinis.Mendes@
standardbank.co.ao
Fernando Docters
Oil & Gas, Americas
+1 212 407-5165
fernando.docters@
standardny.com
Jonathan Ross
Oil & Gas, London
+44 20 3167 5173
jonathan.ross@
standardsbg.com
Power &
Infrastructure
Oil & Gas
Mining & Metals
Telecoms & Media
Key Industry Sectors
Neill Farney
Chief Petroleum Engineer
+44 20 3167 5194
neil.fairnie@
standardsbg.com
Charlie Houston
Oil & Gas, London
+44 20 3167 5175
charlie.houston@
standardsbg.com
Damien Mauvais
Oil & Gas, London
+44 20 3167 5205
damien.mauvais@
standardsbg.com
+27 11 721 7829
paul.eardley-taylor@
standardbank.co.za
Paul Eardley-Taylor
O&G, SA & Southern Africa
+44 20 3167 5202
simon.ashby-rudd@
standardsbg.com
Simon Ashby-Rudd
Global Head, Oil & Gas
+27 11 344 5168
khwezi.tiya@
standardbank.co.za
Khwezi Tiya
Oil & Gas, South Africa
Strong technical
understanding
through reservoir
and production
engineer
Fan Bing Business Origination & Cross Border
Debt Advisory
+86 10 6649 6700
Bing.Fan@
standardbank.com.cn
Oscar Kang’oro
Coverage, East Africa
+254 20 326 8400
Oscar.kang’oro@
standardbank.com
Simon Reeves
Coverage, Middle East
+971 4302 1104
simon.reeves@
standardbank.com
Nii Okyne
Oil & Gas, Ghana
+233 302 610690
OkyneN@
stanbic.com.gh
Financial
Institutions
Consumer
6
Global LNG Market
Overview
Over the last 30 years, the demand for gas as a substitute for coal and oil as an energy source has increased, supplemented by the
growth of indigenous gas. In recent years, there has been a particular increase in the demand for LNG from Asian countries - which
account for 75% of global demand - as a result of continued growth and Japan’s move away from nuclear power following the
Tohoku Earthquake.
However, supply is growing too. North America (USA/Canada), Australia, Asia Pacific brownfield projects, Russia and East Africa
have all been identified as possible LNG suppliers in the future with import terminals being converted to export terminals in the US
post the shale boom. The EIA predicts the US to be the third largest LNG exporter by 2019.
Various LNG projects are planned to meet LNG demand but factors such as: permitting and technical issues (resulting in costs) and
competing demand will also inhibit project development and execution
Source: Standard Bank Analysis, IEA (2015), BG (2015), BP (2015) Wood Mackenzie (2014), Exxon Mobil (2014)
Various LNG
projects have been
planned globally but
the development of
these will be
determined by the
level of global LNG
market demand after
2020.
Not all planned LNG plants will be built. Securing sales contracts and low cost construction
and / or upstream costs needs to be a priority for all potential greenfield projects
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Current Supply IEA 2019 BG 2025 BP 2030 Wood Mackenzie2030
Exxon Mobil 2040
Operational Construction Planned Selected Global Demand Predictions
MT
PA
7
2012 – 2016
– 67 MTPA under construction in Australia (new projects, e.g. Angola and PNG now online/being refurbished)
– Lead US regas conversions will come online (e.g. Sabine Pass)
– Four projects took FID in 2015 representing over 19 MTPA capacity, divided between Corpus Christi, Freeport and Sabine
Pass (all USA) along with Cameroon FLNG
2019 onwards
– Potential LNG from USA, Canada, Russia and East Africa, supplying potential Asian upside demand of 100 MTPA
Global LNG Market
Market Opportunity
What supply will meet growing long-term demand?
Source: BG Group, Multiple
New LNG supply
capacity is expected
from Australia and
US regas
conversions (fuelled
by shale gas), with
newer projects from
Canada and
Cameroon also
planned
Global demand is
relatively flat (due to
weak demand fro
European and
China) prices have
fallen as a result of
low oil prices as well
as both structural
and seasonal
factors (weakening
demand from Asia)
New markets like the
Baltics, Egypt,
Poland, Bahrain,
Finland and Jordan
are buying LNG
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IMF - NG, Europe
IMF - NG, LNG Japan
IMF, NG, Henry Hub
World Bank - NG, Europe
World Bank - NG, LNG Japan
World Bank - NG, Henry Hub
Global LNG Market
LNG Demand & Supply Commentary
November 2015 -
Cheniere has sold
19.75 MTPA through
long term contracts
with 4 MTPA
planned for spot
markets
Asian Buyers
increasingly
focusing on cost as
JCC and Henry Hub
price differentials
remains large
Global demand is likely to remain flat with supply expected to grow significantly as new projects currently under construction and US
LNG start coming online
Traditionally LNG contracts priced on oil indexation basis (e.g. Japanese Crude Cocktail – “JCC’’), Asian buyers now used US gas
glut to negotiate contracts indexed to Henry Hub (“HH”) prices. Japan, Korea and Singapore recently concluded long-term contracts
solely gas indexed
Asian energy policy uncertainty (e.g. nuclear build) is creating LNG demand uncertainty and Asian buyers want increased
flexibility in contract volumes and pricing, raising challenges for greenfield LNG plants
Source: World Bank; IMF (2016)
Gas and LNG prices 2015 - 2020
BG expect global LNG demand to increase @ 4.2% - 5.7% CAGR to 2025 (driven by Asia)
meaning a 150 MTPA supply gap with market conditions inhibiting long-term contracts
US Regas conversions are expected to supply some but not all demand, leaving an
opportunity for – inter alia - Mozambique LNG
9 Global LNG Market
Australian - Projects Under Construction
Australia’s position
as lead exporter in
the Asia-Pacific
region is being
threatened by the
low oil price (due to
perceived higher
cost projects)
World’s first floating
LNG plant being
build in Australia
Commentary
Australia has six (6) LNG developments under construction
Projects that came online in 2015 include Australia-Pacific
Train 1, Gladstone Train 1 and Queensland LNG
At the current oil price these projects are expected to struggle
to break even though they will make Australia the leading
LNG exporter by 2018
Australia has sales contracts in place with Japan, China and
South Korea
Location Total Capacity (MTPA) Sponsors Shipping Date
Gladstone LNG T2 Queensland 3.9 Total Q2 2016
Australia-Pacific LNG T2 Curtis Island 4.5 Origin/ConocoPhillips/Sinopec Q2 2016
Gorgon T2 Barrow Island 5.2 Chevron Q4 2016
Prelude Broome 5.3 Shell TBA 2017
Wheatstone Onslow 8.9 Chevron Q4 2016
Ichthys Darwin 8.9 Total Q3 2017
Total 36.7
Currently, Australia is the third largest exporter in the Asia-
Pacific region and the fourth largest in the world
Australia exports 18.9 MTPA since 2011 with a value of
around $11.1 billion
Gorgon and Wheatstone are seen as large and challenging
mega-projects
Prelude is the world’s first floating LNG project to come online
in 2017
The Gorgon project
which was
supposed to come
online in 2015 has
been subject to
cost increases Source: Gas Strategies
Australian projects are under pressure from perceived high capital cost and falling oil prices
Gorgon LNG has hit
technical difficulties,
resulting in a
temporary
suspension of
exports
10 Global LNG Market
USA - Recent Project Approvals
January 2015 - US
Congress passed
bill HR 351 which
requires DOE to
process LNG export
permits within 30
days and US Senate
passed legislation
S33 which sets a
45-day approval
window for DOE
FTA countries
(South Korea)
require minimal
approval, non-FTA
countries (Europe
and Japan) require
DoE approval
Completion of
Panama Canal
widening in 2015 will
shorten journey for
large LNG carriers
from the Gulf Coast
to Asia by over
10,000km, saving $3
million in transport
costs per delivery
Increase in pace of non-FTA approvals by US DoE, driven by
US Congress (30 day timeframe) and Senate legislation (45
day timeframe)
US lawmakers debate the use of US shale gas as geopolitical
tool in light of deteriorating relations with Russia. Balancing
against US domestic supply concerns
Location Total Capacity (MTPA) non-FTA Allowance (MTPA) Sponsors FID 2016
Cameron LNG T4 & 5 Louisiana 13 13 Sempra Energy
Lake Charles Louisiana 15.3 15.3 Southern Union Comp.
Sabine Pass T6 Louisiana 17 17 Cheniere Energy
Corpus Christi Train 3 Texas 10 10 Cheniere Energy
Magnolia Trains 1-4 Louisiana 8 8 Liquefied Natural Gas
Elba Island Georgia 2.5 2.5 Kinder Morgan/Shell
Total 65.8 65.8
Total capacity of pending approvals for export to non-FTA
countries is 11tcf/year (231 MTPA) across 24 proposed
facilities – roughly the size of the entire global LNG
market in 2013
Most facilities require conversion only (brownfield sites) –
average capital spend $2 - $5 billion.
Sabine Pass construction began August 2012, first unit
completed late 2015, units 3 and 4 online 2016/7
Source: Gas Strategies
Commentary
Many projects will not ultimately be built. Why? local opposition; developer expertise;
expected returns or no off take market, as seen with Jordan Cove’s application by FERC
Major future Henry Hub price increases could make landed US LNG less competitive in Asia, if
LT Asian LNG prices $10-11 and Henry Hub $5
12
75 Tcf of
commercially
recoverable gas
announced so far
Area 1 (Anadarko Operated)
A Developing Mega Project
Area 1 has discovered 75+ Tcf Recoverable
Reserves and 100 Tcf of expected Gas In
Place
These discoveries rank among the world’s
largest over the last 20 years and have the
potential to elevate Mozambique to the third-
largest exporter of LNG in future years
Prosperidade
– 17-30+ Tcf and Reserve Certification
achieved
Golfinho / Atum complex
– 16-26 Tcf and completed Initial Appraisal
drilling
The first 2 trains will each produce 6 MTPA of
gas from the Golfinho/ Atum fields which will
be developed solely by Area 1
Area 1 awarded the onshore EPC contract to
CB&I/Chiyoda/Saipem consortium in May
2015
Anadarko have secured non-binding HOAs for
purchase of LNG with reported buyers from
Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and
China
Anadarko has a 26.5% interest and co-owners
include Mitsui E&P (20%), BPRL Ventures
(10%), ONGC/Oil India (20%) , PTT
Exploration & Production (8.5%) and ENH
(15%)
Source: Anadarko
HoA’s for over 8
MTPA have been
signed with Asian
buyers. SPA
negotiations
ongoing
50 MMSCFD
domestic gas
available from each
of first two trains,
with MoU agreed
with ENH
13 Area 4 (ENI Operated)
A Developing Megaproject
Exploration Activities
11 wells drilled so far
– 85 GIP discovered
– 32 - 34 Tcf exclusively in Area 4
– 100% success rate
Development Activities
Straddling resources
– Unitisation & Unit Operating Agreement signed with
Anadarko Dec 2015 for first 24 Tcf (12 Tcf each)
– Initial onshore development of 2 LNG trains, likely to
follow FID of Area 1’s Trains 1&2
Non straddling resources
– Initial FLNG ship in Coral field in Area 4, to be potentially
followed by a second
– Field Development Plan approved for 6 wells for 15 Tcf
of gas in place
– This FLNG plant is envisaged to deliver [3.4] MTPA at a
USD [10] bn cost
– Shortlisted FLNG EPC Consortia are (1) KBR, Daewoo
and KBM; (2) Chiyoda, Hyundai and Saipem; (3) JGC,
Samsung, Technip
ENI East Africa has a 70% interest (of which Petrochina owns
28.57%, so ENI has net 50%of Area 4 and Petrochina 20%)
and co-owners include KOGAS (10%), GALP (10%) and ENH
(10%)
Source: Eni
As Area 4 Operator,
Eni has quoted GIP
of 85 Tcf
China National
Petroleum Corp
(CNPC) completed
purchase of 28.57%
of ENI East Africa
(equivalent to 20%
of Area 4 for $4.2bn
on July 28th 2013
Area 4 is now owned
ENI (50%), CNPC
(20%), GALP (10%),
KOGAS (10%) and
ENH (10%)
BP has been
disclosed as
offtaker for [3.4]
MMTPA
14 Tanzania: Blocks 1, 2 & 4
LNG is currently considered the primary route to market for the recent discovered gas reserves (up to 50 Tcf is cited), given the
currently small domestic gas sector and the potentially high cost of developing offshore fields
Joint LNG facility highly likely and - we understand - is favoured by Government of Tanzania (GoT)
– Operators of each of the blocks - BG and Statoil, have established commercial parameters around the LNG facility and have
established an integrated project team led by BG
– Individual trains may be operated by respective offshore block operators although facility will most likely be jointly owned.
Likely run on a tolling basis
– Preferred site is at Lindi, but there have been major delays in gaining access to site which has impacted schedule
– Pre-FEED contracts awarded, FID not expected before 2019/2020 (Based on no site access at January 2016)
– Based on current commercial reserves, a two to three (2 - 3) train facility of [5] MTPA per train, will be possible, with potential
of up to six (6) trains at the site
TPDC has the option to exercise back-in rights of the licensed blocks and take ownership in the facility
Given discoveries to date there may be competing claims on the gas in place between LNG exports and supply to the domestic
market
– Addressing these issues is critical to determine the impact of LNG on the Tanzanian economy
Overview
LNG likely route to
market given
multiple gas
resource
discoveries since
2010
Gas resource
enough in time for
as much as six 5
MTPA trains, may
grow as exploration
activities continue
Several
legislative/contractu
al developments still
pending (e.g. Host
Government
Agreement)
15 West Africa: FLNG?
Overview
Cote d’Ivoire/
Ghana/Togo/Benin Recent discoveries show future FLNG
potential however domestic gas is
currently a priority
Nigeria The gas master emphasizes
domestic gas use for power.
However numerous existing
large and small stranded gas
opportunities that could be
monetised by FLNG are
available. Brass and OK LNG
greenfields are still being
worked on
Cameroon Government has been
backing an aggregated,
land based LNG project
(CLNG) - potential exists
for an FLNG bridging
project.
GoFLNG reached FID in
2015
Equatorial
Guinea Two, credible, mid-
scale FLNG projects
under consideration
Gabon Pre-salt gas potential,
exhibited by recent Damian
& Nyonie Deep discoveries-
current drilling activity is
targeting oil – some fiscal &
regulatory issues to be
resolved
Congo The Congo-B Government
and NewAge are pushing
for a small scale, near-
shore FLNG solution for
marine XII gas
monetisation
Angola Angola LNG is expected to
come back online in Q1
2016.
West Africa offers stranded gas and benign sea conditions
that favour FLNG, while smaller scale solutions that have less
than 3 MTPA are suited to both producers and buyers in a
low price and oversupplied market
Cameroon’s GoFLNG became the first African FLNG project
when it was sanctioned in 2015. The Golar vessel size is 1.2
MTPA. Offtake agreements have been finalised and
Gazprom is the buyer at an oil indexed FOB price
Fortuna FLNG in Equatorial Guinea with a capacity of 2.2
MTPA is anticipated to reach FID in 2016 after securing
offtake agreements with several buyers (according to
Woodmac)
Two more FLNG projects in West Africa may be announced:
one using Golar's second vessel (which is currently
unassigned to a project), in Equatorial Guinea, and one
utilising an Exmar-built boat in Benin
According to Woodmac the West African FLNG projects have
a potential breakeven price of below US$8/MMBTU (nominal,
discounted 12%). As a result West African FLNG is
apparently competitive with brownfield US LNG
Angola LNG is expected to restart in Q2 of 2016, rejoining
Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria’s Bonny LNG as African
LNG exporters Source: Woodmac;Standard Bank
West Africa has
stranded gas and
benign sea
conditions that may
suit FLNG
The lead project is
in Cameroon with
another front-runner
in Equatorial Guinea
16 North Africa: Egypt and Mauritania
Algeria was the first country in the world to export LNG in 1964 and is
currently Africa’s largest exporter of LNG. Despite recently adding capacity
Algeria’s LNG output was down by 4.6% in 2015. Most of Algeria’s LNG
exports are destined for France, Spain and Turkey.
Egypt stopped exporting LNG in 2014 as a result of a domestic gas crisis
caused by a supply crunch due to a decline in gas exploration and
production, as the gas price ceiling imposed by the government did not
incentivise production.
The discovery of approximately 17 tcf of gas by Kosmos Energy is in the
Greater Tortue Complex which includes discoveries in Ahmeyim,
Guembeul -1 and Tortue 1. A gas discovery of this scale has the potential
to transform the upstream landscape of Mauritania.
Securing a unitisation agreement between the Senegalese and
Mauritanian governments is the next step in the development of Tortue
West (Ahmeyim discovery). A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has
been signed, setting the basis for negotiations on a cross-border
development. The Zohr field was discovered by Eni in August 2015, it is in
the Shorouk Offshore Block in the Nile Delta and adjacent to the Cyprus
boarder. Initial estimates suggest the discovery could hold as much as 30
tcf of lean gas in place. The Idku and Damietta plants did not export any
cargoes during the year due to feedgas shortage as priority has been
given to domestic demand. Zohr could free up gas for export.
Eni plans to fast track the development of Zohr, utilising existing
infrastructure with plateau production of 2.7 bcf per day expected. Phase
one of the development could utilise spare capacity in Eni's El Gamil
facilities, 190 kilometres away. However, gas from the field is understood
to contain H2S and as such, the existing facilities will require modification.
Phase two of the development would require a new dedicated processing
facility.
Overview
1 Guembeul 1 in Senegal
Ahmeyim in Mauritania 2
3 Tortue 1 in Mauritania
4
Zohr in Egypt
1
2
3
6
The discovery is of
huge importance to
Egypt. Declining gas
output since 2011
has led to a
shortage of supply
and the country
began importing
LNG in 2015 to help
meet rising demand
In December 2015,
Eni concluded a gas
price agreement
with EGAS. It is
understood that gas
from Zohr will
receive a Brent
linked price of
between
US$4/MMBTU and
US$5.88/MMBTU
According to
WoodMac under
Mauritanian fiscal
terms, exporting 2.5
tcf of gas as LNG to
European markets
would generate
US$500 million
Mauritania
Egypt
Senegal
4
5 Idku and Damietta in Egypt
5
Skikda and Arzew - Bethioua in Algeria
6
Algeria
18 18
On 19th of May 2015, the Department of Energy (“DoE”) in South Africa released the Gas to Power Request
for Information (“RFI”). The DoE intends to use the responses received to design a procurement programme
for 3,126 MW of generation capacity.
Through the Gas to Power programme the DoE envisages creating a market where the demand for gas and
its supply becomes available simultaneously, this creates an opportunity for the development of the SA gas
industry to supply the demand created by the Gas IPP. In the absence of indigenous gas, gas will have to be
imported.
The RFI explains that the Gas to Power programme can be commissioned in either of the two ways:
– Bundled Project: a project for all the elements, where elements describes the different participants from gas supplier,
regasification facility, power generation facility and early power generation facility.
– Unbundled Project: a project for some, but not, all elements
Depending on the type of project chosen, these are the options available to the respondents
South Africa
The Department of
Energy is in the
process of finalising
the Gas Utilisation
Master Plan for
South Africa
Eskom will be the
sole Power Buyer of
Power Capacity
given their current
capacity as the
single buyer of
electrical energy
Subsequently, 170
RFI’s were received
in July 2015
(publicly announced
at the Gas Options
Conference in
September 2015)
Introduction to Gas to Power RFI
Bundled Project
Option 1 Single Project Company, made up of one or more related or unrelated entities as a
consortium, responding to provide a Bundled Project
Option 2 Not yet a member of a consortium but wishes to form/ join a consortium to
provide a Bundled Project
Unbundled Project Option 3 Responding to provide one or more Elements
Gas has been defined as any natural gas which occurs naturally underground or
unconventional gas such as shale or CBM
The other gasses include: syngas, underground coal gasification (“UCG”) or conventional coal
gasification as part of integrated gasification and combined cycle (“IGCC”), LNG, CNG or LPG
19 19
On 15th February 2016, Karen Breytenbach of the IPP Office presented to Africa Gas Forum on the 3,126 MW Gas to Power (”GTP”)
programme. Standard Bank’s summary of the speech is as follows:
GTP has resulted in the re-drafting of the Integrated Energy Plan and Integrated Resources Plan;
One of the main objectives of GTP is to unlock the opportunities which are presented by SA O&G upstream developments
(both offshore and shale), as the importation of LNG for GTP is potentially expensive;
Government will backstop the credit risks of Eskom’s PPA;
Developing a domestic gas market is very important, Department of Trade Industry has established a team to unpack
downstream industrialization and take forward developments;
A State Owned Company may be tasked with developing new domestic pipelines;
Government is currently conducting ESIA’s at all three ports (Saldanha, Richards Bay and Coega) as well analyzing
necessary servitudes and pipelines. The State will allocate a common IPP site for all bidders but if a bidder has its own site a
better site then they may use their own;
FSRU to be used initially (land-based terminals may be constructed at a later stage if the country never finds indigenous gas)
A bundled procurement approach will be taken, with enforced third party access to the FSRU and pipelines. The different
elements will not be permitted to cross-subsidise each other in a Bundled Project
Future IPP programs at the initial site (with the FSRU) will use the same FSRU as the initial IPP (as only one FSRU is
permitted per port)
Request for Qualification targeted to be issued in April / May 2016
Africa Gas Forum – IPP Office Speech
Overview
The IPP Office
made a speech
on 15th
February 2016
to the Africa
Gas Forum
DoE Minister
made a
Parliament
speech dated
17th February
2016, that
disclosed a
new
determination
for 1500 MW of
gas-fired power
relating to
Ankerlig,
Gourkiwa and a
new plant
20 20
Third party access to Pipelines and FSRUs
How will this be technically achieved? There are potential LNG carrier scheduling constraints and challenges if
the IPP is not operated at base load
How will this be commercially tendered? How will capacity be allocated to local gas market suppliers?
A consequence is the Bundled/Integrated group will be required to be unpacked into individual separate elements
(i.e. LNG purchaser, FSRU operator, Pipeline Operator, Gas Seller, IPP). Will NERSA have capacity to regulate
up to five separate entities in each Project?
Gas market development risk
Will the IPP Group also be allowed to sell gas locally (to other IPPs or industrial users)? It appears so. If there
were no other future gas supply bidders, the IPP Group could become the regulated gas seller/ marketer for the
geographic region
A State Owned Company is being targeted to develop new local gas pipelines for “delivering the gas to the
people”. Which State Owned Company will be responsible? How will this role interface with the allocation of future
capacity?
Necessarily, Day 1 FSRU and Pipeline capacity will be more than the capacity used to generate kWhs. Who will
pay for this excess capacity? Will the market take a risk on it? Or the State? How will the enabling regulations
and projects be developed?
Africa Gas Forum – IPP Office Speech
Implications
Several issues
arise from what
was a very
positive speech
by the IPP
Office, for
example
21 21 Our Schematic Understanding of the ‘’Bundled Group’’ @ Financial Close
Paul Group
Paul A Paul B Paul C Paul D [and Third
Parties post tender]
Paul E
LNG
Purchaser FSRU Pipeline Gas Sale IPP
Regional Gas Market
We understand the Bundled Group will be responsible for the separate ring-fenced companies
that perform the individual activities falling under the Project scope
TPA TPA
22 22 Our Schematic Understanding of the Bundled Group Post Indigenous Gas
Paul Group
Paul A Paul B Paul C Paul E
LNG
Purchaser FSRU Pipeline Gas Sale IPP
We understand the long term policy intention is to be able to replace imported LNG with
indigenous gas (shale or offshore) as and when it is available in sufficient quantities
Shale?
Offshore Gas? TPA
Paul D [and Third
Parties post tender]
Regional Gas Market
23 23
Multiple Scenarios (SBSA illustration)
The Potential Endgame?
Non-Shale Prospects
Shale Gas Prospects
Offshore O&G Prospects
Eskom’s fleet
Gourikwa
Mossel Bay GTL
Durban
?
Kudu IPP?
Ibhubesi IPP?
CBM potential being evaluated in the Region
– Botswana estimates a reported 60Tcf
– Zimbabwean potential est. 40Tcf
– SA est. approx. 15-40Tcf
Port Elizabeth Ankerlig
Pipeline to Area 1/4?
SA Gas Infrastructure Requirements:
– LNG import terminals
– OCGT plants
(fuel switching/CCGT)
– New CCGT plants
– Pipeline network
Key centres
Fuel Switch Peaker
New Gas
Potential New IPP Peaker
Gas-to-Liquids
Potential New Transmission
Gas Pipeline
Pande/Temane
Maputo ?
Secunda Johanneburg
Pretoria Potential Gas Pipeline
Coal-to-Liquids
Refined Product Pipeline
?
? ?
? ?
? ?
?
?
Richards Bay
Saldanha
Potential FSRU
?
Key
24
Namibia
NamPower’s open 200 MW power tender was awarded to Xaris Energy, including a FSRU at Walvis Bay.
More than 60% of Namibia’s power is imported from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia
Southern Africa is experiencing escalating power problems and key supply contracts expire in June 2016
The Xaris project will therefore reduce Namibia’s reliance on electricity imports from the SAPP
Fuel sourcing will be from global markets with worldwide spot price linkages
The project will have the following components, for which Standard Bank is acting as MLA:
– FSRU (supplied by Excelerate Energy);
– Port;
– Gas pipeline;
– IPP; and
– Grid Connection.
Gas to Power Option
Namibia imports
more than 70% of its
power from
Southern Africa
A LNG to power
tender has already
been conditionally
awarded in Namibia
The Walvis Bay LNG/FSRU to Power Project remains at preferred bidder stage
25 North & East Africa
Overview
Algeria’s Sonatrach supplies 640mcm of gas to Morocco
through the Algerian pipeline that passes through Northern
Morocco under a 10-year contract which started in 2011.
Morocco plans to import 2 MTPA of LNG starting in 2020 as
part of the phase one of its LNG import plan with the second
phase expected to be imports of 3.5 to 4 mtpa by 2025.
Egypt began importing LNG in April 2015 in order to ease its
chronic natural gas feedstock shortages (for power
generation) and has gradually increased LNG imports to a
monthly high of 540m Bcm in November 2015. Egypt’s
power sector is the largest consumer of gas and accounts for
57% of national gas consumption. At year-end 2015, Egypt
had two FSRUs located at Ain Sokhna. In a bid to free up gas
for consumption in other sectors (chiefly residential and
fertilizer), Egypt is expected to issue a tender for a third
FSRU in Q1 2016 (also at port Ain Sokhna)
Kenya plans to build a 700MW gas-to-power plant at Dongo
Kundu. Before the discovery of 1.8 Tcf of gas in onshore
block 9 by Africa Oil Corp, Kenya was floating an idea to
import 1 mtpa of LNG from Qatar Gas off the port of
Mombasa. As it stands, Kenya is expected to complement
gas from block 9 with imports of LNG into Mombasa.
Mauritius is also looking to import LNG and the Mauritius
Ports Authority has hired Royal HaskoningDHV to look into
possibilities for Port Louis to import LNG.
Mozambique may also attempt to import LNG from Matola
as a feedstock for gas-to-power while it awaits for domestic
gas from the Rovuma Basin to be transported by either
pipeline or FSRU
Mauritius is
contemplating
setting up a 135-150
MW thermal power
plant based on
CCGT technology at
Les Grandes Salines
in the Port Louis
harbor vicinity
Morocco is
understood to be
looking to build 6.3
GW of combined-
cycle gas turbine
(CCGT) power
plants and related
gas industries, all of
which would be
fuelled by LNG
imports at Jorf
Lasfar 2 FSRU at Ain Sokhna
Proposed Qatar LNG FSRU at Mombasa 3
4 Proposed FSRU at Matola
5 Proposed FSRU at Port Loius
Proposed FSRU at Jorf Lasfar
Kenya D.R.C
Angola
Mauritius Mozambique
Egypt
2
3
4 5
1
1
North Africa
East Africa
Morocco
26 West Africa
Overview
In Cote D’Ivoire, Endeavor Energy has partnered local
company Starenergie2073 for the 375 MW LNG-to-power
Songon IPP. Located close to Abidjan, it will include the
development of purpose-built LNG import infrastructure and
an FSRU. Why? Domestic gas production is declining.
While there is potential to develop more offshore reserves,
supply is insufficient to keep pace with power demand
In Senegal, state-owned utility Senelec has signed a
preliminary deal with Japan’s Mitsui and Qatar’s Nebras
Power to build an FSRU and 400 MW power station.
Senegal’s proposed LNG-to-power project is less advanced.
Senegal’s objective is to boost the country’s growth through a
steady power supply at a competitive cost (the country is
presently dependent on HFO and diesel to largely fuel its
power plants)
Ghana was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to turn to
LNG to meet its gas shortage. Three FSRU projects are
proposed along its coast at two separate sites. Quantum
Power and WAGL (Sahara/NNPC) have proposed separate
developments at Tema (each involving Golar), whereas
Endeavour Energy/GE are leading a development at
Takoradi (also involving Shell and Excelerate Energy)
Similarly, in Benin, London-listed Gasol which has signed a
long-term cross-border agreement to supply 2.8 million cubic
metres of gas per day to Ghana’s Volta River Authority from
an FSRU, which it plans to install in Cotonou harbour in
adjacent Benin
1 Proposed Gasol LNG FSRU
Proposed Quantum Power FSRU or WAGL FSRU 2
3 Proposed Endeavor Energy, General Electric and Finagestion FSRU
4 Proposed Endeavor Energy and Starenergies FSRU
5 Proposed Senelec, Mitsui and Nebras Power FSRU
West Africa Gas Pipeline
4
5
3 2
1
Senegal
Ivory Coast
Ghana
Nigeria
Benin
Togo
Source: Interfax; Woodmac; Petroci;Senelec; Standard Bank
Ghana is presently
the front runner in
developing LNG
import projects in
West Africa
Several projects are
under development
across the region
Quantum Power and
Ghana National
Petroleum
Corporation
(“GNPC”) have
signed Heads of
Terms for Tema LNG
which will have a
capacity of 3.4
MTPA
28 Conclusion
The 18 month – and continuing - trend of declining oil prices does not have a uniform impact on global LNG
developments. Whilst increased LNG supply (e.g. USA, Australia) and falling prices (e.g. Brent-linked or JCC) make it
hard for new greenfield LNG export projects, there is a market window for new LNG import projects
Southern Africa (SA & Namibia) have identified LNG imports as a means to relieve the regional electricity shortage and
are developing import projects. There may also be one FSRU project in Mozambique
Within East Africa (Mozambique & Tanzania), the combination of LNG demand increasing less slowly than expected
and LNG prices falling with oil prices have created challenges for achieving FID for LNG exports on the back of major
gas discoveries. Mozambique continues to have market advantages and is expected to achieve FID well before
Tanzania
Interestingly, West Africa may offer a combination of onshore, FLNG and FSRU projects spread across multiple
countries:
– Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Angola (more or less) are existing onshore LNG producers
– Cameroon declared FID on FLNG in 2015 and may soon be joined by Equatorial Guinea
– FSRU developments may occur in Benin, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal
Overview
2016 may define
Africa’s position in
the future LNG
market
There are multiple
ongoing export and
import
developments
across the region
with low oil prices
helping as many
projects as hinder
them
19 countries in
Africa exploring
opportunities to
import or export
LNG (including
existing players)
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