startup grind 020514
TRANSCRIPT
Moneyball
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship&
Investment Readiness Levels
Steve Blank www.steveblank.com@sgblank
Jim Hornthal@hornthal
Lean Startup
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development
+
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
Mentors
LaunchPad Central Software
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
LaunchPad Central Software
DataDataData
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
Weekly Progress
LaunchPad Central Software
DataDataData
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
Weekly Progress Experiment Scorecard
+
LaunchPad Central Software
DataDataData
Lean Startup
Business Model Canvas
Customer Development Agile Engineering+ +
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Hypotheses Experiments Data
Weekly Progress Experiment Scorecard
Data, Experiments, Trajectory, IRL
+ =
Data on Hypotheses, Pivots, MVPs, Metrics
Evidence and Trajectory
Cohort Leaderboard
Customer Interviews
Hypotheses to Test
Invalidated Hypotheses
Weekly Canvas Updates
Track All Hypotheses
Testing
Scorecard:9 way Kanban Board
with data
NASA
NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
• Formal Way to assess project maturity• Quantify Relative Risks• Data Driven• Adopted by NASA, DOD, FAA, ESA…
Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same for new ventures
Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same for new ventures
Emphasis is on data
Technology Readiness Level
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses
Product/Market Fit
Validate Right side of Canvas
Validate Left side of Canvas
Metrics that Matter
InvestmentReadiness Level
Remote monitoring device to prevent severe flares in pediatric asthmatics
Total interviews: 117
Lessons LearnedDecember 10, 2013
Basil AyishNoel JeeClare PakCharvi ShettyJingwei Zhang
FINAL PRESENTATION
Vision: A new way to create a magnetic compression anastomosis with improved outcomes.
Interviews completed: 90
DEV. 2:Michael HarrisonMichael DantyDillon KwiatElisabeth LeeflangMatt Clark
December 10, 2013
MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
37
FINAL CANVAS
MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
38
INVESTMENT READINESS LEVEL
Reimbursement / other revenue
Effective team?
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Unit economics validated
Cash to 1st inflection point
Plausible exit
Compelling clinical need + large market
IP freedom to operate & ability to block
Regulatory path certainty & difficulty
IRL 6
Vantage Realized is building a wheelchair attachment that increases mobility and reduces joint damage for manual wheelchair users.
Total Interviews: 88
Manufacturing cost ~$6
Most likely asset sale vs. licensing
Final Canvas
Strong emphasis on protective IP
End users don’t rely on magazines for new product information. The wheelchair
manufacturers are the best way to sell through DME or online retailers.
Investment Readiness Level
December 10, 2013
Mentor: Julie Cherrington
Team:Cindy Chang, PhDHobart W. Harris, MD, MPH David M. Young, MD
Preventing Hernias Before They Happen
Vitruvian
Customer Interviews : 74
Business Model Canvas
???
Reimbursement
Effective team?
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Unit economics Validated
Cash to exit
Plausible exit
Therapeutic Investment Readiness Level
Compelling clinical need + large mkt
Intellectual Property
Regulatory
Pharma interactions: 25Chagas KOL interactions: 25Veterinary interactions: 20Diagnostic interactions: 5
TOTAL interactions: 75 December 10, 2013
Business Model CanvasWEEK 10
INVESTOR READINESS
IRL6
First Pass Canvas
Low Fidelity MVP
Problem/Solution Validation
Product Market Fit
“Right Side of the Canvas”
“Left Side of the Canvas”
Business Case Defined
High Fidelity MVP
“Proof of Relevance” Path to Revenue Fully Articulated
Build KOL networkDeeper IP review and strategyDue diligence on partnersDeeper cost analysis to each data pointTeam talent gaps identified
Probiotics for Agriculture
December 10th, 2013Total interviews: 75
Week 10
Senior customer endorsement
Operational plan validated
Talent recruited
IP strategy and KOL network
“Proof of Relevance” defined
Timeline and cost to data points
Strategic fit in portfolio validated
Technology confirmed
First pass canvas
“God is not on the side of the big arsenals, but on the side of those who shoot best.”
Voltaire