STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF STATE FINANCENovember 1, 2010*

Shelly Paulk

Revenue Analyst

*Updated 1/5/2011, based on December meeting of the State Board of Equalization

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures

(In Millions)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

FY-04

FY-05

FY-06

FY-07

FY-08

FY-09

FY-10

FY-11

FY-12

FY-13

FY-14

FY-15

Actual Collections

Appropriations

$621.3

$772.8

$429.1

($104.3)

$428.3

OFFICIAL ESTIMATE$5,484.3m

$5,068.1m

$5,398.1m

Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 2.43%

Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 1.89%

Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 9%) and ROADS increases (10 Session)

Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2011 Act/Est – Normalized Ave. 2.26%

$5,517.8m

$253.8$156.9

$527.2

Revenue Estimates and forecasts updated 1/5/11, based on December BOE General Revenue Fund Estimates.

DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATE

$5,103.2$4,888.6

$2,1

17.2

$2,2

93.4

$2,4

64.0

$2,6

46.3

$204

.3

$217

.2

$228

.1

$245

.9

$333

.1

$399

.1

$394

.0

$372

.4

$1,7

36.0

$1,8

06.1

$1,8

79.8

$1,9

66.1

$197

.0

$202

.1

$206

.5

$211

.0

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

FY-2012 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015

Personal Income Tax

Corp. Income Tax

GP Gas

Sales Tax

Motor Vehicle Tax

General Revenue Fund SourcesBased on OSU Econometric Model Projections

(In Millions)Ave.7.7% Growth

Ave. 6.4% Growth

Ave. 4.3% Growth

Ave. 4.2% Growth

Ave. 2.3% Growth

BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE

BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS

FY-2013 – FY-2015

SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING

UPDATED 1/5/11 BASED ON DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATES.

$5,2

10

$4,8

06

$4,0

19

$4,2

74

$4,4

89

$4,8

29

$5,0

74

$5,3

27

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

FY-2008

FY-2009

FY-2010

FY-2011

FY-2012

FY-2013

FY-2014

FY-2015

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % Over Prior Year)

5.0%7.6%

5.1%(7.8)%

No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

6.3%(16.4)%

0.9%

ACTUALS*

Based on OSU Econometric Model projections

5.0%