state implementation plan for 8-hour ozone in san diego planning and technical support division may...
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State Implementation Plan for 8-Hour Ozone in San Diego
Planning and Technical Support Division
May 24, 2007
San Diego
Overview
8-hour ozone standard and classification
Ozone air quality and emission trends SIP framework Attainment demonstration Control strategy Staff recommendations
Ozone Health Effects Inflammation and irritation of lung tissue Coughing, chest tightness, and
increased asthma Increases in hospital admissions and ER
visits Increases in premature mortality in
elderly people with chronic lung disease and circulatory system diseases
Compromises immune system
8-hour Ozone Standard U.S. EPA promulgated a new 8-hour
ozone standard—0.08 ppm established classification for
nonattainment areas outlined emission controls and
planning elements
San Diego’s Profile
San Diego’s Ozone Classification
“Basic” nonattainment area Refers to 8-hour nonattainment areas
that met the former 1-hour standard “Basic” areas must meet Subpart 1
requirements of the Clean Air Act less prescriptive than Subpart 2
Air Quality Trends Attained 1-hour ozone standard in 2001 Significant air quality improvement
Design value decreased 15% over last 10 years
Days over the standard decreased 54% over last 10 years
San Diego Federal 8-hr Ozone
Design Value (1990-2006)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Design Value (ppm) 8-hour ozone standard
2006 DV 0.088ppm
Federal 8-hr Ozone Exceedance Days (1990-2006)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Exceedance Days
14 days over the standard in 2006
Sources of Ozone Forming Emissions
Main sources of NOx: passenger vehicles, ships and commercial boats, and off-road equipment
Main sources of ROG: passenger vehicles, consumer products, architectural coatings, recreational boats, and lawn and garden equipment
San Diego Trends
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
VMT (x100,000) Population (x10,000) ROG NOx
SIP Framework
Emission Inventory Attainment Demonstration New Weight of Evidence guidelines Control strategies Transportation conformity emission
budgets
Attainment Demonstration
Photochemical modeling for “basic” areas
Design value of 84 ppb or less is considered attainment
Must show a full clean year (2008) before June 15, 2009 attainment deadline
Supplemental Weight of Evidence Now Required
Recognizes uncertainty inherent in air quality modeling
Uses measured air quality and meteorological data
If design value is between 82-87 ppb, supplemental analysis can be used to demonstrate attainment
San Diego’s Attainment Demonstration
District photochemical modeling predicts a 2008 design value of 86 ppb
ARB staff modeled additional episode Coincides with
direction of San Diego’s findings
San Diego’s Weight of Evidence Analysis
Unmonitored areas analysis Modeled ozone exposure reduction Air quality trend data
Includes 30, 20, and 10-year trends of design value reduction
Emission trends Meteorology of recent years Shortened ozone season
Transportation Conformity
Establish budgets for transportation conformity
Pollutant 2008 and Subsequent Years (tons per year)
ROG 53
NOx 98
Control Strategy
District controls meet former 1-hour “serious” requirements
Existing controls provide necessary reductions for 2009 attainment
State triennial update is due in late 2007 and will include an “all feasible measures” assessment
Staff Recommendations
Plan is technically sound and meets applicable requirements
Staff recommends adoption of 2007 San Diego 8-Hour SIP and submittal to U.S. EPA