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STATE OF CANADA’SCONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT

3RD ANNUAL

JUNE 2012

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Manning Centre for Building DemocracyPO Box 1988, STN MCalgary, AB T2P 2M2

Tel: 403.255.8100Email: info@mcbd.ca

www.manningcentre.ca

Cover: William Kurelek, Manitoba Party, 1964 © National Gallery of Canada

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The Manning Centre for Building Democracy

is a conservative-oriented “do tank” that

equips future grassroots activists and

political leaders with the ideas, skills and

networks necessary to make an effective

contribution to Canadian politics.

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June 2012

The Manning Centre exists to help build Canada’s conservative movement.

That’s why I hope our 2012 State of the Conservative Movement Report will

help conservatives – by laying out our successes, our challenges and the

opportunities ahead.

We can’t afford to be complacent. Though we have a majority Conservative

government today, the Manning Centre is concerned with the long-term vision.

On that note, I want to announce the opening of Canada’s first ever “centre

of the conservative movement” – slated for this fall. Thanks to generous

philanthropists, a new state-of-the-art building will house the Manning Centre

and become a “must-go” destination for conservatives of all stripes.

Set in the heart of Calgary, it will contain a lecture theatre and a strategic

planning centre for campaigns, as well as the latest communications and video

conferencing technology.

It will also be the home base of our newly redesigned School of Practical

Politics which will help equip political activists with the skills they need.

This is not only a Canadian first and a notable achievement for the movement –

it’s also the culmination of a long-standing dream of mine.

Preston Manning CC

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This “annual report” on the state of the conservative movement includes three parts:

The report was prepared by Manning Centre Vice President Darrel Reid and Director of

Communications Olivier Ballou. The polling data was gathered by Dr. Andre Turcotte. The

electoral maps were created by data expert Mitch Wexler. The conservative infrastructure

data was generated by researcher Joel Wiens.

An overview of the electoral performance of conservative-oriented political parties, as well as a look at potential supporters.

BAROMETER POLL PART 1

ELECTORAL MAPSPART 2

CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTUREPART 3

An examination of the current state of Canada’s conservative-oriented think tanks, advocacy groups, training programs, communications vehicles, and fundraising capabilities.

An annual public opinion survey commissioned by the Manning Centre helps us understand Canadian attitudes towards the role of government and conservative ideas.

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To spread conservative ideas and

policies, conservatives first need to

know where Canadians stand. The

Manning Centre enlisted the help of

public opinion expert Dr. Andre Turcotte

to design this year’s survey. 2,067 online

interviews were conducted between

February 10th-20th, 2012 (a margin of

error of 2.4%, 19 times out of 20)*.

The past two annual Manning Centre

barometer polls found low levels of

confidence in government’s ability to

tackle big challenges. This year’s poll

confirms our earlier findings. A majority

of Canadians have lost faith in “big

government solutions to big problems”–

good news for those of us who want

governments to do a few things well

rather than attempting to do everything

and succeeding at little. When Canadians

are asked to whom they turn first if they

have an economic or social problem, a

majority first mention themselves, their

family, and their community before they

mention government.

So what, then, do these Canadians expect

of government? The most frequent

answer – across all regions and from

both men and women – was that while

people want to do things for themselves,

they want government to “help” –

sometimes by simply getting out of the

way, sometimes by leading as in matters

of personal and national security, but

most often by “facilitating, enabling,

and partnering with others to get

things done.”

*Full results are available at www.manningcentre.ca/poll

GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR

BAROMETER POLL

THE MANNING CENTRE BAROMETER is a snapshot of Canadian

attitudes towards government as well as conservative ideas. The first Barometer was

conducted in 2010, and the Manning Centre intends to repeat this public opinion

research annually in order to track Canadian attitudes over time.

7*Full results are available at www.manningcentre.ca/poll

More than three in four Canadians

believe that governments moving

into the role of “facilitator” or

“partner” would constitute a “positive”

development. This number ranges

from 66% in BC and Alberta to 82% in

Quebec. It also holds across party lines.

This poses the question: If not

government, then who? The charts

below show which non-governmental

entities Canadians think are best suited

to help tackle various issues.

14%

64%

16%

6%

SUPPORT FOR “GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR”

Somewhat positive

Very positiveVery negative

Somewhat negative

CHALLENGES OF AGING POPULATION

WHO SHOULD HELP GOVERNMENT DO A BETTER JOB?

DEALING WITH MORAL ISSUESHELPING THE LESS FORTUNATE

TOMORROW’S ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

15%

16%

27%

Not-for-profit orgs

Charitable orgs

Community orgs

15%

19%

21%

Community orgs

Religious orgs

Individual Canadians

11%

19%

21%

Interest groups

Individual Canadians

Community orgs

11%

15%

22%

Small business owners

Large corporations

Members of financial sector

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Our previous research suggests that

Canadians are increasingly aligning

themselves with a series of values

identified as “conservative”. In this

year’s poll, we wanted to test whether

this realignment was borne out in the

perceptions of Canadians. In other

words, how is “being a conservative”

viewed by respondents? The results

are mixed. While conservatives are

broadly seen as fiscally responsible,

they are also perceived as self-serving

and overly aligned with the interests

of business. What does this mean?

Conservatives have a lot of work left to

do to expand the movement. Solidifying

and expanding our support begins with

capitalizing on the clear conservative

brand image: Conservatives are seen

as competent managers of the economy

at the macro level. However, Canadians

remain skeptical of the government’s

ability to address their own issues at the

micro (personal) level.

FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLECLOSE-MINDED

WEALTHY PRO-BUSINESSTRADITIONAL VALUES

SELF-SERVING

STATUS QUO

FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLESELF-RELIANT PRUDENT SMALL GOVERNMENT

PRO-BUSINESSTRADITIONAL VALUES

HOW CONSERVATIVES SEE THEMSELVES:

HOW OTHERS SEE CONSERVATIVES:

The larger the word in the “word cloud” the more frequent the response.

BAROMETER POLL

MAINSTREAM CONSERVATISM

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DISGRUNTLED DEMOCRATS

In last year’s survey we observed that a large portion of the electorate has become

seriously disengaged from political parties, leaders, and elections. These voters do not

believe politicians share their worldview, enter public life for the right reasons, or focus

on the correct things once there. The results from this year’s survey were no more

encouraging.

In his address to the 2012 Networking Conference, Preston Manning outlined his concern

about the declining trust in politics and those who participate in it. He argued for “the

need for better training of political practitioners – in particular, training in ethical politics

and the ethical use of the new political technologies from automated voter calling to the

use of social media.”

FEELING TOWARD POLITICIANS

4%

1%

42%

21%

6% 34%

50%

14%

27%

1980

2012

Very favourable Somewhat favourable No opinion Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable

OPPORTUNITIES

• Canadians are ready to consider a new relationship with their government – that of “government as facilitator”

• Find ways to better communicate. For example, make the link between Canada’s overall economic performance and people’s own circumstances

• A host of potential supporters are within reach (see p.12)

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Conservatives continue to show

improved electoral results in the past

year, holding onto four governments

(Yukon, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland

and Labrador, and Alberta). There is an

opportunity for gains in Ontario when

the minority government in that province

falls. We are at or near a high-water

mark, and the challenge for conservative-

oriented parties in the coming years

will be to improve upon that result or to

prolong this peak.

However, all is not rosy. A family feud

in British Columbia may contribute to a

decrease in conservative representation.

Albertan voters have struggled to choose

which conservative vision to endorse.

In May 2012, the governing PCs won

another majority, although the Wildrose

Alliance Party made substantial gains. In

Ontario, the PC Party failed to penetrate

the Toronto area – including places

where the federal Conservatives had

made inroads. Finally, the newly formed

Quebec CAQ party has disappointed many

conservative-minded Quebecers.

VOTE SHARE

CONSERVATIVE-ORIENTED FEDERAL AND PROV. PARTIES (AS OF MAY 2012)

49.3%507/1028 total seats

10.5 M votes

38.8%SEAT SHARE

ELECTORAL MAPS

WINNING ELECTIONS tells us how well conservative-oriented political

parties are getting their message across and winning support. While the Manning Centre

Barometer analyzes the opinions of Canadians, electoral maps help us see how this

translates into votes.

*“Conservative-oriented parties” refers to the federal Conservative Party, as well as the primary Conservative party in each province, with the exception of Alberta where the Wildrose Alliance Party is also included. It also includes the BC Liberals, Action Democratique du Québec (ADQ), as well as the Yukon Party.

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PROV. ELECTIONS

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In order to win elections, conservatives

must continue to identify new supporters.

Demographic research commissioned by

the Manning Centre shows that there

are untapped pools of “near customers”:

voters whose demographics, attitudes

and past voting habits should predispose

them to support conservative-oriented

parties – but who do not consistently do

so. One way to identify these potential

supporters is to overlay maps showing

federal election results with results

from other elections and demographic

data. Last year we examined the

difference between federal Conservative

results and those of Toronto mayoralty

candidate Rob Ford. We also looked

at Conservative support among ethnic

voters in Brampton West. This year

we continued our search for near

customers, including a closer look at

the BC Lower Mainland (see p.13).

HOW TO SPOT A NEAR CUSTOMER

• Between the ages of 41 and 50

• High school or college educated

• Earns between $20 - $50K / year

• A significant group (21%) has only been in Canada between 4 and 8 years

• Even more likely than others to be self-reliant or turn to their families to find solutions to their problems

ELECTORAL MAPS

NEAR CUSTOMERS

URBAN GREENS

MORE NEAR CUSTOMERS

Age 25-34, single or married with no kids

Caucasian, educated, high income

Strong work ethic and family values

Eg. South Asian or Chinese Canadians

NEW CANADIANS BREAD AND BUTTER

Moderate income, often blue-collar

Vote on practical issues that directly affect them

• Fully one-third did not vote in the last federal election

• 58% are interested in politics (only 14% have no interest in politics)

• Tend to equate being a conservative to “being slow to embrace change”

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BREAD AND BUTTER

In the last federal election,

Conservatives continued to

increase their support in

the areas outside Vancouver

while making gains inside the

city. Both the NDP and CPC

gained from the hollowing

out of the Liberal vote.

2011 FEDERAL RESULTS

CHINESE CANADIAN

BREAD AND BUTTER

Increased support among

Chinese Canadians helped

Conservatives win the

ridings of Vancouver South

and Richmond.

Mapping “Bread and

Butter” (moderate

income, blue-collar)

Canadians paints a mixed

picture, with these voters

being from both low

income and high income

areas and having weak

party allegiances.

HIGH CPC SUPPORT

LOW CPC SUPPORT

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POLITICALACTIVISTS

COMMUNICATIONSCAPACITY

TRAINED HUMAN RESOURCES

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

MONEY

A steady stream of ideas

based on conservative values

Ways to get the message out, such as

newspapers, TV and social media

The means to fund all

of the above

Volunteers, staff, campaign

managers, and candidates

THERE ARE THE PARTIES, AND THEN THERE’S THE MOVEMENT Political parties organize majorities to win elections and pass

legislation. The conservative movement promotes conservative principles and

helps move the public onto conservative ground.

CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE

Modern political parties are primarily

focused on running and winning the

next election. Many of the ideas, people,

and communication vehicles for doing

so must come from the movement.

This is where the “conservative

infrastructure” comes into play –

including conservative-oriented think

tanks, policy centres, interest groups,

training programs, and communication

channels. While the main task of the

conservative parties is to win elections,

the main task of the movement is to

build and maintain the infrastructure.

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MONEY

CANADIAN LEGISLATURES AND ELECTIONS

$1.2B

AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE

MOVEMENT

~$3B

$30MMOVEMENT

$64MPARTIES

In 2009-10, approximately $90

million was invested in conservative

parties ($64M) and movement

activities ($30M)*. These amounts

are minuscule in comparison with the

annual expenditures of the American

conservative movement or the annual

investments in the legislatures and

elections Canadian conservatives

seek to influence.

*This number is based on data from charitable organizations that are required to declare their revenues, as well as the think tanks and advocacy groups that were willing to share their annual budgets. These funds come from sympathetic foundations, companies and individuals.

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IDEAS

The conservative movement relies on research institutes and

think tanks for policy analysis and to generate and analyze

ideas. A number of these have a conservative philosophical

bent, while acting independently of the parties. Surveys by the

Manning Centre of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of

conservative intellectual capital suggest a need to strengthen

conservative positions on the environment, arts and culture,

science and technology, and social assistance.

Aboriginal Affairs Family and Community

Agriculture and Agri-business Federalism and Intergovernmental Affairs

Arts and Culture Fisheries and Oceans

Budget and Taxation Health

Cities and Infrastructure Human Resources and Labour

Citizenship and Immigration International Cooperation

Commerce and Industry International Trade

Courts, Constitution and Charter National Defence and Foreign Affairs

Crime and Justice Public Service

Democracy Religion and Society

Economic and Political Theory Science and Technology

Education Social Assistance

Environment and Natural Resources Transportation

Substantial activity Moderate activity Limited activity

COMMUNICATIONS

A significant development in the past year has been the arrival of Sun News Network –

featuring many overtly conservative commentators. Also notable has been the increased

prominence of right-of-centre views on mainstream Quebec TV and tabloid newspapers. C2C,

the conservative electronic journal, also continues to serve an important function.

CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE

INTELLECTUAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

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TRAINING

The mission of the Manning Centre is to

equip political activists with the skills

they need to participate fully in Canada’s

democratic process, including winning

elections. In last year’s report, we

noted the lack of training opportunities

for conservatives. This year, we are

proud to announce the launch of our

newly redesigned School of Practical

Politics, whose purpose is to identify,

inspire and train the next generation of

political entrepreneurs.

The school will be based in a new state-

of-the-art facility set in the heart

of Calgary – the Manning Centre for

Democratic Education. Courses will also

be offered online and across the country.

OUR STUDENTS

• Volunteers

• Campus activists

• Constituency workers

• Campaign workers

• Those affiliated with think tanks and interest groups

• Future candidates

2011-12 PLANNED COURSES

• Student Activism

• Navigating critical socio-political intersections:

• Business-Politics

• Faith-Politics

• Economy-Environment

• Building & Managing a Grassroots Organization

• Political Fundraising and Investment

• Campaign Management:

• IssueCampaigns

• ElectoralCampaigns (Municipal, Provincial & Federal)

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The Manning Centre for Building

Democracy is a federally registered

non-profit organization founded in

2005 by Preston and Sandra Manning.

We embrace a vision of Canada strong

and free; a people united in common

purpose to serve our inalienable and

inherent right to life, liberty, and

property.

We believe that Canada’s purposes

and the needs of Canadians are

best served by the application of

conservative principles to public

policies – principles rooted first in

liberty, dignity, responsibility, and

tradition.

We envision a free and democratic

Canada where political entrepreneurs

have the courage, skills, knowledge,

ideas, and public support to

win campaigns and implement

conservative solutions to the

challenges of our times.

To identify, develop, and support

political entrepreneurs who can

advance our common vision of a free

and democratic Canada.

VISION

VALUES

MISSION

ABOUT US

The Manning Centre’s vision and mission are

informed by the following values:

• Individual liberty, dignity, and responsibility

• Free markets, freedom of choice, and limited government

• The wisdom of living within our means financially and ecologically

• Respect for Canada’s cultural, religious, and democratic traditions

• Recognition of the relevance and limitations of science

• Strong families and communities

• Care for those who cannot care for themselves

• Decentralized power and delivery of services

• Principled and prepared leadership

• An informed, deliberative citizenry

• Democratic citizen participation in the governance of our public affairs

The Manning Centre recognizes and accepts

various regional and philosophical dimensions

to Canadian conservatism. Rather than

championing just one of these dimensions to

the exclusion of the others, the Manning Centre

is committed to seeking common ground,

resolving contradictions, and finding ways for

conservatives of all ideological and regional

backgrounds to work together toward common

objectives.

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Watch our short film: “Build on the Tradition” which reminds us that small-c conservative principles are part of Canada’s heritage: www.manningcentre.ca/video

YOUR FEEDBACK

How do YOU see the state of the movement? How can we improve this report to make it more useful to all participants in Canada’s conservative movement? Give us your feedback at:

www.manningcentre.ca/feedback

VIDEO: BUILD ON THE TRADITION