state of kuwait 3rd intl fire & safety conference & expo 4-6 march 2014 strategic...

State of Kuwait3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo

4-6 March 2014

www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee 1

Strategic Operational Risk Analysis and Mapping

Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.)International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom


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Overview

• Define Risk• How does it apply to us?• Enterprise vs. Strategic Risk Management• Disaster Risk Reduction Model• How does this benefit us?• Case Studies• Discussion


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Risk Defined

…the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen….

Source: Merriam-Webster Dictionary


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Risk?• Disasters

• Tornados• Storms• Hurricanes• Earthquakes• And…


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Risk?• Everyday

• Office• Food Allergies• Water Systems• Here today• And…


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Risk in Emergency Services

• Policies• Procedures• Operational Guidelines• Safety Officers• After-Action Reporting• Lessons Learnt• Training


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What else?

• What systems can help us beyond the “obvious” risk?

• How else can we apply measures to reduce or identify risk?

• How do we address all potential risk?• Can we take this too far?• Are we adverse to all risk?


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Theory

Enterprise Risk Management• High level view to avoid risk• Internal protection against

risk• Risk identification and

classification• A view in time

Strategic Risk Management• Begins with a vision of the

ideal future• Improve awareness and

stakeholder involvement• Adaptive approach• Trending and adaptable


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Likelihood

Hazard (Impact)

Measurement


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Measurement


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Risk Paradigm?

• Business• Community(s)• Governments• Personal• What else?


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Disaster Risk Reduction

• USAID• Purpose• Intent• Value


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Disaster Risk Reduction

• Hazard– What– Flooding, Earthquakes, General Crisis

• Vulnerability– Susceptibility– Magnitude

• Coping capacity– Infrastructure– Skills and Resources


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• Hazard

• Vulnerability

• Capacity

Disaster Risk (R) = Vulnerability (V) x Hazard (H)

Capacity (C)

Source: United States Agency International Development (USAID)

Modeling


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Hurricane Katrina

• Critical Factors

– Lack of action locally

– Late decision making

– Socio-Economic Issues

– Politics

– Security & Corruption

– Media

– Change in orders

– Reality

– “Normal”

– Funding


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Space Shuttle Columbia

• Who’s in Charge?

• Priorities

• Politics

• Security

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ab/2003_Space_Shuttle_Columbia_disaster.PNG


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Hurricane Ike

September 9, 2008

September 15, 2008


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Risk Modeling

• Flood Planning– Demographics– Susceptibility– Social/Economics– Resources– Mitigation


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Factors


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Risk Modeling

• History (Areas prone to flood)• Topography• Geology• Known risk areas• Planning• Responsibilty• Mitigation


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Application

Risk Assessment

Actions/Mitigation Risk Management


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Measurement

• Can we plan for everything?• Education• Public information• Media• Assessment• Exercises• Extremes…


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Challenges

• Size• Scope• Factors– Social– Economic– Political

• Impact• Longevity


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Case Study

• Hurricane “Ike”• Date: September 1, 2008 – September 14,

2008• Total fatalities: 195• Highest winds: 143 mph (230 km/h)• Lowest pressure: 935 mb• Category: Category 4 Hurricane (SSHS)• Damage $37.5 billion (2008 USD)


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Ike’s Center4:00 PM CDT

• Hurricane (CAT 1)

• 90 MPH Sustained / Higher Gusts

• 23.9 N / 85.3 W (225 MI WSW of Key West)

• 957 MB / 28.26 IN

• WNW @ 8 MPH


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•INTENSITY: Range from Mid-Cat 1 to borderline Cat 4


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Hurricane Ike(Resource staging by track)

NHC AdvisoriesSept. 9 - 12

Sheltering CommunityStaging AreaEvacuating Area

Wednesday, Sept. 10, 4 AM

Tuesday, Sept. 9, 4 AM

Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 AM

Thur

sday

, Sep

t. 11

, 4 P

M

Frida

y, Se

pt. 1

2, 4

AM

1

2

3 4 5

SAR Staging and movement

Source: U.S. Geological Survey and USGS library.

Note:

367 Miles of Coastline

$7 Billon in Economic Value


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San AntonioExpected Hurricane Ike Impact

• Tropical Storm force winds– Duration: 18-24 hours– Onset: MID to 3AM SAT

• Sustained 35-45 MPH/G60mph

– Cessation: 6PM to 9 SAT

• Hurricane-force winds– Sustained hurricane-strength

winds not expected– Hurricane-strength wind gusts

possible: Noon to 7PM SAT

• Rainfall– Amounts: 3-6” with isolated 10”– Time Frame: Heaviest rains from

7AM SAT – 1PM SUN

San Antonio


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Landfall overnight early Sat. morningMatagorda Bay

High-end Cat 3 hurricane:125 MPH Sustained155 MPH Gusts


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Tropical Storm Force Winds>50kt WindsHurricane Force Winds


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Lessons Learnt

• Risk is evident• Risk Assessment (Identification)• Best Models will challenge• Agility/Flexibility• Sustainment/Resilience• Plan• Execute


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Measurements

• Post event assessment• Risk change• New Risks• Change factors– Short-term– Long-term

• Exercise/test/assessment


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Discussion

• Questions• Discussion• Input


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Thank you

Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.)International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom

The Fire Service CollegeMoreton in MarshGloucestershire GL56 0RH

Tel: +44 00 1608 812984Email: [email protected]: www.fireservicecollege.ac.uk

state of kuwait 3rd intl fire & safety conference & expo 4-6 march 2014 strategic...

Documents

risk risk identification

safety conference expo

state of kuwait

obvious risk

potential risk

risk paradigm

robert mckee2 slide

robert mckee12 slide